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  1. #44701

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    The only reason the economy was able to stay afloat under Obama was the Federal Reserve holding interest rates near zero for nearly his entire 8 years. They were the lowest rates in the history of the Federal Reserve.

    https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds...s-lows-3306135

    Yet, you all give Obama credit for the economic recovery when he had tremendous help for the FED. On the other hand, the FED has been raising rates every single quarter since Trump entered office, and the economy has been growing in spite of it and much faster than it did under Obama. Now that the FED realizes that they need to dial things back a bit, you want to impune Trump?

    If the FED starts cutting rates now, the economy will grow even faster than it currently is, and 2020 will be virtually impossible for the Democrats to win.
    Inflation.

  2. #44702

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    The only reason the economy was able to stay afloat under Obama was the Federal Reserve holding interest rates near zero for nearly his entire 8 years. They were the lowest rates in the history of the Federal Reserve.

    https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds...s-lows-3306135

    Yet, you all give Obama credit for the economic recovery when he had tremendous help for the FED. On the other hand, the FED has been raising rates every single quarter since Trump entered office, and the economy has been growing in spite of it and much faster than it did under Obama. Now that the FED realizes that they need to dial things back a bit, you want to impune Trump?

    If the FED starts cutting rates now, the economy will grow even faster than it currently is, and 2020 will be virtually impossible for the Democrats to win.
    Huh? By what measure?

  3. #44703
    NYYF Legend

    theDurk's Avatar
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    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Casey at the Bat View Post
    Huh? By what measure?
    Trump's best quarter was better than Obama's worst quarter. Didn't you notice?

    (Rs love to pick and choose the numbers they like.)
    "Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it! It's a home run! A three-run homer by Bucky Dent! And the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2!" - New York Yankees announcer Bill White (October 2, 1978)

  4. #44704

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by theDurk View Post
    Trump's best quarter was better than Obama's worst quarter. Didn't you notice?

    (Rs love to pick and choose the numbers they like.)
    2018 was equal to Obama's best year, and it was better than all the others.

    Quarterly numbers are fickle. Annual numbers are more reliable.
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  5. #44705
    Hope is eternal
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    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    2018 was equal to Obama's best year, and it was better than all the others.

    Quarterly numbers are fickle. Annual numbers are more reliable.
    Problem is people don’t vote based on economic numbers. They vote on their own personal situation. When you adjust to inflation, since 1989 (end of Reagan term and trickle down) the top one percent gained incredibly while the bottom 50 percent lost ground.
    Thankful to be a fan of a big market team

  6. #44706
    NYYF Legend

    Yankee Tripper's Avatar
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    Nov 2007
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    Left coast

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    The only reason the economy was able to stay afloat under Obama was the Federal Reserve holding interest rates near zero for nearly his entire 8 years. They were the lowest rates in the history of the Federal Reserve.

    https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds...s-lows-3306135

    Yet, you all give Obama credit for the economic recovery when he had tremendous help for the FED. On the other hand, the FED has been raising rates every single quarter since Trump entered office, and the economy has been growing in spite of it and much faster than it did under Obama. Now that the FED realizes that they need to dial things back a bit, you want to impune Trump?

    If the FED starts cutting rates now, the economy will grow even faster than it currently is, and 2020 will be virtually impossible for the Democrats to win.
    Well if Bush hadn't tanked the economy in the first place with 2 unfunded wars, two rounds of tax cuts, and massive deregulation that led to speculative crashes in several major markets, causing huge govenment bail outs, maybe the FED could have raised rates during the Obama years. Besides the unfunded wars Trumps pretty much following the disaster play book of the Bush admin. He goes to war with Iran he'll pretty much be the 3rd Bush term with less competence, if that's possible.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  7. #44707
    Administrator Bub's Avatar
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    The Boonies

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Trump GDP growth in year one was 2.3% and 2.9% in year two. He was saying 4% would be easy and could go to 5 or 6%.

    Then again he said eliminating $4 trillion dollars of debt would be easy, getting better trade deals would be easy, enacting the best health care plan on Earth would be easy, re-building our infrastructure would get started right away, no more school shootings under his watch....etc..etc...etc....etc......etc. But his rich friends got a big tax break so it's not all bad, right?
    Let the kids play.

  8. #44708

    Re: President Donald Trump

    I was referring to “...and much faster than it did under Obama.” And again I ask, under what measure? Because based in the chart posted by TT, real growth from 2009 to 2010 seems awful fast, and Trump hasn’t come even close to approaching that level of speed.

  9. #44709

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Casey at the Bat View Post
    I was referring to “...and much faster than it did under Obama.” And again I ask, under what measure? Because based in the chart posted by TT, real growth from 2009 to 2010 seems awful fast, and Trump hasn’t come even close to approaching that level of speed.
    I'm not an economist, but this is how I interpret things.

    Actually, let's put this all in a table first.

    Interest Rate By Quarter (%) Annual GDP growth rate (%)
    2008 3.0 / 2.0 / 2.0 / 0.25 -0.1
    2009 0.25/0.25/0.25/0.25 -2.7
    2010 0.25/0.25/0.25/0.25 +2.7
    2011 0.25/0.25/0.25/0.25 +1.6
    2012 0.25/0.25/0.25/0.25 +2.2
    2013 0.25/0.25/0.25/0.25 +1.9
    2014 0.25/0.25/0.25/0.25 +2.4
    2015 0.25/0.25/0.25/0.50 +2.9
    2016 0.50/0.50/0.50/0.75 +1.6
    2017 1.0/1.25/1.50/1.75 +2.2
    2018 2.0/2.25/2.5/2.75 +2.9

    The fastest growth occurred in 2015 and 2018. Perhaps the economy would be growing faster if the FED would ease up on the rate increases.

  10. #44710
    Administrator Bub's Avatar
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    The Boonies

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    The fastest growth occurred in 2015 and 2018. Perhaps the economy would be growing faster if the FED would ease up on the rate increases.
    Why do you want faster growth? The ideal GDP growth rate hovers around 3% which is about where we are now. The Fed makes sure it doesn't slow or speed up too much...no recession, no inflation.
    Let the kids play.

  11. #44711

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Bub View Post
    Why do you want faster growth? The ideal GDP growth rate hovers around 3% which is about where we are now. The Fed makes sure it doesn't slow or speed up too much...no recession, no inflation.
    That could well be true - like I said, I'm not an economist. I do know that during years when growth has slowed down too much, I've ended up losing my job and have had to take a job that paid a lot less. I know that when the economy has grown more quickly, I have had more opportunities for raises and promotions.

    The Bush years were especially rough because it was one bubble after another, and every time I thought I was finally making it, the bubble would burst and I would be laid off. I worked in the mortgage business and in title insurance during the Bush years, so business would boom every time rates were cut because of all the people refinancing their home loans to get better rates. Companies would hire dozens and dozens of people to process all that paperwork, only to lay them all off once the bubble burst. I finally got out of that racket in 2008 and never went back. The ups and downs weren't good for my health.

    I see your point, and it's an important one. Growth is good, but exuberance can be dangerous.

  12. #44712
    NYYF Legend

    Yankee Tripper's Avatar
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    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    That could well be true - like I said, I'm not an economist. I do know that during years when growth has slowed down too much, I've ended up losing my job and have had to take a job that paid a lot less. I know that when the economy has grown more quickly, I have had more opportunities for raises and promotions.

    The Bush years were especially rough because it was one bubble after another, and every time I thought I was finally making it, the bubble would burst and I would be laid off. I worked in the mortgage business and in title insurance during the Bush years, so business would boom every time rates were cut because of all the people refinancing their home loans to get better rates. Companies would hire dozens and dozens of people to process all that paperwork, only to lay them all off once the bubble burst. I finally got out of that racket in 2008 and never went back. The ups and downs weren't good for my health.

    I see your point, and it's an important one. Growth is good, but exuberance can be dangerous.
    The bubbles, and especially mortgage/title were largely caused by deregulation of the financial service industries.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  13. #44713

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    The bubbles, and especially mortgage/title were largely caused by deregulation of the financial service industries.
    Well, that's true. One of the bubbles was the sub-prime bubble. In 2007 I went back to work for a title company that had previously laid me off. I was getting paid more than I had before, and it was nice to work with some familiar faces. Then things got weird. Our lenders had these things called "NINJA" loans. A ninja loan? What the heck is that? "No-Income, No-Job, Approved!" A loan officer we worked with at Wells Fargo was ready to give yours truly a $180,000 loan for a brand new condo, no money down. He said that my income wasn't that great and my credit wasn't that great, but that he could just put it in my wife's name, even though she wasn't working, and that it would get approved. Tempting, but I said no. Good thing I did, because the company laid off 80% of its workforce a year. I would have been in foreclosure myself because my next job was slicing bologna at the local supermarket.

  14. #44714

    Re: President Donald Trump

    They could at least pretend it’s not a lifelong fantasy.

    Lindsey Graham after Iran briefing: “Here’s what Iran needs to get ready for—severe pain. If they are inching for a fight, they are going to get one.”

    “We are a lot closer today than yesterday. And only God knows what tomorrow brings.”

  15. #44715
    Hope is eternal
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    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by philleotardo View Post
    They could at least pretend it’s not a lifelong fantasy.

    Lindsey Graham after Iran briefing: “Here’s what Iran needs to get ready for—severe pain. If they are inching for a fight, they are going to get one.”

    “We are a lot closer today than yesterday. And only God knows what tomorrow brings.”
    Between him, Cotton and Bolton they have the right stooge in the Oval to get their war.
    Thankful to be a fan of a big market team

  16. #44716

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by YankeePride1967 View Post
    Between him, Cotton and Bolton they have the right stooge in the Oval to get their war.
    I don't think Trump will go to war. If I could be right about just one thing, I hope it's this.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we see some sanctions, though.

  17. #44717

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    I don't think Trump will go to war. If I could be right about just one thing, I hope it's this.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we see some sanctions, though.
    For the most part, I hope you’re right too.

  18. #44718
    Hope is eternal
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    Re: President Donald Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Tucker View Post
    I don't think Trump will go to war. If I could be right about just one thing, I hope it's this.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we see some sanctions, though.
    I hope you are right but I have my doubts
    Thankful to be a fan of a big market team

  19. #44719
    Tends to be difficult JL25and3's Avatar
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    Jul 2006
    Quote Originally Posted by YankeePride1967 View Post
    Between him, Cotton and Bolton they have the right stooge in the Oval to get their war.
    Don’t forget Pompeo. He’s been working hard to tie Iran to al-Qaeda so they can piggyback on the old AUMF.

  20. #44720

    Re: President Donald Trump

    Abrams just hanging off to the side, as if he wasn’t involved with arming Iran back in the day.

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