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  1. #8551

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanks12009 View Post
    I don't understand this complaint at all. People were losing their minds about Drury not getting called up, and now have completely turned on him in 5 games.

    Andujar, while he has had a good season overall, has not been good at all lately.
    He didn't need to play over Drury. Could've played over Walker or Wade.

  2. #8552

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanks12009 View Post
    It's just simply not true to say that games in July count just as much. When you are playing in July, you have August and September to make up ground. When you are playing in September, you have increasing less and less games to catch up.

    People are acting like the sky is literally falling, and worst case scenario we are 3.5 games back after today. We will be getting Torres and Sanchez back sometime after the AS break, and we likely will be getting improved via trades at SP.
    If you win the winnable games against historically bad teams in July, guess what, you won't have to make up ground in September.

  3. #8553

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Carsten Charles View Post
    If you win the winnable games against historically bad teams in July, guess what, you won't have to make up ground in September.
    If you expect a great baseball team to win almost all of their games against bad teams, you are going to be disappointed.

  4. #8554
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    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SLURPEE View Post
    Offense a bit overrated.
    Kind of the thing people keep missing. We really need a legitimate upgrade at 1B.

    We can keep riding Bird over next week or so, but trade needs to happen if he doesn't show up. Can't rely on Walker, or Drury. That non double play Walker didn't make altered the entire game.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  5. #8555

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanks12009 View Post
    If you expect a great baseball team to win almost all of their games against bad teams, you are going to be disappointed.
    Well our direct competition is 9-1 against them. 3-4 is unacceptable. Hell, even if they win the next 3, 6-4 is still unacceptable against a team this bad.

  6. #8556

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Should have had Higgy suicide squeeze. There was zero chance he was going to get hit a ball to the outfield.

  7. #8557
    NYYF Triple Crown

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    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pakimobzta View Post
    Give me one good reason why I shouldn't break this TV right now.

    You'd have to clean up the mess and buy a new one
    [

  8. #8558
    Booney SLURPEE's Avatar
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    Brooklyn, New York

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    They play down to the level of their opponents a bit. YES just showed that their 15th in baseball against sub .500 teams. Best in baseball against .500 or better.

  9. #8559

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Didi 3rd yet again. Boone clueless as usual.

    Gardner
    Judge
    Didi
    Stanton
    Bird
    Andujar
    Clint
    Romine
    Walker

  10. #8560

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Sox up 2-0 already.
    Let's Go Yankees!

  11. #8561

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Carsten Charles View Post
    Didi 3rd yet again. Boone clueless as usual.

    Gardner
    Judge
    Didi
    Stanton
    Bird
    Andujar
    Clint
    Romine
    Walker
    Agreed on Didi. Hopefully once Torres/Sanchez are back, he is hitting around the 7th spot where he should be.

  12. #8562
    NYYF Legend


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    I live by the Sound

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pakimobzta View Post
    Sox up 2-0 already.
    It's gotten comical. Really, they should make the Red Sox play with a pitcher, catcher, one infielder and one outfielder like that old "King and His Court" softball team. MAYBE they'd lose a game now and then when not playing the Yankees. Maybe.

  13. #8563
    Devoted Member

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    Chicago, IL

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SLURPEE View Post
    Offense a bit overrated.
    Iím not sure it is.

    Itís in desperate need of a LH in the middle of the order.

    Judge has had a good season. Stanton is coming back and has been hot. Torres has been on fire from the bottom of the order. Weíve made so much ground on the strength of the bottom of our order. Between Andujar and Torres, itís given pitchers zero break. Itís made up for the slumps of the middle of the order.

    With Hicks coming on and hopefully the real Gary Sanchez coming back, the order has a ton of positives.

    Whatís hurting us is our dominant RH lineup, and lack of any production from 1B. Moustaskas males a ton of sense, if he can play the position.

  14. #8564
    Calls a tool a tool
    Join Date
    Nov 2004

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob035 View Post
    You just made up a whole bunch of numbers to prove nothing. When you make the numbers up, of course you can make them say whatever you want. Those percentages are not even close to reality.

    Going by the Vegas lines. The odds were actually around 61% we win the Cessa game and 69% the CC game.

    This gives us a 42% chance of a sweep, 12% chance of getting swept, and 46% of splitting.

    The assertion that Boone is giving up the game against the formidable Oís because Yefry Ramirez is on the mound is laughable.

    Moot now, but what you posted means nothing. Vegas lines mean nothing. Those are set to get enough bettors to bet the underdog, so that there is enough money on each side of the bet, so that the winners are covered by the losers and Vegas doesnt have to make up the difference.. Then Vegas takes a cut from each bet placed and they cant lose. Its called arbitrage, and is not an accurate esimate of the actual odds of a team wining a game. Vegas is like the dealer in a casino at a poker table. They make money from the rake from the pot not by playing in the game, and in bookmaking, if the money bet is balanced, its impossible for them to lose money. Thats how they set their odds. But even so, taking the numbers you posted, if you were to switch pitcher matchups the odds in the 69% game would go lower and the 61% game would go higher, which, in theory, will give a higher sweep percentage. Youre ccalculating that percentage as the product of two independent trials, in this case 69% x 61%.

    But 65%x65% > 64%x66% > 67%x63% > 68%x62% > 69% x61%

    That product goes higher when the two numbers youre multiplying are moved closer together. The more you take resources from 1 trial(game) and put it in the other to create a mismatch, those 2 percentages will diverge, one going higher and 1 going lower--and your chance of a sweep goes down. Its exactly the same mathematical problem as maximizing the area of a rectangle when perimeter is set. That max comes when the rectangle is a square.

    And that was the original point I was trying to make. Not that they were going to split, but that Boone was not optmizing their chance to sweep.

  15. #8565
    Calls a tool a tool
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    Nov 2004

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob035 View Post
    In events with heavy action, yes the lines are driven by equalizing the action. Is that what youíre referring to?

    For MLB the lines are usually pretty close to the expected probability. Fivethirtyeight has predictions based on their models which are close to Vegas (70% and 65% versus 69% and 61%). Regardless they are much better than made up numbers.
    Dude youre missing the simple mathematical principle that when you square a number, that product will always be higher than the product obtained when you subtract from 1 multiplier and add it to the other multiplier.

    70 x 70 > 69X71 > 65 X 75 > 63x77 > 50x90

    1,000,456 X 1,00,456 > 1,000,556 X 1,000,356 > 1,010,556 X 990,356

    So the actual numbers dont really matter, because the principle will hold true regardless of the actual numbers.

  16. #8566

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pakimobzta View Post
    Sox up 2-0 already.
    People scoffed at me when I said they would not lose until after the ASG. It's looking very possible. And now, they don't play another team with a record above .500 until July 30th. Philly and it's in Fenway. Not that any of this matters since the Ray's Rangers and Os our cleaning our clocks.
    The Continuance of Being Great, is Getting Number Twenty-Eight

  17. #8567
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    Nov 2004

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparks View Post
    Both have been dreadful. I assume Drury will return when Walker is cut loose. When being the key word.

    Seems the Yankees have stopped battling once they get their bell rung nowadays. Complete opposite of their demeanor early in the season when they were behind.
    I guess not until they secure the extra year.

  18. #8568
    Calls a tool a tool
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    Nov 2004

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanks12009 View Post
    Surely there is no overreaction going on here. When we win the next 3, people will calm down.
    Bal is collectively playing about 1 win in 4 against all comers. That means a 500 club expects to take 3 out of 4 from them. A 667 club is looking to sweep 4 games from them.

  19. #8569

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Kind of the thing people keep missing. We really need a legitimate upgrade at 1B.

    We can keep riding Bird over next week or so, but trade needs to happen if he doesn't show up. Can't rely on Walker, or Drury. That non double play Walker didn't make altered the entire game.
    Actually I'm in 100% agreement with you.

  20. #8570
    Calls a tool a tool
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    Nov 2004

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    IDK, something about not making the 3rd out at 3B.

  21. #8571
    Booney SLURPEE's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Yeah, like I've been saying, Yankees aren't giving Didi a contract.

    I'm thinking Torres moves to SS.

  22. #8572

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ChinMusic View Post
    Dude youre missing the simple mathematical principle that when you square a number, that product will always be higher than the product obtained when you subtract from 1 multiplier and add it to the other multiplier.

    70 x 70 > 69X71 > 65 X 75 > 63x77 > 50x90

    1,000,456 X 1,00,456 > 1,000,556 X 1,000,356 > 1,010,556 X 990,356

    So the actual numbers dont really matter, because the principle will hold true regardless of the actual numbers.
    You don’t have to explain basic math to me or anyone here who’s taken 9th grade algebra. You do have to explain your flawed underlying assumptions. Why are you holding the sum of the probabilities constant? The real world doesn’t work that way. And why are you treating Ramirez as a SP to be feared after his 14 IP this year?

    My basic point stands. There is no way Boone chose his SPs to have CC avoid Ramirez in hopes of a split. That is absurd.
    Last edited by Rob035; 07-10-18 at 01:32 AM.

  23. #8573

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SLURPEE View Post
    Yeah, like I've been saying, Yankees aren't giving Didi a contract.

    I'm thinking Torres moves to SS.
    If thats the case, just another severe lack of foresight by the Yankees.
    Baseball games are not won with a formula. If you can hit, they will find a place for you

  24. #8574
    Quote Originally Posted by fightingirish595 View Post
    If thats the case, just another severe lack of foresight by the Yankees.
    What? Thank him for his prime years and move on. Iím not a fan of giving a 30 year old shortstop a massive deal.

  25. #8575
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    The eternal state of optimism that the Yankees will win it all

    Re: 2018 Regular Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by theDurk View Post
    Traditionally, the "senior" pitcher gets to choose which game of a DH he wants to pitch. It don't get more senior than CC vs. Cessa. This may simply be CC's choice to pitch the opener, perhaps even before the matchups were available, rather than a strategic management decision. Were I the manager, it would be a strategic decision, and I'd make CC work for his W, but tradition is a big deal with Boone and the organization.

    Just putting that out there, not saying it's true in this case.
    While I agree with your "veteran" logic, I think the decision to throw CC in the first game was an organizational decision.

    Had they thrown Cessa in the first game, they would have made the Drury move before the DH, not in the middle of the DH.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

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