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  1. #3976
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    If you played a three game series, and in each game you had a 70% chance of winning that game, then the chance of sweeping is 34%; taking 2 of 3 is 44%; taking 1 of 3 is 19%; and getting swept is 3%. It all depends on what your edge is in each game.

  2. #3977
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Hicks needs extra rest.

  3. #3978
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    I had read somewhere that a big part of his turnaround was letting an achilles injury fully heal this past offseason in addition to tweaking his batting stance. Great read, thanks for that.

  4. #3979

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparks View Post
    While he wasn't getting the results (5-28), Ford did show great patience at the plate (8 BBs) and had competitive ABs. I guess his defensive skills aren't up to par is the reason they traded for Morales than bring him back up.
    I liked what I saw from Ford at the plate a lot. He walked a ton and hit the ball hard. He just got extremely unlucky in a SSS.

    His 92.5 average exit velo, .313 xBA, .404 xWOBA, 52.9% hard hits, and 11.1% barrels were all very good if not elite.

    People saying he "stunk" really weren't paying attention.

  5. #3980
    God Bless the Scooter NYYFAN's Avatar
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    Jul 2001

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    I would guess if you took any 100 3 games sires it would look
    Quote Originally Posted by ChinMusic View Post
    If you played a three game series, and in each game you had a 70% chance of winning that game, then the chance of sweeping is 34%; taking 2 of 3 is 44%; taking 1 of 3 is 19%; and getting swept is 3%. It all depends on what your edge is in each game.
    I would like to see the percentages based on historical facts not assuming a team would win 70% of the time. How many teams win 70% of their games?
    "Show me what you got!" Big head from "Rick and Morty"

  6. #3981

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ChinMusic View Post
    The odds aren't against us if we win the first game. The odds of winning the second game are still 70%, assuming he quoted accurate odds. He is saying that the odds of sweeping before the first game is played is 49%. After the first game is played our odds of sweeping will either be 0% or 70%, using his numbers.
    I was just throwing out the number 70% because it seemed reasonable though it likely is an overestimate. There was no official source for that number. I donít get why youíre choosing to wait until game one is played to determine who the game two starter is though. Youíre just going to give the game two starter a few minutes advance notice?

    Game one is just one game anyway. It doesnít make sense to let it dictate the rotation. Itís not like you get a trophy for sweeping the doubleheader. Itís no more important than any other two game winning streak. If these games were on consecutive days, they would count the same and you wouldnít change the game two starter based on who won the previous game the day before.

  7. #3982

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    So funny, activate Hicks only to rest him in game 1. I know he is gonna play in G2, it just looks funny.

  8. #3983

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYYFAN View Post
    I would guess if you took any 100 3 games sires it would look

    I would like to see the percentages based on historical facts not assuming a team would win 70% of the time. How many teams win 70% of their games?
    I was just throwing the number 70% out there. It was an intentional overestimate. The point was that even if the odds are 70% in one game, the odds of sweeping are still less than 50%.

  9. #3984
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Hicks vs Hess (game 1) 1 for 2 with HR
    Hicks for Cashner (game 2) 6 for 13 with 2 Doubles

    So maybe bigger sample size went into it and also the yankees don't have a ton of people left handed batters (i know he's a switch).

  10. #3985
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    Nov 2004

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bonn1997 View Post
    I was just throwing out the number 70% because it seemed reasonable though it likely is an overestimate. There was no official source for that number. I donít get why youíre choosing to wait until game one is played to determine who the game two starter is though. Youíre just going to give the game two starter a few minutes advance notice?

    Game one is just one game anyway. It doesnít make sense to let it dictate the rotation. Itís not like you get a trophy for sweeping the doubleheader. Itís no more important than any other two game winning streak. If these games were on consecutive days, they would count the same and you wouldnít change the game two starter based on who won the previous game the day before.
    My point is that there shouldn't be a game 2 now with a weak roster. If its rescheduled on an off day later on, you don't have to use an AAA pitcher. And our offense is also diminished now. The Yankees, as the home team, has the final say about the makeup date. They chose not to maximize our chances of winning these games.

  11. #3986
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ChinMusic View Post
    Hicks needs extra rest.



    LOL...


    It does sound funny, but I expected that.. No way they going to toss Hicks out there for 18 potential innings today the day he comes back..
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  12. #3987

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ChinMusic View Post
    My point is that there shouldn't be a game 2 now with a weak roster. If its rescheduled on an off day later on, you don't have to use an AAA pitcher. And our offense is also diminished now. The Yankees, as the home team, has the final say about the makeup date. They chose not to maximize our chances of winning these games.
    I fully agree about not having game 2 now.

  13. #3988
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    What is with this Gardner in the 6 hole? He's the guy you want up following your best hitters? He's hitting about .150 over the past 6 weeks. The hottest hitter Gio batting 7th. I don't understand this. You're giving away outs right in the middle of your lineup.

  14. #3989
    First Name: Keninovich hardrain's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ymike673 View Post
    Could even start Cessa. He was going to start Monday's game.
    Mike, someone hacked your account.
    Standings: Big Inning 32-16; Blue Cut 27-21; Shoo Fly 26-22; Husk 22-26; Frank Pierce 21-27; Iowa City 16-32.

  15. #3990

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Boone thinks Morales will be available for Game 2.

  16. #3991
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYYFAN View Post
    You would think you would want Hicks out there in the warmer part of the day with his back.
    Coming off two off days and an off day tomorrow. Really hope that other than Sanchez/Romine Boone will play the full lineup in both games.

  17. #3992

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYYFAN View Post
    I would guess if you took any 100 3 games sires it would look

    I would like to see the percentages based on historical facts not assuming a team would win 70% of the time. How many teams win 70% of their games?
    It's not about winning 70% of your games overall, something almost no team has ever done. It's about winning 70% against a particular opponent in a particular year, which happens all the time.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  18. #3993
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by philleotardo View Post
    Boone thinks Morales will be available for Game 2.
    Oh joy of joys.

  19. #3994
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ymike673 View Post
    Oh joy of joys.
    One day you will post something optimistic, and on that day, the world will spontaneously combust.

  20. #3995
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by philleotardo View Post
    Boone thinks Morales will be available for Game 2.
    Probably should have DHed Gary in game one then. Just sayin.
    The Good News: The rested Yankees will be ready for the Pennant Race that resting the Yankees will create!

  21. #3996
    God Bless the Scooter NYYFAN's Avatar
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    Jul 2001

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    doubleheader stat article:

    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ility-analysis

    Theoretically, a sweep of a doubleheader should happen 50 percent of the time. There’s only two options here: a sweep or not a sweep. I’m not worried about home team sweeps or away team sweeps, just sweeps alone. So, let’s dig into the data.

    Using data from Retrosheet, I found that there have been 231 doubleheaders from 2008 to 2017. How many were sweeps? 120. That’s approximately 51.9 percent of all doubleheaders. This amazes me because the figure regresses so well to the theoretical probability. It’s like flipping a coin; the more you do, the more likely you will see your heads and tails figures move towards 50 percent.
    "Show me what you got!" Big head from "Rick and Morty"

  22. #3997
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    Today would be German's normal day in rotation - he last pitched on Friday, so today is the fifth day. CC last pitched on Saturday, so his going Friday will actually be on a day of rest, as would Tanaka on Saturday (last Sunday).

    Pushing German back to Friday would me pitching on seven days rest for each of the next three starters. Not sure that approach is the best idea, especially when these delays were not planned for (i.e. - extra throwing in between).
    Pushing German back means you have German, Sabathia and Tanaka against the Rays. German going today means Sabathia, Tanaka and ? against the Rays. You want Adam's, Cessa facing the Rays instead of the Orioles? Even pitching German today and pushing Happ back to Friday would be better.

  23. #3998
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYYFAN View Post
    doubleheader stat article:

    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ility-analysis

    Theoretically, a sweep of a doubleheader should happen 50 percent of the time. Thereís only two options here: a sweep or not a sweep. Iím not worried about home team sweeps or away team sweeps, just sweeps alone. So, letís dig into the data.

    Using data from Retrosheet, I found that there have been 231 doubleheaders from 2008 to 2017. How many were sweeps? 120. Thatís approximately 51.9 percent of all doubleheaders. This amazes me because the figure regresses so well to the theoretical probability. Itís like flipping a coin; the more you do, the more likely you will see your heads and tails figures move towards 50 percent.

    Right, but the issue with them is that you are not just desiring a sweep, you are desiring YOUR TEAM to sweep, which makes the liklihood of the desired outcome far, far worse..


    In reality, a DH sweep by any team is no more or less likely from a large statistical view as winning a single game. Once you begin the second game, the first game has a winner. You are just now picking that same team to win a single game..



    It is not that sweeping a doubleheader is hard in general, because one team will always have a single game probability to do it, it is that when we talk about a sweep, we here are talking about the Yankees sweeping. The odds on that drop because of the probability that was explained before..


    It's the age old coin flip trick on elementary school math tests..


    "Your friend flips a penny 100 times, and it lands on heads every single time. What are the odds that it lands on tails when he flips it for the 101st time?" Of course the answer is still 50/50..


    But if the question was instead " what are the odds 101 flips in a row land on heads?" then better get out the calculators and be prepared for lottery like odds.



    Unfortunately for doubleheaders we are looking for the second outcome above, just a lot less coin flips...
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  24. #3999

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    Man, Frazier went from being really quite before his swing to a lot of movement. Not sure who advised him to make that change.

  25. #4000

    Re: 2019 Regular Season Thread

    either the yanks have had a bad string of umpires or the ability of them to call balls and strikes has really regressed. I mean some of these calls are really bad.

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