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  1. #2826

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    Joe Poz and Bill James recently raised some very interesting discussion about WAR. I highly recommend people to search for it.

    One of the discussion is that WAR may currently be the best available stats to measure players ability and performance but it may not be the best measure for MVP voting.
    Where did you read it?

  2. #2827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Where did you read it?
    https://medium.com/joeblogs

  3. #2828

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HelloNewman View Post
    In 1996 Mariano Rivera finished 3rd in Cy Young voting and should have won it. Neither of the two guys in front of him, Pat Hentgen or Andy Pettitte, had a truly "Cy Young" season though Hentgen came closer. Because David Cone made it back for postseason, people tend to forget that during the "long march" of that season he was unavailable, when Pettitte wasn't pitching, the Yankee rotation was: a diminished Jimmy Key coming off surgery, scared-of-New-York Kenny Rogers, superannuated Dwight Gooden and whatever sh!t they could find to throw against the wall on the 5th day (remember Wally Whitehurst lol?). They won by asking the starter (and whatever mix-n-match 6th inning combo Torre came up with) not to give up more than 4 runs, while they tried to score 5 runs over the full 9. The backbone of that strategy was Rivera and his insurmountable 7th-8th innings. "Only" 107 innings be damned, he wasn't just the best pitcher in the AL that year, he was transformative in how the game is played. It should have been him, but "middle relievers" couldn't win because .... uh, because. Who TF is Pat Hentgen?

    (apologies for Judge thread hijack)
    Sorry, but I simply can't wrap my head around the idea that a part time pitcher is better than a full time pitcher - even given how phenomenal Mo was that season and how important he was to the Yankees. Hentgen still pitched more than 2 and a half times as many innings - 265 to 107. To answer the question of best pitcher, all you have to do is ask whether Mo could have done what Hentgen did.

    And I don't see what was not "truly CY Young" about Hentgen's season that year. At the height of the high offense steroid era, his 3.22 ERA was very good. Compare his 156 ERA+ to the AL CY winners of recent years and it compares very favorably - as good or better than just about everyone except Kluber this season. And none of them were doing it over 265 innings. Hentgen led the league in a handful of different categories that year, including WAR for pitchers. He was a very deserving winner of the award.

  4. #2829

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    Thanks. Greatly appreciate you for going to the trouble of posting the link. Fascinating read.

  5. #2830

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    here's Dave Cameron's response on fangraphs:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putt...to-bill-james/
    the 1890's socialist Player's League, founded by workers:
    socialistappeal.org/history-theory/us-history/959-the-1890-players-league.html

  6. #2831

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Yeah... MVP does not and should not simply go to the guy with the highest WAR. It should be based on how valuable you were to your team's relative success. If you just give it to the high guy with the highest WAR, there is really no reason to vote on it.

  7. #2832
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    To answer the question of best pitcher, all you have to do is ask whether Mo could have done what Hentgen did.
    And yet you don't question whether Hentgen could have done what Mariano did. because Rivera was a "part-time pitcher" who only showed up 61 times?

    Fair enough about Hentgen's excellent 156 ERA+, but just for context, the 1994/1995/1997/1998 wraparound AL Cy winners had ERA+ of 171, 193, 222, and 174 respectively (disclaimer to be fair: the last two were Roger Clemens who may have begun dipping into "the stuff" himself by that time).

    Oh, and comparing raw numbers across eras is a bad idea. A lot of Tony Gwynn's batting averages would look weak in the 1920s.

    Hentgen was in the right place at the right time basically. Randy Johnson was hurt. Clemens hadn't found the umm, "fountain of youth" yet. David Cone was hurt. Jimmy Key was permanently diminished by shoulder surgery. Mike Mussina for some reason wasn't very good that year (maybe distracted by TWA 800 crash that killed part of the high school class in his hometown, where he coaches today? who knows). If there was any year to go "off script" and give it to a game-transforming reliever, that was it.

  8. #2833
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by AllRise View Post
    Yeah... MVP does not and should not simply go to the guy with the highest WAR. It should be based on how valuable you were to your team's relative success. If you just give it to the high guy with the highest WAR, there is really no reason to vote on it.
    If ir comes down to that, Judge is a lot higher than Altuve ... or, er, taller at least!

  9. #2834
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    Quote Originally Posted by -tz View Post
    If ir comes down to that, Judge is a lot higher than Altuve ... or, er, taller at least!
    One of the discussions for Bill James, Joe Poz, Sean Forman, etc. is that WAR is calculated based on projected wins (not exactly as it's based on run create but it's just a concept). It takes out the 'luck' factor or the actual team performance. The question is that if MVP voting should take this 'luck' factor into consideration.

    Joe Poz raises a very good point that WAR nowadays is misunderstood and has been wrongly interpreted by lots of causal fans. Bill James just don't think we should exclude the 'luck' factor in player evaluation. But that's another discussion.

  10. #2835
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by AllRise View Post
    Yeah... MVP does not and should not simply go to the guy with the highest WAR. It should be based on how valuable you were to your team's relative success. If you just give it to the high guy with the highest WAR, there is really no reason to vote on it.
    That seems like an opinion, and there really isn't any rule on what you should consider. My own opinion is that if you're choosing teams for one year based on 2017 stats, who would you pick if you had the first choice? That player is the MVP. Since you need every position, you need to look at the choices available and try not to be stuck with an offensive hole anywhere. In this regard, Altuve might have an edge.
    Let the kids play.

  11. #2836

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SatchelPaigeYankee View Post
    here's Dave Cameron's response on fangraphs:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putt...to-bill-james/
    Very disappointing response from Cameron. First he simply reiterates the thinking that went into creating WAR in the first place and then he presents a series of straw man arguments. He never really addresses the substance of James' criticisms of WAR.

    While giving a nod to James for his pioneering work, he then simply ignores the argument that James presented in his article. Bill James deserves better. Such an innovative thinker obviously has something important to contribute on the subject. It would make more sense to take his objections seriously and to build on them to get to a better place.
    Last edited by Bill Marsh; 11-26-17 at 11:35 PM.

  12. #2837
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread


  13. #2838

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread


  14. #2839

    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread


  15. #2840
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    Re: The Official 2017 Aaron Judge Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by teknetic View Post
    Yea, our medical staff is a complete sh...show. Tex/Bird/Castro/Holliday are some recent examples of their injuries being completely mishandled.
    Remember CMW?
    A fool and his money can throw one heck of a party!

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