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  1. #1026

    Re: 2018 Giancarlo Stanton Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    I said that because people will likely be a lot more angry and frustrated if Harper is a Yankee this year:-

    Stanton wRC+
    Mar/Apr 102 (.230/.313/.425)
    May 131 (.270/.337/.528)
    Jun 114 (.222/.291/.519)

    Harper wRC+
    Mar/Apr 157 (.247/.458/.528)
    May 125 (.223/.289/.563)
    Jun 42 (.163/.265/.233)

    And the expectation on Harper would be even higher because of the contract and hype.
    I'd give Trout 450M before I'd give Harper 300M.

  2. #1027
    Calls a tool a tool
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    Re: 2018 Giancarlo Stanton Performance Thread

    How did the NL not figure this guy out?

  3. #1028
    Slow in, Fast out ThePinStripes's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Giancarlo Stanton Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Benefactor View Post
    I'd give Trout 450M before I'd give Harper 300M.
    I think those are both high numbers, but especially for Harper. The guy has been hurt a lot. He also hasn't been great for about half his career.
    OPS+
    2012: 118
    2013: 133
    2014: 111
    2015: 198
    2016: 114
    2017: 158
    2018: 127

    Ref:
    2018 Stanton: 113


    He's had one incredible year, 4 years removed from when his first year of his big contract. He had one very good year (2017) and two "pretty good" years where he was a a bit better than 2018 Stanton. The other (nearly half) of his career he's been the same or worse than 2018 Stanton.
    Another way to look at it- he had two years of +1.000OPS. He's had 5 years of .854 or less OPS. That's not a $300M player.


    If he had 7 years of 2015 and 2017 production with one down year of 125-130 OPS+, sure. But he's been up and down his whole career. He's worth $25MM/yr IMO if he's going to get more than 7 years.
    A fool and his money can throw one heck of a party!

  4. #1029
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    Re: 2018 Giancarlo Stanton Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePinStripes View Post
    I haven't been watching all his games, but that strikes me as more of a 2 week slump than anything. For half a season Stanton has been watching 2 meatballs go over the plate, then hopelessly flailing at the same slider in the dirt. That is why it's frustrating.

    With Didi's awful slump, at least it wasn't complete crap approach, stubbornly refusing to adjust and endless strikeouts for 60 straight games. THAT is what is frustrating.
    As a huge proponent of the Stanton acquisition, and someone who still is not worried about him, his performance thus far has made it really difficult to get excited. There's no mined bit of data for me to point out suggesting that he's doing better - those types of strikeouts are analytically indefensible within the construct of him being a high-value/production player. I'm certain he's going to "snap out of it" and/or "settle in", but it's maddening to watch him as he goes through the process of getting there.

    Specifically with regards to your post about Harper, it is anything but "two weeks". From April 17th to today, a span of 216 PAs or 73% of Harper's season thus far, he is hitting:

    .193 / .315 / .403 / .718 for a wRC+ of 90.


    And he's gotten worse along the way. In his 86 PAs since May 23rd he's

    .187 / .279 / .360 / .639 for a wRC+ of 75


    In his 49 PAs since June 1st he's

    .163 / .265 / .233 / .498 for a wRC+ of 42
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  5. #1030
    Slow in, Fast out ThePinStripes's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Giancarlo Stanton Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    As a huge proponent of the Stanton acquisition, and someone who still is not worried about him, his performance thus far has made it really difficult to get excited. There's no mined bit of data for me to point out suggesting that he's doing better - those types of strikeouts are analytically indefensible within the construct of him being a high-value/production player. I'm certain he's going to "snap out of it" and/or "settle in", but it's maddening to watch him as he goes through the process of getting there.

    Specifically with regards to your post about Harper, it is anything but "two weeks". From April 17th to today, a span of 216 PAs or 73% of Harper's season thus far, he is hitting:

    .193 / .315 / .403 / .718 for a wRC+ of 90.


    And he's gotten worse along the way. In his 86 PAs since May 23rd he's

    .187 / .279 / .360 / .639 for a wRC+ of 75


    In his 49 PAs since June 1st he's

    .163 / .265 / .233 / .498 for a wRC+ of 42
    Then I've been given two sets of numbers:

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    I said that because people will likely be a lot more angry and frustrated if Harper is a Yankee this year:-

    Stanton wRC+
    Mar/Apr 102 (.230/.313/.425)
    May 131 (.270/.337/.528)
    Jun 114 (.222/.291/.519)

    Harper wRC+
    Mar/Apr 157 (.247/.458/.528)
    May 125 (.223/.289/.563)
    Jun 42 (.163/.265/.233)

    And the expectation on Harper would be even higher because of the contract and hype.
    Someone who hits 157 the first month, 125 the second mind and 42 the next week, yeah- that 42 strikes me as a slump. If those aren't the numbers, this is moot.
    A fool and his money can throw one heck of a party!

  6. #1031
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    Re: 2018 Giancarlo Stanton Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePinStripes View Post
    Then I've been given two sets of numbers:



    Someone who hits 157 the first month, 125 the second mind and 42 the next week, yeah- that 42 strikes me as a slump. If those aren't the numbers, this is moot.
    They're actually all correct. His May is buoyed by fantastic bookends - he had a great first three days and a great last three days. The three weeks in between, from 5/5-5/28 he had 83 PAs and produced

    .176 / .253 / .392 / .645 for a wRC+ of 72

    Of course it all counts, but he's been a below average hitter for almost 3/4ths of the season, and his respectable 124 wRC+ on the year is carried by that insane 2.5 weeks to start the season, and basically a week in May. He's probably been more maddening than Stanton, which is difficult to believe.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

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