View Poll Results: Over/Under: 40 HRs

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  1. #1
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    2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread


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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    He can hit, and has huge power, especially as a pull hitter at home, but 40 is asking a bit much, IMO.

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Jeez don't scare me like this. I saw the thread and thought he was injured.

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    IF he plays 150 games, he can definitely hit 40 HR.

  5. #5

    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    He can hit, and has huge power, especially as a pull hitter at home, but 40 is asking a bit much, IMO.
    Greg. Bird has started 82 games in his major league career, roughly half a season. That includes last April when he played with a bone condition in his foot which impeded his hitting to the tune of a .100 BA and 1 HR for the month. In those 82 games, he hit 40 HR.

    Another way to look at it is that Bird has played 75 games (started + partial) healthy and has hit 19 HR in those 75 games.

    No matter how you look at it, in his limited major league experience, Bird has hit HR at a rate that projects to 38-40 HR for a full season.

  6. #6

    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Greg. Bird has started 82 games in his major league career, roughly half a season. That includes last April when he played with a bone condition in his foot which impeded his hitting to the tune of a .100 BA and 1 HR for the month. In those 82 games, he hit 40 HR.

    Another way to look at it is that Bird has played 75 games (started + partial) healthy and has hit 19 HR in those 75 games.

    No matter how you look at it, in his limited major league experience, Bird has hit HR at a rate that projects to 38-40 HR for a full season.
    I think you can definitely pencil him in for 30, and 40 is not out of the question the way the ball is flying these days.

  7. #7
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Greg. Bird has started 82 games in his major league career, roughly half a season. That includes last April when he played with a bone condition in his foot which impeded his hitting to the tune of a .100 BA and 1 HR for the month. In those 82 games, he hit 40 HR.

    Another way to look at it is that Bird has played 75 games (started + partial) healthy and has hit 19 HR in those 75 games.

    No matter how you look at it, in his limited major league experience, Bird has hit HR at a rate that projects to 38-40 HR for a full season.
    I think you made an error (bold). He's hit 20 HR in 94 career games.

  8. #8
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by THEBOSS84 View Post
    IF he plays 150 games, he can definitely hit 40 HR.
    If he plays 150 games I'd say it's actually probable he hits 40 HR.

    From a scouting standpoint his swing produces a tremendous amount of natural loft - it's basically tailor-made for this new era of launch angle mechanics. Combine that with his easy, natural power, Yankee Stadium, and the juiced ball, and I think it'd be an upset if he didn't hit 40 HR in 150 games.

    The part that makes me gun shy is predicting 150 games for any player other than Cal Ripken, Jr.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Swing is so pretty. The Fangraphs guys continually rave about him.

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    If he plays 150 games I'd say it's actually probable he hits 40 HR.

    From a scouting standpoint his swing produces a tremendous amount of natural loft - it's basically tailor-made for this new era of launch angle mechanics. Combine that with his easy, natural power, Yankee Stadium, and the juiced ball, and I think it'd be an upset if he didn't hit 40 HR in 150 games.

    The part that makes me gun shy is predicting 150 games for any player other than Cal Ripken, Jr.
    Optimal HR hitting is 25-35 degrees over 95 MPH. In the playoffs (SSS and all), he AVERAGED the highest exit velocity (93.5) of any player. Coupled with an average launch angle (25.5).

    It's all health with him. 40 is a layup if he's healthy.

    http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Optimal HR hitting is 25-35 degrees over 95 MPH. In the playoffs (SSS and all), he AVERAGED the highest exit velocity (93.5) of any player. Coupled with an average launch angle (25.5).

    It's all health with him. 40 is a layup if he's healthy.

    http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo
    In the past 3 years there have only been 22, 40+ HR players. Hitting 40 isn't a layup for anyone.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Layup. Greg Bird isn't anyone. He's the truth.

  13. #13
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Layup. Greg Bird isn't anyone. He's the truth.
    Stanton and Trout have each done it exactly 1 time in their careers.

    I'm not saying Bird can't hit 40 HRs. But it is by no means "a layup".
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Stanton and Trout have each done it exactly 1 time in their careers.

    I'm not saying Bird can't hit 40 HRs. But it is by no means "a layup".
    Laaaaayup.

  15. #15

    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by THEBOSS84 View Post
    I think you made an error (bold). He's hit 20 HR in 94 career games.
    Yes, but he didnít start 94 games; he started 82. It was the 82 games I focused on because almost all of them were complete games. The other dozen games were mostly just an inning or 2, and he didnít hit any HR in those part time appearances.

    I think the most representative sample is the 75 games he played healthy, which includes part time games and which projects to a full season of 150 games when doubled.

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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Yes, but he didn’t start 94 games; he started 82. It was the 82 games I focused on because almost all of them were complete games. The other dozen games were mostly just an inning or 2, and he didn’t hit any HR in those part time appearances.

    I think the most representative sample is the 75 games he played healthy, which includes part time games and which projects to a full season of 150 games when doubled.
    You wrote that he hit 40 HR...

  17. #17
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Layup. Greg Bird isn't anyone. He's the truth.
    He speaks truth to power.

  18. #18
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ChinMusic View Post
    He speaks truth to power.
    No, he speaks power to truth. Left-handed power.

  19. #19

    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by THEBOSS84 View Post
    You wrote that he hit 40 HR...
    Fake news.


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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Adler doing some great analysis on Bird. Guy is gonna hit FITTY!

    "Hard-hit air balls" includes any batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher and a launch angle between eight and 50 degrees. Statcast™ uses that 95-mph threshold as the baseline for hard contact. And for air balls, the 8-50 degree launch-angle range encompasses line drives and fly balls while excluding ground balls and popups. That's the contact that can do damage. Essentially all barrels, for example -- the optimal quality of contact -- fall in that range of launch angles.

    Since Statcast™ started tracking in 2015, more than 75 percent of all extra-base hits have had exit velocities of 95-plus mph and launch angles of 8-50 degrees. If you're hitting a lot of balls that hit those marks, you're likely to have success, and that's exactly what Bird did to close out the year.

    Bird's rate of hard-hit air balls from August through the end of the postseason was the second-highest out of 344 Major League hitters with at least 50 batted balls in that timespan. The only player with a higher rate was Judge. That's good company to keep.

    Highest rate of hard-hit air balls from Aug. 1 through postseason
    95+ mph exit velocity; launch angle 8-50 degrees
    Minimum 50 batted balls from Aug. 1 through postseason
    1. Aaron Judge: 37.6 percent
    2. Greg Bird: 36.6 percent
    3. (tie) J.D. Martinez: 35.1 percent
    3. (tie) Khris Davis: 35.1 percent
    5. Rhys Hoskins: 34.9 percent

    Nearly all of Bird's hard-hit balls were elevated. Even high exit velocities aren't nearly as damaging if the ball is pounded into the ground or skied straight up into the air. Bird stayed right in the sweet spot in between. Only three of his hard-hit balls weren't in the productive air-ball range. (All were grounders with launch angles below eight degrees; none were popups over 50.) No hitter elevated more of his hard contact than Bird, who put 91.9 percent of his hard-hit balls in the air from August onward.
    https://www.mlb.com/yankees/news/gre...18/c-265955154

  21. #21
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    That's great data that supports the general scouting/observation about him.

    I remember there was a HR he hit in the AFL in 2014 to dead center that looked like a regular flyball, but it went about 450ft. The guy has such natural, easy power in his swing, and it produces amazing loft/backspin. It's crazy how perfect he is for this era of juiced balls and launch angle.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  22. #22
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    The fact he had a 51.9% FB rate this year with a gimp leg is dope. Only three guys topped 50% this year (Gallo/Kyle Seager/Carpenter).

  23. #23
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread



    or this one might be more fitting

    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  24. #24

    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Does anyone really think he will be back in 6 to 8 weeks?

  25. #25
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    Re: 2018 Greg Bird Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by GottaGoToMo View Post
    Does anyone really think he will be back in 6 to 8 weeks?
    Maybe. Anyway, at least there was no delay before having the surgery this time.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-gre...ot/c-269737364

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