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  1. #1826
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Rollo_T View Post
    Pre-ASB: 197 wRC+, 16.7 BB%, 29.8 K%, 41.7 HR/FB, .426 BABIP
    Post-ASB: 85 wRC+, 19.2 BB%, 37.7 K%, 22.6 HR/FB, .246 BABIP

    There was high likelihood that market correction was due sometime in the 2nd half. We just didn't know the extent of it then. We're seeing it in real-time now.

    Looking at the peripherals, there were a couple of key components that were unsustainable. It was bound to come down. Add the big spike in K rate and it hasn't been pretty. I don't mind strikeouts, but that is just too much.

    I don't know how long and where he'll settle this season, but it's been painful to watch. The dude was Mike Trout in the 1st half, now he's Ellsbury.
    I think the high first half BABIP could be a little deceiving. Yes, it was definitely high and likely due for a correction but it wasn't all about luck. He was hitting the ball hard. He does not appear to be hitting the ball as hard in the 2nd half (albeit that is based entirely on the "eye test") and of course the spiking K rate is well documented at this point. He's either playing through an injury or just has not adjusted to the way pitchers have been pitching to him since the ASB.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  2. #1827

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Rollo_T View Post
    Pre-ASB: 197 wRC+, 16.7 BB%, 29.8 K%, 41.7 HR/FB, .426 BABIP
    Post-ASB: 85 wRC+, 19.2 BB%, 37.7 K%, 22.6 HR/FB, .246 BABIP

    There was high likelihood that market correction was due sometime in the 2nd half. We just didn't know the extent of it then. We're seeing it in real-time now.

    Looking at the peripherals, there were a couple of key components that were unsustainable. It was bound to come down. Add the big spike in K rate and it hasn't been pretty. I don't mind strikeouts, but that is just too much.

    I don't know how long and where he'll settle this season, but it's been painful to watch. The dude was Mike Trout in the 1st half, now he's Ellsbury.
    better than mike trout first half on pace to hit between 55-60 home runs...

  3. #1828

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Rollo_T View Post
    Pre-ASB: 197 wRC+, 16.7 BB%, 29.8 K%, 41.7 HR/FB, .426 BABIP
    Post-ASB: 85 wRC+, 19.2 BB%, 37.7 K%, 22.6 HR/FB, .246 BABIP

    There was high likelihood that market correction was due sometime in the 2nd half. We just didn't know the extent of it then. We're seeing it in real-time now.

    Looking at the peripherals, there were a couple of key components that were unsustainable. It was bound to come down. Add the big spike in K rate and it hasn't been pretty. I don't mind strikeouts, but that is just too much.

    I don't know how long and where he'll settle this season, but it's been painful to watch. The dude was Mike Trout in the 1st half, now he's Ellsbury.
    Dude, you have NOT been paying attention on here. Strikeouts are a GOOD thing.

  4. #1829
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    if there's an injury just dl him until it heals up
    When has anyone speculated that he is injured???
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  5. #1830
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Donnybaseball72 View Post
    When has anyone speculated that he is injured???
    http://www.nyyfansforum.com/showthre...=1#post8364272
    Equally as calm as ClownPickle ~(+/- 1)

  6. #1831

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Girardi seems to be coming around to dropping him the order. Needs to be dropped to a lower pressure spot in the lineup.

  7. #1832

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    I think the high first half BABIP could be a little deceiving. Yes, it was definitely high and likely due for a correction but it wasn't all about luck. He was hitting the ball hard. He does not appear to be hitting the ball as hard in the 2nd half (albeit that is based entirely on the "eye test") and of course the spiking K rate is well documented at this point. He's either playing through an injury or just has not adjusted to the way pitchers have been pitching to him since the ASB.
    Go to riveraveblues.com and look at the fansgraph analysis cited there. Before the break, his hard hit rate was 49%. Since the break, it is down to 32% and on a pretty steady decline. Last year, though he was striking out, it was similar to early this year. This is an extraordinary decline, not just a to be expected slump or regression. Correcting whatever is the cause is very, very important to every Yankee team over the next several years.

    I do not think the primary cause is a change in how pitchers have been pitching him. I think the change comes from him.

  8. #1833
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by rajah View Post
    Go to riveraveblues.com and look at the fansgraph analysis cited there. Before the break, his hard hit rate was 49%. Since the break, it is down to 32% and on a pretty steady decline. Last year, though he was striking out, it was similar to early this year. This is an extraordinary decline, not just a to be expected slump or regression. Correcting whatever is the cause is very, very important to every Yankee team over the next several years.

    I do not think the primary cause is a change in how pitchers have been pitching him. I think the change comes from him.
    Thanks. Good to know my eyes were not deceiving me. FWIW though pitchers are definitely pitching him differently post ASB. There are heat maps that illustrate the difference. I also read on another forum some speculation that he's been getting cortisone shots in both shoulders although take that with a grain of salt since I have not seen that reported by any legitimate news source.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  9. #1834

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by rajah View Post
    Go to riveraveblues.com and look at the fansgraph analysis cited there. Before the break, his hard hit rate was 49%. Since the break, it is down to 32% and on a pretty steady decline. Last year, though he was striking out, it was similar to early this year. This is an extraordinary decline, not just a to be expected slump or regression. Correcting whatever is the cause is very, very important to every Yankee team over the next several years.

    I do not think the primary cause is a change in how pitchers have been pitching him. I think the change comes from him.
    The second half has merely been an expected and slight statistical tweak. Strikeouts are good.

  10. #1835

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Has anyone ever stopped to think that dropping a guy in the order can lead to them putting more pressure on themselves instead of less? Why is it always assumed that such a thing will fix everybody?
    Bad manager.

  11. #1836
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ace View Post
    Has anyone ever stopped to think that dropping a guy in the order can lead to them putting more pressure on themselves instead of less? Why is it always assumed that such a thing will fix everybody?
    I think the primary argument for dropping Judge in the order is to theoretically lower the chances of him from coming up to bat with men on base, which is killing rallies with the way he is hitting. Obviously it is going to take more than that to fix whatever is wrong with him.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  12. #1837

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ace View Post
    Has anyone ever stopped to think that dropping a guy in the order can lead to them putting more pressure on themselves instead of less? Why is it always assumed that such a thing will fix everybody?
    All we know at the moment is that the status quo isn't working.

  13. #1838

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    The pick here is Andrew Benintendi over Aaron Judge - The Boston Globe
    In the long term, the multi-tooled Red Sox rookie deserves the nod over the Yankees slugger

    lolz

  14. #1839

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ace View Post
    Has anyone ever stopped to think that dropping a guy in the order can lead to them putting more pressure on themselves instead of less? Why is it always assumed that such a thing will fix everybody?
    All we know at the moment is that the status quo isn't working.

  15. #1840
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    If he plays for 15 more years at a 150 games a year he will have struck out in 2287 consecutive games extending is record by 2254 games. Impressive.
    No Rally Monkeys, Towels or hankies
    Just 50,000 fans of the New York Yankees.

  16. #1841
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by OdiN9 View Post
    The pick here is Andrew Benintendi over Aaron Judge - The Boston Globe
    In the long term, the multi-tooled Red Sox rookie deserves the nod over the Yankees slugger

    lolz
    Not sure if it means anything but yesterday 3 of 9 starters from Australian Little League team said during telecast that they wanted to be "Aaron Judge". Benintendi may be outplaying Judge right now but he's not on the map.

    Since ROY is mostly is popularity contest, I don't see how Judge is going to lose.

  17. #1842

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Judge might as well come to the plate with a blindfold on these days as it'll make no difference in whether or not he makes contact with the ball

    Hate to say it, but if I had to choose between him and Benintendi long-term I would go with the latter. To me he's much safer choice

  18. #1843

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Benintendi has been up and down all year.

    Apr - .870 OPS
    May -.602 OPS
    Jun - .895 OPS
    July - .643 OPS
    Aug - 1.101 OPS

    We just happen to be catching the two of them at a point when Benintendi is up and Judge is down. Here's Judge month by month.

    Apr - 1.161 OPS
    May - 1.084 OPS
    Jun - 1.167 OPS
    July - .847 OPS
    Aug - .663 OPS

    There's only one month in which Benintendi has hit better - this one, and the month isn't over. Benintendi has had 2 months worse than Judge's worst month - uh, partial month. Judge has had 2 months better than Benintendi'a best month - uh, partial month.

  19. #1844
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Benintendi has been up and down all year.

    Apr - .870 OPS
    May -.602 OPS
    Jun - .895 OPS
    July - .643 OPS
    Aug - 1.101 OPS

    We just happen to be catching the two of them at a point when Benintendi is up and Judge is down. Here's Judge month by month.

    Apr - 1.161 OPS
    May - 1.084 OPS
    Jun - 1.167 OPS
    July - .847 OPS
    Aug - .663 OPS

    There's only one month in which Benintendi has hit better - this one, and the month isn't over. Benintendi has had 2 months worse than Judge's worst month - uh, partial month. Judge has had 2 months better than Benintendi'a best month - uh, partial month.
    Good summary. I wouldn't trade Judge for all of Boston's Killer B's.

    His slump is magnified during the recent two Boston Series. I hope he will come around this season for the Yankees to have any chance in post-season at all.

  20. #1845

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Whether he's banged up or not, Judge could use a stint on the DL to clear his head. Whatever caused the start of the slump...mechanics, discipline, pitcher adjustment...it's obviously now moved to mental and Judge is pressing and overthinking at the plate. He's never had to endure the grind of a full MLB season before, so it can be somewhat expected.

    With his current level of production, it doesn't hurt us one bit to sit him for a few days. The best thing would be to let him to step away, clear his head, rest and come back rejuvenated for the home stretch. Just say it's the shoulder and DL him for a bit.

  21. #1846

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Jmg32 View Post
    Whether he's banged up or not, Judge could use a stint on the DL to clear his head. Whatever caused the start of the slump...mechanics, discipline, pitcher adjustment...it's obviously now moved to mental and Judge is pressing and overthinking at the plate. He's never had to endure the grind of a full MLB season before, so it can be somewhat expected.

    With his current level of production, it doesn't hurt us one bit to sit him for a few days. The best thing would be to let him to step away, clear his head, rest and come back rejuvenated for the home stretch. Just say it's the shoulder and DL him for a bit.
    Who do you propose to replace him in the lineup with?

  22. #1847
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Who do you propose to replace him in the lineup with?
    That question is sort of like a self fulfilling prophesy, you are anticipating he is going to say Ellsbury and then you will point out all the bad numbers Ell's has versus Judge. The fact is unless Joe wants Judge to sit it will probably have to wait until the September call-up or Frazier coming off the DL.

  23. #1848

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by don4yanks View Post
    That question is sort of like a self fulfilling prophesy, you are anticipating he is going to say Ellsbury and then you will point out all the bad numbers Ell's has versus Judge. The fact is unless Joe wants Judge to sit it will probably have to wait until the September call-up or Frazier coming off the DL.
    I frankly don't know the answer to that question. Judge isn't the only one in the lineup who isn't hitting. It isn't just Ellsbury. Hicks hasn't been hitting either. Holliday wasn't hitting before he went on the DL. Clint Frazier has pop but wasn't consistent. Same with Todd Frazier. It's the dog days of August. At least Judge doesn't make outs at a high rate.

  24. #1849

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Who do you propose to replace him in the lineup with?
    Anyone? He's hitting .170 over a prolonged stretch that can no longer just be called a slump. Anyone who thinks he's going to hit his way out of this is out of their mind. It has been declared no less than 3-4 times that his "slump" was over, but it's not.

    The simple fact is that nobody who is hitting .170 over a prolonged stretch is irreplaceable. Unless he was walking at least 2x in every single game with no exceptions. Combine that with some recent defense lapses and the kid just appears fried.

    With his current production, there is no downside to sitting him.

  25. #1850
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Jmg32 View Post
    Anyone? He's hitting .170 over a prolonged stretch that can no longer just be called a slump. Anyone who thinks he's going to hit his way out of this is out of their mind. It has been declared no less than 3-4 times that his "slump" was over, but it's not.

    The simple fact is that nobody who is hitting .170 over a prolonged stretch is irreplaceable. Unless he was walking at least 2x in every single game with no exceptions. Combine that with some recent defense lapses and the kid just appears fried.

    With his current production, there is no downside to sitting him.
    Austin. With Bird on his way back this can be a way to have both in the lineup.
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