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  1. #76
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by nnysiny View Post

    I think Paxton is a real "buy low" type, and the idea of having 3 LHSPs makes me
    If he's a buy low, then I'm totally there with you - I love his talent and the results he's produced most recently before he got hurt again.

    Where I disagree is that he's a buy low type. I think the Mariners are building around him, and that if they were to trade him it would be for full ace freight.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  2. #77

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by NerfBall55 View Post
    Fulmer can be that, and I don't know about RR, but overall I agree with these sentiments.

    I'm in pure greed mode right now.
    I definitely like Ray more than Fulmer. Superior K-rates, LH, and at age 25 just had his breakout season. Looks like he's on the cusp of becoming a #1.

    I believe he has far more upside than Fulmer.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  3. #78
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    I love the idea of acquiring Ray. Nobody can hit him and he strikes out a boatload of guys from the left side, but the walks give me the heebie-jeebies about a potential Oliver Perez type downside. Add to that him being a fairly extreme flyball pitcher moving to the AL and Yankee Stadium, and I wonder if the DBacks would be willing to accept what Cashman was willing to give up. Much like the M's and Paxton, I think they'd want full ace freight and then some.

    If they were able to acquire him I'd be pretty fired up though. A young lefty starter that misses that many bats and is under team control is certainly fun.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  4. #79

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmer's Helmet View Post
    I definitely like Ray more than Fulmer. Superior K-rates, LH, and at age 25 just had his breakout season. Looks like he's on the cusp of becoming a #1.

    I believe he has far more upside than Fulmer.
    Wouldn't the cost for Ray be pretty high though?

  5. #80

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    I love the idea of acquiring Ray. Nobody can hit him and he strikes out a boatload of guys from the left side, but the walks give me the heebie-jeebies about a potential Oliver Perez type downside. Add to that him being a fairly extreme flyball pitcher moving to the AL and Yankee Stadium, and I wonder if the DBacks would be willing to accept what Cashman was willing to give up. Much like the M's and Paxton, I think they'd want full ace freight and then some.

    If they were able to acquire him I'd be pretty fired up though. A young lefty starter that misses that many bats and is under team control is certainly fun.
    Sounds like it would strip away a lot of the Yankees top prospects to get him.

  6. #81

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken711 View Post
    Sounds like it would strip away a lot of the Yankees top prospects to get him.
    Perhaps, but when I read some of these threads proposing we trade Frazier and Adams to Pittsburgh for Cole, I would much rather go after someone like Ray if we're going to give up that caliber of talent.

    Ray just turned 26, is LH, has better peripherals and is not eligible for free agency until 2021.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  7. #82
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmer's Helmet View Post
    Perhaps, but when I read some of these threads proposing we trade Frazier and Adams to Pittsburgh for Cole, I would much rather go after someone like Ray if we're going to give up that caliber of talent.

    Ray just turned 26, is LH, has better peripherals and is not eligible for free agency until 2021.
    What peripherals? Obviously he strikes out more people, but he's more of a flyball pitcher than Cole, walks more, and lets up more homers outside of last year. I like that he's lefthanded, has more team control, and is a year younger, but he's never topped 174 innings as a professional. Not to mention that his best year (last year) coincides with a down year for Cole and yet they basically provided the same amount of value when you consider that Cole pitched 40 more innings.

    With that said, if we can get either for Frazier+Adams, we have to pull the trigger.

  8. #83
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmer's Helmet View Post
    Perhaps, but when I read some of these threads proposing we trade Frazier and Adams to Pittsburgh for Cole, I would much rather go after someone like Ray if we're going to give up that caliber of talent.

    Ray just turned 26, is LH, has better peripherals and is not eligible for free agency until 2021.
    Agreed. Trading Frazier and Adams for Cole is absurd
    you are your own happiness

  9. #84

    Re: The 197M thread.

    I just want Ellsbury traded, even if it means eating 75% of his salary. It’ll still bring them further under the luxury tax.
    Last edited by dannyyankou; 12-13-17 at 04:16 PM.

  10. #85

    Re: The 197M thread.

    A Robbie Ray trade starts with Gleyber as the headliner, so that's not happening. Frazier and Adams is not a price I'm willing to pay for 2 years of Cole who hasn't really impressed the last two years. I would prefer to give Adams a chance (no pun intended), but Yankees don't look like they are willing to do that. Realistically CC on a one year deal with an option for a second year is our best option. After that I think that the next best option might be signing Alex Cobb to a 3 year deal with a 4th year option based on innings pitched. Cobb has huge injury concerns, but he is AL East tested and does average over 6.15 innings per start, when he actually starts.

    I know we have a really deep farm still, but over the last few months we have shipped out a lot of promising prospects like Kaprielian, Mateo, Fowler, Guzman, and Rutherford. I know our window is now, and we have plenty of homegrown/young players on the ML roster, but we can be smart and give more guys with potential (Chance/Andujar/Wade) a shot to fill the holes that we currently have.
    Let's Go Yankees!

  11. #86

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    What peripherals? Obviously he strikes out more people, but he's more of a flyball pitcher than Cole, walks more, and lets up more homers outside of last year.
    The following peripherals Ray just produced in his age 25 season are better than anything Cole has done throughout his career:
    • K/9: 12.1
    • H/9: 6.4

    Same with:
    • ERA+ 166

    Additionally, Ray has been trending upwards during the last two years while Cole has been regressing since 2015. Plus more team control, and less mileage on his arm.

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    I like that he's lefthanded, has more team control, and is a year younger, but he's never topped 174 innings as a professional.
    Fulmer has yet to top 164 IP, but that's not stopping many here from wanting to offer Frazier and Adams. And Ray's peripherals show a pitcher with a higher likely-hood to dominate.

    With Cole, you're getting a #3-#4. With Ray you're getting a pitcher who, barring injury, is evolving into a #1.

    As far as I'm concerned, it's not even close.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  12. #87

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmer's Helmet View Post
    Paxton is interesting - he's LH, has good stuff and seemed to pick it up a notch last year, but my concern with Paxton is he just turned 29 and has yet to demonstrate that he can be relied upon to give you at least 180 IP.

    His 136 IP in 2017 is his career high.
    Not true. You forgot to look at his minor league innings and include them in his season totals.

    Paxton has logged 170IP on two separate occasions (2013 and 2016). He tossed 140IP last year.

    Still an injury risk but not as much as that inaccurate 136 number makes it seem.

    Long been a fan of Ray. And Corbin's slider/stuff looked like it returned to pre-TJ levels down the stretch last year. One is a pricey cost-controlled option and the other, a cheaper/riskier one. I'd be interested in either depending on the price. I'm also not a Fulmer fan. Think he's overrated due to ERA. Stuff doesn't blow me away. Gerrit would be nice but will cost too much IMO.

    I think what happens with CC will dictate much of this.

  13. #88
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmer's Helmet View Post
    The following peripherals Ray just produced in his age 25 season are better than anything Cole has done throughout his career:
    • K/9: 12.1
    • H/9: 6.4

    Same with:
    • ERA+ 166

    Additionally, Ray has been trending upwards during the last two years while Cole has been regressing since 2015. Plus more team control, and less mileage on his arm.



    Fulmer has yet to top 164 IP, but that's not stopping many here from wanting to offer Frazier and Adams. And Ray's peripherals show a pitcher with a higher likely-hood to dominate.

    With Cole, you're getting a #3-#4. With Ray you're getting a pitcher who, barring injury, is evolving into a #1.

    As far as I'm concerned, it's not even close.
    Ray is interesting. Fastball averages 94+. Developed a curveball in 2017 that he used 22% of the time after never using it more than 5% in a prior year. Went away from his change up.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...486&position=P
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  14. #89

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melancynic View Post
    Not true. You forgot to look at his minor league innings and include them in his season totals.

    Paxton has logged 170IP on two separate occasions (2013 and 2016). He tossed 140IP last year.

    Still an injury risk but not as much as that inaccurate 136 number makes it seem.


    Long been a fan of Ray. And Corbin's slider/stuff looked like it returned to pre-TJ levels down the stretch last year. One is a pricey cost-controlled option and the other, a cheaper/riskier one. I'd be interested in either depending on the price. I'm also not a Fulmer fan. Think he's overrated due to ERA. Stuff doesn't blow me away. Gerrit would be nice but will cost too much IMO.

    I think what happens with CC will dictate much of this.
    I stand corrected. My understanding was that he missed plenty of time due to a variety of injuries.

    Completely agree on Fulmer - his low K/9 and and durability questions are concerning.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  15. #90

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmer's Helmet View Post
    I stand corrected. My understanding was that he missed plenty of time due to a variety of injuries.

    Completely agree on Fulmer - his low K/9 and and durability questions are concerning.
    Second that. Fulmer could still prove me wrong but I think he's overhyped currently and will be overpriced accordingly.

  16. #91

    Re: The 197M thread.

    #Yankees at about $167M with signed players, what owe McCann, projected arbs, $14M each team charged for pensions etc. Want a starter $12M or less like Cole. Duffy, Corbin to more easily fill out roster, have $ aside for call-ups, July trades still stay under $197M threshold.

  17. #92
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    #Yankees at about $167M with signed players, what owe McCann, projected arbs, $14M each team charged for pensions etc. Want a starter $12M or less like Cole. Duffy, Corbin to more easily fill out roster, have $ aside for call-ups, July trades still stay under $197M threshold.
    Does this include Sabathia?
    Speak softly but carry a big stick.

  18. #93

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by DJ27 View Post
    Does this include Sabathia?
    Yes, this is just an estimate, it could change based on arbitration numbers and/or deals.

  19. #94
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    #Yankees at about $167M with signed players, what owe McCann, projected arbs, $14M each team charged for pensions etc. Want a starter $12M or less like Cole. Duffy, Corbin to more easily fill out roster, have $ aside for call-ups, July trades still stay under $197M threshold.
    I think with CC, the Yanks are now at about $181 mil. So about $16 mil under.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...PAvRQ/pubhtml#

    You need to look at the tax tab of $171 mil and add CC's $10 mil.

    So somebody would have to be moved to take on any more than $16 mil.
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  20. #95

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by budstinks View Post
    I think with CC, the Yanks are now at about $181 mil. So about $16 mil under.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...PAvRQ/pubhtml#

    You need to look at the tax tab of $171 mil and add CC's $10 mil.

    So somebody would have to be moved to take on any more than $16 mil.
    I think 34M is a tad bit high for arbitration predictions. only Didi and Gray should really get anything that high.

  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by budstinks View Post
    I think with CC, the Yanks are now at about $181 mil. So about $16 mil under.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...PAvRQ/pubhtml#

    You need to look at the tax tab of $171 mil and add CC's $10 mil.

    So somebody would have to be moved to take on any more than $16 mil.
    They would also like to save some budget for call up and mid-season trade. So I think they only have $10-12M budget for this off-season, assume that the arbitration estimate is correct.

  22. #97
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    They would also like to save some budget for call up and mid-season trade. So I think they only have $10-12M budget for this off-season, assume that the arbitration estimate is correct.
    So that means either Cole and stsrt with minor leaguers at second amd third or sign an infielder if we donít get Cole
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  23. #98

    Re: The 197M thread.

    Active players (spot trac) - 122M
    retained players (Headley/Mccann) - 6M
    benefits - 14M
    arbitration estimates (per MLB trade rumors) - 28M
    rest of 40 man/call ups - estimated 7M
    Total = 177M

    20M under the cap still, more work to do.

    edit. could be a bit less since CC (and maybe others) have incentives they could hit.

  24. #99

    Re: The 197M thread.

    I prefer the grittiness of Gardner but Elsbury probably gives you the same production n impact if given similar at bats. Reality is that either oldie is the 4th OF despite starting many games.

    If there is a player who fits a need n Yanks really want but $ are an issue to stay underneath the $197 then perhaps they ship out a much more tradable Gardner in order to facilitate that sign

  25. #100
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    Re: The 197M thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    Active players (spot trac) - 122M
    retained players (Headley/Mccann) - 6M
    benefits - 14M
    arbitration estimates (per MLB trade rumors) - 28M
    rest of 40 man/call ups - estimated 7M
    Total = 177M

    20M under the cap still, more work to do.

    edit. could be a bit less since CC (and maybe others) have incentives they could hit.
    Gregorius, Didi $9 mil
    Gray, Sonny $6 mil
    Betances, Dellin $5 mil
    Warren, Adam $5 mil
    Hicks, Aaron $4.5 mil
    Kahnle, Tommy $2 mil
    Shreve, Chasen $1.75 mil
    Romine, Austin $1 mil
    Kratz, Eric $600k

    Roughly $35 mil. at cots vs $30 mil at MLB trade rumors?

    Didi Gregorius: $9.0M (third time eligible as Super Two)
    Sonny Gray: $6.6M (second time)
    Dellin Betances: $4.4M (second time)
    Adam Warren: $3.1M (third time)
    Aaron Hicks: $2.9M (second time)
    Tommy Kahnle: $1.3M (first time)
    Austin Romine: $1.2M (second time)
    Chasen Shreve: $900,000 (first time as Super Two)
    Erik Kratz: $600,000 (second time)

    Not sure why Warren, Hicks and Shreve are so different. $5 mil is a big difference.
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