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  1. #76

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by KayForPresident View Post
    I wouldn't underestimate Gardy's effect at the top of the lineup and, of course, his leadership. He brings some intangibles to the table that might be missed. That said, I do agree that Hicks is a keeper and Ellsbury's contract makes moving him a real puzzle so Gardner is the obvious choice of the tree. The game's not played on paper though.
    Hicks is a tremendous cf n may be ready to have a career year with bat. Not a wide disparity between Gardner n Ellsbury beyond the former having a grittier image and a much lower paycheck . The idea of moving Garner makes some sense but I dont see it happening because he is a homegrown Yank rather a Sox fa import and also perceived as a leader on a young team .Ellsbury has some skills left so mildly surprised that we dont hear about more teams exploring, perhaps too early in offseason n his ntc inhibits but wonder if Cashman is simply not willing yet to heavily subsidized moving his deal. Do think he eventually gets move but the savings if any is likely to be more like $3- 5 per than $10

  2. #77

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimeyank View Post
    Hicks is a tremendous cf n may be ready to have a career year with bat. Not a wide disparity between Gardner n Ellsbury beyond the former having a grittier image and a much lower paycheck . The idea of moving Garner makes some sense but I dont see it happening because he is a homegrown Yank rather a Sox fa import and also perceived as a leader on a young team .Ellsbury has some skills left so mildly surprised that we dont hear about more teams exploring, perhaps too early in offseason n his ntc inhibits but wonder if Cashman is simply not willing yet to heavily subsidized moving his deal. Do think he eventually gets move but the savings if any is likely to be more like $3- 5 per than $10
    I think its too early on Ells because there are tons of affordable FAs out there that could be had on shorter term deals and offer similar production to Ells. If Ellsbury were a FA he'd probably compare most closely with someone like Jon Jay or Jarrod Dyson. MLBTR projects Jay will get 2 years 14M and Dyson 2 years 12M. Committing to 3 years for Ellsbury who is slightly older than both would probably mean maybe 18M if we're lucky. Jay and Dyson are better role players as they have nice platoon splits and Dyson is a defensive wiz and good on the base paths. Ellsbury the better fit as a regular. If I was in need I'd probably looking at the price of those guys and someone better like Carlos Gomez before I jumped in head first on an Ellsbury trade. Unless of course we're willing to attach some prospects to increase the value.

    I wonder if the best course with Ellsbury is just waiting it out and looking to deal him in ST when he'll be the only option out there for teams that are in need (injuries, etc.). Wonder if a situation would arise like the one we got Vernon Wells in years ago.

    Although I do like the idea of attaching mid-lower tier prospects to Ellsbury. Would someone be more intrigued by a package that includes Ellsbury and say a younger player like Jake Cave? Worth exploring.

  3. #78

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Back to the the topic of Darvish, I think its not really feasible. Seeing reports today that the Cubs who are also in on Darvish would potentially go as high as 4 years $110M to keep Arrieta means that its really hard to imagine a workable luxury tax number for Darvish unless the Yankees get super creative (i.e. go for a longer deal to bring down the luxury tax hit and absorb the hit down the line over multiple years when he's a broken asset).

    I'm hoping Darvish just goes back to the Rangers at this point or maybe the Twins. Keep him away from the Stros or other top contenders.

  4. #79
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimeyank View Post
    Not a wide disparity between Gardner n Ellsbury beyond the former having a grittier image and a much lower paycheck .
    Gardner has a 8.8 fWAR over the last 3 years whereas Ellsbury has a 4.5 fWAR over the same period.

    Gardner has been the MUCH better player, almost double as valuable.
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  5. #80
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Gardner has a 8.8 fWAR over the last 3 years whereas Ellsbury has a 4.5 fWAR over the same period.

    Gardner has been the MUCH better player, almost double as valuable.
    has more to do with Gardner remaining healthy (which is a fair concern)

    Over the past 3 years, Gardner has been a tiny bit better at the plate (102 vs 95 OPS+) but Ellsbury was better on the base paths and he has better defense IMO
    A fool and his money can throw one heck of a party!

  6. #81

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePinStripes View Post
    has more to do with Gardner remaining healthy (which is a fair concern)

    Over the past 3 years, Gardner has been a tiny bit better at the plate (102 vs 95 OPS+) but Ellsbury was better on the base paths and he has better defense IMO
    Gardner is a plus defender in LF. You could argue that Ellsbury is a better CF than Gardner, but you'd just be arguing about the lesser evil. Ellsbury hasn't shown positional flexibility either, he's just a sub-par defensive CF. Gardner's defense in left provides much more value.

    Stats aside Gardner works the counts and provides much better ABs which works well with the rest of our lineup.

  7. #82
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    If I have to decide between
    Gardner or
    No Gardner + Yu

    I pick the latter
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  8. #83
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePinStripes View Post
    has more to do with Gardner remaining healthy (which is a fair concern)

    Over the past 3 years, Gardner has been a tiny bit better at the plate (102 vs 95 OPS+) but Ellsbury was better on the base paths and he has better defense IMO
    The ability to stay healthy is an absolute massive part of overall value. They aren't close for that reason.

    For the record, I'm very OK with moving Gardner. I think Giancarlo will make a very fine LFer and we're wasting his defensive value at DH. Ideally McKinney/Cave could fill that role for 4th OFer.

    Also moving Gardner would open a spot for Lind, who I'm very much in favor of as DH/Bird 1B backup.
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  9. #84

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePinStripes View Post
    If I have to decide between
    Gardner or
    No Gardner + Yu

    I pick the latter
    I'd agree, but think the Yu Darvish talk has no real merit. I think the Yankees know that they have one of if not the best trade packages to offer for a starting pitcher and should expect the Pirates or the Tigers or the Rays to come back to them if they're serious about making a deal. Cole, Fulmer, or Archer on their contracts make MUCH more sense than Yu Darvish will given the presumed price tag and the need to trade a player like Gardner to make it happen. Even some sort of complicated Grienke trade seems more likely because you can use Ellsbury's salary in the deal to make the financials work along with prospects to offset the talent gap. Even if you subtract Gardner's salary there's a good chance you don't have enough for Yu (he'll get probably at least 150M) and even if you do you have nothing left for any other moves and only smaller salaries and Ellsbury (only can move so much of that).

    If a good trade doesn't present itself you wait. With so many good, cost controlled starters being talked about in trades now, it sounds like a buyers market. The Yankees are in the best position to buy. And by midseason you could have more names enter the fray. So someone like Marcus Stroman could become available if the Jays predictably are not in the AL East race and are looking to rebuild. Who knows maybe Philly falls flat on their face and puts Nola out there. Fulmer is going to lose a lot games in Detroit if he isn't moved. Cole will be moved eventually. Ditto Archer.

  10. #85

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    The only real way to get Darvish is to move Ellsbury and get someone to eat 50% (fat chance) or move Gardner, that's it, and I don't think the Yankees have any intention of moving Gardner.

  11. #86
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714 View Post
    Back to the the topic of Darvish, I think its not really feasible. Seeing reports today that the Cubs who are also in on Darvish would potentially go as high as 4 years $110M to keep Arrieta means that its really hard to imagine a workable luxury tax number for Darvish unless the Yankees get super creative (i.e. go for a longer deal to bring down the luxury tax hit and absorb the hit down the line over multiple years when he's a broken asset).

    I'm hoping Darvish just goes back to the Rangers at this point or maybe the Twins. Keep him away from the Stros or other top contenders.
    I think if Darvish's aav is $27.5 mil, you pass.
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  12. #87

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by budstinks View Post
    I think if Darvish's aav is $27.5 mil, you pass.
    I think its definitely in that neighborhood, could even be more. 25M is probably the low-end unless you go crazy with the length of the deal. There's too much interest in him for it not to be a huge deal. He's a game changer for a lot of teams. I think the Cubs likely step up with a big time offer. If not someone else will.

  13. #88
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    I think the complete lack of teams in the market means Darvish is getting no where near 27m a year.
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  14. #89
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Yu is in decline, just crapped the bed in the playoffs and 31 next year. I could be wrong, but I see him getting $20M AAV or less. I mean, he had a 118 ERA+ last year. I see something like 5/100M.
    A fool and his money can throw one heck of a party!

  15. #90

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Being fair I think the slick ball and pitch tipping was the cause of him bombing in the WS, andnot n issue of immediate decline.
    In NLDS and NLCS he was good, probably better than any starter on the Yankees not named Tanaka.

    That said I don't want Darvish.

  16. #91

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    The ability to stay healthy is an absolute massive part of overall value. They aren't close for that reason.

    For the record, I'm very OK with moving Gardner. I think Giancarlo will make a very fine LFer and we're wasting his defensive value at DH. Ideally McKinney/Cave could fill that role for 4th OFer.

    Also moving Gardner would open a spot for Lind, who I'm very much in favor of as DH/Bird 1B backup.
    Wouldn't you want a right handed hitting backup to Bird, assuming that he isn't hit with any long term injury? Rest Bird vs. tough LH starters...

  17. #92
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Steve View Post
    Wouldn't you want a right handed hitting backup to Bird, assuming that he isn't hit with any long term injury? Rest Bird vs. tough LH starters...
    Sanchez has played very little 1b, but I would give him and Andujar a 1b mitt during ST and Tyler Austin hit 22 bombs with 90 rbi's as recently as 2016. Mostly in AAA. Yanks have kept him on the 40 man for a reason. So there are 3 options already on the roster. Andujar may end up at 1b anyhow if his widely overblown throwing issues actually become real.

    I know I'll get shot around here, but since the Yanks have 6 outfielders plus, I've occasionally wondered what Judge would look like at 1b. I'd give him a mitt and just kick the tires during ST.

    If you could put Judge at 1b vs a tough lefty in a NL park/world series, you'd have

    1. Torres 2b
    2. Judge 1b
    3. Stanton RF
    4. Sanchez C
    5. Didi SS
    6. Hicks CF
    7. Andujar 3b
    8. Frazier LF
    9. pitcher P

    Then you'd have Gardner/Ellsbury/Estrada/Wade/Austin off the bench.

    Granted, I'm not wanting to move Judge to 1b as a full time gig. Seems like he played 1b in high school or college.
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  18. #93
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    I think the complete lack of teams in the market means Darvish is getting no where near 27m a year.
    I agree. With the Yankees and Dodgers,, for all intent and purpose, sitting out the high-end FA market, and the Cubs targeting 1 high-priced pitcher, and the Bosox looking for a hitter, the market for the Pitchers is not there at this time.

  19. #94

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    I agree. With the Yankees and Dodgers,, for all intent and purpose, sitting out the high-end FA market, and the Cubs targeting 1 high-priced pitcher, and the Bosox looking for a hitter, the market for the Pitchers is not there at this time.
    But everyone in the market is talking with Darvish. Big contracts can come from a lot of teams these days. The Cubs will surely land one of Darvish or Arrieta. The Cardinals didn't get Stanton they got the far less expensive Ozuna, so they have money to spend on pitching. The Astros actually have tons of salary flexibility to work with and a clear window to strike while the iron is hot and go for their own little potential dynasty. The Rangers could afford Darvish and would love to have him back. The Twins probably don't have enough, but if the price got lower they could probably outspend the Yankees given the luxury tax and they're a team that could be a pitcher away from making some noise. The Phillies are starting to spend again.

    The Yankees haven't spent big in FA in years, yet guys are still getting huge deals every year. And its not just the Dodgers and Red Sox that are signing them. Darvish is also the clear top free agent this year (I'm not including Ohtani).

  20. #95

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Steve View Post
    Wouldn't you want a right handed hitting backup to Bird, assuming that he isn't hit with any long term injury? Rest Bird vs. tough LH starters...
    Bird can hit lefties very well, so he's not going to sit unless he could use the rest. And Tyler Austin mashes lefties if needed. The only concern at 1B is another Bird injury.

  21. #96
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Steve View Post
    Wouldn't you want a right handed hitting backup to Bird, assuming that he isn't hit with any long term injury? Rest Bird vs. tough LH starters...
    Not really. Bird can hit lefties and the lineup is very righty heavy. It's more important to get a solid backup for Bird.
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  22. #97
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Yankees trade Frazier, Acevedo, Solak for Cole
    Yankees trade Montgomery, Adams, Estrada for Machado
    Yankees unload Ellsbury
    Yankees sign Darvish

    2018 rotation:
    Severino
    Tanaka
    Darvish
    Gray
    Cole
    CC

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  23. #98
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Gray?
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  24. #99
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    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    Gray?
    Came back just to edit
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  25. #100

    Re: MLB free agency: Yankees targeting Yu Darvish

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    Yankees trade Frazier, Acevedo, Solak for Cole
    Yankees trade Montgomery, Adams, Estrada for Machado
    Yankees unload Ellsbury
    Yankees sign Darvish

    2018 rotation:
    Severino
    Tanaka
    Darvish
    Gray
    Cole
    CC

    Cashman wins 2018 executive of the year before season even starts
    God, I love how fans can dream.

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