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  1. #1
    Mustache NYDCYankee's Avatar
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    The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Trailer is out for MLB The Show 18 and Judge is on the cover and heavily featured throughout the trailer. Game even includes The Judge's Chambers. I think you guys will get a kick out of this, plus there is something fun at the end.

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  2. #2
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee View Post
    Trailer is out for MLB The Show 18 and Judge is on the cover and heavily featured throughout the trailer. Game even includes The Judge's Chambers. I think you guys will get a kick out of this, plus there is something fun at the end.

    Funny that it shows Beckham at SS for the Orioles - I guess MLB did not get the Machado "I want to play SS" memo.

    Good trailer, although the uni on Babe looks too current.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  3. #3
    Released Outright teknetic's Avatar
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rank...ted-prospects/

    80 PV (present value) 80 FV (future)

    Bonkers. That's basically a top-5/7 player.

  4. #4

    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    Funny that it shows Beckham at SS for the Orioles - I guess MLB did not get the Machado "I want to play SS" memo.

    Good trailer, although the uni on Babe looks too current.
    he's also wearing a batting helmet
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  5. #5
    Mustache NYDCYankee's Avatar
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    So I have been thinking a little bit about what exactly the Yankees might do as far as locking up Aaron Judge long-term. It is a bit of a unique situation and as we all know he is a unique player. He is a bit old for a rookie and won't be a free agent until 2023 when he will be 31 years old.

    We don't know what the economics of baseball are going to look like down the line, but they will have Judge through all of his prime years and when he would up for a new contract the Yankees would be looking at paying him big money for his decline years.

    Putting a price tag on him right now is really challenging and I have no idea how the Yankees are going to handle the situation. I'm curious to hear what some of you guys/gals think the Yankees should do.
    "Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

  6. #6
    Do not vex me mortal Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    That Judge bat flip. Flippin awesome.
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  7. #7
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    I’m thinking 8/130 is the right offer (5/50 guaranteed prior to option years):

    2018-19 he’s going to earn the league minimum
    2020,21,22 - you figure he’s going to set some arbitration records. Let’s settle those years for $55M (12/18/25).
    You then have 3 team options at 25/25/25

    I think this is an offer that works for the team and the player.

  8. #8
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    We were hypothesizing about this two weeks ago and I came to the conclusion that it was somewhere between 8/$148 and 10/$208M if the deal was signed this offseason.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  9. #9
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    We were hypothesizing about this two weeks ago and I came to the conclusion that it was somewhere between 8/$148 and 10/$208M if the deal was signed this offseason.
    I think this puts too much risk on the Yankees side, considering Judge has only done this once and didn’t have the mL career that Trout (the main comp for your offer) had. 8/148 is really 6/147, considering he’s getting around $1m over the next two years combined.

    EDIT: I realize that 8/148 is not THAT much different than my offer of 8/130

  10. #10
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Here was my breakdown on it:

    http://www.nyyfansforum.com/showthre...=1#post8442481

    I think that's what it'd take. I'm not sure I'd do it right now.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  11. #11
    Mustache NYDCYankee's Avatar
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Thanks for linking to your breakdown, I had missed it.

    Does it makes sense to negotiate with him now though? What if he settles in as a .250, 40 HR guy (a younger Mark Trumbo with a better OBP.) The Yankees run the risk of getting caught paying for him off a peak year. Though maybe you do it anyway because you are buying the peak years (The Rick Porcello Theory)
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  12. #12
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee View Post
    Thanks for linking to your breakdown, I had missed it.

    Does it makes sense to negotiate with him now though? What if he settles in as a .250, 40 HR guy (a younger Mark Trumbo with a better OBP.) The Yankees run the risk of getting caught paying for him off a peak year. Though maybe you do it anyway because you are buying the peak years (The Rick Porcello Theory)
    A few posts above the one I linked to in that thread I said the reason I'd do it isn't to save money in the long run or to buy the peak years, but instead to buy the peak years at a below market AAV. If Judge really is the guy we saw last year, having his peak years at $20M AAV is pretty damn valuable. But it only works when you're balancing the FA years of the contract with pre-arb years. The more of those min years you use up the less attractive the extension becomes from an AAV perspective, and the less enticing the overall concept of guaranteeing money to a young player as "old" as Judge is, becomes.

    As you noted earlier, he's going to hit FA in his 30s, so the Yankees are already guaranteed his theoretical prime years without having to be on the hook for any risk.
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  13. #13
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    FYI, Judge will also be card # 1 in the Topps 2018 baseball card set to honor his record setting 2017 season.

  14. #14
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee View Post
    So I have been thinking a little bit about what exactly the Yankees might do as far as locking up Aaron Judge long-term. It is a bit of a unique situation and as we all know he is a unique player. He is a bit old for a rookie and won't be a free agent until 2023 when he will be 31 years old.

    We don't know what the economics of baseball are going to look like down the line, but they will have Judge through all of his prime years and when he would up for a new contract the Yankees would be looking at paying him big money for his decline years.

    Putting a price tag on him right now is really challenging and I have no idea how the Yankees are going to handle the situation. I'm curious to hear what some of you guys/gals think the Yankees should do.
    you don't. you let him finish his control years at age 31yo and don't pay for the down turn.
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  15. #15
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    I was going to post this a couple of days ago, but the Forum was down:

    Summary of Judge's press conference on Wednesday, with Brendon Kuty's comments:
    http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/...ys_injury.html

  16. #16
    Do not vex me mortal Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by LongtimeNYYFan View Post
    FYI, Judge will also be card # 1 in the Topps 2018 baseball card set to honor his record setting 2017 season.
    fun fact: Ken Griffey Jr’s most coveted rookie card is card number 1 in 1989 for Upper Deck’s first year of producing cards.
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  17. #17

    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    I'm very excited to see what Judge will do this year.


    Part of me expects a regression. I just want to see him remain patient and show the ability to adjust, just like he did last year.

  18. #18
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    fun fact: Ken Griffey Jr’s most coveted rookie card is card number 1 in 1989 for Upper Deck’s first year of producing cards.
    What is that card going For? I have one.

  19. #19
    Do not vex me mortal Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ymike673 View Post
    What is that card going For? I have one.
    its all about the grade. I haven’t kept up on card price for a while but I know it was hovering around $100 ungraded or graded an 8, and around $500 if it was graded a 9 and it went up from there.
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  20. #20

    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Love Judge but wouldn't try to extend him until I see whether Stanton opts out after 2020, and by then it will likely be too late.

  21. #21
    Do not vex me mortal Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ymike673 View Post
    What is that card going For? I have one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    its all about the grade. I haven’t kept up on card price for a while but I know it was hovering around $100 ungraded or graded an 8, and around $500 if it was graded a 9 and it went up from there.
    I felt the urge to check this and well apparently Ive been out of the loop and the value has fluctuated quite a lot. Maybe the market got saturated with high graded cards. I recall a time where gem mint 10s were going for over a grand, up to like $1500.00. Looks like the PSA 8 & 9 grades are going for around $65.00-$80.00 ($150.00 for Beckett grade 9s, but they are a much stricter grading company). Ungraded cards are going for around $40.00. The gem mints are still up there at $750.00 plus depending on who did the grading. I saw a few around a grand.

    Sorry about the hijack, I needed to look that up and correct myself. Back on topic to one of the members of Murderer's Row 2.0
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  22. #22
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Did anybody see what was the cause for Judge's shoulder injury? Was it caused by a play in the field or years of swinging a bat? At least it's his left shoulder.

    I'm wondering if he made it much worse hacking away in the HR derby, and how upset the world will be if he (and the Yankees) decided that he would not partake in the 2018 HR derby for health reasons.

    On the other hand, the Yankees literally have 3, possibly 4 (Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, and long shot Bird) candidates for the HR Derby - but I'm sure the rest of MLB teams/fans will be rioting if that happened.
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  23. #23
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ajra21 View Post
    you don't. you let him finish his control years at age 31yo and don't pay for the down turn.
    This is the approach I usually like to take, but I don't think it works for Judge for a few reasons:

    1) For the typical age 27 or 28 free agent, you have to choose between either losing out on 4-5 productive years (by passing on him) or committing to 4-5 years of dead money (by signing him to a 9-10 year deal). Judge being an age 31 free agent makes this a different situation. Signing him now to an extension that takes him through his age 33 or 34 season gets us all his peak years without having to make a huge committment on the back end.
    2) Yankees brass is clearly grooming Judge to be the new face of the franchise, even having him lead Captain's Camp this year. He is one of those guys who will be far more valuable than you can measure by WAR.
    On the other hand, you have different fingers.


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  24. #24
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by slickknick View Post
    Did anybody see what was the cause for Judge's shoulder injury? Was it caused by a play in the field or years of swinging a bat? At least it's his left shoulder.

    I'm wondering if he made it much worse hacking away in the HR derby, and how upset the world will be if he (and the Yankees) decided that he would not partake in the 2018 HR derby for health reasons.
    There's some information in the story I posted a link to above, though he doesn't pinpoint a cause:

    Quote Originally Posted by -tz View Post
    Summary of Judge's press conference on Wednesday, with Brendon Kuty's comments:
    http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/...ys_injury.html
    Quote: “I felt it midway through the season last year, but it came down to, 'Can you play?' I could play.”
    Quote: (Asked how he hurt himself) “It’s tough to really say. I kind of felt it around that All-Star break. But it’s tough to really pinpoint when because I was crashing into walls and taking a lot of swings. Quite a couple different things but it’s tough to pinpoint exactly when.”

    Takeaway: The All-Star break, huh? Well, Judge did dominate the Home Run Derby. That’s *a lot* of extra swings. Could the deterioration of his shoulder have started then? It does coincide with the start of his slump. Judge was hitting .329 at the All-Star break. Eighteen games later, he was hitting .299.

  25. #25
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    Re: The 2018 Super Official Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Interesting how he opted for the long pants, no socks looks during BP today... but surprise, surprise, Stanton has on the socks

    Wondering if they intentionally did this to avoid the “wow, they even dress the same” comments, or if they’re totally trolling the media and switching off every month
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