2021 MiLB news and notes...

[Stache Fan]

Thanks for the info.

What would you rather have - 5 top 100 guys or 2 top 50 guys?

My uneducated opinion is at this stage quantity may be more valuable than quality.

It's not so much that the low rankings and FV value reflect lower quality, it's that they reflect higher uncertainty. We have a really strong IFA pipeline and that shows up in us getting 3 teenagers on this list who nonetheless have a 50 FV, which is really hard to do and implies that their ceilings are actually quite high. (Dominguez, Alcantara, Vargas) At 18-19, the risk profile is so extreme that putting a FV value on a guy is basically saying you think there's star potential.

[BabyBombers]

8 prospects in the top 133 is good - with 30 teams, the average is only ~4 prospects per team.

That said, the Yankees don't have any in the top 50, so while they have quantity, the relative quality is lower. Which probably puts them in the middle of the pack overall... which lines up with the 18th system ranking at BA and 14th with Law.

I find it hard to believe, with the hype, Jasson will be out of anyone's top 50, maybe even top 20 soon enough.

[sjb23]

I find it hard to believe, with the hype, Jasson will be out of anyone's top 50, maybe even top 20 soon enough.

All the hype is fun but perhaps not fair to Dominguez. I'm purposely not joining the bandwagon until the kid has played a full season in professional baseball. maybe even two.

[Yankyfan]

All the hype is fun but perhaps not fair to Dominguez. I'm purposely not joining the bandwagon until the kid has played a full season in professional baseball. maybe even two.

Well get ready for next year. If they stay under the LT there is a good chance they sign Roderick Arias who has scouting reports off the charts. Some say Lindor like.

[billyhoyle]

All the hype is fun but perhaps not fair to Dominguez. I'm purposely not joining the bandwagon until the kid has played a full season in professional baseball. maybe even two.

Well get ready for next year. If they stay under the LT there is a good chance they sign Roderick Arias who has scouting reports off the charts. Some say Lindor like.

Wander Franco and Marco Luciano, the past two top J2 signings before Jasson have set the bar very high. If he isn’t a top 15 prospect in all of MLB after this year, it will be a disappointment. The best players are simply coming from IFA these days, and great things are rightfully expected this upcoming season.

[Yankyfan]

Wander Franco and Marco Luciano, the past two top J2 signings before Jasson have set the bar very high. If he isn’t a top 15 prospect in all of MLB after this year, it will be a disappointment. The best players are simply coming from IFA these days, and great things are rightfully expected this upcoming season.

Then in 2022 or 2023 if there is draft the Yanks have ties to Cuban prospect Brandon Mayea.

[billyhoyle]

Then in 2022 or 2023 if there is draft the Yanks have ties to Cuban prospect Brandon Mayea.

I expect that they have to institute a draft soon. The landscape is very different than even 10 years ago. The best prospects are mostly from IFA (just look at who the young stars are)-and it’s pretty unfair that the Yankees can just sign the top IFA prospects. I wonder how much sketchy stuff goes on behind the scenes with these academies/paying for access.

I like the current system though of course, and I think once a draft is instituted it will be almost impossible for anybody to have a 25 year run like the past 25 for the Yankees. Rebuilding will become a necessity for everyone.

[sjb23]

I wonder how much sketchy stuff goes on behind the scenes with these academies/paying for access.

I bet there's a lot of ball fields being built in these kids' home town, with the Yanks footing the bill in order to get a leg up (lol)

"If you build it, they will come"

BTW I'm looking forward to the Yankee game in Iowa this season

[sjb23]

All the hype is fun but perhaps not fair to Dominguez. I'm purposely not joining the bandwagon until the kid has played a full season in professional baseball. maybe even two.

https://nypost.com/2021/02/21/yankee...ominguez-hype/

“I don’t really think it’s fair,’’ Kevin (sr director of player development) Reese said. “He’s super-talented, [but] he hasn’t played a game here yet, so it’s hard to help him manage those expectations because he’s not gonna show up tomorrow and perform like a Mike Trout or Aaron Judge or Brett Gardner.”

[False1]

https://nypost.com/2021/02/21/yankee...ominguez-hype/

“I don’t really think it’s fair,’’ Kevin (sr director of player development) Reese said. “He’s super-talented, [but] he hasn’t played a game here yet, so it’s hard to help him manage those expectations because he’s not gonna show up tomorrow and perform like a Mike Trout or Aaron Judge or Brett Gardner.”

[sjb23]

That's hilarious. I didn't even notice Reese had included Brett Gardner in that group, lol

Nice catch.

[ymike673]

https://nypost.com/2021/02/21/yankee...ominguez-hype/

“I don’t really think it’s fair,’’ Kevin (sr director of player development) Reese said. “He’s super-talented, [but] he hasn’t played a game here yet, so it’s hard to help him manage those expectations because he’s not gonna show up tomorrow and perform like a Mike Trout or Aaron Judge or Brett Gardner.”

I don't know. I sure hope once he takes the field Jasson is better than our 38 year old 4th outfielder.

[Jace]

Definitely agree that putting Brett Gardner and Mike Trout in the same sentence is hilarious and absurd, and that we hope Dominguez is better than 2021 Gardner.

That said... Gardner does have ~40 career WAR, about the same as Paul O'Neill / Jorge Posada (~50 WAR is like the minimum to be in a HOF conversation, I think 60 WAR usually gets you in). A 40-WAR-in-Yankee-uniform career from Dominguez is higher than what you'd project for someone who hasn't played an MiLB game, no matter how talented.

Obviously we hope his peak is higher than Gardner's, just shows how long the road ahead of him is.

[geodork]

Actually, each player is quite different. Maybe he meant it as a tiered thing? Trout is a generational talent, Judge is a top 25 overall talent, and Gardner has been a championship team level starter for his career.

Maybe he meant "Lets pump the breaks on calling him the next Trout, let alone the next Judge, hell, he might not even be the next Gardner."

But where is the fun in any of that?

Also, Judge is much closer to Gardner than Trout. Except for injuries. Judge is much more like Trout when it comes to injuries.

[sjb23]

Maybe he meant "Lets pump the breaks on calling him the next Trout, let alone the next Judge, hell, he might not even be the next Gardner."

Hell he might even be the next Brien Taylor.

[sjb23]

Obviously we hope his peak is higher than Gardner's, just shows how long the road ahead of him is.

A very realistic take.

[Yankyfan]

Yanks should scoop up Keury Mella . A Milb deal would add a power arm who could be nice find.

[Yankyfan]

Vargas coming on strong!!
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...e-is-electric/

[Stache Fan]

Given 2 choices:

1 - Jasson puts up Gardner’s numbers in his corresponding age seasons
2 - Jasson’s current level of ceiling/uncertainty

Every single baseball executive chooses 1

[False1]

Given 2 choices:

1 - Jasson puts up Gardner’s numbers in his corresponding age seasons
2 - Jasson’s current level of ceiling/uncertainty

Every single baseball executive chooses 1

Really? The Yankees gave a 17 year old Dominguez $5.1MM with the hope that in 4 to 5 years he might become Brett Gardner?

I think they're playing roulette, not Pai Gow. I don't think they drop that money on a kid like that if not for his ceiling specifically. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

[sjb23]

Really? The Yankees gave a 17 year old Dominguez $5.1MM with the hope that in 4 to 5 years he might become Brett Gardner?

I think they're playing roulette, not Pai Gow. I don't think they drop that money on a kid like that if not for his ceiling specifically. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

Kind of off-topic, but does the scout that helped get Dominguez signed get a piece of that $5.1M?

10% "commission" would be $510K. Yeah, I'd certainly play up the 5-tool thing and float Mike Trout's name when I turned in my scouting report.

Having said that, if there's a #2 starter available via trade for Dominguez, I'd re-invest that $5.1M, simply because it's probably easier to find another young 5-tool OF prospect than it is to find a #2 MLB starter.

[False1]

Kind of off-topic, but does the scout that helped get Dominguez signed get a piece of that $5.1M?

10% "commission" would be $510K. Yeah, I'd certainly play up the 5-tool thing and float Mike Trout's name when I turned in my scouting report.

Having said that, if there's a #2 starter available via trade for Dominguez, I'd re-invest that $5.1M, simply because it's probably easier to find another young 5-tool OF prospect than it is to find a #2 MLB starter.

I'm pretty sure they're just salaried, and amazingly poorly at that. I remember years ago their were even lawsuits by scouts claiming they were not being paid minimum wage or overtime. But, I could be wrong or that may have changed. I would say though that overhyping a player to try and gain some commission would probably be a good way to shorten your career.

This is the old bird in the hand situation. Yes, a #2 starter has tremendous value and it's value you can capitalize on now. But, it will cost you more than an 18 year old prospect, and you're more than likely adding significant luxury tax considerations and/or only getting a short period of team control in a trade like that.

The allure of Ja$$on is that if he can approximate his ceiling you have something FAR more valuable than a typical starting pitching target both in terms of his everyday/positional value but even more so because of the long term cost control. That's a player you can build a ballclub around. Or, in another year or two, if he continues to develop as expected it's possible you could build a package around him for a #1.

[dpbddd99]

Article touting Vargas' potential.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...e-is-electric/

[Stache Fan]

Really? The Yankees gave a 17 year old Dominguez $5.1MM with the hope that in 4 to 5 years he might become Brett Gardner?

I think they're playing roulette, not Pai Gow. I don't think they drop that money on a kid like that if not for his ceiling specifically. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

18 WAR over his cost controlled years for a $5M investment? Oh yeah.

[False1]

18 WAR over his cost controlled years for a $5M investment? Oh yeah.

Actually I think you're understating the WAR for Gardner, no? I think it was 21.7 fWAR over his cost-controlled years (before he became a FA). And, that includes a lost season in 2012 due to an elbow injury. So I get your point, and I love Gardner and am in no way trying to demean his value. Especially in terms of ROI.

But, while getting that same production out of a $5.1MM signing bonus (plus whatever salary he'd accrue over his 7 cost controlled years) for Dominguez would be a good investment overall, I disagree that every GM would lock that in now rather than tolerate the risk/reward of seeing whether he can approximate his ceiling.

Outfielders that can be relied upon for 2.5 - 4ish WAR seasons (with an occasional boost) are valuable, but they can be found through more traditional means. Of the 53 OF that qualified in 2019, 29 had at least 2.5 WAR (more than half), and others were on pace to exceed that baseline on a rate basis.

What is hard to find are OF that can give you 6 - 8 WAR production, and the unicorns that give you 10 WAR production. When you can promote guys with that type of ability during cost-controlled seasons, it has the ability to alter the trajectory of a franchise in a way a Brett Gardner cannot.

Again, if Ja$$on becomes a Gardner-equivalent OFer by WAR then the Yankees made good and then some on their investment. I just disagree that 100% of GMs would sign up for that now. I bet many would actually let it ride and hope that he can be something more special.