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  1. #3426
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    He is a young kid who is evidently improving all the time at 3B, but no one who knows anything questions his bat. Let's look at the numbers, all from Scranton:

    Miguel Andujar-.866 OPS (22 years old, 250 PAs, 2017)
    Clint Frazier-.816 OPS (22 years old, 320 PAs, 2017)
    Aaron Judge-.854 OPS (24 years old, 410 PAs, 2016)
    Gary Sanchez-.807 OPS (23 years old, 313 PAs, 2016)
    Holy hyperbole, Batman!

    I enjoy your optimism on him though!
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  2. #3427

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    They can get a starter mid-season if they need, otherwise it's time to start trying guys like German and Sheffield and Adams when holes open up.

    To me the only semi-necessary thing left is upgrading backup catcher, maybe Alex Avila as a FA or a trade for someone cost-controlled but better than Romine.

    Still think getting somebody better than Torreyes to handle 3B if/when Andujar's defense falters is pretty important but I can see the other side of the coin there. In the case of a starter, I wouldn't mind German getting a chance. I like Sheffield but much later on and I think Adams is a touch helium assisted until he can extend his starts a bit.


    And I'm with you on grabbing anybody better than Romine to be the BUC.

  3. #3428

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SLURPEE View Post

    I don’t know what the big deal is. As some have stated, they would be the 8 and 9 hitters. If Torres is advanced as many believe and Andujar bat is ML ready, this shouldn’t be a problem early in the season. If they ( maybe more so Andujar) don’t cut it, make trade in July.
    Think of some of the rank average players who have played on title winning teams. Brosius, for example, is remembered so fondly but many forget that he was way below average some of those seasons.
    People will then refer to some mythical idea of him being a clutch postseason performer but in reality, he was an average player who was fortunate to be where he was.

    Unless some of these guys are straight butchers in the field, there is nothing to fear about their offense, on this team especially.
    "Owning the Yankees," Steinbrenner once said, "is like owning the Mona Lisa."

  4. #3429

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    He is a young kid who is evidently improving all the time at 3B, but no one who knows anything questions his bat. Let's look at the numbers, all from Scranton:

    Miguel Andujar-.866 OPS (22 years old, 250 PAs, 2017)
    Clint Frazier-.816 OPS (22 years old, 320 PAs, 2017)
    Aaron Judge-.854 OPS (24 years old, 410 PAs, 2016)
    Gary Sanchez-.807 OPS (23 years old, 313 PAs, 2016)
    By that logic, Austin must be better than them all. He had a AAA OPS of .886 in 2017 and 1.051 in 2016.

  5. #3430
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gusto View Post
    By that logic, Austin must be better than them all. He had a AAA OPS of .886 in 2017 and 1.051 in 2016.
    Not a good comp. Tyler Austin [now 26 years old] has over 700 plate appearances in AAA over the span of 3 seasons.
    My Top 100 Films of 2015: http://funnylookinfilms.tumblr.com/

  6. #3431

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 21stAmendment View Post
    Not a good comp. Tyler Austin [now 26 years old] has over 700 plate appearances in AAA over the span of 3 seasons.
    That wasn't the case in 2016, his age 24 season.

  7. #3432

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Right, the age is important, obviously.

    I'm not saying that Andujar is a sure thing, or anywhere close, but his bat is certainly ready to be given a chance, and it sounds like his defense is a work in progress but it is indeed progressing.

  8. #3433
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    no one who knows anything questions his bat.
    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    I'm not saying that Andujar is a sure thing, or anywhere close, but his bat is certainly ready to be given a chance
    abbey, are you trying to make up for CP's absence?

    I think there are definitely questions about his bat, but I totally agree with the second quote - there's no reason not to get him exposure to ML pitching. He earned that with his meteoric rise last season, IMO.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  9. #3434

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gusto View Post
    That wasn't the case in 2016, his age 24 season.
    .

    Mike Ford .932 ops AAA , split last season between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and combined to post a .270/.404/.471 line with 20 home runs and 86 RBIs in 126 games, with 94 walks and 72 strikeouts.

    We lost him Rule 5 draft

  10. #3435

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimeyank View Post
    .

    Mike Ford .932 ops AAA , split last season between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and combined to post a .270/.404/.471 line with 20 home runs and 86 RBIs in 126 games, with 94 walks and 72 strikeouts.

    We lost him Rule 5 draft
    I liked Ford. Idk why we didn't play him last season with our atrocious 1b play (at least before Headley)

  11. #3436

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimeyank View Post
    .

    Mike Ford .932 ops AAA , split last season between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and combined to post a .270/.404/.471 line with 20 home runs and 86 RBIs in 126 games, with 94 walks and 72 strikeouts.

    We lost him Rule 5 draft
    One of Mike Ford's college teammates at Princeton was the son of Scott Servais, manager of the Seattle Mariners, who selected Ford in the Rule 5 draft.

  12. #3437
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JudgementDay1123 View Post
    I liked Ford. Idk why we didn't play him last season with our atrocious 1b play (at least before Headley)
    Especially when we decided to go out and get Cooper, who played well but was basically in the same position as Ford.

  13. #3438

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    Right, the age is important, obviously.

    I'm not saying that Andujar is a sure thing, or anywhere close, but his bat is certainly ready to be given a chance, and it sounds like his defense is a work in progress but it is indeed progressing.
    That's the way I view him too. He has knocked on the door and deserves his shot, but no sure thing he will hit at the next level. Look at Profar and Montero.

  14. #3439

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ElDandy View Post
    All of that is second to finding a young cost controlled starter.
    Don't they already have a young, cost controlled starter within the organization?

  15. #3440
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Besides Glasnow from the Pirates, I wonder if the Cardinals would be willing to part with any of Reyes, Flaherty, or Weaver for a prospect package. Frazier is probably not as a appealing now that they've got Ozuna to go along with Pham and Fowler, so I wonder what it would take from them?
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  16. #3441

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Don't they already have a young, cost controlled starter within the organization?

    I'm assuming you're talking Severino? Surely. I don't believe there's a limit to the # of ones you can have though.

  17. #3442

    Post Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jon abbey View Post
    He is a young kid who is evidently improving all the time at 3B, but no one who knows anything questions his bat.
    This sounds like the same thing fans were saying about Jesus Montero after his major legue debut just because he looked good in a cup of coffee.

    I'm all for playing the kid if he's the team's best option, but I'm not going to kid myself into thinking he's a can't-miss prospect.

    Let's look at the numbers, all from Scranton:

    Miguel Andujar-.866 OPS (22 years old, 250 PAs, 2017)
    There's no question that he looked good in Scranton during the regular season. Looked good at Trenton as well. Between the two, he batted .315 for the season. That's very good.

    But let's look at his complete body of work:

    1. He fizzled down the stretch, batting only .184 in September.
    2. His September decline included the IL playoffs in which he batted only .235 and from which the stats were not included included in his minor league season totals.
    3. His September futility continued into the Dominican Winter League where he batted only .185 in 18 games.
    4. When his 2 postseason stints (combined .202 BA in 99 AB) are calculated into the mix, his minor league BA drops 20 points for the season to .295. Still good, but no longer at the level he was at in his first 125 games.

    This then leaves him still without a single minor league season in which he's batted .300 for a full season after having played more than 125 games a year in his last 4 minor league seasons. He's a .274 career minor league hitter without a lot of power, speed, or walks and with suspect defense. There would seem to be lots of questions going forward.

  18. #3443

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ElDandy View Post
    I'm assuming you're talking Severino? Surely. I don't believe there's a limit to the # of ones you can have though.
    I'm talking about Adams. Throw German into the conversation as well just for the heck of it.

    I'm talking about the organizational depth in pitching that we all rave about. They should use it.

  19. #3444

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    I'm talking about Adams. Throw German into the conversation as well just for the heck of it.

    I'm talking about the organizational depth in pitching that we all rave about. They should use it.

    Adams' struggles/the why not's have been debated pretty fervently so I'm not sure I can contribute to it anymore than others have. Struggles with his secondary stuff, kinda walk happy, still working on some things and developing as a starter etc etc. I like German quite a bit but he's not stopping me from getting a Cole/Fulmer/Duffy type. I actually think you could give him Warren's job and he'd excel.


    Also I'd argue that sometimes using organizational depth is dealing some of it to get somebody who fits a long term role for your organization. Not every prospect mind you but if you have 5-6 pitchers all sort of stuck on the same level, moving some of the excess for something that helps you right now AND for the foreseeable future is well worth discussing.

  20. #3445

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ElDandy View Post
    Adams' struggles/the why not's have been debated pretty fervently so I'm not sure I can contribute to it anymore than others have. Struggles with his secondary stuff, kinda walk happy, still working on some things and developing as a starter etc etc. I like German quite a bit but he's not stopping me from getting a Cole/Fulmer/Duffy type. I actually think you could give him Warren's job and he'd excel.
    Yes, there are posters here who like to nitpick a pitcher’s peripherals to the point of discarding a prospect who doesn’t present the perfect profile. And sure, Adams’ walks (3.4/9 at Scranton this year) werehigher than you’d like to see. Some think that will undermine his strengths, which include a ridiculously low 6.3 H/9 for an overall WHIP of 1.08. Anyone would normally be delighted with that kind of WHIP, and so would his critics of the Walks were lower. That means they’d accept more hits instead of the Walks. They also don’t like his 5.6 IP/GS. OK, I accept those as valid criticisms of his game. He could probably benefit from being stretched out some more and improving his Walks rate. Imagine how good he’ll be once he’s done that.

    But here’s the rub. We already have 5 starters. He’ll be starting the season in Scranton to work on those things to get ready for a time later in the season when he’s needed for a call up. So are we talking about getting another young, cost controlled starter so we can bump Montgomery to Scranton? Monty is the young, cost controlled starter that we already have. Bumping him would be insane IMO.

    We tend to see the warts on those who are closest to us. Do we really want to hold back the development of Montgomery, Adams, and German so we can roll the dice on Fuller and his arm problems? He’s not a perfect solution either. Or do we want to roll the dice on Cole’s elbow, which caused him to miss more than 2 months and a dozen starts in 2016. After returning in 2017, he wasn’t as effective as he’d been in 2015. And since when do the Pirates trade young, cost controlled pitchers that they believe in? They’re usually doing the opposite. Then there’s Duffy. Already 29, he’s never reached even 180 innings. Not exactly a work horse. Despite having already had TJS, HE’s again dealing with elbow issues this off season which shut him down at the end of the year. And he costs $13 million per year.

    I’d rather roll the dice with what we’ve got andsee what they can do.

  21. #3446

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Yes, there are posters here who like to nitpick a pitcher’s peripherals to the point of discarding a prospect who doesn’t present the perfect profile. And sure, Adams’ walks (3.4/9 at Scranton this year) werehigher than you’d like to see. Some think that will undermine his strengths, which include a ridiculously low 6.3 H/9 for an overall WHIP of 1.08. Anyone would normally be delighted with that kind of WHIP, and so would his critics of the Walks were lower. That means they’d accept more hits instead of the Walks. They also don’t like his 5.6 IP/GS. OK, I accept those as valid criticisms of his game. He could probably benefit from being stretched out some more and improving his Walks rate. Imagine how good he’ll be once he’s done that.

    But here’s the rub. We already have 5 starters. He’ll be starting the season in Scranton to work on those things to get ready for a time later in the season when he’s needed for a call up. So are we talking about getting another young, cost controlled starter so we can bump Montgomery to Scranton? Monty is the young, cost controlled starter that we already have. Bumping him would be insane IMO.

    We tend to see the warts on those who are closest to us. Do we really want to hold back the development of Montgomery, Adams, and German so we can roll the dice on Fuller and his arm problems? He’s not a perfect solution either. Or do we want to roll the dice on Cole’s elbow, which caused him to miss more than 2 months and a dozen starts in 2016. After returning in 2017, he wasn’t as effective as he’d been in 2015. And since when do the Pirates trade young, cost controlled pitchers that they believe in? They’re usually doing the opposite. Then there’s Duffy. Already 29, he’s never reached even 180 innings. Not exactly a work horse. Despite having already had TJS, HE’s again dealing with elbow issues this off season which shut him down at the end of the year. And he costs $13 million per year.

    I’d rather roll the dice with what we’ve got andsee what they can do.


    Bill, you absolutely nailed it. Couldn't agree more.

    Great post.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  22. #3447

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Yes, there are posters here who like to nitpick a pitcher’s peripherals to the point of discarding a prospect who doesn’t present the perfect profile. And sure, Adams’ walks (3.4/9 at Scranton this year) werehigher than you’d like to see. Some think that will undermine his strengths, which include a ridiculously low 6.3 H/9 for an overall WHIP of 1.08. Anyone would normally be delighted with that kind of WHIP, and so would his critics of the Walks were lower. That means they’d accept more hits instead of the Walks. They also don’t like his 5.6 IP/GS. OK, I accept those as valid criticisms of his game. He could probably benefit from being stretched out some more and improving his Walks rate. Imagine how good he’ll be once he’s done that.
    I can absolutely see your point here outside of the idea of "nitpicking". I also don't think it's nitpicking to point out flaws in need of correction or issues in need of addressing. To assume he can never get better at it would be unfair to him and his development. For me the concerns I have are that the fact he seemed to really hit a wall late in the year as he got pushed behind his normal innings capacity only strengthen the idea he just might be a reliever.

    Still I see his value and understand. I guess I'm a "year too late" kinda guy where others are a "year too soon" kinda guy. For me it's similar to Miguel Andujar.



    But here’s the rub. We already have 5 starters. He’ll be starting the season in Scranton to work on those things to get ready for a time later in the season when he’s needed for a call up. So are we talking about getting another young, cost controlled starter so we can bump Montgomery to Scranton? Monty is the young, cost controlled starter that we already have. Bumping him would be insane IMO.

    Well I mean I understand what you're saying. I would just counter that this is their plan or has been their plan from the get go. Originally it was CC and Ohtani but now it's CC and -insert starter here- with Montgomery likely slotting into AAA as insurance. Chances are that's what this team views him as. It's fair to point out that he wasn't their top option for the job out of spring training and they acquired two different starters in July seemingly for the purpose of moving him back to AAA. That's not to suggest they don't like him of course but they don't see him the way maybe others do. Maybe they're just concerned that the dreaded sophomore slump that seemed to claim Joba, IPK, Hughes and recently Severino will be in play as well?


    It's also worth pointing out that his second half wasn't really necessarily the stuff of legend either. He didn't completely crater but he DID struggle as young pitchers tend to do from time to time. I think we could all argue that the yoyo act didn't help of course. His second half was really saved by three starts at the end of the year when the O's and Rays were really playing out the string. It doesn't mitigate what he accomplished mind you but if we're searching for how's and why's then maybe the second half spooked 'em.


    We tend to see the warts on those who are closest to us. Do we really want to hold back the development of Montgomery, Adams, and German so we can roll the dice on Fuller and his arm problems? He’s not a perfect solution either. Or do we want to roll the dice on Cole’s elbow, which caused him to miss more than 2 months and a dozen starts in 2016. After returning in 2017, he wasn’t as effective as he’d been in 2015. And since when do the Pirates trade young, cost controlled pitchers that they believe in? They’re usually doing the opposite.
    Then there’s Duffy. Already 29, he’s never reached even 180 innings. Not exactly a work horse. Despite having already had TJS, HE’s again dealing with elbow issues this off season which shut him down at.
    I don't entirely like all three options but it's absolutely fair to suggest that the heights of the three arms you suggested will never reach the highs that Fulmer, Cole and Duffy have reached. You're comparing two pretty good minor league arms and one arm who has achieved a successful rookie season with warts to a guy who flirted with the NL Cy Young, the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year and a guy who I'm eh on but surely has accomplished enough to be what people smarter than I would consider a high #2 for a team like this. On a contender, we've got a few maybes we're dealing with (Maybe Andujar can handle 3rd, maybe Torres is ready for 2nd, maybe Hicks is 1st half Hicks and not 2nd half Hicks etc etc) and grabbing another quality proven arm who can slot into the #4 or #5 spot on a very good rotation can at the very least give you one less maybe to be concerned about.


    And would Cole or Fulmer really holding back the development of Chance Adams? Montgomery I can get the argument there but Adams by all accounts really could use another year working on things. You yourself laid out his flaws so I don't think acquiring a starter is going to hurt his development. Same goes for German who IMO will max out as Adam Warren-y which is still fantastic value for a ML career but not a guy who you slot into your rotation. You buy them a year to fix some flaws and if they're as good as we all believe they CAN be then maybe another year turns into a beneficial thing.

  23. #3448

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Justin Broyles GZSR‏
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    Almost all of Pittsburgh believes that the #Pirates will trade Gerrit Cole during the Steelers-Patriots game to limit fan backlash. Would not be shocked if that was the case

  24. #3449

    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Matt Kardos‏Verified account
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    If you're a Yankees fan of the belief that Chance Adams has stronger potential than Gerrit Cole, you're sadly mistaken.

  25. #3450
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    Re: 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ElDandy View Post
    Adams' struggles/the why not's have been debated pretty fervently so I'm not sure I can contribute to it anymore than others have. Struggles with his secondary stuff, kinda walk happy, still working on some things and developing as a starter etc etc. I like German quite a bit but he's not stopping me from getting a Cole/Fulmer/Duffy type. I actually think you could give him Warren's job and he'd excel.


    Also I'd argue that sometimes using organizational depth is dealing some of it to get somebody who fits a long term role for your organization. Not every prospect mind you but if you have 5-6 pitchers all sort of stuck on the same level, moving some of the excess for something that helps you right now AND for the foreseeable future is well worth discussing.
    This guy gets it.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

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