View Poll Results: Which former prospect will have the best season?

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  • Jorge Mateo

    5 15.63%
  • Zack Littell

    3 9.38%
  • James Kaprielian

    4 12.50%
  • Blake Rutherford

    3 9.38%
  • Dustin Fowler

    6 18.75%
  • Ian Clarkin

    1 3.13%
  • Tito Polo

    0 0%
  • Jorge Guzman

    9 28.13%
  • Jose Devers

    1 3.13%
  • Other

    0 0%
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  1. #1
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    Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Now that we've traded our fair share of very good prospects. Which former prospect do you think will have the best season?
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  2. #2

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Guzman.

    I’ll believe it when I see it with Kap and Fowler’s health.

  3. #3
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Is the answer to this question purely statistics driven?
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  4. #4
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    Is the answer to this question purely statistics driven?
    Think of it as at the end of 2018, which player will be the most valuable trade asset?

    So if a player breaks into the majors, performs well, take that in account in his overall value.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  5. #5

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Totally health-dependent, but I thought Fowler was ready to explode when he decided that he could run through the wall so instead his knee exploded, so he gets my vote.

  6. #6

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Also there have to be better candidates for the Jose Devers slot, start with Nestor Cortes or Anyelo Gomez.

    And did you not put Mike Ford on because having him on the same poll as Littell and having to choose just one would break your brain?

  7. #7
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Doing players we traded.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  8. #8

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    If he stays healthy, Kap. If not, Guzman.

  9. #9
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    There's no one on the list that jumped out to me like, "THAT'S MY GUY - EASY!"

    I like Littell, but don't have confidence in his ability in the long run.

    I hate Mateo, but his talent is overflowing and he had significant production in stretches last year.

    I love Kaprielian, but he'll only be 12 months removed from TJS when the season starts in April.

    I like Fowler, but his walk rate was horrifying even before he had one of the worst knee injuries an athlete can try to come back from.

    Rutherford and Clarkin don't inspire even the most remote sense of confidence that they're going to put it together in 2018.

    I actually like Polo.

    I ended up choosing Guzman. The stuff is too huge and the results were too dominant in SI to be totally outweighed by the fact that he'll be hitting full season ball for the first time next year at the age of 22. Plus the prospect world will be giving him extra credit now for being "the guy traded for Giancarlo Stanton".
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  10. #10
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by albo4lyfe View Post
    If he stays healthy, Kap. If not, Guzman.
    Kaprelian's going to throw like 40-50 innings if he's healthy, his season can only be so good (and those first innings after TJS tend to involve having no control).

    I guess he could rehab his prospect status by looking amazing, but he has such a long road in front of him (like a 2020 midseason callup for a guy that is about to turn 24 right now, and he has to avoid injuries in the 2.5 years until then).

  11. #11
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    What's your pick Jace?
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    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  12. #12
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    What's your pick Jace?
    Guzman will have the best prospect status, Littell will have the best year from a WAR perspective (if such measures existed). Littell kind of reminds me of prospect Tyler Clippard.

  13. #13
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    I'll go Fowler. If he's healthy and I think he should be he has no real road blocks to playing time with Oakland.

    Kaprelian obviously has the highest ceiling but doubful he reached that in 2018, 2019 or 2020 is more likely on him.
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  14. #14
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    I'll go Fowler. If he's healthy and I think he should be he has no real road blocks to playing time with Oakland.

    Kaprelian obviously has the highest ceiling but doubful he reached that in 2018, 2019 or 2020 is more likely on him.
    I went with Fowler as well. I really like him a lot, but that was a trade we had to make.

  15. #15

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    I'll go with Guzman, I think he will continue to develop well and be a piece we always talk about losing years later.

  16. #16

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Guzman is still a lottery ticket. He's got a great arm, but hasn't even tasted full season league yet. So many things could go wrong with a 100 mph arm at this stage of development.

    Fowler's lawsuit concerns me. It might be an indication that his rehab and recovery isn't progressing as expected. It was a gruesome injury. His speed was underrated. A good portion of his value came from centerfield defense or the potential to play there everyday.

    I'm a little surprised that Rutherford and Moniak haven't exhibited any power. All the more reason why short-season stats can be so misleading.

    A guy like Littell will never get respect no matter how he does in the minors. He'll get the benefit of the doubt until he performs in the show. Kinda like Montgomery.

    I don't know how aggressive the A's are with TJS rehabs. There's uncertainty in how they handle Kap. If they're ultra conservative like the Yanks, they would bring him along slowly this season.

    Mateo produced a 147 wRC+ at Trenton and then a 133 wRC+ with Midland in 2017. It was a breakout season. He'll probably get a call up to Oakland with a strong month or two at Nashville.

  17. #17

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    I went with Guzman. All he has to do is stay healthy and continue on his current path to start shooting up prospect lists. Not always an easy thing to do as prospects like him get hurt all the time. I think Fowler and Mateo both make the majors, but I don't know if they are impact performers in 2018. Is making the show enough for these guys to claim a better season? I personally don't think so. If this was a 2019 poll though it'd be a choice between Kap and Mateo.

  18. #18

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    I went with Mateo. I think he has the highest floor right now in combination of skills, current level, and health. I think a bit of prospect fatigue is there similar to Sanchez due to being around for so long, but he is still young and his breakout in AA seems legit. Back as a SS in AAA without any health concerns, he most likely can find some way to see MLB this year as a combination of backup middle IF/OF and at the least the best PR candidate for Oakland.

    Fowler was my other choice of best floor if not for the question of injury and lawsuit, and Kaps just has to pitch more than 50 IP a season first no matter how talented he is. It seems like Rutherford lost a lot of luster and will be repeating low-A, and Clarkin/Polo/Devers is an afterthought. I'm not so sure about Twins farm status or rotation, but Littell probably will be some kind of a combination between a backup spotstarter waiting in AAA/longman candidate, with an outside chance of competing for 5th starter if Twins have an opening come Spring Training. Reminds me of Luis Cessa or early David Phelps-type fringe shuttle position. Not traded, but an interesting competition would be who has a better 2018, Littell or Nestor Cortes.

    Guzman was also in the consideration, but one more season probably is needed for him...gorgeous arm but just way too far. A full year ending in high-A would make him a near definite top 100 prospect IMO, and I won't be surprised at end of 2019 he has the best value of all here as well.

  19. #19
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by H.Kokubo View Post
    I went with Mateo. I think he has the highest floor right now in combination of skills, current level, and health. I think a bit of prospect fatigue is there similar to Sanchez due to being around for so long, but he is still young and his breakout in AA seems legit. Back as a SS in AAA without any health concerns, he most likely can find some way to see MLB this year as a combination of backup middle IF/OF and at the least the best PR candidate for Oakland.

    Fowler was my other choice of best floor if not for the question of injury and lawsuit, and Kaps just has to pitch more than 50 IP a season first no matter how talented he is. It seems like Rutherford lost a lot of luster and will be repeating low-A, and Clarkin/Polo/Devers is an afterthought. I'm not so sure about Twins farm status or rotation, but Littell probably will be some kind of a combination between a backup spotstarter waiting in AAA/longman candidate, with an outside chance of competing for 5th starter if Twins have an opening come Spring Training. Reminds me of Luis Cessa or early David Phelps-type fringe shuttle position. Not traded, but an interesting competition would be who has a better 2018, Littell or Nestor Cortes.

    Guzman was also in the consideration, but one more season probably is needed for him...gorgeous arm but just way too far. A full year ending in high-A would make him a near definite top 100 prospect IMO, and I won't be surprised at end of 2019 he has the best value of all here as well.
    Guzman is a top-100 prospect right now, which will be reflected as soon as the updates are released in a couple of weeks.
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  20. #20

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jace View Post
    Kaprelian's going to throw like 40-50 innings if he's healthy, his season can only be so good (and those first innings after TJS tend to involve having no control).

    I guess he could rehab his prospect status by looking amazing, but he has such a long road in front of him (like a 2020 midseason callup for a guy that is about to turn 24 right now, and he has to avoid injuries in the 2.5 years until then).
    That's what I was banking on. If he stays healthy, he can be so good.

  21. #21
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    I'm surprised. I think ya'll are overrating Guzman.

    This was Keith Law's take:
    Jorge Guzman throws hard, 98-100 mph even as a starter, with fringy to below-average everything else and no deception; he turns 22 in January and has yet to pitch in full-season ball, and despite all of that, is top five in the Miami system now.
    http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7918

    Now....Keith hasn't exactly been money on Yankee pitching prospects, however he brings up some good points. For starters, Guzman is about to turn 22, and just finished Staten Island. His max IP he's thrown in a season is 67 innings. If he has fringe offspeed, throwing 98-100 might work in the lower levels, but that's not going to play as he moves up. Not saying he can't develop but I think he has a significant amount of hurdles to overcome that some of those guys listed are already past.
    Calmer than you are

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  22. #22

    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    I would have gone with Fowler, but I think that injury changes who he is as a prospect. He may recover fully from it, but 2019 is a more likely back-to-full-strength timeline.

  23. #23
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    I'm surprised. I think ya'll are overrating Guzman.

    This was Keith Law's take:

    http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7918

    Now....Keith hasn't exactly been money on Yankee pitching prospects, however he brings up some good points. For starters, Guzman is about to turn 22, and just finished Staten Island. His max IP he's thrown in a season is 67 innings. If he has fringe offspeed, throwing 98-100 might work in the lower levels, but that's not going to play as he moves up. Not saying he can't develop but I think he has a significant amount of hurdles to overcome that some of those guys listed are already past.
    I agree with all of that, and mentioned some of it in my post, but the question here is who will have the best trade value at the end of this season. While they could definitely manifest this season, to me those are more longterm concerns for if/when he hits AA/AAA. I think a fastball that literally averages 99 MPH has good odds to play well in Greensboro against a whole bunch of hitters also making their full season debuts.

    There are several guys on the list I would take over Guzman if the question was about 2019 or 2020.
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  24. #24
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    I agree with all of that, and mentioned some of it in my post, but the question here is who will have the best trade value at the end of this season. While they could definitely manifest this season, to me those are more longterm concerns for if/when he hits AA/AAA. I think a fastball that literally averages 99 MPH has good odds to play well in Greensboro against a whole bunch of hitters also making their full season debuts.

    There are several guys on the list I would take over Guzman if the question was about 2019 or 2020.
    Correct, and I think you guys are underrating the value of guys that are closer to the majors. Littell (could pitch 190-200IP), Mateo, Fowler, and even Kap could see time in the majors this season. If they have success their values would be higher than Guzman even if he has a successful mL season. Look at what Monty's season did for him this year.
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  25. #25
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    Re: Which former prospect will have the best season (2018)?

    I agree again, I just personally don't like the probability of any of those four seeing significant ML time, much less having the type of success that would so immensely increase their trade value. All four have at least one enormous red flag to me.

    Guzman is insulated from over-exposure in the Sally.
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