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  1. #26

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by aeromac76 View Post
    I think you cannot really say which one to sign as yet, and the reason is we don't know where our strength will be in two years.
    Right now Castro looks like a world beater, Didi has been good since the DL stint ended. Headley is not a factor here, he'll be gone in 2 years. But Torres will be here.
    In the OF is this the real Judge? How does Frazier materialize?

    I think we will sign whichever fills a need. If Frazier busts and Judge is just hot instead of great, and Torres is the next great Yankee, then Harper starts to look like the man.

    If OTOH Torres is not what we think, and instead Judge is really this good and Frazier is awesome too, then the bigger hole starts to be the infield, and then you get Machado.
    And if Frazier and Judge are both great with Rutherford coming up behind them AND if Torres is what we anticipate, then maybe we don't sign either of them.

  2. #27
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Hell yes to Harper. His lefty bat between Sanchez and Judge will go very far to ensure that we have the most dominant offense in baseball, and we can use the rest of our loaded system to fill out a top-end pitching staff. I really like Machado, too, but we're going to need a lefty bat in the middle of the order. I still have faith in Bird, but there's virtually no chance he'll be a better LH batting option than Harper.

  3. #28
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    I have a feeling Cash will trade away some of the kids in the farm for a solid #2 to take us into the postseason. That said I hope it aint Gleyber, Frazier or Mateo
    The real reason why the Yankees keep winning is cause the other team can't stop staring at the damn pinstripes

  4. #29

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    I have no interest in signing either Harper or Machado unless there is absolutely no other option. Pitching and defense wins championships. That should be the first priority. A team needs enough offense but that doesn't necessarily mean a guy like Harper.

    Second, a team needs a well developed organization that provides a steady stream of replacent talent. Because things happen, there are no long term guarantees on player longevity at any age. Tex's contract looked good at the time they signed him. So did CC's. So did Tanaka's. So, keeping the talent pool stocked should be the next priority IMO.

    After that, a team that is a player or two away has to make the decisions they have to make as circumstances at the time dictate.
    Scoring more runs than your opponent wins championships.

    The Yankees have more financial might than anyone, and cannot pass up mega-elite talent when it's available. Harper fits that.

    If the pitching is available, the should be able to acquire, with or without Harper.
    Hideki Matsui is capable of anything

  5. #30
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by NerfBall55 View Post
    Scoring more runs than your opponent wins championships.

    The Yankees have more financial might than anyone, and cannot pass up mega-elite talent when it's available. Harper fits that.

    If the pitching is available, the should be able to acquire, with or without Harper.
    LT....

  6. #31

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by NerfBall55 View Post
    Scoring more runs than your opponent wins championships.

    The Yankees have more financial might than anyone, and cannot pass up mega-elite talent when it's available. Harper fits that.

    If the pitching is available, the should be able to acquire, with or without Harper.
    Scoring more runs than your opponents during the regular season does not guarantee a championship, or even put you in position to win one.

    In 9 years (2004-12), the Yankees finished 1st or 2nd in the league in runs 8 times. They led the league 4 times. They only made it to the World Series once in those 9 years. They were a dominant team during the regular season, but the game changes and the level of the opposition changes in the postseason.

    If they want to win championships, they need enough offense. There is no doubt about that. But pitching and defense is more important to winning close games in the postseason when championships are decided.

  7. #32
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    A year and half is a long time.

    As of now though Machado fills a need better than Harper does so if the yanks are signing one and only one of them Machado would seem a better fit at this time.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  8. #33
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Scoring more runs than your opponents during the regular season does not guarantee a championship, or even put you in position to win one.

    In 9 years (2004-12), the Yankees finished 1st or 2nd in the league in runs 8 times. They led the league 4 times. They only made it to the World Series once in those 9 years. They were a dominant team during the regular season, but the game changes and the level of the opposition changes in the postseason.

    If they want to win championships, they need enough offense. There is no doubt about that. But pitching and defense is more important to winning close games in the postseason when championships are decided.
    I agree. There is the rare year where a team may win but for most of my baseball life, pitching is King..

  9. #34
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Scoring more runs than your opponents during the regular season does not guarantee a championship, or even put you in position to win one.

    In 9 years (2004-12), the Yankees finished 1st or 2nd in the league in runs 8 times. They led the league 4 times. They only made it to the World Series once in those 9 years. They were a dominant team during the regular season, but the game changes and the level of the opposition changes in the postseason.

    If they want to win championships, they need enough offense. There is no doubt about that. But pitching and defense is more important to winning close games in the postseason when championships are decided.
    Data doesn't really support that. Data does support getting into post season gives you a shot at winning it all if your team gets hot for the right 3 weeks.

    Here are the WS winners since 2010 and how they finished in their own league in runs scored and runs allowed for the regular season

    Year - Team - RS - RA
    2016 Cubs - 2 - 1
    2015 Royals - 6 - 3
    2014 Giants - 5 - 7
    2013 Red Sux - 1 - 6
    2012 Giants 6 - 5
    2011 Cards 1 - 8
    2010 Giants 9 - 1
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  10. #35

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Harper or Machado is one player you don't pass on.. One of them will be a yankee.

  11. #36

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Harper please. Please. Please?

  12. #37

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by BronxYanks45 View Post
    I have a feeling Cash will trade away some of the kids in the farm for a solid #2 to take us into the postseason. That said I hope it aint Gleyber, Frazier or Mateo
    Mateo will likely be traded, especially if they sign Harper, they will have absolutely nowhere to put Mateo.. Gleyber isn't going anywhere. Frazier isn't likely either, but he's not an untouchable like Gleyber I don't think

  13. #38

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Data doesn't really support that. Data does support getting into post season gives you a shot at winning it all if your team gets hot for the right 3 weeks.

    Here are the WS winners since 2010 and how they finished in their own league in runs scored and runs allowed for the regular season

    Year - Team - RS - RA
    2016 Cubs - 2 - 1
    2015 Royals - 6 - 3
    2014 Giants - 5 - 7
    2013 Red Sux - 1 - 6
    2012 Giants 6 - 5
    2011 Cards 1 - 8
    2010 Giants 9 - 1
    How does data not support my point? Four of the 7 WS winners finished 5th or lower in their leagues in Runs Scored. My point was that "outscoring your opponents" is no guarantee for a championship and really not the best formula to get there.

    A team's regular season pitching and run prevention stats don't really tell us who has the best pitching for the postseason because the game is so different. Starting rotations shrink from 5 to 3/4. In addition, a team only has to win 4 of 7 (.571), which exaggerates the value of just 2 dominant starters like Schilling and Johnson for AZ. Even one starter who can pitch 3 times in a series becomes indomitable (Bumgarner). In addition, the bullpen is shorter, regular season 4/5 starters are used out of the pen, and even postseason starters can become big factors when there is no tomorrow. (See Johnson, Mussina.) Finally, extra days off change the dynamic completely.

  14. #39

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Saint Bernard View Post
    Harper please. Please. Please?
    Falling in love with theg ball.
    Last edited by Bill Marsh; 05-09-17 at 07:56 AM.

  15. #40
    crescat scientia awy's Avatar
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    lol good thing the yankees are not stuck in the 80's or whatever.

    talent wins period.
    always reasonable

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  16. #41

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Scoring more runs than your opponents during the regular season does not guarantee a championship, or even put you in position to win one.

    In 9 years (2004-12), the Yankees finished 1st or 2nd in the league in runs 8 times. They led the league 4 times. They only made it to the World Series once in those 9 years. They were a dominant team during the regular season, but the game changes and the level of the opposition changes in the postseason.

    If they want to win championships, they need enough offense. There is no doubt about that. But pitching and defense is more important to winning close games in the postseason when championships are decided.
    In the postseason, you still have to score more runs than your opponent to win the game. Can happen in a variety of ways.

    Either way, you said you'd pass on Harper, and I said you can't avoid acquiring that level of talent when it's available, especially when you have the $$ to improve other areas as well.

    So, on that point, you still would not sign Harper, because you believe the Yankees would convert that to better pitching?
    Hideki Matsui is capable of anything

  17. #42

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by NerfBall55 View Post
    In the postseason, you still have to score more runs than your opponent to win the game. Can happen in a variety of ways.

    Either way, you said you'd pass on Harper, and I said you can't avoid acquiring that level of talent when it's available, especially when you have the $$ to improve other areas as well.

    So, on that point, you still would not sign Harper, because you believe the Yankees would convert that to better pitching?
    I'm probably wrong.

    FWIW, this is my thinking.

    1. Right now the Yankees have scored 177 runs as a team. The #2 team has scored 155. That projects to a. Argon of more than 110 runs over the second best team at the end of the season if all remains the same.

    2. The Yankees are averaging 5.9 runs per game. Detroit in 2nd place is averaging 5.0. They are on pace to score 900+ runs and may have a shot at 950-1000.

    3. The prospects waiting in the wings who are likely to join the team in the next 2 years like Torres, Frazier, Rutherford, etc. could make them even better if that's possible.

    If the Yankees have a 1000 run offense or close to it, I would see no more reason to add Harper than I would have seen to add Griffey Junior in the '90's if he had been available. What would it accomplish? It could just upset the chemistry.

    If things were different and the Yankees were like the Mets with good pitching but struggling to score runs, then yes, I'd break the bank for Harper.

    The Yankees have been through this before. They added the best hitter in baseball to what was already one of the best offenses in the game. For 9 years (2004-12), they were 1st or 2nd in run scoring every year but one. ARod won 2 MVPs. But they only went to the World Series once. Without ARod, they would probably still have had one of the best offenses in the game. They would still have scored a lot of runs. I'm not sure how much of a difference ARod actually made.

    They struggled in the postseason because their pitching wasn't up to the task. They signed a lot of free agent pitchers, but most of them were busts. They drafted pitching, but it mostly didn't work out. The old adage is that you can never have too much pitching. In general pitchers seem to be less consistent than hitters from year to year me more subject to injury. So a team always needs to have options waiting in the minors. My priority would be to acquire the best young pitching I could and stock the organization with it.

    But that's just me and my 2 cents. I don't prefer end to have the answers. Just trying to keep the conversation moving.

  18. #43

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Give Harper and Machado all the dollars.

  19. #44

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    I'm probably wrong.

    FWIW, this is my thinking.

    1. Right now the Yankees have scored 177 runs as a team. The #2 team has scored 155. That projects to a. Argon of more than 110 runs over the second best team at the end of the season if all remains the same.

    2. The Yankees are averaging 5.9 runs per game. Detroit in 2nd place is averaging 5.0. They are on pace to score 900+ runs and may have a shot at 950-1000.

    3. The prospects waiting in the wings who are likely to join the team in the next 2 years like Torres, Frazier, Rutherford, etc. could make them even better if that's possible.

    If the Yankees have a 1000 run offense or close to it, I would see no more reason to add Harper than I would have seen to add Griffey Junior in the '90's if he had been available. What would it accomplish? It could just upset the chemistry.

    If things were different and the Yankees were like the Mets with good pitching but struggling to score runs, then yes, I'd break the bank for Harper.

    The Yankees have been through this before. They added the best hitter in baseball to what was already one of the best offenses in the game. For 9 years (2004-12), they were 1st or 2nd in run scoring every year but one. ARod won 2 MVPs. But they only went to the World Series once. Without ARod, they would probably still have had one of the best offenses in the game. They would still have scored a lot of runs. I'm not sure how much of a difference ARod actually made.

    They struggled in the postseason because their pitching wasn't up to the task. They signed a lot of free agent pitchers, but most of them were busts. They drafted pitching, but it mostly didn't work out. The old adage is that you can never have too much pitching. In general pitchers seem to be less consistent than hitters from year to year me more subject to injury. So a team always needs to have options waiting in the minors. My priority would be to acquire the best young pitching I could and stock the organization with it.

    But that's just me and my 2 cents. I don't prefer end to have the answers. Just trying to keep the conversation moving.
    Al your points are well taken, however the Yanks don't get through the playoffs in 2009 without Alex. He carried the team through.

  20. #45

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    I'm probably wrong.

    FWIW, this is my thinking.

    1. Right now the Yankees have scored 177 runs as a team. The #2 team has scored 155. That projects to a. Argon of more than 110 runs over the second best team at the end of the season if all remains the same.

    2. The Yankees are averaging 5.9 runs per game. Detroit in 2nd place is averaging 5.0. They are on pace to score 900+ runs and may have a shot at 950-1000.

    3. The prospects waiting in the wings who are likely to join the team in the next 2 years like Torres, Frazier, Rutherford, etc. could make them even better if that's possible.

    If the Yankees have a 1000 run offense or close to it, I would see no more reason to add Harper than I would have seen to add Griffey Junior in the '90's if he had been available. What would it accomplish? It could just upset the chemistry.

    If things were different and the Yankees were like the Mets with good pitching but struggling to score runs, then yes, I'd break the bank for Harper.

    The Yankees have been through this before. They added the best hitter in baseball to what was already one of the best offenses in the game. For 9 years (2004-12), they were 1st or 2nd in run scoring every year but one. ARod won 2 MVPs. But they only went to the World Series once. Without ARod, they would probably still have had one of the best offenses in the game. They would still have scored a lot of runs. I'm not sure how much of a difference ARod actually made.

    They struggled in the postseason because their pitching wasn't up to the task. They signed a lot of free agent pitchers, but most of them were busts. They drafted pitching, but it mostly didn't work out. The old adage is that you can never have too much pitching. In general pitchers seem to be less consistent than hitters from year to year me more subject to injury. So a team always needs to have options waiting in the minors. My priority would be to acquire the best young pitching I could and stock the organization with it.

    But that's just me and my 2 cents. I don't prefer end to have the answers. Just trying to keep the conversation moving.
    No worries at all. I don't think the points you're making are bad, but I'd summarize it in a few ways:

    1. Putting a lot of faith in a small sample size. We're getting a lot of benefit from stellar starts from Castro / Hicks / Headley / Ells (sort of). I'm not convinced this is sustainable. It's almost like every Yankee flipped a switch at got "good" right now.

    2. There were a myriad of reason for the drought. The fact they added Giambi and didn't win WS - I just can't see foregoing elite talent based on that. 2003/4 could have been two more titles with a could better managerial moves.

    3. I believe they can add Harper AND improve SP. This is the perfect storm - Yankees having young, high ceiling talent combined with a low payroll and the best FA class in history........I'm expecting something awesome.
    Hideki Matsui is capable of anything

  21. #46
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    How does data not support my point? Four of the 7 WS winners finished 5th or lower in their leagues in Runs Scored. My point was that "outscoring your opponents" is no guarantee for a championship and really not the best formula to get there.

    A team's regular season pitching and run prevention stats don't really tell us who has the best pitching for the postseason because the game is so different. Starting rotations shrink from 5 to 3/4. In addition, a team only has to win 4 of 7 (.571), which exaggerates the value of just 2 dominant starters like Schilling and Johnson for AZ. Even one starter who can pitch 3 times in a series becomes indomitable (Bumgarner). In addition, the bullpen is shorter, regular season 4/5 starters are used out of the pen, and even postseason starters can become big factors when there is no tomorrow. (See Johnson, Mussina.) Finally, extra days off change the dynamic completely.
    And 4 of them have finished 5th or lower in their league in runs allowed.

    Which is why the Dodgers have won so many world series with the best pitcher on the planet?

    I get that you need pitching, but you also need offense. Teams that have bashed their opponents have won the WS as often as teams that out pitch their opponents. When you have both you tend to steamroll the competition, a lot.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  22. #47
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    And if Frazier and Judge are both great with Rutherford coming up behind them AND if Torres is what we anticipate, then maybe we don't sign either of them.
    True, if that is the case maybe you go all on on SP..
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  23. #48

    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Quote Originally Posted by aeromac76 View Post
    True, if that is the case maybe you go all on on SP..
    Assuming that Machado was serious about his disdain for the Red Sox organization, I would sign Harper. If we were to sign Machado, Sox might attempt to sign Harper - which would not be pretty.

  24. #49
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    Exclamation Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    Say what? You guys are willing to pay Machado close to FORTY MILLION a year for TEN years?

    And you guys were proposing sending ME to the insane asylum?

    If the Yankees' total payroll is $200M a year that means you are willing to pay one-fifth to ONE player? Ha ha, what a freaking joke! And what happens if this $400M wonderboy has an injury?

    Thus far this year this wonderboy is batting a robust .222 and has an overwhelming OBP of .317.

    FOUR HUNDRED MILLION for this crap??? WoooHoooo, thank God none of you guys are in line for Cashman's job!
    The Internet's most esteemed, experienced and entertaining poster--bar none! You can hate him, or love him, but you CANNOT avoid him!

  25. #50
    crescat scientia awy's Avatar
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    Re: Do the the new big bats change Cash's plan?

    uh he needs to hit 45 homers and ops 950 for 2 years to get that. prob will be lower
    always reasonable

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