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  1. #26
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by CalYankeeFan View Post
    For whom?
    The Yankees. Who else?
    In "Kids in the Hall" I trust

  2. #27
    when the going gets tough ... JSG's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by rajah View Post
    Despite my usual optimism, I do not have as good a feeling about the ALDS as do most of you. Maybe I am too influenced by the way the team has been hitting recently, but I would take no more than an even bet, notwithstanding the HFA. The past against very different Twins teams means nothing.

    I give the Yankees about a 10% chance to win the WS.

    But regardless, it has been a great season with many wonderful story lines. And I intend to be watching a lot of playoff baseball this year.
    Fangraphs gives them 16.7%, with Astros almost double at 32.1%, LA a hair under us, and the Twins at 7.4%. then TB @ 6.3% and As at only 2.7%, which is nutty.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

    On paper, the Astros are clearly the team to beat, so they deserve the bigger odds. I think we're much better than the Dodgers, but I also think the other AL teams in the mix are pretty solid. The Twins are dangerous but I can't see them doing it due to pitching. The As and Rays, on the other hand, with their pitching, are pretty scary.

    We've looked like crap lately, which makes it harder to be bullish, but these things turn around on a dime. If we pitch well and flip the ON switch on our lineup, I think we'll be fine.

    To paraphrase Michael Corleone, if history has taught us anything, it's that the Yankees can beat anyone.

    Cheers,

  3. #28

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bonn1997 View Post
    Agreed. But simply dismissing all the WAR stats because our "ace" is back is also misleading.
    Changing the subject doesn't diminish the fact that you posted a misleading stat about staff performance as though that has predictive value for the ALDS.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  4. #29
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by oldandintheway View Post
    Any speculation on game times for ALDS Games 1 and 2?
    I would guess both will be at 8. Yankees on prime time is always kind of a given.

  5. #30
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    I think the action of the fans in this coming series will be extremely important. The Twins are very good and the Yankees are mostly in a collective slump. Will the pinstrippers get extra motivation from the fans? Hopefully, they do and this will allow them to win this series.

  6. #31

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sixty one View Post
    I think the action of the fans in this coming series will be extremely important. The Twins are very good and the Yankees are mostly in a collective slump. Will the pinstrippers get extra motivation from the fans? Hopefully, they do and this will allow them to win this series.
    I hear you, but I think the #1 factor will be the starting pitcher. If (say) James Paxton holds down the Twins offense, that more than anything else will set the tone.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  7. #32

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sweet_lou_14 View Post
    Changing the subject doesn't diminish the fact that you posted a misleading stat about staff performance as though that has predictive value for the ALDS.
    Wait, you’re saying it has ZERO predictive value? Because Severino returned from the IL and not everyone on the club pitches in the postseason? That seems really far fetched.

  8. #33

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bonn1997 View Post
    Wait, you’re saying it has ZERO predictive value? Because Severino returned from the IL and not everyone on the club pitches in the postseason? That seems really far fetched.
    Let me try to restate what I'm trying to say, because I'm not trying to get into an argument over this.

    The Yankees' pitching staff, taken in the aggregate for the entire 2019 regular season, isn't going to rank very highly against the rest of the league. That shouldn't shock anyone. But the distribution of innings among individual pitchers in the postseason will not remotely resemble the distribution for the regular season. All those innings from guys who won't even make the postseason roster can be thrown out. CC and Happ, who will likely be on the roster, will also see much less action. And so on.

    Also, I pointed out the obvious fact that Severino should get a substantial percentage of the innings even though his total regular season workload was negligible. Finally, although I didn't say it before, I am also factoring in what seems to be a marked improvement for Paxton and even Happ in the last month of the season, meaning that I'm giving their recent sample much more weight than the overall body of work for the season.

    On this basis, I consider any sort of staff-wide statistic (ERA, WAR, or whatever) to be misleading and of limited predictive value, and I stand by that.

    Now, the counter-argument would be: every team gets to use only its best. Verlander, Cole, and Greinke will likely pitch a higher percentage of innings than they did in the regular season, too. Greinke (or Charlie Morton in Tampa Bay) is an addition, just like Severino is. Etc.

    All I'm trying to say is that I totally get that the Yankees' pitching -- their starting rotation, at least -- still doesn't stack up to Houston's. (It might not stack up with Tampa Bay's either.) But I believe the gap is not as wide as you'd think solely from looking at the overall staff performance.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  9. #34

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Schedule just got released for game 1 and 2 - start times are 7:07 and 5:07 for game 1 and 2, respectively.

  10. #35
    First Name: Keninovich hardrain's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Hopefully the Yanks will rest most of their starters the first two games...need them ready for game 5
    Standings: Big Inning 32-16; Blue Cut 27-21; Shoo Fly 26-22; Husk 22-26; Frank Pierce 21-27; Iowa City 16-32.

  11. #36
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by hardrain View Post
    Hopefully the Yanks will rest most of their starters the first two games...need them ready for game 5
    Will Gary catch a day game after a night game?

  12. #37
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sixty one View Post
    I think the action of the fans in this coming series will be extremely important. The Twins are very good and the Yankees are mostly in a collective slump. Will the pinstrippers get extra motivation from the fans? Hopefully, they do and this will allow them to win this series.
    Fans will be loud to start the game but if Yankees fall behind early it could quiet down. Unfortunately there are not as many season ticket holders that actually attend most of the games like back in the old YS days. I know quite a few that sell their playoff tickets in the early rounds.

  13. #38
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by hardrain View Post
    Hopefully the Yanks will rest most of their starters the first two games...need them ready for game 5
    Like the Dodgers in the WS last year? Sitting lefties playing match ups?
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  14. #39

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sweet_lou_14 View Post
    Let me try to restate what I'm trying to say, because I'm not trying to get into an argument over this.

    The Yankees' pitching staff, taken in the aggregate for the entire 2019 regular season, isn't going to rank very highly against the rest of the league. That shouldn't shock anyone. But the distribution of innings among individual pitchers in the postseason will not remotely resemble the distribution for the regular season. All those innings from guys who won't even make the postseason roster can be thrown out. CC and Happ, who will likely be on the roster, will also see much less action. And so on.

    Also, I pointed out the obvious fact that Severino should get a substantial percentage of the innings even though his total regular season workload was negligible. Finally, although I didn't say it before, I am also factoring in what seems to be a marked improvement for Paxton and even Happ in the last month of the season, meaning that I'm giving their recent sample much more weight than the overall body of work for the season.

    On this basis, I consider any sort of staff-wide statistic (ERA, WAR, or whatever) to be misleading and of limited predictive value, and I stand by that.

    Now, the counter-argument would be: every team gets to use only its best. Verlander, Cole, and Greinke will likely pitch a higher percentage of innings than they did in the regular season, too. Greinke (or Charlie Morton in Tampa Bay) is an addition, just like Severino is. Etc.

    All I'm trying to say is that I totally get that the Yankees' pitching -- their starting rotation, at least -- still doesn't stack up to Houston's. (It might not stack up with Tampa Bay's either.) But I believe the gap is not as wide as you'd think solely from looking at the overall staff performance.
    Ok that’s all reasonable

  15. #40
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by sweet_lou_14 View Post
    Let me try to restate what I'm trying to say, because I'm not trying to get into an argument over this.

    The Yankees' pitching staff, taken in the aggregate for the entire 2019 regular season, isn't going to rank very highly against the rest of the league. That shouldn't shock anyone. But the distribution of innings among individual pitchers in the postseason will not remotely resemble the distribution for the regular season. All those innings from guys who won't even make the postseason roster can be thrown out. CC and Happ, who will likely be on the roster, will also see much less action. And so on.

    Also, I pointed out the obvious fact that Severino should get a substantial percentage of the innings even though his total regular season workload was negligible. Finally, although I didn't say it before, I am also factoring in what seems to be a marked improvement for Paxton and even Happ in the last month of the season, meaning that I'm giving their recent sample much more weight than the overall body of work for the season.

    On this basis, I consider any sort of staff-wide statistic (ERA, WAR, or whatever) to be misleading and of limited predictive value, and I stand by that.

    Now, the counter-argument would be: every team gets to use only its best. Verlander, Cole, and Greinke will likely pitch a higher percentage of innings than they did in the regular season, too. Greinke (or Charlie Morton in Tampa Bay) is an addition, just like Severino is. Etc.

    All I'm trying to say is that I totally get that the Yankees' pitching -- their starting rotation, at least -- still doesn't stack up to Houston's. (It might not stack up with Tampa Bay's either.) But I believe the gap is not as wide as you'd think solely from looking at the overall staff performance.



    Well stated, and in my mind accurate. These things get taken out of context a lot. I got into an argument about the Yankees having the best bullpen in the game with a fellow fan a few weeks or so back. And he just kept pulling out ERA. It was hard to convince him that when I made that claim, I made it for the high leverage guys. The goal of a bullpen more than anything else is to protect leads that you get. And our big relievers did that as well as anyone. I believe I saw a stat that showed when we pitched our big 4 guys in the same game, we were 24-0 this season until the last day of the year when we go them all in to get work rather than to protect a lead. In short, our big arms, when called upon to protect a lead or preserve a tie, were nearly infallible. And just because the whole bullpen ERA may be somewhat high because of some arms we never use in high leverage giving up a million runs, that does not discount the effectiveness of the main cogs. The context is key.... You cannot say Chap, Britton, Otto, TK and Green are not as good as advertised because guys Holder and Cortes give up runs..


    In any event, your post, well thought out and written, reminded me of this..
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  16. #41
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Thinking back to last year MIL vs LAD - I can't wait to watch tonight's game. I expect a great game. (I don't get to see MIL at all but I wonder if they still have that kid out of the pen who throws 95 mph BBs)

    I am also happy we are facing MIN and not TB (I expect Morton to W) because I do feel they can give HOU problems and possibly win. I do like our chances even if we haven't been hitting and pitching great lately because you never know what happens or who shines.

  17. #42

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bucky View Post
    Thinking back to last year MIL vs LAD - I can't wait to watch tonight's game. I expect a great game. (I don't get to see MIL at all but I wonder if they still have that kid out of the pen who throws 95 mph BBs)

    I am also happy we are facing MIN and not TB (I expect Morton to W) because I do feel they can give HOU problems and possibly win. I do like our chances even if we haven't been hitting and pitching great lately because you never know what happens or who shines.
    They have been pitching pretty well. The last 14 days the team ERA is 3.31. It’s below four for the month of September as well. The bats have had a two week mini slump, though.

  18. #43
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    The crowd is going to be a factor in Minnesota, so I really hope we jump on them and take the first two. Those regular season games there were brutal with the Basketball-esque intrusive music / sound effects after every pitch.
    Listen to the bell Grossbard, it tolls for thee.

  19. #44
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    From USA Today:


    Friday, Oct. 4


    ALDS Game 1 – A's/Rays at Astros, 2:05 p.m. (FS1)
    NLDS Game 2 – Cardinals at Braves, 4:37 p.m. ET (TBS)
    ALDS Game 1 – Twins at Yankees, 7:07 p.m. (MLB)
    NLDS Game 2 – Nationals/Brewers at Dodgers, 9:37 or 9:47 p.m (TBS)


    Saturday, Oct. 5


    ALDS Game 2 – Twins at Yankees, 5:07 p.m. (FS1)
    ALDS B Game 2 – A's/Rays at Astros, 9:07 p.m. (FS1)

  20. #45

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto Kelly View Post
    The crowd is going to be a factor in Minnesota, so I really hope we jump on them and take the first two. Those regular season games there were brutal with the Basketball-esque intrusive music / sound effects after every pitch.
    Yeah, I forgot about that. I don't believe the players are fazed by it, but it made it really hard to enjoy the games as a fan.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  21. #46
    when the going gets tough ... JSG's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto Kelly View Post
    The crowd is going to be a factor in Minnesota, so I really hope we jump on them and take the first two. Those regular season games there were brutal with the Basketball-esque intrusive music / sound effects after every pitch.
    My hope is that the collective "oooooooooohhhhh jaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa" in Minny will sound like "Newwwwww Yoooooooork" and we will thereby reclaim HFA.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TF3z-j8o39I

  22. #47
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto Kelly View Post
    The crowd is going to be a factor in Minnesota, so I really hope we jump on them and take the first two. Those regular season games there were brutal with the Basketball-esque intrusive music / sound effects after every pitch.
    At least the weather in Minny is predicted to be similar to the weather in NY this weekend.

  23. #48

    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Yankees odds to win the WS has been posted at 5 /1. Twins at 16/1.
    Dodgers 11/4, Houston 2/1.

  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by BUZZARDS BAY View Post
    Yankees odds to win the WS has been posted at 5 /1. Twins at 16/1.
    Dodgers 11/4, Houston 2/1.
    Embrace the underdog.

  25. #50
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    Re: 2019 Postseason Thread

    Dan Hayes@DanHayesMLB
    · Sep 30
    Umpires for the upcoming #MNTwins-Yankees are: Gary Cederstrom (crew chief), Lance Barksdale, Eric Cooper, Manny Gonzalez, Adrian Johnson and Todd Tichenor.
    Well, no Angel, no West.
    "Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it! It's a home run! A three-run homer by Bucky Dent! And the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2!" - New York Yankees announcer Bill White (October 2, 1978)

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