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  1. #26

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Who blamed Snell for his manager having a quick hook? Itís just that his stats have to be understood in light of that.

    Regardless, pitching more quality innings simply makes a pitcher more valuable to his team. Look how it shows up in Quality Starts where Snell had only 19 this year vs Verlander with 26.
    The knock you have on snell is a direct result of the managers actions.

  2. #27
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    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Who blamed Snell for his manager having a quick hook? It’s just that his stats have to be understood in light of that.

    Regardless, pitching more quality innings simply makes a pitcher more valuable to his team. Look how it shows up in Quality Starts where Snell had only 19 this year vs Verlander with 26.
    For me the quality of Snell's innings out weigh the extra innings from Verlander. For you it is the other way around.
    That is I weigh his 0.63 ERA advantage over Verlander's 33.1 IP but you weigh his extra 33 IP more.
    But I really wouldn't be upset if either win the award this year.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  3. #28
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    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    I considered Treinen, thinking that with all the flawed starters this year, it just might be the season for a reliever. But there are a couple of negatives that turned me against him. First, I asked how could a Closer with that low an ERA have only 37 saves pitching for a team as good as the Aís? One reason is that he blew 5 saves. As a result he had only the 5th highest save % in the AL. Thatís not bad but itís certainly not dominant and for a reliever to be considered fo CY, he has to be dominant IMO.

    The other factor in Treinenís case is that ERA tells only part of the story for a reliever. He inherited 19 runners and allowed 6 of them to score, which puts him a notch below average in % of inherited runners scored. Average (more or less) is not bad, but again itís not dominant. I couldnít go with him for CY especially in a season in which Diaz posted one of the highest Saves totals of all time. Treinen may not even be the best Closer this year, much less the best pitcher overall. Just my 2 cents.
    Treinen had 2 losses. He had 2 more wins than losses and blown saves combined, which is something Rivera did when he went 5-3 with 1 blown save in 1995 but never while he was a closer. Fernando Rodney didn't do that when he had a 0.60 ERA. Zach Britton didn't do that when he had a 0.54 ERA. Eric Gagne did that once, which was in 2004. Among the top ten in career saves, the only pitchers to do that while being a closer for the whole season were Dennis Eckersley in 1992 and Joe Nathan in 2006.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    2. Treinen had a fabulous ERA but his responsibilities go beyond earned runs if heís an elite reliever. He allowed only 7 earned runs in 79 innings, which is great. But he allowed 6 inherited runners to score which get charged to someone else. As a practical matter, it doesnít matter who they get charged to and both pitchers had a hand in allowing the runs. Those extra runs cut his effectiveness almost in half.

    3. I have to say that Iím not a big fan of the earned run stat. Someoneís judgment takes the pitcher off the hook for a run that scored on his watch. A run is a run. My opinion may be in the minority, but Treinen gave up 5 unearned Runs, which is a lot to give up in less than 80 innings. When you add these to his inherited runners scored, he wanít so invincible as his numbers might make him seem.
    I disagree with what I underlined because it's not like most pitchers don't allow any inherited runners to score. Furthermore, if you think he allowed 2 more inherited runners to score than average given how many runners he inherited, and you add 2 to his earned runs, his ERA would still be 1.01.

    If a closer has a 3 run lead and blows the save by allowing 2 earned runs and 1 unearned run, he pitched poorly. If a closer has a 1 run lead and blows the save by allowing 0 earned runs and 1 unearned run, that's better. To make up terms, Treinen had 2 unearned blown saves and 1 unearned loss in games he did not allow an earned run in. Treinen's blown save were with a 1 run lead four times and with a 2 run lead once. He entered with a lead of at least 2 runs in 34 games, which was half of his games, and had 1 blown save in those games, when he allowed 3 runs with none of them earned.

  4. #29

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by fightingirish595 View Post
    The knock you have on snell is a direct result of the managers actions.
    Exactly. If his manager had confidence in him, why was he pulling him? I guess if you want a 5-6 inning pitcher, Snellís your guy.

  5. #30
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    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Exactly. If his manager had confidence in him, why was he pulling him? I guess if you want a 5-6 inning pitcher, Snellís your guy.
    I'm sure if given the choice most folks would take Bob Gibson's 304 IP of 1.12 ERA ball with 28 CGs and 13 SO in 34 starts but it's not that game anymore.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  6. #31

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    I'm sure if given the choice most folks would take Bob Gibson's 304 IP of 1.12 ERA ball with 28 CGs and 13 SO in 34 starts but it's not that game anymore.
    No, it’s not. But I’m not looking for 300 innings, I’d settle for 200. I can’t expect the best pitcher in the league to average even 6 innings per start? And I can’t even expect better than a 60% rate of Quality Starts?

    Snell averaged more than 3 walks per 9. That’s a problem. Control has been an issue his entire career - both majors and minors. I don’t know to what extent his early exits from games had to do with the team tracking his walks and pulling him before he self-destructed. But I can certainly imagine that it might have been a factor. If they protected him and by so doing, helped him have a great season with some gaudy stats, that’s great. But it suggests that he was likely not the best pitcher in the league.

    Just making my argument for why I favor Verlander. I recognize that it comes down to preferences. Snell certainly had a great season.
    Last edited by Bill Marsh; 11-14-18 at 11:03 PM.

  7. #32

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Congrats to deGrom and Snell on being recognized officially for their great pitching in 2018.

  8. #33

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Itís mind boggling just how good deGrom was this year, which shows just how bad the Mets were that they couldít get him more than 10 wins. Here are some numbers:

    - 1st in ERA (1.70)
    - 1st in ERA+ (216)
    - 1st in FIP (1.98)
    - 1st in HR/9 (0.41)
    - 1st in WAR (10.0)
    - 1st in Quality Starts % (88%)
    - 1st/T in Quality Starts (28)
    - 2nd in WHIP (0.91)
    - 2nd in Innings (217)
    - 2nd in Strikeouts (269)
    - 2nd in K:BB (5.8)

    That is one dominant season! To think that one voter voted for someone else.

  9. #34

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Exactly. If his manager had confidence in him, why was he pulling him? I guess if you want a 5-6 inning pitcher, Snellís your guy.
    You canít prove his manager didnít have confidence in him. Perhaps it was philosophy

  10. #35
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Itís mind boggling just how good deGrom was this year, which shows just how bad the Mets were that they couldít get him more than 10 wins. Here are some numbers:

    - 1st in ERA (1.70)
    - 1st in ERA+ (216)
    - 1st in FIP (1.98)
    - 1st in HR/9 (0.41)
    - 1st in WAR (10.0)
    - 1st in Quality Starts % (88%)
    - 1st/T in Quality Starts (28)
    - 2nd in WHIP (0.91)
    - 2nd in Innings (217)
    - 2nd in Strikeouts (269)
    - 2nd in K:BB (5.8)

    That is one dominant season! To think that one voter voted for someone else.

    There is always at least one "get my name in the paper 15 minutes of fame guy" out there..


    Wait until Mariano is up for the hall of fame, and at least one or two fools decide he is not a hall of famer.
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  11. #36

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by fightingirish595 View Post
    You canít prove his manager didnít have confidence in him. Perhaps it was philosophy
    And we canít prove his ERA would have been higher if he had to pitch more innings, but itís highly likely.

  12. #37

    Re: CY Young Conversation

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    And we canít prove his ERA would have been higher if he had to pitch more innings, but itís highly likely.
    Thatís irrelevant

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