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  1. #4751
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by aeromac76 View Post
    CP all very good and salient points. But I would argue even with your point of view that it is better to wait a season at least.

    If we sell on Stanton now we'd be selling on a guy who is at the nadir if his value. He is coming off what was essentially missing the entire 2019 season. I would actually say we wait and see if he rebuilds hus value. If you trade him now, you are essentially doing so as a salary dump rather than to get anything of value for him. You can likely do that again next year even if he does not have a good year.. But if he does have a good year, then even if you are in the trade him camp, you can get more for him while eating less of the money. One of the reasons I was in the "don't trade Andujar" camp was not because I think he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, but because after the injury his value is in the tank. I am not interested in "throwing him in" to a deal, I'd rather see if he can re-establish himself as the centerpiece.. The situation is different for Stanton but my line of thinking is the same.. I don't want to deal him, but even if you do, it's certainly not a bad sentiment, but I'd argue that now is not the time to do it..
    That's why teams would want him now though. They would be betting on that bounceback. They want the prime years. That's what makes the backend of the contract actually palatable. You are removing a prime year from the contract. Additionally, if he doesn't have that bounce back, and he injures himself for the whole season or a large majority, teams are going to value his prime years less and less, and that contract will be ugly.

    Forget that aspect for a moment, I don't like Stanton as a hitter. I think his approach is extremely exploitable to good pitching. The Yankees and the game is moving towards high contact/low K. Stanton isn't that. Additionally, if he's more of a DH type, he isn't worth what he's owed. I know people bring up the 22m AAV, but that will mean less and less as we head into the next CBA and they raise the luxury tax limits, or eliminate entirely. Even at 22m that's steep, especially at that length. Look at how easy it was to find a Voit, Nelson Cruz, JD Martinez, Yuli, Josh Bell, ect...You can find one sided players pretty easily. It's not all that valuable, and if I'm getting a one sided hitter, he better be well rounded. That's not Stanton.

    Simply put, the juice isn't worth the squeeze when I look at the entirety of Stanton, where the game is moving towards, and the Yankees roster.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  2. #4752

    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark19 View Post
    The Yankees 2020 payroll - for luxury tax purposes - currently stands at approximately $261 million.

    Ellsbury represents $21.8 million in dead money and Happ is set to earn $17 million in 2020.

    Here is what I'm thinking, if the Yankees can unload all of Happ's contact - and they miraculously win their grievance against Ellsbury - their luxury tax payroll falls to $223.5 million - under the second Luxury Tax threshold with $3-4 million in breathing room for mid-season acquisitions.

    If they only unload Happ but are stuck paying Ellsbury the full amount, their payroll falls to $245.5 million - considerably less breathing room for mid-season acquisitions.

    Jonathan Holder and Luis Cessa are collectively going to get approximately $2 million in their first rounds of arbitration and they are somewhat easy to replace.

    Either way, I'm guessing while Hal would love to get under the second Luxury Tax threshold, he is dead-set on getting under the third Luxury Tax threshold.

    Bottom line, the Yankees likely have only a couple million dollars to complete their last roster tweaks - or would have to be targeting pre-arbitration players - to finalize the roster.
    I think he's going to end up eating it on the third tier. He won't be happy about it, but I think he'll cave to the needs - assuming health and performance has the team in contention.
    If things go sideways, there's no way he tries to spend his way into the playoffs.
    Supports: smart spending, roster flexibility and depth. Does not support: reckless spending and extreme prospect hugging.

  3. #4753

    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by damons View Post
    Cole, Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, Montgomery/German, who do you want as the 5th starter Bumgarner?
    Sure, who says you can't have a top of the rotation caliber starter at the back of your rotation? Plus Tanaka and Paxton are free agents next year. Also Montgomery and German are guaranteeing us nothing given that German will be suspended and Montgomery has yet to show he's back. And our bullpen improves by making Monty a bulk guy and German a multi-inning late reliever, or swing man.

    But no I'm not advocating for signing MadBum, I'm saying let's trade Happ and from our depth of young talent on the 40 man roster for a better starter.

    There's always room for improvement. Its Championship or bust, no reason to stop at Cole even though he's the lynch pin of all of this.

  4. #4754

    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714 View Post
    I'm not willing to place that much faith in Matt Blake yet, but if he could get Ray to unlock his potential that would be something. Worth a shot if nothing better comes along.
    Blake seems to be better suited as developer of pitchers while Cone is the better guy to have In the dugout.
    "It is almost impossible to remember how tragic a place the world is when one is playing golf." -Robert Wilson Lynd



  5. #4755
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Rothchild was supposed to be a savior when he was hired and took over for Dave Eiland. The same things were said about him. Working with Rothchild will lead to more Ks. He has an advanced approach. He uses analytics. Just this year Lindsey Adler wrote some puff piece in the Athletic about how diligent and hardworking Rothchild is. Staying later than everyone. Taking work home. Working on the subway. Yadda yadda yadda.

    I'm cautiously optimistic with Matt Blake, but I've been fooled too many times. You cannot go into this actually believing or planning that Matt Blake will make a big impact on any player.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  6. #4756

    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    I think people are wasting their time with all of this Stanton trade talk. The man is basically owed $30 million a year, has a no trade clause and is playing for the Yankees.
    Supports: smart spending, roster flexibility and depth. Does not support: reckless spending and extreme prospect hugging.

  7. #4757
    It's a walkoff Mark19's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    There is about 0 chance the Yanks win their case with Ellsbury.


    Happ is movable but probably not all $17M unless they package him with a top prospect like the Angels did with Cozart. Given that Gausman and Porcello got ~1/$10m deals and Wacha can make $11M with incentives have to figure Happs trade contract worth is around $10M minus prospect cost the Yanks would get in return.


    Seems like a year the Yanks are going over the top tax so they may go all in if it's a 1 year deal or something. In for a penny, in for a pound.



    or they may just stand pat where they are right now which is not a bad place to be.
    Re: Ellsbury - I agree, but given how acrimonious and petty it might become, I also wouldn't be shocked if there was some kind of negotiated buy-out.

    The Yankees are already going to get penalized in the 2020 draft because of the Cole signing - I'm not sure Cashman would be thrilled about taking on the 2021 draft implications of being over the $248 million Luxury Tax threshold.

    Besides, they will have the same rate restrictions in 2021 and the savings from Ellsbury will likely all be eaten up by arbitration raises and the cost of replacing / re-signing Tanaka / Paxton.

    The Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Twins, Blue Jays, Reds, Braves, Padres, Brewers, and Diamondbacks are all still in the market for quality SP.

    The only SP still available that are safer bets to be healthy and/or productive than Happ are Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel, Rich Hill, and Gio Gonzalez. If you throw in a reliever with some upside (Tarpley, Heller, Holder, Cessa), I would imagine you could get someone to take nearly all of Happ's contract.

    Either way, I would expect a little bit of dumpster diving over the next month or so.
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  8. #4758
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    I'm cautiously optimistic with Matt Blake, but I've been fooled too many times. You cannot go into this actually believing or planning that Matt Blake will make a big impact on any player.
    I like the hire and agree. Cautiously optimistic is a good what to put it.
    I like the results that young Indian pitchers have gotten lately, if Matt Blake was a part of that, like it appears he was, then I think that bodes well for his future.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  9. #4759
    I.P. Standing Krall's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714 View Post
    I'm not willing to place that much faith in Matt Blake yet, but if he could get Ray to unlock his potential that would be something. Worth a shot if nothing better comes along.
    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Rothchild was supposed to be a savior when he was hired and took over for Dave Eiland. The same things were said about him. Working with Rothchild will lead to more Ks. He has an advanced approach. He uses analytics. Just this year Lindsey Adler wrote some puff piece in the Athletic about how diligent and hardworking Rothchild is. Staying later than everyone. Taking work home. Working on the subway. Yadda yadda yadda.

    I'm cautiously optimistic with Matt Blake, but I've been fooled too many times. You cannot go into this actually believing or planning that Matt Blake will make a big impact on any player.
    I donít know anything about Blake other than that video someone posted a day ago. Looks arenít an indicator on someoneís intelligence but he reminded me of a young Rothschild. Iíd find it hard to believe guys making $20 mil a year, spending all day in the gym and having already accomplished pitching at the MLB level are really going to learn anything from a pitching coach.

    There was a lady Cashman just hired whoís some kind of mechanics scientist from one of those west coast video analysts places that seems she could have a much bigger impact on a pitching staff.

  10. #4760
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Krall View Post
    I don’t know anything about Blake other than that video someone posted a day ago. Looks aren’t an indicator on someone’s intelligence but he reminded me of a young Rothschild. I’d find it hard to believe guys making $20 mil a year, spending all day in the gym and having already accomplished pitching at the MLB level are really going to learn anything from a pitching coach.

    There was a lady Cashman just hired who’s some kind of mechanics scientist from one of those west coast video analysts places that seems she could have a much bigger impact on a pitching staff.
    Wasn't she hired as a hitting coach of some kind? Roving minor league instructor or something like that. Unless there is a second hire I missed.


    As for Blake, I think he too has a bio-mechanical degree.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  11. #4761

    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Re: Matt Blake
    I think it's scary hiring a guy like that because I've been conditioned to think that pitchers - preferably with MLB experience - make good pitching coaches. But I see the success that other teams and pitchers are having and I think, "man, the Yanks need to be doing that!" I just get the feeling that the old school pitching coach isn't as well equipped to really dial in arm slots, spin axis and making different pitches appear the same like some of these new school dudes are. But I'll be the first to admit that I don't really know what I'm talking about.
    Supports: smart spending, roster flexibility and depth. Does not support: reckless spending and extreme prospect hugging.

  12. #4762
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Wasn't she hired as a hitting coach of some kind? Roving minor league instructor or something like that. Unless there is a second hire I missed.


    As for Blake, I think he too has a bio-mechanical degree.
    She's the hitting coach for the GCL Yankees. Interview with her from yesterday:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UcH0ZBZbMY
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  13. #4763

    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    That's why teams would want him now though. They would be betting on that bounceback. They want the prime years. That's what makes the backend of the contract actually palatable. You are removing a prime year from the contract. Additionally, if he doesn't have that bounce back, and he injures himself for the whole season or a large majority, teams are going to value his prime years less and less, and that contract will be ugly.

    Forget that aspect for a moment, I don't like Stanton as a hitter. I think his approach is extremely exploitable to good pitching. The Yankees and the game is moving towards high contact/low K. Stanton isn't that. Additionally, if he's more of a DH type, he isn't worth what he's owed. I know people bring up the 22m AAV, but that will mean less and less as we head into the next CBA and they raise the luxury tax limits, or eliminate entirely. Even at 22m that's steep, especially at that length. Look at how easy it was to find a Voit, Nelson Cruz, JD Martinez, Yuli, Josh Bell, ect...You can find one sided players pretty easily. It's not all that valuable, and if I'm getting a one sided hitter, he better be well rounded. That's not Stanton.

    Simply put, the juice isn't worth the squeeze when I look at the entirety of Stanton, where the game is moving towards, and the Yankees roster.
    Donít disagree with any of this which is why I hated this acquisition the day it was announced. Having said that, itís been reported Staton has no intention of waving his no trade clause. Doesnít mean they shouldnít try though.

  14. #4764
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 2m
    The Washington #Nats are actively engaged with free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, knowing it will take a four-year deal to sign him.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  15. #4765
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 2m
    The Washington #Nats are actively engaged with free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, knowing it will take a four-year deal to sign him.
    My love for Donaldson has been well documented. That would be a very savvy alternative to Rendon.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  16. #4766
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    I think Stanton will be productive in 2020. I really want to see him at full strength in this lineup. Fun to watch.

    That said, CP's point is a good one. If 2020 is mediocre from a production standpoint, or if he continues to suffer with injuries and adds to the concerns that his body can't hold up to the demands placed on it, you're stuck.

    Using your analogy, while I'd trade Andujar if they can get decent value for him, I get the argument for seeing if he can restore value. If he struggles next season, he has options.
    Heck, you can DFA him and really you're just out the opportunity cost of trading him. With Stanton, if he struggles next year it would be almost impossible to trade him without paying a huge chunk of his deal. So you have 7 more seasons after next where he's tying up a huge chunk of AAV and a roster spot. And you know he's not sitting on the bench at that salary. There is a strong case to trade him if you can do it.

    I think the bolded is true today, so why not wait?
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  17. #4767
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    That's why teams would want him now though. They would be betting on that bounceback. They want the prime years. That's what makes the backend of the contract actually palatable. You are removing a prime year from the contract. Additionally, if he doesn't have that bounce back, and he injures himself for the whole season or a large majority, teams are going to value his prime years less and less, and that contract will be ugly.

    Forget that aspect for a moment, I don't like Stanton as a hitter. I think his approach is extremely exploitable to good pitching. The Yankees and the game is moving towards high contact/low K. Stanton isn't that. Additionally, if he's more of a DH type, he isn't worth what he's owed. I know people bring up the 22m AAV, but that will mean less and less as we head into the next CBA and they raise the luxury tax limits, or eliminate entirely. Even at 22m that's steep, especially at that length. Look at how easy it was to find a Voit, Nelson Cruz, JD Martinez, Yuli, Josh Bell, ect...You can find one sided players pretty easily. It's not all that valuable, and if I'm getting a one sided hitter, he better be well rounded. That's not Stanton.

    Simply put, the juice isn't worth the squeeze when I look at the entirety of Stanton, where the game is moving towards, and the Yankees roster.

    You may be right, I just want one more year to find out..
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  18. #4768
    New Murderer's Row False1's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by aeromac76 View Post
    I think the bolded is true today, so why not wait?
    It's less true today than if he were to have a similar season this year as he did in '19. If he does, he becomes exponentially harder to trade. Acquiring teams want these seasons, knowing the tail end of that deal is going to be a rough ride. If you were inclined to acquire him, you want him sooner rather than later.

    That said, I'm actually in the camp of keeping him. I'm just saying there's a strong case to be made if you could unload him and most of his salary.

  19. #4769

    Re: Official 2019-20 Offseason / Hot Stove Thread

    my opinion on matt blake as yanks pitching coach, if he was one of the reasons that convinced cole to sign with the yankees then he cant be that bad .

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