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  1. #51
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by Stupid Flanders View Post
    Why overcomplicate with crazy random draft positions per round or additional keepers? Non-snake, standard draft is incentive enough. The reason it currently “does not work” is because we have a snake draft, and finishing with the #1 pick means you may have the WORST, not the best draft position.

    Stop trying to make the draft “fair” for everyone. It’s not supposed to be fair. It should reward those who came close and tried, those who need help, and punish playoff teams.
    I don't want to make it "fair" for everyone, I'm trying to provide incentive to the top of the draft and giving the top of the draft a slightly unfair draft advantage without crushing the bottom of the draft order.

    The purpose behind my looking at using random pick after the 1st round is to decrease the advantage of a snake or a standard pattern draft.
    Both are unfair as either the front of the draft or the back of draft gets screwed.
    The extra keeper for the top 2 (or maybe even three) highest scoring non-playoff (or winners of the loser bracket) plus getting picks 1-3 then a potential to have another top pick in the 2nd (due to random slot assignment) is a valuable incentive.

    I guess it all depends on how much we as a league wish to punish Champjon/playoff teams.

  2. #52
    Just Flanders being Flanders. Stupid Flanders's Avatar
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by ruthianblast View Post
    I don't want to make it "fair" for everyone, I'm trying to provide incentive to the top of the draft and giving the top of the draft a slightly unfair draft advantage without crushing the bottom of the draft order.

    The purpose behind my looking at using random pick after the 1st round is to decrease the advantage of a snake or a standard pattern draft.
    Both are unfair as either the front of the draft or the back of draft gets screwed.
    The extra keeper for the top 2 (or maybe even three) highest scoring non-playoff (or winners of the loser bracket) plus getting picks 1-3 then a potential to have another top pick in the 2nd (due to random slot assignment) is a valuable incentive.

    I guess it all depends on how much we as a league wish to punish Champjon/playoff teams.
    It’s not a punishment to the winners. No sports league seems to think it is.

  3. #53
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by Stupid Flanders View Post
    It’s not a punishment to the winners. No sports league seems to think it is.
    Yeah, well; we're not a bunch of millionaires who play a game or own a multi-billion dollar team. We're a bunch of people who are drafting said millionaires to pretend for a microcosm that we're the billionaires to have a bit of fun for the 162 game season that is the best sport in the world.

  4. #54
    Do not vex me mortal Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by Stupid Flanders View Post
    Why overcomplicate with crazy random draft positions per round or additional keepers? Non-snake, standard draft is incentive enough. The reason it currently “does not work” is because we have a snake draft, and finishing with the #1 pick means you may have the WORST, not the best draft position.

    Stop trying to make the draft “fair” for everyone. It’s not supposed to be fair. It should reward those who came close and tried, those who need help, and punish playoff teams.
    Is your idea just to have the same draft position in every round?

    If it is, can you give me some reasons you think it’s better? I’ve always felt it was a bad way of drafting. But I’m open to hearing what you got and understand it.

    What seems to be proposed the other way is what I mentioned last week when this conversation started. I used to play in a league where you drafted in a different position every round. There was a pattern but it made it fair, and gave a decent advantage to getting the first pick. I’m cool with that. But giving teams early picks in every round for 23/24 rounds seems like a huge advantage and disadvantage depending on where you are.

    Also, I disagree that having first pick as we have it now is the worst. Sure you have to wait a while for your second pick but you get a third right away. I think you may be overstating that a bit. If I’m wrong, tell me, I do want to hear it.

  5. #55
    Just Flanders being Flanders. Stupid Flanders's Avatar
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    I’ll go into more details soon, but for now let me just say that unless something has changed CBS only allows snake or standard picks. I suppose there may be a way for a commish to manually alter the order but we should probably find out first before debating as the subject may be moot on some points.

  6. #56
    It's time for fantasy baseball gdn's Avatar
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    I can enter an entirely custom round.

  7. #57
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    Is your idea just to have the same draft position in every round?

    If it is, can you give me some reasons you think it’s better? I’ve always felt it was a bad way of drafting. But I’m open to hearing what you got and understand it.

    What seems to be proposed the other way is what I mentioned last week when this conversation started. I used to play in a league where you drafted in a different position every round. There was a pattern but it made it fair, and gave a decent advantage to getting the first pick. I’m cool with that. But giving teams early picks in every round for 23/24 rounds seems like a huge advantage and disadvantage depending on where you are.

    Also, I disagree that having first pick as we have it now is the worst. Sure you have to wait a while for your second pick but you get a third right away. I think you may be overstating that a bit. If I’m wrong, tell me, I do want to hear it.
    Sorry, I know I'm the guy posting seemingly random math stuff.

    The first two rounds of our draft are exceedingly important. The first round is nearly double the importance of any round.
    I ran the numbers two ways, with all keepers included and with keepers excluded from the draft (true draft picks as those late round uber keepers skew the late rounds)
    All percentages are based on total point accumulated in the league.

    Our first round players account for 8.1% of total points. If we exclude keepers it's 10.1% of total points
    The playoff teams using their bonuses to keep first round players is a huge bonus for the playoff team.

    The second round is 7.2% of points w/ keepers and 10.2% without
    About as strong.

    The third round?
    5.26% including keepers and only 6.8% w/keepers.

    There is a significant drop off in the value of a third round pick.
    In fact the 3rd round, at least in terms of points, is about as valuable as any other round up to 15.
    - Interestingly round 15 is 4.1% of total points w/ keepers and 4.96% without.
    After 15, the points drop off a cliff (without keepers) understandably.

    Basically, the 1st and 2nd rounds plus keepers go a long way to determining your fantasy fate.
    Just this year, for comparisons sake:
    GWW had the last pick (and used a playoff bonus to keep Bauer) of the first round.
    Their two players of the 1st and 2nd swing picks have 870 points
    Mrs Bill had the top pick, if you include the 1st pick of the 3rd round they got 871.5 out of those 3 players.

  8. #58
    Just Flanders being Flanders. Stupid Flanders's Avatar
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by ruthianblast View Post
    Sorry, I know I'm the guy posting seemingly random math stuff.

    The first two rounds of our draft are exceedingly important. The first round is nearly double the importance of any round.
    I ran the numbers two ways, with all keepers included and with keepers excluded from the draft (true draft picks as those late round uber keepers skew the late rounds)
    All percentages are based on total point accumulated in the league.

    Our first round players account for 8.1% of total points. If we exclude keepers it's 10.1% of total points
    The playoff teams using their bonuses to keep first round players is a huge bonus for the playoff team.

    The second round is 7.2% of points w/ keepers and 10.2% without
    About as strong.

    The third round?
    5.26% including keepers and only 6.8% w/keepers.

    There is a significant drop off in the value of a third round pick.
    In fact the 3rd round, at least in terms of points, is about as valuable as any other round up to 15.
    - Interestingly round 15 is 4.1% of total points w/ keepers and 4.96% without.
    After 15, the points drop off a cliff (without keepers) understandably.

    Basically, the 1st and 2nd rounds plus keepers go a long way to determining your fantasy fate.
    Just this year, for comparisons sake:
    GWW had the last pick (and used a playoff bonus to keep Bauer) of the first round.
    Their two players of the 1st and 2nd swing picks have 870 points
    Mrs Bill had the top pick, if you include the 1st pick of the 3rd round they got 871.5 out of those 3 players.
    Your stats just proved my point. There is no advantage to having the #1 pick, so it’s not worth fighting for under a snake system

  9. #59
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by Stupid Flanders View Post
    Your stats just proved my point. There is no advantage to having the #1 pick, so it’s not worth fighting for under a snake system
    We have a similar POV.
    I don't want a standard draft though; as that screws the playoff teams. Though the argument could be made that by using their playoff bonuses in the 1st & 2nd round they are still receiving a benefit equivalent.
    I wonder how many playoff teams used a keeper in the first round; might be an interesting review. If that's the case, then perhaps a standard draft is the way to go (it's certainly easier than manually loading each round) as the benefit of a high pick is essentially over once we hit the third round.

    It was really interesting to me that the 3rd round is essentially equivalent to the 4th through 15th. I didn't expect that. I was expecting a slow regression throughout the draft. But nope.

  10. #60
    It's time for fantasy baseball gdn's Avatar
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    What if the top 10 teams got an extra mL keeper or extra pick in the mL draft?

  11. #61
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by gdn View Post
    What if the top 10 teams got an extra mL keeper or extra pick in the mL draft?
    Right now, with a snake draft, the issue is the top 2 rounds. A playoff team is getting more value at the bottom of the 1st and top of the 2nd round that the 1st overall pick is getting with the 1st, 40th and 41st.

    An extra ML keeper OR potentially a keeper round bonus would likely even things up. The keeper round bonus is actually extremely valuable.

  12. #62
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    I don’t think the keeper round bonus is all that valuable

  13. #63
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by JMP08 View Post
    I don’t think the keeper round bonus is all that valuable
    We can disagree of course, but I think it is. Due to the importance of the 1st & 2nd rounds it allows a playoff team to keep what would likely be a top 10 pick at the end of the first round.
    Depending on whether they had (or traded for) a above average 3rd round pick it would potentially allow them to keep a potential 1st or 2nd in the 3rd (since they would have a quite low pick in the 3rd). If done correctly, and I'm assuming here that playoff teams have above average players from the prior year, a Champjon could easily have 3 potential first round players in the first 3 rounds.
    If you look at the draft this year, that's exactly what Guys With Wood did (rightly so, even if injuries somewhat derailed).
    1st Round Keeper (20th pick) - Trevor Bauer (503pts previous season)
    2nd Round non-keeper (21st) - Freeman
    3rd Round non-keeper (40th) - German Marquez
    4th Round keeper (41st) - Blake Snell (586 previous season)

    Essentially; due to playoff bonus GWW were able to keep 2 SP's that likely go before the 20th pick in the 1st round. That's the bonus that our league rules allow for, but it's pretty significant and further reduces the value of the higher draft picks who went for it at the end of the season.

    Imagine you had had the number 1 pick (I know you're probably the points WC, but follow me here).
    Assuming we continue with the snake draft, your 2nd round and 4th round picks are late in the round.
    Say you have Luis Castillo previously drafted in the 5th (yes, I know GDN has him, again imagine here).
    With a 1 round bonus, you get to keep him in the 4th. He's a likely 1st or 2nd rounder, with a normal keeper you're getting him in the 3rd, which is still valuable; but now you get to use your high 3rd round on another high rated player and increase the value of your 4th by keeping Castillo. You have essentially increase the value of two picks simply by getting a 1 round bonus.

    If we were to expand to a losers bracket and give the same rewards to the best 2 losers that the Champjon and runner-up get the snake draft becomes less of an issue from a pick weight value perspective at least for the top two picks.

  14. #64
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Sure there are scenarios where that works out. But you had to use 2 different hypotheticals to get me there. So let’s look at my actual team’s potential keepers:

    Eugenio Suarez - 18th rd
    Yordan Alverez - minors
    Bo Bichette - minors
    Matthew Boyd - 20th
    Mike Clevinger - 19th
    Jack Flaherty - 22nd
    Frankie Montas - 12th

    I guess you could argue that keeping montas in the 11th instead of the 10th is a bonus but is it really all that valuable? You said yourself that after the 2nd round all the rounds have about similar value so does it really matter 10th vs 11th? Does the round bonus reward my team in the slightest? Even if I win the championship and get awarded multiple bonuses?

  15. #65
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    Quote Originally Posted by JMP08 View Post
    Sure there are scenarios where that works out. But you had to use 2 different hypotheticals to get me there. So let’s look at my actual team’s potential keepers:

    Eugenio Suarez - 18th rd
    Yordan Alverez - minors
    Bo Bichette - minors
    Matthew Boyd - 20th
    Mike Clevinger - 19th
    Jack Flaherty - 22nd
    Frankie Montas - 12th

    I guess you could argue that keeping montas in the 11th instead of the 10th is a bonus but is it really all that valuable? You said yourself that after the 2nd round all the rounds have about similar value so does it really matter 10th vs 11th? Does the round bonus reward my team in the slightest? Even if I win the championship and get awarded multiple bonuses?
    Correct, with those keepers it wouldn't make sense. For those teams that are actually fighting for the 1st pick would they make different choices about trading their 3rd through 7th picks to contending teams if by staying in they have a better chance at increasing pick value at the top of the draft? I certainly would be more reluctant to trade a high round pick.

  16. #66
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    For me any discussion/change to keepers should be done next year.

    Changing draft order should be discussed now and I would like to try and narrow down and get some voting going before end of the season.

    The ideas that have been discussed:

    Keep as snake
    Change to standard (same order each round)
    Rotating 4 rounds (standard first, grouped random, reverse grouped random, reversed)
    Rotating half rounds (standard first, grouped 10 random, reverse grouped 10 random)

    Here's the basis:
    Snake is effectively even for all teams with an argument that the top picks are at a slightly great disadvantage
    Standard gives a large benefit to the top picks and puts playoff teams at a disadvantage
    Rotating 4 rounds provides a graded distribution of picks, top picks get the most overall value, proffer teams do not get seriously disadvantaged
    Rotating groups of 10 gives a large distribution of average pick. This is the most random.

    Any others? Does anyone want me to publish out the worksheets I've been using to calculate/weigh in?

    I think it's better to get a vote going now to see if we can resolve before end of year.

  17. #67
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    Re: NYYFans FB League - Discussion Regarding Possible Draft Changes

    My thought is that both the draft and the discussion of keepers should be linked.

    I think there should be more incentive to win the league and more incentives for doing well in the league. With that, I think the snake draft should be kept and the order changed where the worst team gets the first pick, the second worst gets the 2nd pick etc. The reward/incentive should come from the keeper changes, not from the draft order.

    I love the suggestion that several teams get involved in a post season loser's bracket to earn a keeper incentive.

    The main reason for any of this discussion is to keep teams playing to win for as long as possible.

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