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  1. #5526

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    jeterrules is definitely speaking from a glass half empty (and it has a leak) approach, but it is always safest to assume regression rather than improvement will occur.

    I think that adage is baked into any sensible predictions though..Which is why nobody is pegging the Yankees to win 100+ games.
    The Yankees should score a lot of runs this year. I think a lot would have to go wrong for that not to happen. (which is possible of course)

    I think whether or not the Yankees win 100 games will lie with the first two starters. If the Yankees win at least 40 games in which Severino and Tanaka Pitch, I think the Yankees likely win 100 games.

    Im not even concerned with winning 100 though, But I suppose getting home field might require that
    Baseball games are not won with a formula. If you can hit, they will find a place for you

  2. #5527
    Word of the Year is Complicit ojo's Avatar
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by fightingirish595 View Post
    The Yankees should score a lot of runs this year. I think a lot would have to go wrong for that not to happen. (which is possible of course)

    I think whether or not the Yankees win 100 games will lie with the first two starters. If the Yankees win at least 40 games in which Severino and Tanaka Pitch, I think the Yankees likely win 100 games.

    Im not even concerned with winning 100 though, But I suppose getting home field might require that
    Well, I think we're all going to be Mariners and Angels fans to a degree to help suppress the Astros' win totals.
    This is not America...No! https://youtu.be/neLXqbR_r0E

  3. #5528

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    Well, I think we're all going to be Mariners and Angels fans to a degree to help suppress the Astros' win totals.
    Hoping the hangover hits them as it did with the Cubbies
    Baseball games are not won with a formula. If you can hit, they will find a place for you

  4. #5529
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by aeromac76 View Post
    I think the championship or bust mantra is a good one to have because it means you have a damned fine team, but I think it makes it awfully tough to really enjoy things... Do I think this team would win a title? Yes I do.. But does that make it an abject and utter failure of they don't? I refuse to say that without seeing how things go..

    For instance, let's say we win 98 games and win the division. The Astros, the defending champs, who actually got better with the addition of Cole and a full year of Verlander, win 101 games. We meet them again in the ALCS and lose another thrilling seven game series. The Stros go on to sweep the NL rep in the WS and repeat.. Would that constitute an abject utter failure for the Yankees? No way I would say that..

    Now let's say we win 87 games, win only the second wild card, and get bounced in that game..

    In both cases we made the playoffs.. In both cases we failed to win it all. But I'd feel VERY differently about those two seasons...

    But even within those two scenarios, there are mitigating factors. The second scenario sounds like a major flop, but what if I were to tell you what Tanaka is lost for the year in April when his UCL finally gives way, Severino has shoulder issues and misses the second half of the year, Sanchez breaks his hand from a foul tip and missed 3 months, Stanton loses 2 months after being HBP and Judge misses 2 months after breaking his wrist running into the RF wall, Torres and Andujar both turn into busts.... Ok, I get it, I am doom and glooming it here.. But if I were to tell you ALL of that happens and perhaps more, we probably sign up for any playoff spot right now and let the dice roll.

    In short, my expectations are high, but there is so much that happens in a baseball season that it is really tough for any team to be considered a total failure if they do not win it all based on opening day expectations..
    Interesting analysis, but the only thing it seems to miss is the middle ground. Suppose all those injuries don't happen all during this season. That is quite the pileup of misfortunes. Instead, perhaps we have Judge adjusting to pitchers adjusting, and piling on Ks at a record clip instead of dingers, and Sanchez struggles. Maybe Gregorius has nowhere near the kind of year he had last year. Maybe Severino starts throwing like the '16 version instead of the '17 version. And on and on. I don't think that's likely to happen, but it could with such a young team. I'm with you on not considering this season a total failure if they don't win it all, but a possible regression and underperformance of these players would be kind of disappointing.
    Yankee fan living in Maine.

  5. #5530
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    I keep hearing Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as possible Target, but don't they both have the stigma of the qualifying offer around their neck?

    It doesn't seem to me that giving up the 2nd and 5th round picks as well as the international signing dollars is worth either of those two pitchers.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  6. #5531
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    I keep hearing Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as possible Target, but don't they both have the stigma of the qualifying offer around their neck?

    It doesn't seem to me that giving up the 2nd and 5th round picks as well as the international signing dollars is worth either of those two pitchers.
    Agreed. I was all for bringing in one more top of the rotation guy (Fulmer, Archer, Darvish, or even Cole), but Iím not willing to give up significant resources for a back end guy who may be no better than our #6 come opening day.

    We have a solid albeit risky five starters, a few starting options in the pen, and perhaps the best AAA rotation in baseball. Unless one of these guys falls into our laps for next to nothing, Iíll take a hard pass.

  7. #5532

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Lance Lynn would be horrible. His ERA was really lucky in 2017.

  8. #5533
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    I keep hearing Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as possible Target, but don't they both have the stigma of the qualifying offer around their neck?

    It doesn't seem to me that giving up the 2nd and 5th round picks as well as the international signing dollars is worth either of those two pitchers.
    You're correct. I suspect that those rumors aren't true OR that the Yankees have an internal evaluation on both that shows where the break even point is on the money/WAR vs the picks/IFA$ and maybe it's getting close?
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  9. #5534

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Goose Gossage has become quite the cranky old b*stard. Of course he was that in his 20s, though.
    Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get. ~ Dale Carnegie

  10. #5535

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Lance Lynn is not really a realistic option because Yankees probably don't offer him multiple years and if you're going to try to rebuild your value YS is probably not the best place to do it.

    That said if the Yankees have good reason to believe he'll return to his pre-2017 performance he could be a nice buy-low candidate. His numbers from 2017 obviously were not great, but prior to last year, he was a guy that kept the ball in the ballpark and consistently gave his team a chance. Perhaps the juiced ball has something to do with that though as he's not the only guy that saw a significant jump in HR/9 (Cole for instance). However, that might be the reality going forward and guys that used to be good at that are not the best bet in this new homer-friendly environment.

  11. #5536

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    You're correct. I suspect that those rumors aren't true OR that the Yankees have an internal evaluation on both that shows where the break even point is on the money/WAR vs the picks/IFA$ and maybe it's getting close?

    I wonder if it's now basically just a semblance of reporters going down the line and looking at everybody they've been tied to. "Okay so no Ohtani that means they're absolutely gonna get Cole. They balked? 'Kay well they like Darvish so lets see how long it takes for them to make a move there. No Darvish huh? Well Cobb and Lynn are the best that remains and they've showed interest so it's gotta be one of those two guys." Both Lynn and Cobb seem so anti what this offseason has been about that it's hard to believe that'd be a move they'd make. The same goes for Moustakas.

  12. #5537
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by fredgmuggs View Post
    Goose Gossage has become quite the cranky old b*stard. Of course he was that in his 20s, though.
    Cranky young b*stard becomes cranky old b*stard. Are you shocked?
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  13. #5538
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by fredgmuggs View Post
    Goose Gossage has become quite the cranky old b*stard. Of course he was that in his 20s, though.
    Yeah exactly. He's just a jerk, but now that he's older he comes across as the old man yelling at the clouds.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  14. #5539
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714 View Post
    Lance Lynn is not really a realistic option because Yankees probably don't offer him multiple years and if you're going to try to rebuild your value YS is probably not the best place to do it.

    That said if the Yankees have good reason to believe he'll return to his pre-2017 performance he could be a nice buy-low candidate. His numbers from 2017 obviously were not great, but prior to last year, he was a guy that kept the ball in the ballpark and consistently gave his team a chance. Perhaps the juiced ball has something to do with that though as he's not the only guy that saw a significant jump in HR/9 (Cole for instance). However, that might be the reality going forward and guys that used to be good at that are not the best bet in this new homer-friendly environment.
    Despite missing more than a year following TJS Lynn returned to post a 124 ERA+. Yes his FIP was shaky so he might have been lucky but his last 3 seasons including the injury shortened 2015 and injury returning 2017 he's posted 133, 129, 124 ERA+ and logged 175+ innings each season.

    He's a a good pitcher if the Yanks find away to work him in I won't complain.

    Cobb is another guy I woundn't mind seeing the Yankees land at the right price.

    As for the IFA money and draft pick if you are going to lose it now is not a bad time when you have young talent at the MLB level and the #2 farm system according to several outlets.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  15. #5540

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    In their search for an infielder, the Yankees could attempt to trade for the Mets' Asdrubal Cabrera, suggests the New York Post's Joel Sherman

  16. #5541

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Luis Valbuena is a guy that can play 3B and 1B in the event Bird goes down.

    Also a LH hitter.

  17. #5542

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

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    yankees, mike moustakas have been in occasional touch, though mariage is called a "long shot" for now. yanks like moustakas and power-packed lineup would be even better, but luxury threshold/draft picks remain concern.

  18. #5543
    Do not vex me mortal Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by OdiN9 View Post
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    yankees, mike moustakas have been in occasional touch, though mariage is called a "long shot" for now. yanks like moustakas and power-packed lineup would be even better, but luxury threshold/draft picks remain concern.
    Id rather hold out and nab Arenado. Iíve been really on him over almost any other FA in the near future.
    In Cashman I trust.
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  19. #5544
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Donaldson is so far ahead of every 3B option for me. Ideally though Andj blows up!
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  20. #5545

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Yankees eye trade with Rays to bolster rotation
    By George A. King IIIFebruary 12, 2018 | 8:53pm

    https://nypost.com/2018/02/...

    According to a person privy to the Yankeesí plans, free-agent Yu Darvish was never coming to The Bronx. However, Raysí starter Jake Odorizzi might via trade.

  21. #5546
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Cranky young b*stard becomes cranky old b*stard. Are you shocked?
    I would have been shocked if Goose didn't say anything but am disappointed he was no invited because I always love his attack approach attitude on the mount. (One post alked about Gibson who I also loved) I actually hope Brain changes and invites him. (Goose will refuse anyway) I kinda like it. He's a HOFer. Like Eck talking about David Price on NESN BOSOX I like this.

  22. #5547
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    Id rather hold out and nab Arenado. Iíve been really on him over almost any other FA in the near future.
    Offseason has been so slow for the remaining free agents I'm betting Yanks front office is just checking in. But Mike M 2017 salary was roughly $5.6 million, 1 year deal for $11 million to play for the Yankees won't impact future targets.

    I would lose my mind if we got Moustakas for this lineup.
    "Well guess what? He's dead. You just signed a dead guy." --pleasepassthesoup

  23. #5548

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bucky View Post
    I would have been shocked if Goose didn't say anything but am disappointed he was no invited because I always love his attack approach attitude on the mount. (One post alked about Gibson who I also loved) I actually hope Brain changes and invites him. (Goose will refuse anyway) I kinda like it. He's a HOFer. Like Eck talking about David Price on NESN BOSOX I like this.
    These ST invitations given to past Yankee players are largely ceremonial. I'm not sure how impactful they are for current players, relative to the work from coaches like Thames or Mendoza.

    But I see the rationale for Cashman's decision to pass on Gossage this year. Goose has always been loud and opinionated where ever he goes. It's usually harmless. It passes. However, this is one spring training where I don't want him constantly opening his big mouth in camp.

    I mean, why add another layer of difficulty for your rookie manager. He has enough to deal with. Goose will start bashing analytic nerds ruining baseball or how Girardi got hosed or whatever. And the press will come back to Boone, "so what are your thoughts on those comments he made on the field?". Please. Thank you Cashman. Brian is having a great offseason.

  24. #5549
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Donaldson is so far ahead of every 3B option for me. Ideally though Andj blows up!
    The same Josh Donaldson who turns 34 in April 2019?
    "Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

  25. #5550
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee View Post
    The same Josh Donaldson who turns 34 in April 2019?
    He'll be 33. Born: December 8, 1985 (Age: 32-067d)

    He also has considerable less wear on his body compared to most players his age.
    Calmer than you are

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