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Thread: Castro..

  1. #51
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    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    nah man i think your probelm is with analysis
    Nope, my problem is with flawed/selective statistical analysis. I've been around long enough to know you can skew stats to get the outcome you want. This is true in the business world as well as the world of sports.

  2. #52
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    Re: Castro..

    Why are there two Castro threads?
    http://vimel.ru/e6748

  3. #53
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    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by freebubba View Post
    Most likely - Torres is playing exclusively on the left side of the IF. Also, don't sleep on the possibility of Thairo taking Castro's spot.
    I think Tharo will end up like Torreyes. Light-hitting utility player. I am not sure his bat will carry to be a regular in the Majors.

  4. #54
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    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by Donnybaseball72 View Post
    Why are there two Castro threads?
    No idea.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  5. #55
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    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    Over a very large sample size Castro has a .282 lifetime batting average. So when his detractors state he's not a .340 hitter and will eventually come back down to the mean, that's not an unreasonable statement. The problem I have is they (his detractors) are not consistent with their use of statistical analysis. When Castro struggled greatly last May and June, some of us stated that his stats indicate he was most likely in a prolonged slump and would eventually break out. That reasoning was rejected by his detractors, they didn't want to hear about slumps, reverting back to the mean, bad luck, etc. It was Castro sucks, get him out of town.

    I don't have an issue with statistical analysis, I have a big problem with "selective" statistical analysis.
    Slumps don't last multiple years.

  6. #56

    Re: Castro..

    He's hot and cold. Right now he's playing great, but he will eventually cool down. It looks like he's going to have another 2011 / 2014 season, most likely a little better. Can't ignore the past 4 years, so what will he be like next season?

  7. #57

    Re: Castro..

    I was always kind of neutral on Castro... until I started reading this board more and more. Some people really seem to detest this guy. Now I find myself really pulling for him. I don't think anyone is alleging that the guy is Rod Carew, but he's had a terrific start. He'll likely revert closer to his career averages, but at the same time he's a talented kid whose still relatively young. At the very least, I think it's fair to say that he's a solid player with the potential to be better.

  8. #58

    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by theguyonthecouch View Post
    He's hot and cold.
    You can say that about half the players in baseball. But it's especially true about younger players who are working to develop consistency.

    Right now he's playing great, but he will eventually cool down.
    We don't know that. Maybe he's having a career year. I agree that he'll probably cool down, but until he does, let's ride it out. And if/when he cools down, we don't know to what extent.

    It looks like he's going to have another 2011 / 2014 season, most likely a little better. Can't ignore the past 4 years, so what will he be like next season?
    The last 4 years include 2015 when he posted a 115 OPS+. So you're really only paying attention to 3 of the past 4 years and ignoring the good one in there while also ignoring that his age makes it unlikely that those 3 years are a good indicator of the rest of his career. And last year wasn't as bad as it's made out to be.

    When a player hits major league pitching with a composite .297 BA and .760 OPS for 3 years at ages 20-22. That's a pretty clear sign that he has a pretty high ceiling as a hitter. Heck, I've seen posters on this board get excited about minor league numbers like that. The fact that he has struggled at times since then while still in his early to mid 20s doesn't erase the potential he showed.

    I don't know why the focus for some remains fixated on the struggles and ignore the potential. It my be that at age 27, he's finally reaching the potential he showed when he first came up and which he's shown flashes of since then.

  9. #59
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    Re: Castro..

    Castro's situation in a way reminds me somewhat of Nolan Ryan and Paul O' Neil, both of whom had mediocre records for the first five to seven of their years, then a trade (change of scenery) sent their careers to soaring heights.
    Why do some of us persist in trying to analyze it and just simply sit back and enjoy his superb play for as long as it lasts (and it may not stop being at a superior level).

    Andy
    Yogi is a National Treasure. Let's put him in a National Hall of Fame. The man has no peers.

  10. #60

    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    You can say that about half the players in baseball. But it's especially true about younger players who are working to develop consistency.



    We don't know that. Maybe he's having a career year. I agree that he'll probably cool down, but until he does, let's ride it out. And if/when he cools down, we don't know to what extent.



    The last 4 years include 2015 when he posted a 115 OPS+. So you're really only paying attention to 3 of the past 4 years and ignoring the good one in there while also ignoring that his age makes it unlikely that those 3 years are a good indicator of the rest of his career. And last year wasn't as bad as it's made out to be.

    When a player hits major league pitching with a composite .297 BA and .760 OPS for 3 years at ages 20-22. That's a pretty clear sign that he has a pretty high ceiling as a hitter. Heck, I've seen posters on this board get excited about minor league numbers like that. The fact that he has struggled at times since then while still in his early to mid 20s doesn't erase the potential he showed.

    I don't know why the focus for some remains fixated on the struggles and ignore the potential. It my be that at age 27, he's finally reaching the potential he showed when he first came up and which he's shown flashes of since then.
    Nice dissect of my response

    I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm not ignoring his 115 OPS+ year. That's actually my point when I mentioned his past 4 years. He's hot one year and not so much the next. I'm really enjoying what I'm seeing from him this year, but to be realistic, he will most likely not be able to sustain these numbers, and we just don't know which Castro we will be getting next year. But for now, WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

  11. #61
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    Re: Castro..

    Overall, I am very happy with the way Castro is going so far in 2017. Will it last? Who knows. Maybe he will revert to his career averages. Maybe, at age 27, and entering his prime years, he finally "flipped-the-switch", and is creating a "new normal". Not a guy who will hit 340, but maybe a guy who will hit near or slightly above.300, and contribute decent amount of power to boot.


    I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

  12. #62
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    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by theguyonthecouch View Post
    Nice dissect of my response

    I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm not ignoring his 115 OPS+ year. That's actually my point when I mentioned his past 4 years. He's hot one year and not so much the next. I'm really enjoying what I'm seeing from him this year, but to be realistic, he will most likely not be able to sustain these numbers, and we just don't know which Castro we will be getting next year. But for now, WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
    The bottom line with Castro is he will have to develop consistency if he wants to take the next step. At some point this season he will slump, a good indicator of how far he's progressed is how long the slump lasts.

  13. #63

    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    Overall, I am very happy with the way Castro is going so far in 2017. Will it last? Who knows. Maybe he will revert to his career averages. Maybe, at age 27, and entering his prime years, he finally "flipped-the-switch", and is creating a "new normal". Not a guy who will hit 340, but maybe a guy who will hit near or slightly above.300, and contribute decent amount of power to boot.


    I'm just going to enjoy the ride.
    This is how I view it as well. We've seen a spike in his power since becoming a Yankee, and I think we tend to forget just how young he still is - understandable considering how young he was when he first broke in.

    Can he sustain his current production? I don't know, but I like his odds better than Hicks.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  14. #64

    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by theguyonthecouch View Post
    Nice dissect of my response

    I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm not ignoring his 115 OPS+ year. That's actually my point when I mentioned his past 4 years. He's hot one year and not so much the next. I'm really enjoying what I'm seeing from him this year, but to be realistic, he will most likely not be able to sustain these numbers, and we just don't know which Castro we will be getting next year. But for now, WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
    But isn't this precisely what many young player do until they stabilize their production?

    And let's remember that he was adjusting to a new team, a new league, and a new position last year. Once he hit his stride, he was tearing up the league for the last 2 months of the season. What we've been seeing this year is a continuation of the way his season ended, suggesting that last Aug/Sep was more than just a late season hot streak. Here's his slash line for the last 2 months of last year + the beginning of this season:

    Last 2 months 2016 - .304/.321/.522/.843
    First 2 months 2017 - .341/.374/.524/.898

    I don't understand how his age gets repeatedly ignored in the analysis of his performance and his ability. His critics would have us believe that his production at ages 23, 25-26 defines what the rest of his career will look like while ignoring what he did at 20-22, 24. Baseball history is full of players who struggled at times in their early/mid 20's but who then became consistently productive players for many years.

    I appreciate the back & forth on the subject. Interesting discussion about him with different points of view.

  15. #65

    Re: Castro..

    In today's game, I cheered for Castro once with his heads up baserunning. I yelled at the television three times, though- twice for baserunning, and once for his glove.

    Just a typical day in watching him play.
    It won't be long before we can all forget Cano and realize that Castro can be everything Robinson was for us. - Retired_Doc

  16. #66

    Re: Castro..

    age isn't an automatic out in terms of improvement. a lot of players don't improve, get selected out of the majors etc.

    he'll have to keep up his slightly improved approach (though that is getting a bit blurred atm)

  17. #67
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    Re: Castro..

    He's very atrocious at defense and baserunning. Trade now before BABIP normalizes.
    Calmer than you are

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  18. #68
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    Re: Castro..

    Normalizing....

    Last 10 games:
    .194 BA/.250 OBP/.194 SLG/.444 OPS
    Calmer than you are

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  19. #69
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    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Normalizing....

    Last 10 games:
    .194 BA/.250 OBP/.194 SLG/.444 OPS
    You are so predictable.

  20. #70
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    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    You are so predictable.
    So is Castro.
    Calmer than you are

    7/30/2017: The day the Minnesota Twins bought a prospect from the New York Yankees.

  21. #71

    Re: Castro..

    tradeeeeeeeeeee

    he's actually not doing badly this game in terms of approach. just some incredibly bad umpiring

  22. #72
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    Re: Castro..

    Glad to see Castro bounce back with back to back two hit games. We all knew a slump was inevitable but the fact that he seems to be coming out of it after about 10 games could be another sign of growth. I like that he went to right field and up the middle. Hope he stays hot they're going to need him in Toronto.

    Another thing that is under appreciated about Castro is his durability, he plays every inning of every game.

  23. #73

    Re: Castro..

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    Glad to see Castro bounce back with back to back two hit games. We all knew a slump was inevitable but the fact that he seems to be coming out of it after about 10 games could be another sign of growth. I like that he went to right field and up the middle. Hope he stays hot they're going to need him in Toronto.

    Another thing that is under appreciated about Castro is his durability, he plays every inning of every game.
    Yes, he has looked pretty good the last two games. The thing about your second statement- a couple of people on this board think that is a bad thing, lol.

  24. #74

    Re: Castro..

    Interesting trivia . . .

    Castro's WAR is identical to Cano's right now, 2 months into the season.

  25. #75
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    Re: Castro..

    That's not trivia. Also, not true using fWAR.
    Calmer than you are

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