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  1. #601
    I.P. Standing Krall's Avatar
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JDPNYY View Post
    Please please please please please. I'm begging... please stop suggesting DJ to 1B.


    It would be better to have Gleyber at 1B.
    You're right, let's make him DH instead

    Quote Originally Posted by hhill View Post
    DJ is 32. In a couple of years he wont be the DJ of today. He deserves to get paid and if he gets paid well, this would give him perhaps a longer life in the majors.

    GT at 3rd is a risk. DJ at first is not.

    Whatever else we do , we need a shortstop IMO
    I'd say give him George's ransom. He's a pure hitter, grinder, low injury, top of the order guy. We haven't had a player like this since ah yeah that other DJ who owns the Marlins
    10-08-20 not pitching for 14 days, Jordan Montgomery erased the sins of management's game 2 debacle & saved our season for another day!

  2. #602

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    seems like everybody slimmed down and toned up during the off season except for Gleyber. He needs to do this before next season (and work on his focus) if he's going to play SS again.

  3. #603

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sjb23 View Post
    I think 4yrs/$88M is a very reasonable (and almost a final) offer. Maybe add in a contract with Jersey Mikes as additional incentive? lol.

    Will any team beat that? He may be more valuable to the Yanks than to other contending teams, but I'm sure a line in the sand will be drawn somewhere.
    It's so hard to predict this market with all the Covid problems.

    Could the Dodgers go after DJ for 3B with Turner being a free agent and getting into his mid to late 30s? At some point the Rangers are going to go full ARod mode again and give someone a stupid contract to go with their new stadium. If the DH stays around do the Mets and their new uber wealthy owner have interest in DJ and moving Cano to full time DH? If the Phillies lose Didi do they move Segura back to SS and go after DJ?

    It only takes one other team to make a bidding war.

  4. #604
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JLJ81 View Post
    It's so hard to predict this market with all the Covid problems.

    Could the Dodgers go after DJ for 3B with Turner being a free agent and getting into his mid to late 30s? At some point the Rangers are going to go full ARod mode again and give someone a stupid contract to go with their new stadium. If the DH stays around do the Mets and their new uber wealthy owner have interest in DJ and moving Cano to full time DH? If the Phillies lose Didi do they move Segura back to SS and go after DJ?

    It only takes one other team to make a bidding war.
    I totally agree with you and your entire post. Nevertheless, the Yanks will obviously have to decide what they can (and want to) pay DJ. As you alluded to, a bidding war is won when that line in the sand is reached.

    Also, IMO the Yanks will have to work fast, so "sizing up the market" might not be possible in DJ's case. If they want DJ bad enough, they'll be transparent about that line in the sand, because there will be lots of work to do if DJ walks.
    "Somebody once asked me if I ever went up to the plate trying to hit a home run. I said, 'Sure, every time.'" -- Mickey Mantle

  5. #605

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Fast forward to the press conference to announce Gardner's $44M/3 year contract and new role as a starting pitcher...

    "We're not in the market for a 2nd basemen. It's just not in the budget this year. Tyler Wade will be our 2nd basemen to start the year." - Cashman.

  6. #606
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Each team is charged roughly $15.5 million for items such as insurance and pension and budgets about $3 million for in-season call-ups. Add that all up, and the Yanks are at $171 million. So if the budget is $200 million they will have about $29 million to spend. So think what that would mean if LeMahieu even takes the $18.9 million qualifying offer. What if he costs $20 million a year or $25 million per season?
    How can the Yankees create more payroll space? Stanton is untradeable (seven years at $218 million with a no-trade clause he will not waive). The Yanks do not want to trade Cole. Severino, after missing most of the past two years, is probably not tradeable. Hicks and Ottavino likely cannot be traded without taking money back. Would a team take the two years at $32 million of Chapman or the two years at $27 million (assuming his 2022 option is picked up) of Britton — and would the Yanks want to break up their endgame?

    Yankees great: Trading Luke Voit is first step to fix infield
    The Yanks can non-tender or trade Sanchez, which would save about $5 million, but could they find his replacement for significantly less. Torres and Voit are both first-year arbitration players, looking at $3 million-ish. They are attractive, but also cost-friendly pieces for the Yankees.

    You see the budget-planning issues: The Yanks are locked into a lot of money, much of which is either near untradeable or untradeable without taking money back. They can move some players, but they are core talents and it would mean rethinking the roster construction. Then there are questions if Tanaka would come back for, say, $10 million (or is that even too much for this Yankees exercise)? Would Gardner return for, say, $5 million (or is that even too much for this Yankees exercise)?
    https://nypost.com/2020/10/17/yankee...split-sherman/
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  7. #607

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    MLBtraderumors put out their estimates for arbitration. They have 3 numbers for each player because they aren't sure how it is calculated.

    Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
    Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
    Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

    Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
    Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
    Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
    Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
    Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
    Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
    Tommy Kahnle – $2.7MM / $2.7MM / $2.7MM
    Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
    Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
    Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
    Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
    Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM


    I think the method 2 will be used and that is more than Sherman is talking about.

  8. #608

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Its interesting though because its hard to figure which team's will be looking to or open to adding salary. I mean every single team lost or made less than they were expecting to. And the offseason begins in a time when we have no idea what 2021 will hold in terms of fan attendance and revenues. I wonder if the Yankees get DJ to re-sign on a Hicks style of contract where the years are longer than you'd expect but the average is lower.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the offseason strategy is to get DJ back on a decent aav, dumpster dive for bargains and look for trades for pitching.

  9. #609
    I.P. Standing Krall's Avatar
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Yankees can't survive without DJ. Cashman and Boone will have to take a pay cut.
    10-08-20 not pitching for 14 days, Jordan Montgomery erased the sins of management's game 2 debacle & saved our season for another day!

  10. #610
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Krall View Post
    Yankees can't survive without DJ. Cashman and Boone will have to take a pay cut.
    The Yankees can't survive without Steinbrenner money covering up Cashman's many mistakes. This team is going backwards in 2021.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  11. #611
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    The Yankees can't survive without Steinbrenner money covering up Cashman's many mistakes. This team is going backwards in 2021.
    History repeating itself. Cashman saddled us with bloated, immovable contracts in the past. He learned that from George though.

    I didn’t see mention of Happ, isn’t it his walk year? So give his salary to DJ as a raise on top of his old salary. We could also steal a play from the Mets and pay him like Bonilla for the next 20 years

    What’s up with th Astro announcers? They gave Correa player of the game for driving in 2 runs...in a loss! The most bias announcers I ever heard.
    10-08-20 not pitching for 14 days, Jordan Montgomery erased the sins of management's game 2 debacle & saved our season for another day!

  12. #612
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Krall View Post
    History repeating itself. Cashman saddled us with bloated, immovable contracts in the past. He learned that from George though.

    I didn’t see mention of Happ, isn’t it his walk year? So give his salary to DJ as a raise on top of his old salary. We could also steal a play from the Mets and pay him like Bonilla for the next 20 years

    What’s up with th Astro announcers? They gave Correa player of the game for driving in 2 runs...in a loss! The most bias announcers I ever heard.
    He includes Happ in his calculation:

    LeMahieu, Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.A. Happ, James Paxton and Brett Gardner come off the books as free agents, plus the Yanks will not tender a contract to Tommy Kahnle, who after Tommy John surgery is likely to miss all or most of what would be his walk year in 2021. That group represented just north of $100 million in 2020 toward the luxury-tax payroll. So that is a big savings. But …

    The Yanks have seven players — Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino and Adam Ottavino — signed for next year at $117.5 million. They have 11 arbitration-eligible players, not counting Kahnle, with the likelihood that Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit will slip above the Super Two threshold while Miguel Andujar and Kyle Higashioka will not. That group — which also includes (among others) Chad Green, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela — should come in at around $34 million, but to be budgetary safe, let’s say $35 million.

    Each team is charged roughly $15.5 million for items such as insurance and pension and budgets about $3 million for in-season call-ups. Add that all up, and the Yanks are at $171 million. So if the budget is $200 million they will have about $29 million to spend. So think what that would mean if LeMahieu even takes the $18.9 million qualifying offer. What if he costs $20 million a year or $25 million per season?
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  13. #613

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    If the cost of retaining DJ is non tendering Sanchez or trading Hicks I would do that in a heart beat.

  14. #614
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    If the cost of retaining DJ is non tendering Sanchez or trading Hicks I would do that in a heart beat.
    Absolutely.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  15. #615

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Also, I don't see Ellsbury as counting. They stated they were going to try not to pay him. Even if they end up losing that battle, I don't think Ellsbury counts against last years budget in their mind.

    By my count...

    LeMahieu, Tanaka, Happ, Paxton and Gardner cost them $74.5 million combined. Gardner's buyout will cost them $2.5 million next year, so that $72 million. Arbitration raises of about $22M gets you to $50M. DJLM gets $20M-$25M. Typically they save $10M for deadline deals so you are down to $15M-$20M left just by signing DJLM.

    Tanaka could eat that up all himself. And remember, the theme of the exit presser was "We are close." I don't think they are going for huge changes to significantly remake in the roster. It might just be DJLM and 1 pitcher.

  16. #616
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    Also, I don't see Ellsbury as counting. They stated they were going to try not to pay him. Even if they end up losing that battle, I don't think Ellsbury counts against last years budget in their mind.

    By my count...

    LeMahieu, Tanaka, Happ, Paxton and Gardner cost them $74.5 million combined. Gardner's buyout will cost them $2.5 million next year, so that $72 million. Arbitration raises of about $22M gets you to $50M. DJLM gets $20M-$25M. Typically they save $10M for deadline deals so you are down to $15M-$20M left just by signing DJLM.

    Tanaka could eat that up all himself. And remember, the theme of the exit presser was "We are close." I don't think they are going for huge changes to significantly remake in the roster. It might just be DJLM and 1 pitcher.
    At this point I would take that assuming they also made some trades for pitching and got rid of some of the dead weight on the roster, especially in the bullpen. But that’s unlikely. ThE pRIcEs aRe tOO hIgH and Cashman will keep shoving Cessa/Nelson/Loaisiga and the likes down our throat.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  17. #617

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    At this point I would take that assuming they also made some trades for pitching and got rid of some of the dead weight on the roster, especially in the bullpen. But that’s unlikely. ThE pRIcEs aRe tOO hIgH and Cashman will keep shoving Cessa/Nelson/Loaisiga and the likes down our throat.
    Yeah...

    And this is if we are lucky and they keep payroll the same. If they cut it...

    But the bullpen is odd. The Yankees used to excel at developing bullpen arms but a few years ago they went all in on spending. I kind of get it. It is easier to buy 3 bullpen arms and get 200 top IP out of them then to develop/acquire a top starter who gives you 200 IP for roughly the same price but their starting pitching has just been a string of starters who “could be great if…”

  18. #618
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    He includes Happ in his calculation:
    I guess I'm not totally following. I thought once they reset getting under the salary cap they were willing to go over? They're on a crash coarse to do so the next few years anyway with Judge and Co getting raises.

    There's still the ability to defer payments to players and then a new CBA and more Covid-19 implications.

    Regardless, DJ is a must sign. Outside of him there's no reliable offense sans Torres.
    10-08-20 not pitching for 14 days, Jordan Montgomery erased the sins of management's game 2 debacle & saved our season for another day!

  19. #619

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    Also, I don't see Ellsbury as counting. They stated they were going to try not to pay him. Even if they end up losing that battle, I don't think Ellsbury counts against last years budget in their mind.

    By my count...

    LeMahieu, Tanaka, Happ, Paxton and Gardner cost them $74.5 million combined. Gardner's buyout will cost them $2.5 million next year, so that $72 million. Arbitration raises of about $22M gets you to $50M. DJLM gets $20M-$25M. Typically they save $10M for deadline deals so you are down to $15M-$20M left just by signing DJLM.

    Tanaka could eat that up all himself. And remember, the theme of the exit presser was "We are close." I don't think they are going for huge changes to significantly remake in the roster. It might just be DJLM and 1 pitcher.
    If they lose the case with Ellsbury the Yankees will also have to pay him a 5 million dollar buyout for next season. So they could owe him $26,142,857 in total.

  20. #620
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    If the cost of retaining DJ is non tendering Sanchez or trading Hicks I would do that in a heart beat.
    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    Absolutely.
    It goes without saying.

  21. #621
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JLJ81 View Post
    MLBtraderumors put out their estimates for arbitration. They have 3 numbers for each player because they aren't sure how it is calculated.

    Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
    Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
    Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

    Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
    Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
    Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
    Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
    Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
    Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
    Tommy Kahnle – $2.7MM / $2.7MM / $2.7MM
    Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
    Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
    Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
    Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
    Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM


    I think the method 2 will be used and that is more than Sherman is talking about.
    Judge: over-paid, all three models. Sanchez ridiculously overpaid--guy rarely makes contact with his bat, and far too often fails to make contact also with his glove.

  22. #622
    New Murderer's Row False1's Avatar
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bauer View Post
    Judge: over-paid, all three models.
    Demonstrably false. Let me ask you this... how many teams would line up to try and sign Aaron Judge for a 1/$10MM contract?

    30 is the correct answer, in case you were wondering.

    I get that there's frustration that he's had injury issues for 3 years in a row, but your position is ridiculous.

  23. #623

    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    Demonstrably false. Let me ask you this... how many teams would line up to try and sign Aaron Judge for a 1/$10MM contract?

    30 is the correct answer, in case you were wondering.

    I get that there's frustration that he's had injury issues for 3 years in a row, but your position is ridiculous.
    Yup even if you think he's only a half season player he'll still give you a 3.6+ WAR in that time which makes him a top 50 player production/value wise despite having played half the games. So you could place a replacement level player in RF for the other half of the season and still get good production for the year.

  24. #624
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    Demonstrably false. Let me ask you this... how many teams would line up to try and sign Aaron Judge for a 1/$10MM contract?

    30 is the correct answer, in case you were wondering.

    I get that there's frustration that he's had injury issues for 3 years in a row, but your position is ridiculous.
    Now may be the last chance to “sell high”. Send him to the Reds for Castillo and a lefty bullpen guy like Garrett. It’s something like this or he will be another massive payroll liability when he gets his huge contract.
    Speak softly but carry a big stick.

  25. #625
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    Re: 2020-2021 offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714 View Post
    Yup even if you think he's only a half season player he'll still give you a 3.6+ WAR in that time which makes him a top 50 player production/value wise despite having played half the games. So you could place a replacement level player in RF for the other half of the season and still get good production for the year.
    Judge's potential is the perfect example of Tantalus' punishment. You can see the goodie but every time you reach for it, it's out of reach. If all we going to get every season from Judge is only 1/3 of a season, you cannot justify making him the centerpiece of this team.

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