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  1. #226
    NYYF Legend

    ClownPickle's Avatar
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    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    OK, thanks.

    So we're talking about 18 balls in play against RHP and 16 against LHP, that is really not even worth talking about.

    A very slightly larger sample size has him at 6-29 against non-Estrada righties, with no home runs. That was my original point, you can claim that he's had bad luck and has hit the ball hard in those 29 ABs, but 15 of them were Ks.
    It's not a 'he can definitely hit righties' or 'he definitely can't.'

    I was more opposed to you saying, 'he's still shown no signs of being able to hit righties with velocity'

    He has shown signs, and he just showed it again.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  2. #227

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Austin definitely deserves a spot on this roster, especially after his hot start. Should he keep the 1st base job over Bird? I don't think so. But they gotta find a way to get his bat in the lineup, and he should be in the lineup vs. lefties every time.

    Vs. lefties I would go:
    Hicks
    Judge
    Didi
    Stanton LF
    Sanchez
    Bird 1b
    Austin DH
    Miggy
    Torres

    There are plenty of ways to get him into the lineup vs. righties as well.

  3. #228
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Huntington, NY

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    I have to admit, even a week ago I was not really worried about where Tyler Austin would be when Bird gets back, but it is hard not to think about what to do here?
    The kid is playing at a really high level. I want Bird back in the worst way, lefty bat that I still think can be monstrous for us if he can ever stay healthy. But how the heck can we just jettison Austin right now? He's an XBH waiting to happen, even against righties. And he's more than playing adequate D, which is not something we can can about everyone on the team..

    It's about to get interesting. Personally right now the only use I see for Walker is for him to be here when we get word on Austin's suspension and then he serves it. But once we start getting guys back, like Drury and Bird, it's a question mark. Don't get me wrong, it's a good problem to have, a year ago we could not find a major league caliber first baseman anywhere, so I don't want to complain, but it IS a problem to find all these guys time..
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  4. #229

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    OK, thanks.

    So we're talking about 18 balls in play against RHP and 16 against LHP, that is really not even worth talking about.

    A very slightly larger sample size has him at 6-29 against non-Estrada righties, with no home runs. That was my original point, you can claim that he's had bad luck and has hit the ball hard in those 29 ABs, but 15 of them were Ks.
    So omit the at bats against Estrada because.....

  5. #230

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by Melancynic View Post
    So omit the at bats against Estrada because.....
    Because he tops out around 90, and the theory until yesterday was that Austin had trouble with righties with normal velocity, which the numbers backed up until that Lynn AB yesterday. You don't last very long in MLB as a 1B if you can't hit RHP, so hopefully that's a sign of things to come.

  6. #231

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    Because he tops out around 90, and the theory until yesterday was that Austin had trouble with righties with normal velocity, which the numbers backed up until that Lynn AB yesterday. You don't last very long in MLB as a 1B if you can't hit RHP, so hopefully that's a sign of things to come.
    I didn't see the velocity caveat in your argument until now. Without it, it looked like you were cherrypicking to support your argument. I don't agree with the premise but at least I see where you're coming from now.

  7. #232
    Slow in, Fast out ThePinStripes's Avatar
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    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by aeromac76 View Post
    I have to admit, even a week ago I was not really worried about where Tyler Austin would be when Bird gets back, but it is hard not to think about what to do here?
    The kid is playing at a really high level. I want Bird back in the worst way, lefty bat that I still think can be monstrous for us if he can ever stay healthy. But how the heck can we just jettison Austin right now? He's an XBH waiting to happen, even against righties. And he's more than playing adequate D, which is not something we can can about everyone on the team..

    It's about to get interesting. Personally right now the only use I see for Walker is for him to be here when we get word on Austin's suspension and then he serves it. But once we start getting guys back, like Drury and Bird, it's a question mark. Don't get me wrong, it's a good problem to have, a year ago we could not find a major league caliber first baseman anywhere, so I don't want to complain, but it IS a problem to find all these guys time..
    We need to trade some for pitching. It's like watching fruit spoil on tree branches.
    A fool and his money can throw one heck of a party!

  8. #233
    NYYF Legend

    CalYankeeFan's Avatar
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    Palmdale, CA

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanks12009 View Post
    Austin definitely deserves a spot on this roster, especially after his hot start. Should he keep the 1st base job over Bird? I don't think so. But they gotta find a way to get his bat in the lineup, and he should be in the lineup vs. lefties every time.

    Vs. lefties I would go:
    Hicks
    Judge
    Didi
    Stanton LF
    Sanchez
    Bird 1b
    Austin DH
    Miggy
    Torres

    There are plenty of ways to get him into the lineup vs. righties as well.
    That lineup makes me smile.
    If they ask who was our star, give them 25 names, and if you forget our names, just tell them we were Yankees.

  9. #234

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by Melancynic View Post
    So omit the at bats against Estrada because.....
    It conveniently supports an argument.

  10. #235

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by J-Rhod0406 View Post
    It conveniently supports an argument.
    It's not an argument, I want the guy to succeed. It's pointing out something as opposed to ignoring it, it's not arbitrary, but I've explained it already multiple times so whatever.

  11. #236

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    It's not an argument, I want the guy to succeed. It's pointing out something as opposed to ignoring it, it's not arbitrary, but I've explained it already multiple times so whatever.
    You having a theory and others disagreeing does not mean anyone is "ignoring" something.

  12. #237

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by Melancynic View Post
    You having a theory and others disagreeing does not mean anyone is "ignoring" something.
    Heh, it's not a theory, it's just facts. Blindly looking at the splits in this case is ignoring the specifics, 3 of his 4 HRs off RHP are off a junkballer, so they're irrelevant to his ability to hit righties with a real fastball (in other words, almost all of them).

    Again, I want the guy to succeed, I hope he starts crushing righties, but he hasn't shown many signs of that yet, and the K rate is horrible.

  13. #238

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    Heh, it's not a theory, it's just facts. Blindly looking at the splits in this case is ignoring the specifics, 3 of his 4 HRs off RHP are off a junkballer, so they're irrelevant to his ability to hit righties with a real fastball (in other words, almost all of them).

    Again, I want the guy to succeed, I hope he starts crushing righties, but he hasn't shown many signs of that yet, and the K rate is horrible.
    It's opinion that you're presenting as facts.

  14. #239

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    That's like calling L/R splits an opinion.

  15. #240

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by Melancynic View Post
    It's opinion that you're presenting as facts.
    If he had them off 95 mph fastballs the argument would be that he can't hit the offspeed pitches.

    People act like there is something unique to Marco Estrada and there aren't dozens of pitchers out there who profile just like him.

  16. #241

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by J-Rhod0406 View Post
    If he had them off 95 mph fastballs the argument would be that he can't hit the offspeed pitches.
    This isn't a 2018 only thing, this is the same question people had about him coming into the season.

    People act like there is something unique to Marco Estrada and there aren't dozens of pitchers out there who profile just like him.
    He's pretty unique, I'd like to see a list of three other RH SPs currently in baseball who max out as low as he does.

  17. #242

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    He did hit one off Lynn, that was very nice to see. The K rate is not sustainable, though, and I am someone who thinks K rates for hitters almost never matter.

  18. #243

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    This isn't a 2018 only thing, this is the same question people had about him coming into the season.



    He's pretty unique, I'd like to see a list of three other RH SPs currently in baseball who max out as low as he does.
    Dallas Keuchel comes to mind. He isn't Right handed but he is an example that there are plenty of big league pitchers who don't have blazing fastballs.

    I can't load the list on my phone but I know there are more if Keuchel has a softer average velocity than Estrada.

  19. #244

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Looking more closely at the data, it isn't the fastball that has been giving him issues it has been the slider.

  20. #245

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Soft tossing lefties are much less rare, let me know if you find many righties (Iím genuinely curious). Jered Weaver was one, but heís out of baseball now.

    I really didnít expect so much pushback on this, rational and irrational. Austin came into the year with questions about his ability to hit major league RH pitching, all Iím saying is that the HRs against Estrada make his current splits misleading as far as how he projects going forward against other righties. I hope he succeeds, I really do.

  21. #246

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by J-Rhod0406 View Post
    Looking more closely at the data, it isn't the fastball that has been giving him issues it has been the slider.
    I think itís the threat of the fastball, Estrada doesnít have that in his arsenal.

  22. #247

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    Soft tossing lefties are much less rare, let me know if you find many righties (Iím genuinely curious). Jered Weaver was one, but heís out of baseball now.

    I really didnít expect so much pushback on this, rational and irrational. Austin came into the year with questions about his ability to hit major league RH pitching, all Iím saying is that the HRs against Estrada make his current splits misleading as far as how he projects going forward against other righties. I hope he succeeds, I really do.
    Yeah I want to look into this a bit more. Estrada's average fastball is 89.1 which doesn't strike me as Jared Weaver like given his was 83 mph.

    I don't think Austin is going to continue hitting like he is but I don't think a .260/.340/.500 slash is out of his capacity either which is nothing to sneeze at.

    I am very skeptical of Greg Bird given his injury history and i don't think you can project out over the course of an entore year based upon his hot September and decent October last year that I have seen people want to do.

  23. #248

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    And this is the same Marco Estrada who baffled the Yankees entire lineup on multiple frustrating occasions. Confirnation bias..IMO the biggest question with Tyler has always been can he keep his wrists healthy/strong not whether he had the batspeed to handle plus velo.

  24. #249

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    The 2018 splits against righties for Austin actually show a lot of the same trends with his career splits. Low OBP, High Ks, but with the ability to go deep. If his health allows him to hit more HRs than previously, great, but still looks to be more of an all or nothing type of player against RHP. Against lefties though heís a beast.

  25. #250

    Re: Greg Bird OUT 6 to 8 Weeks - Bone Spurs Ankle Surgery

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714 View Post
    The 2018 splits against righties for Austin actually show a lot of the same trends with his career splits. Low OBP, High Ks, but with the ability to go deep. If his health allows him to hit more HRs than previously, great, but still looks to be more of an all or nothing type of player against RHP. Against lefties though he’s a beast.
    Are you talking MLB career splits as his minor league OBP numbers except for 2017, aren't that low? Also, his MLB 136 PA against right-handed pitching is spread across three seasons. Not a large sample size in fragmented seasons.

    2012: Char 432/656/1.018
    2012: Tam 389/466/855

    2013: AA 332/370/702

    2014: AA 346/397/743

    2015: AA 371/484/855
    2015: AAA 341/359/700

    2016: AA 397/466/863
    2016: AAA 394/609/1.002

    2017: AAA 297/484/781

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