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  1. #2276

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    A plethora of players who have 6 years of development time are major leaguers. Hell, Vlad and Soto who signed the period after have both been in the majors for multiple seasons. It has nothing to do with accumulating WAR.

    What players signed in the 2014 IFA are now major prospects? What players are on the cusp of breaking in the major leagues? The 2014 IFA period was a MASSIVE bust. Not only was it a bust but it prevented the Yankees from signing talent like Juan Soto and Vlad Jr the following season.

    The 2014 was a major bust. Here is an article talking about it.

    https://prospects365.com/2020/03/30/...signing-class/
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  2. #2277

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by billyhoyle View Post
    I agree with the differences you point to with science-itís why I say itís not a perfect analogy. Similarly, poker is a closed system with calculable odds so in my opinion an equally bad analogy. My basic point is if you make a prediction and are wrong, the prediction was wrong, not the result.
    Baseball has calculable odds as well. For each AB you can calculate the odds of a batter getting a hit against that pitcher. You can also calculate the odds of any batter on your bench getting a hit against any pitcher. You can also calculate the odds of the current batter and all the batters on your bench getting a hit against any pitcher the other team has available to bring in (or that is already warm).

    Taking it even further, you can string together future at bats and calculate the expected number of runs you will score in the inning. And the rest of the game. If you make the assumption that your opponent will always make the moves that give them the best odds of winning, you can yourself calculate what moves in any situation give you the best chance of winning.

    And you can do all those things correctly. Have the perfect model (meaning all the odds are 100% accurate) and use it to make the decision that gives you the absolute best chance to win the game every time, and STILL lose.

    The idea is over time you will win more than you would otherwise, but there is so much variance in the results you can't just look at the results and say that will tell you if a decision was good or bad. Mike Ford is still a bad PH decision even if he ended up hitting a HR.

    The arguments for if that was a good decision or not would be based on the numbers and arguments that could be made at the time of that decision. But those arguments can be made and decisions can be shown to be wrong.

  3. #2278
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePinStripes View Post
    That's pretty good for a BUC.
    Right. I don't want to go back to Romine but agree with Art, that's why I knew who. Rule 5 Draft is Dec 10th. NO MORE RHP. Get Ivan Herrrara (StL) or Mario Feliciano (MIL) or whoever our analytics feels is best. See if they can be our BUC.

    Bring back Eric Kratz for ST and have an open competition. Put our catchers in minor leagues on fast track development. He did NOT announce retirement and we can get him for 1M and a great teacher.

    Batting is important but defense and throwing the runner out is more. I watched a BoSox game and they stole 2nd all game and once was 3rd.

    I don't want to trade or spend for a BUC and be upset with Brian if he does this. Let Sanchez walk (nontender).

  4. #2279
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ppa79 View Post
    The 2014 was a major bust. Here is an article talking about it.

    https://prospects365.com/2020/03/30/...signing-class/
    Yep. This is not even debatable. And as CP noted it prevented us from signing some key players the following year. And then on top of everything they failed to sign Moncada when it made all the sense in the world to sign him knowing they would be limited in the IFA market in 2015.
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  5. #2280
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Yankees linked to prized Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano:


    https://nypost.com/2020/12/01/new-yo...moyuki-sugano/
    The Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan are expected to post right-handed pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano as early as this week, according to MLB.com.

    The 31-year-old righty went 14-2 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and 131 strikeouts in 137 innings in 2020. In eight seasons in the NPB, Sugano has posted a 2.34 ERA, and twice has won the Sawamura Award as the best pitcher in NPB.
    I'd be surprised if the interest is genuine.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  6. #2281

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    Yankees linked to prized Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano:


    https://nypost.com/2020/12/01/new-yo...moyuki-sugano/


    I'd be surprised if the interest is genuine.
    Sigano-san is probably a Hal payroll busting player.

    Here is an excerpt from two years ago....based on that Iíd be careful about signing:

    ď Sugano works off a fastball that sits 90-92 and tops out at 94 MPH.

    In later looks his fastball was sitting 89-91, but he still generates strong armside run and gets good sink on his two seamer. Itís lively enough to be an average pitch at present, though he has lost a tick on his heater and canít really afford to lose any more velocity. His bread and butter is mixing that fastball with a pair of slider variations, both plus.Ē

  7. #2282

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    IFA, amateur draft, does it matter? The problem is starting pitching and the Yankees have been bad at drafting, acquiring, developing, signing as a free agent, trading for, and basically getting the most out of starting pitchers at any and all levels.

    Bats, Cashman can do but the rotation hasn't been a strength compared to other playoff teams since... I don't even know when. Probably the early 2000's.

  8. #2283

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    Yankees linked to prized Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano:


    https://nypost.com/2020/12/01/new-yo...moyuki-sugano/


    I'd be surprised if the interest is genuine.
    I don't know too much about him. Darvish and Tanaka got all the hype when they came here from Japan and with hype comes big money.

    But Kuroda was a great pitcher here too. The Yankees need to find the next Kuroda.
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  9. #2284
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePinStripes View Post
    That's pretty good for a BUC.
    By what measure? That's terrible numbers for any player. It's well below replacement level. Kratz and Higgy were both a lot better.
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  10. #2285

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    IFA, amateur draft, does it matter? The problem is starting pitching and the Yankees have been bad at drafting, acquiring, developing, signing as a free agent, trading for, and basically getting the most out of starting pitchers at any and all levels.

    Bats, Cashman can do but the rotation hasn't been a strength compared to other playoff teams since... I don't even know when. Probably the early 2000's.
    No, that's not a fair assessment. I think Cashman hasn't done a great job for the most part either, but in 2009 he signed pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and Teixeira. Then of course Cole and and Tanaka as free agents. The big problem is they haven't been able to develop their own pitchers from their minor league system. He needs to bring a number #2 SP next to Cole somehow.

  11. #2286

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Higgy was a fine replacement. He's a far superior defender and framer, and put up better offensive numbers than Romine ever has. The problem isn't the BUC, it's the C.
    Weíre in agreement that the primary catcher is the main issue. Regarding the BUC you are moving the goal line. I didnít say anything about Higgy. My point is Romine was one of the best BUC in the game and was under appreciated here.

  12. #2287
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    We’re in agreement that the primary catcher is the main issue. Regarding the BUC you are moving the goal line. I didn’t say anything about Higgy. My point is Romine was one of the best BUC in the game and was under appreciated here.
    From 2013 - 2017 Austin Romine was statistically one of the worst position players in all of MLB and a perenial DFA candidate and was rightly roasted on this board.

    In 2018 he made significant offensive strides to go from horrific to slightly below average and did indeed become a decent BUC for 18 & 19 seasons.

    He signed for starter money in 2020 with the Tigers and immediately regressed to 2013 - 2017 levels posting a 58 OPS+.

    I'm glad he made contributions to 18/19 for the Yankees, I'm also glad the Yankees didn't match the Tigers offer to keep him.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  13. #2288
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    We’re in agreement that the primary catcher is the main issue. Regarding the BUC you are moving the goal line. I didn’t say anything about Higgy. My point is Romine was one of the best BUC in the game and was under appreciated here.
    I'm not moving the goal line. He had a couple good offensive years but more bad years. He was statistically one of the worst in baseball prior to those two good seasons. If you want to just focus on those two good years, fine, but his career numbers to date look like a wRC+ 69 and a 0.2 fWAR. He's just not good, even for a backup.
    Calmer than you are

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  14. #2289

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken711 View Post
    No, that's not a fair assessment. I think Cashman hasn't done a great job for the most part either, but in 2009 he signed pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and Teixeira. Then of course Cole and and Tanaka as free agents. The big problem is they haven't been able to develop their own pitchers from their minor league system. He needs to bring a number #2 SP next to Cole somehow.
    Yeah, and do you remember what happened that post season? The Yankees had to take advantage of all the extra scheduled days off to go with a 3 man rotation. They signed a #1 and a #2 for huge money that off-season* and they still could only muster 3 reliable starters. And yes, you are right, that is their biggest success story of the last 10 or 15 years.

    *The #2 was fairly unimpressive as a #2 during his time as a Yankee and was significantly better everywhere else before and after (not counting the Phillies at the end of his career) similar to Sonny Gray. There is also a number of people like Paxton who they were never able to get the most out of their stuff and coax to take that next step. I mean if Cole didn't go to Houston first, would he be Cole right now?

  15. #2290
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    Yeah, and do you remember what happened that post season? The Yankees had to take advantage of all the extra scheduled days off to go with a 3 man rotation. They signed a #1 and a #2 for huge money that off-season* and they still could only muster 3 reliable starters. And yes, you are right, that is their biggest success story of the last 10 or 15 years.

    *The #2 was fairly unimpressive as a #2 during his time as a Yankee and was significantly better everywhere else before and after (not counting the Phillies at the end of his career) similar to Sonny Gray. There is also a number of people like Paxton who they were never able to get the most out of their stuff and coax to take that next step. I mean if Cole didn't go to Houston first, would he be Cole right now?
    Which is why people need to pump the brakes on the Matt Blake lovefest.

    Let's see results first after years of SP failures. My guess is it's not any one coach and it's organizationally extremely dysfunctional. Maybe the Briend/Blake combo will make things better but still very much TBD.
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  16. #2291
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    FWIW Carton on WFAN says Yanks going after Mentioned Japanese pitcher as well as James McCann..LOL No clue of his sources?

  17. #2292
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankyfan View Post
    FWIW Carton on WFAN says Yanks going after Mentioned Japanese pitcher as well as James McCann..LOL No clue of his sources?
    WFAN hired that guy back?
    He finally met himself, coming down an up-staircase, and the encounter was crushing.

  18. #2293
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JDPNYY View Post
    WFAN hired that guy back?
    Yep. Afternoon Drive with Evan Roberts.

  19. #2294

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankyfan View Post
    Yep. Afternoon Drive with Evan Roberts.
    With Evan? Wow. It seems like a huge personality clash waiting to happen. I don't see Evan enjoying his antics like Boomer.

  20. #2295
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    With Evan? Wow. It seems like a huge personality clash waiting to happen. I don't see Evan enjoying his antics like Boomer.
    Bumpy for sure but so far a good listen IMO.

  21. #2296
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankyfan View Post
    Bumpy for sure but so far a good listen IMO.
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  22. #2297

    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Evan has been my favorite on the station for a while, but I just don't listen to the radio much since I'm almost never in the car anymore.

    Carton... I was never really a fan of. He didn't bother me but he just seemed better paired with Boomer. I just honestly can't see him able to hold his own in a sports conversation with Evan. I can also see him dominating with nonsense so that we don't get to hear Evan's opinion much.

    I'll try it out and stream it today.

  23. #2298
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    Re: 2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankyfan View Post
    FWIW Carton on WFAN says Yanks going after Mentioned Japanese pitcher as well as James McCann..LOL No clue of his sources?
    WRT Sugano, he was probably just referencing that NY Post article that was pretty much click bait. It was the classic "he'd be an option for a team looking to fill an rotation spot, and well the Yankees could be one of those teams because they participate in baseball." And if they tender a contract to Sanchez as everyone expects, I can't see them signing McCann.
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