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  1. #1601
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Notwithstanding the absence of the Yankees, the latter stages of the post-season were quite enjoyable. First, the cheating, arrogant Astros gets beaten in the ALCS and then the arrogant Rays get beaten in the WS by the team who probably should have won a few years ago; if it hadn’t been against the cheating, arrogant Astros. Seeing Altuve forget how to throw a ball was just the icing on a big cake of karma.

    Next year ......

  2. #1602
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by AussieYank View Post
    Notwithstanding the absence of the Yankees, the latter stages of the post-season were quite enjoyable. First, the cheating, arrogant Astros gets beaten in the ALCS and then the arrogant Rays get beaten in the WS by the team who probably should have won a few years ago; if it hadn’t been against the cheating, arrogant Astros. Seeing Altuve forget how to throw a ball was just the icing on a big cake of karma.

    Next year ......
    Agreed. Just hope I can return to Yankee Stadium next year. For me watching an entire season on TV kind of sucked.

  3. #1603

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Mixwell View Post
    The Nationals were the best team in baseball when they won the World Series too. What point are you trying to make?
    But they weren't. Astros won 107 games, Dodgers won 106, Braves won 97 and the Nationals won 93. Braves and Dodgers both lost in the NLDS.

    Don't confuse hottest with best. Any team can get hot and run the table and that's why it's a crapshoot. 13 WC teams have made the world series since 1995. That's over half the time. Don't let recency bias cloud your judgement.

  4. #1604
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    Or maybe they score more than 1 run themselves.

    I mean if you leave Snell in and he lets up 2 runs over 8, are you really blaming the pitching?
    But that didn't happen so we'll never know. I agree that only scoring the one run is a problem, but by the same logic, maybe Snell continues to deal as he had been through even the inning he was removed, and maybe the Rays win the game 1-0.
    Yankee fan living in Maine.

  5. #1605

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Guess this belongs here since he was talking about the whole Cash/Snell/Rays scenario, but did anyone hear Kay's rant about analytics today? I think we all agree analytics are out of control and taking Snell out was outrageous. 10000%.

    But the guy was going on about how ranting about how (to paraphrase) "baseball has been taken over by nerds who are getting revenge on all the star athletes who beat them up in high school and shoved them in lockers. These stats guys are loving the power they have over professional athletes who they can now control and dictate".

    The nerds took over? Did all these statistics guys from Harvard one day invade ballparks across America and demand to take control? It wasn't front offices who decided to go in this direction? It was just a really weird take on the situation. It felt like a perspective from another day and age (not that there isn't still bullying in schools), but it was just bizarre.

    I'd also like to hear him rant as passionately about the Yankees reliance on their (inferior) analytics compared to the Rays. Its one thing to rely on analytics that at least can get you to the World Series (with a fraction of the payroll) as opposed to relying on inferior analytics that can't get a team with a payroll over 250 million dollars into the Championship round.

  6. #1606

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by jbell025 View Post
    I think we all agree analytics are out of control and taking Snell out was outrageous. 10000%.
    Well...

  7. #1607

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    The flip side of that is Kershaw. A lot (not all) of his reputation as a choker was built on giving great performances but being left in too long. And he is an all time great who currently has the best ERA+ of any starting pitcher of all time. So going by feel backfires sometimes too.
    Not only that but almost all of his "choker" moments came against teams that were later confirmed to be stealing signs.

  8. #1608

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Benefactor View Post
    But they weren't. Astros won 107 games, Dodgers won 106, Braves won 97 and the Nationals won 93. Braves and Dodgers both lost in the NLDS.

    Don't confuse hottest with best. Any team can get hot and run the table and that's why it's a crapshoot. 13 WC teams have made the world series since 1995. That's over half the time. Don't let recency bias cloud your judgement.
    What? They didn't just "get hot". They finished the season on a 74 - 48 stretch. That's not recency bias. That's far longer than the 2020 season. And whats more, you seem to be hung up on regular season records that mean little any more. They were (clearly) built to win in the postseason, and every team they beat, they did because they had a roster better suited to October. There is no question the Nationals were the best team in baseball at the end of the 2019 season. They have the piece of metal to prove it.

  9. #1609
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    Or maybe they score more than 1 run themselves.

    I mean if you leave Snell in and he lets up 2 runs over 8, are you really blaming the pitching?
    If Cash takes Snell out of the game after 8 IP, his line would've been something like 8 IP, 4 or 5 H, 2 ER, 14 K, 1 BB. Nobody's going to be complaining about his pitching, and yes, all eyes would be on the bats not coming through.

    But that's not what happened. Cash took Snell out as he was pitching as well as he ever has, and the BP immediately coughed up the lead. That is the story. The secondary story is the Rays bats only scored one run, but they still gave Snell a lead (however small), and he held it in dominant fashion until Cash took the ball from his hands.

    So yeah, it still comes back to Cash soiling his pants.
    Last edited by ojo; 10-29-20 at 12:29 AM.
    “Nobody teaches life anything.” - Gabriel García Márquez

  10. #1610

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Mixwell View Post
    What? They didn't just "get hot". They finished the season on a 74 - 48 stretch. That's not recency bias. That's far longer than the 2020 season. And whats more, you seem to be hung up on regular season records that mean little any more. They were (clearly) built to win in the postseason, and every team they beat, they did because they had a roster better suited to October. There is no question the Nationals were the best team in baseball at the end of the 2019 season. They have the piece of metal to prove it.
    I'm hung up on using regular season records and you quote a regular season record. That's interesting. The Dodgers and Astros weren't built to win a world series but the Nationals were? That's even more interesting. You don't win 107 or 106 games unless you're really good. The Dodgers have been in three of the last four world series and Houston won it all in 2017. Metals prove you won, it doesn't prove you were the best. Just ask the 2006 Cardinals.

  11. #1611

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Benefactor View Post
    I'm hung up on using regular season records and you quote a regular season record. That's interesting. The Dodgers and Astros weren't built to win a world series but the Nationals were? That's even more interesting. You don't win 107 or 106 games unless you're really good. The Dodgers have been in three of the last four world series and Houston won it all in 2017. Metals prove you won, it doesn't prove you were the best. Just ask the 2006 Cardinals.
    These are fun.

    The Dodger, Astros and Nationals can all be built to win... only 1 can.

    No, the 2006 anecdote does not prove the crapshoot theory.

    The Yankees have not won because the Yankees have not been the best team. Period. Despite all the resource advantages possible. Cashman is FAILING.

  12. #1612

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    So yeah, it still comes back to Cash soiling his pants.
    It can go wrong either way, but going wrong while doing the same thing they have been doing all year, that got them to that point in the first place? To me, that's not soiling his pants.

    Going wrong because you changed what you have done all year in an elimination game 6 of the World Series? THAT is soiling your pants.

    They are the Rays. They played Rays baseball. It doesn't work every time. This time it didn't, but in doing things their way they lost to a better team with 4 times their payroll but it took until game 6 of the World Series before someone could knock them out. For a team in the bottom 5 of payroll, you shouldn't look at them and say "See! This is what is wrong wrong with the way they do things." you should look at that and figure out what they know that you don't.

  13. #1613
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    It can go wrong either way, but going wrong while doing the same thing they have been doing all year, that got them to that point in the first place? To me, that's not soiling his pants.

    Going wrong because you changed what you have done all year in an elimination game 6 of the World Series? THAT is soiling your pants.

    They are the Rays. They played Rays baseball. It doesn't work every time. This time it didn't, but in doing things their way they lost to a better team with 4 times their payroll but it took until game 6 of the World Series before someone could knock them out. For a team in the bottom 5 of payroll, you shouldn't look at them and say "See! This is what is wrong wrong with the way they do things." you should look at that and figure out what they know that you don't.
    Good grief. Blake Snell was the fist pitcher through 4 innings to record 9 strikeouts in a World Series game since ‘63 Sandy Koufax. He was demonstrating total command of all four of his pitches, and induced 16 swinging strikes. The problem with Cash is he used rearview mirror analytics to make a decision in the moment, and he crapped his pants. Those cumulative datasets ignore what Snell had the other night, because they include the times when he doesn’t have his ace material.

    And yeah, removing a lefty with Betts due up to go with a righty, considering he couldn’t hit LHP at all this year (worst SLG (.218) in MLB), shows they were picking and choosing their analytical moments.

    Bold move Cotton, indeed.
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  14. #1614
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    JomBoy breaks it down.

    “Nobody teaches life anything.” - Gabriel García Márquez

  15. #1615
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    JomBoy breaks it down.

    This is a really job of showing the "slavish reliance" I was talking about in my post in the other post-season discussion thread. Here's what I said there: "Analytics are just numbers on a page. The problem isn't the numbers, it the slavish reliance on them to do the thinking for people. It is part of a larger movement in society to quantify everything and deprofessionalize certain jobs. The issue with this is that many things are not quantifiable or are not quantifiable in a way that is meaningfully helpful in every case. As ojo pointed out, aggregate data is not revelatory in a moment where you are clearly witnessing an outlier case unfolding. This is where critical thinking and judgement have to override predetermined plans and aggregate data."

  16. #1616
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    I'm quite sure there was a data driven case for leaving Snell in the game. Analytics aren't the problem.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  17. #1617
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    I'm quite sure there was a data driven case for leaving Snell in the game. Analytics aren't the problem.
    Aren’t they? It would appear to me if a manager draws the wrong lessons from what the analytics are saying, then maybe they’re not being utilized appropriately. And at any rate, they’re only telling them what they’ve preordained themselves to hear, anyway.
    “Nobody teaches life anything.” - Gabriel García Márquez

  18. #1618

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    Good grief. Blake Snell was the fist pitcher through 4 innings to record 9 strikeouts in a World Series game since ‘63 Sandy Koufax. He was demonstrating total command of all four of his pitches, and induced 16 swinging strikes. The problem with Cash is he used rearview mirror analytics to make a decision in the moment, and he crapped his pants. Those cumulative datasets ignore what Snell had the other night, because they include the times when he doesn’t have his ace material.

    And yeah, removing a lefty with Betts due up to go with a righty, considering he couldn’t hit LHP at all this year (worst SLG (.218) in MLB), shows they were picking and choosing their analytical moments.

    Bold move Cotton, indeed.
    What do you think this proves? He had a nice start but they weren't in the 4th inning anymore. Baseball is filled with pitchers who were having great games... until they weren't. If I quote one of them it doesn't prove anything? Or can we just look at what we know?

    Typically, who has a better ERA? An ace starter or a top reliever? Who has a better ERA? And ace starter the 3rd time through the order or a top reliver?

    Do you even have to look it up? No. Because you stone cold KNOW the answer and you are going to sit here and try to argue that the analytics is wrong? Are they better pitchers? No. Are they more valuable? No, but coming in for 1 inning at a time is an easier job that gives you better results. You've seen it your entire baseball watching life with relievers coming in that are mediocre pitchers that consistently get ERAs starting pitcher would dream of.

    You had a rested bullpen coming off a day off and a game 5 loss and 3.2 IP to get through in a close game. It was not the wrong call and you know it. You do. You just have an axe to grind because you don't like the way the game is played anymore. That is fine, but don't pretend you don't know these things.

  19. #1619
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    What do you think this proves? He had a nice start but they weren't in the 4th inning anymore. Baseball is filled with pitchers who were having great games... until they weren't. If I quote one of them it doesn't prove anything? Or can we just look at what we know?

    Typically, who has a better ERA? An ace starter or a top reliever? Who has a better ERA? And ace starter the 3rd time through the order or a top reliver?

    Do you even have to look it up? No. Because you stone cold KNOW the answer and you are going to sit here and try to argue that the analytics is wrong? Are they better pitchers? No. Are they more valuable? No, but coming in for 1 inning at a time is an easier job that gives you better results. You've seen it your entire baseball watching life with relievers coming in that are mediocre pitchers that consistently get ERAs starting pitcher would dream of.

    You had a rested bullpen coming off a day off and a game 5 loss and 3.2 IP to get through in a close game. It was not the wrong call and you know it. You do. You just have an axe to grind because you don't like the way the game is played anymore. That is fine, but don't pretend you don't know these things.
    That pen had been overexposed, and you need to catch up to the conversation if you want to be viewed as the one who isn’t dug in.
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  20. #1620
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    Aren’t they? It would appear to me if a manager draws the wrong lessons from what the analytics are saying, then maybe they’re not being utilized appropriately. And at any rate, they’re only telling them what they’ve preordained themselves to hear, anyway.
    You answered your own question. Analytics are just information. It's still incumbent on the manager and players to use that information wisely. For example, Betts had a .531 OPS against LHP this year, but apparently that information was not taken into consideration when they removed Snell.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  21. #1621

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    I don't generally post (I prefer to just read), but I thought Joe Sheehan made a compelling argument (http://www.joesheehan.com/2020/10/jo...r-28-2020.html) for why Snell being removed was not unreasonable. Although there are definitely some analytical elements that support his argument, there was also a key point that was more anecdotal - Cash literally tried leaving Snell in the game in a similar scenario earlier in the series and was forced to pull him after things went south. In that game, Snell was also "dealing": "Snell had a no-hitter through 16 batters on 71 pitches. The next four batters: walk, homer, walk, single. Tonight (in game 6), Cash went and got him after 18 batters and 73 pitches." So, even for someone annoyed by analytics who wished the manager would go with his "gut", the most recent attempt to try the "leave him out there" approach didn't work...wouldn't trying it again with the hope of a different result be irresponsible? I think the more appropriate question that must be asked is whether the choice of reliever to come into the game was correct...

  22. #1622
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    You answered your own question. Analytics are just information. It's still incumbent on the manager and players to use that information wisely. For example, Betts had a .531 OPS against LHP this year, but apparently that information was not taken into consideration when they removed Snell.
    Analytics refers to the measurement of raw data. There is an inherent human element to getting that data to spit out what it does, and the more they yank SPs from games after the 2nd time through the order, the more the numbers will support it, as the outlier starts from the front-of-the-rotation types fade into the ether.
    “Nobody teaches life anything.” - Gabriel García Márquez

  23. #1623
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by sousuffer View Post
    I don't generally post (I prefer to just read), but I thought Joe Sheehan made a compelling argument (http://www.joesheehan.com/2020/10/jo...r-28-2020.html) for why Snell being removed was not unreasonable. Although there are definitely some analytical elements that support his argument, there was also a key point that was more anecdotal - Cash literally tried leaving Snell in the game in a similar scenario earlier in the series and was forced to pull him after things went south. In that game, Snell was also "dealing": "Snell had a no-hitter through 16 batters on 71 pitches. The next four batters: walk, homer, walk, single. Tonight (in game 6), Cash went and got him after 18 batters and 73 pitches." So, even for someone annoyed by analytics who wished the manager would go with his "gut", the most recent attempt to try the "leave him out there" approach didn't work...wouldn't trying it again with the hope of a different result be irresponsible? I think the more appropriate question that must be asked is whether the choice of reliever to come into the game was correct...
    I mentioned that in an earlier post. Pulling Snell is one thing but Anderson had given up runs his previous 6 appearances. Going to him first might have been a worse decision than pulling Snell.

  24. #1624
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    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Yeah, there's an old adage that says in a close game make damn sure the guy you're bringing into the game is better than the one you're taking out.
    “Nobody teaches life anything.” - Gabriel García Márquez

  25. #1625

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    You answered your own question. Analytics are just information. It's still incumbent on the manager and players to use that information wisely. For example, Betts had a .531 OPS against LHP this year, but apparently that information was not taken into consideration when they removed Snell.
    Because it doesn't really mean anything. It's only ABs against LHP in a short 2 months season. Over a normal season it doesn't mean too much. Over his career, there is almost no difference.

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