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  1. #1651

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by JL25and3 View Post
    Whatís random? Cherry-pick the starters, and of course youíre going to have more great starts, but thereís nothing random about it. Itís a series of n=1 cases.
    That's the point, you create a population which you think is representative of Blake Snell having a great game the first 2 time through the order. Then, over that sample you randomly select the starts. One way to do that is to take all of them. All of those data points (which yes are independent) will lead to a bell curve distribution of results which will help you figure out the probability of Snell being better than the pitcher replacing him.

    But yes, key to all of that is picking the right population of starts to look at. That's why I said looking at the wrong stats could be a problem, not the fact that the stats plot to a bell curve.

  2. #1652

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    The 4 vs 5 man rotations also lead to SP in general pitching less innings (and being less valuable) than pitchers in the past. Look at the all time leaders for single season WAR by pitcher. All the pictures are black and white.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...h_season.shtml

    Pud Glavin pitched 636.1 innings in the all time best season.

  3. #1653

    Re: 2020 Post-Season Notes and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by sd. View Post
    The 4 vs 5 man rotations also lead to SP in general pitching less innings (and being less valuable) than pitchers in the past. Look at the all time leaders for single season WAR by pitcher. All the pictures are black and white.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...h_season.shtml

    Pud Glavin pitched 636.1 innings in the all time best season.
    That's still different from this though. These days, it seems like teams are happy to get their starter through 4-5 innings. Even in the early 2010s, you still wanted guys to go 6-7 for it to be considered a good start. Granted, my view of starters is probably a little warped in an era where we had guys like Paxton get patted on the back for "gutting" through 4 innings after giving up 5 runs in first and finding a way to "settle down".

    Maybe at some point things go so far to the extreme with analytics that it begins to balance out again, but right now its hard to believe we're going to get another era of workhorse starters. Any starter who flashes big time potential will be "protected".

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