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  1. #3151
    Mustache NYDCYankee's Avatar
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    I would take Grienke back and his contract in a deal that included Ellsbury.

    Expensive very useful piece (and potentially the Yankees best starter) for expensive useless piece.
    "Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

  2. #3152
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    If you're guaranteeing me 30 starts a season out of Greinke for the next four years - regardless of just how good he remains - I'd be significantly more behind the mathematical games with his contract. But the risk you assume bringing him in via trade is that IF anything happens to him at all, you've suddenly got a significantly more sunk cost than the one we're currently trying to navigate around in Ellsbury's contract (which, while annoying, isn't exactly gumming up the Yankees ability to move forward with their plans to rebuild and contend).

    Acquiring an albatross the likes of Greinke's means that you can no longer reasonably move off that sunk cost. People keep talking about Ellsbury's 3/68 left, but it's significantly easier to move off than Greinke's, especially as time goes on. To me there's just so, so, SO much potential downside to doubling down on Ellsbury's contract by swapping it for Greinke.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  3. #3153
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    If you're guaranteeing me 30 starts a season out of Greinke for the next four years - regardless of just how good he remains - I'd be significantly more behind the mathematical games with his contract. But the risk you assume bringing him in via trade is that IF anything happens to him at all, you've suddenly got a significantly more sunk cost than the one we're currently trying to navigate around in Ellsbury's contract (which, while annoying, isn't exactly gumming up the Yankees ability to move forward with their plans to rebuild and contend).

    Acquiring an albatross the likes of Greinke's means that you can no longer reasonably move off that sunk cost. People keep talking about Ellsbury's 3/68 left, but it's significantly easier to move off than Greinke's, especially as time goes on. To me there's just so, so, SO much potential downside to doubling down on Ellsbury's contract by swapping it for Greinke.
    But you are getting a current ace, at least for now, for a 6th of'er and $18 mil per?

    And not giving up any prospects? It would be like signing a FA ace for 2/3 rds the normal cost? For only 4 years.

    What's not to like?
    [B]WARNING![/B] This post may be offensive to little girly men or women with soft feelings.

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  4. #3154

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Not sure how much I believe in Greinke
    Baseball games are not won with a formula. If you can hit, they will find a place for you

  5. #3155
    Mustache NYDCYankee's Avatar
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    If you're guaranteeing me 30 starts a season out of Greinke for the next four years - regardless of just how good he remains - I'd be significantly more behind the mathematical games with his contract.
    But each of the pitchers the Yankees are rumored to be circling have injury red flags. And those pitchers will cost a heavy prospect cost.

    I don't know, if Cash can make the money work this year, I can definitely see the argument here.
    "Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

  6. #3156

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    If you're guaranteeing me 30 starts a season out of Greinke for the next four years - regardless of just how good he remains - I'd be significantly more behind the mathematical games with his contract. But the risk you assume bringing him in via trade is that IF anything happens to him at all, you've suddenly got a significantly more sunk cost than the one we're currently trying to navigate around in Ellsbury's contract (which, while annoying, isn't exactly gumming up the Yankees ability to move forward with their plans to rebuild and contend).

    Acquiring an albatross the likes of Greinke's means that you can no longer reasonably move off that sunk cost. People keep talking about Ellsbury's 3/68 left, but it's significantly easier to move off than Greinke's, especially as time goes on. To me there's just so, so, SO much potential downside to doubling down on Ellsbury's contract by swapping it for Greinke.
    Nobody can guarantee that Greinke will make 30 starts every year for the next four years, or any other starter for that matter. From his history, though, Greinke has been as durable as they come. Since 2008 the fewest starts he's made in a season has been 26, which was last year. 7 of the past 10 years he has pitched 200+ innings. The dude is a workhorse.

    If Cashman could swing a 1-for-1 trade of Ellsbury(of course he has to waive his undeserved NTC) for Greinke, I think he has to pull the trigger on such a deal. One pause that Greinke gives me is his past anxiety, which hasn't surfaced for a long time as far as we know.

  7. #3157

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by WWJD View Post
    Not even factoring in the other peices a straight swap of Ellsbury and Grienke saves the more cost conscious Diamond Backs about 70 million over the life of the deal. That is HUGE in terms of the strict budget they have been given by ownership to adhere to especially if they want to sign a big ticket FA like JD.

    For us since Ellsbury essentially would be a bench warmer (so you don't lose really any tangible production by trading him away) Greinke essentially becomes a 4 year 70 million dollar contract. Which works out to a 17.5mill AAV. The guy is a horse and hasnt had a ton of injury in his career. What you figure to get back is likely 2 years of a TOR starter who can match zeros with some of dominant pitchers on the other playoff teams and then possibly drop off due to age.

    Keep in mind the true value is in the fact that he may be key in helping win a championship which is the biggest value in itself.

    The alternative keep Ellsbury (or unload him eating like 75% of his contract) and sign Darvish or Arrietta. Im being conservative in the guesstimate even but that works out to 3/45 (15 AAV) on Ellsbury+ 27.5 AAV for 5 years on Darvish.

    So ask yourself the 'opportunity cost' question : 180million for 5 years of Darvish or 70 mill for 4 years of Greinke?

    The guys that could come in trade are not Darvish or Grienke IMO. Only Duffy has that potential IMO. And right now the demand is sky high and the cost in prospects is too.

    Of course this is all contingent on Ells waiving his no trade clause.
    So your point is Grienke or Darvish? That's bizzare. There is no way you can say Fulmer, Cole, or Duffy are song shot to meet or bea those guys. Especially when you look beyond a year or two.

    Everything points at them looking for a young cost controlled pitcher. They have a crazy deep farm system. If they can find the right deal, then that makes a lot morse sense. Greinke making 32 million in that 4th year as awful. The Yankes were also concerned about him mentally in the past. What if he starts to struggle at the end of his career? It could be horrendous.

    Edit: sorry for spelling issues. I'm on my phone.

  8. #3158
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee View Post
    But each of the pitchers the Yankees are rumored to be circling have injury red flags. And those pitchers will cost a heavy prospect cost.

    I don't know, if Cash can make the money work this year, I can definitely see the argument here.
    I see the argument for sure - but even the positives I see in it are extremely myopic. There's just too much risk for my taste, and the potential downside is immediately predictable (his age, moving back to the AL). It's not just, "well his arm could explode" type risk to me.

    In the last 40 years there have been only six RHP to post a FIP under 4 across their age 36 and 37 seasons (minimum 300 IP) in the American League. Many more in the NL (14), but just six in the AL:
      1. Jack Morris - 3.72
      2. Mike Mussina - 3.72
      3. Doyle Alexander - 3.81
      4. Danny Darwin - 3.85
      5. Charlie Hough - 3.90
      6. Bob Tewksbury - 3.98

    That's it. That's the absolute top end, best case scenario historically of dependable RH starters in their age 36-37 seasons over the last 40 years facing the DH.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  9. #3159

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Total speculation, but I could easily see Ellsbury saying that he'll only waive his NTC if his 4th year option gets picked up. A lot of guys play that game, and he's not crazy about leaving...

  10. #3160
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee View Post
    I would take Grienke back and his contract in a deal that included Ellsbury.

    Expensive very useful piece (and potentially the Yankees best starter) for expensive useless piece.
    Agreed..... we need to maximize our dollars spent.
    Speak softly but carry a big stick.

  11. #3161
    Calls a tool a tool
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sandlot View Post
    Total speculation, but I could easily see Ellsbury saying that he'll only waive his NTC if his 4th year option gets picked up. A lot of guys play that game, and he's not crazy about leaving...
    That wont happen. He is owed 67 million, of which we will be paying in cash or talent about 52 million to get rid of him. That means we are only saving a total of 15 million. To pick up his option, we would have to incur another 16 million in order to save the 15 million, which means we are saving nothing. We might as well just DFA him in that scenario.

  12. #3162

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Yankees and Pirates are discussing a deal that would bring right-hander Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh and possibly would include outfielder Clint Frazier leaving The Bronx.

    https://nypost.com/2017/12/14/it-may...otation-needs/

  13. #3163

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by fightingirish595 View Post
    Not sure how much I believe in Greinke
    Thats the key in the equation. I see a bulldog who logs 200innings almost every year and rarely gets hurt. Also.one of those guys who is a smart pitcher like a Mussina and will be able to pitch effectively if not dominantly until 36-37 .

    Thats easily worth the risk if have his salary is being offset (either via Ellsbury or them giving us 70million to take him).

  14. #3164

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    I see the argument for sure - but even the positives I see in it are extremely myopic. There's just too much risk for my taste, and the potential downside is immediately predictable (his age, moving back to the AL). It's not just, "well his arm could explode" type risk to me.

    In the last 40 years there have been only six RHP to post a FIP under 4 across their age 36 and 37 seasons (minimum 300 IP) in the American League. Many more in the NL (14), but just six in the AL:
      1. Jack Morris - 3.72
      2. Mike Mussina - 3.72
      3. Doyle Alexander - 3.81
      4. Danny Darwin - 3.85
      5. Charlie Hough - 3.90
      6. Bob Tewksbury - 3.98

    That's it. That's the absolute top end, best case scenario historically of dependable RH starters in their age 36-37 seasons over the last 40 years facing the DH.
    Hmmmm

  15. #3165

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    I see the argument for sure - but even the positives I see in it are extremely myopic. There's just too much risk for my taste, and the potential downside is immediately predictable (his age, moving back to the AL). It's not just, "well his arm could explode" type risk to me.

    In the last 40 years there have been only six RHP to post a FIP under 4 across their age 36 and 37 seasons (minimum 300 IP) in the American League. Many more in the NL (14), but just six in the AL:
      1. Jack Morris - 3.72
      2. Mike Mussina - 3.72
      3. Doyle Alexander - 3.81
      4. Danny Darwin - 3.85
      5. Charlie Hough - 3.90
      6. Bob Tewksbury - 3.98

    That's it. That's the absolute top end, best case scenario historically of dependable RH starters in their age 36-37 seasons over the last 40 years facing the DH.
    Not worried about the last 2 years especially if he helps bring another championship to the Bronx. And that will be at the effectively adjusted cost of 17mill for the next 4 years not 34.

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