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  1. #1
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    2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    I've been really impressed with the starting pitching depth we have built up in the minors and wanted to try to lay out where everyone will fit.

    Last season, each of the Yankees affiliates in AAA, AA, A+, and A led their league in team ERA last season. We've now added Sheffield, Abreu, Littel, Tarpley, Tate, Guzman, and Swanson to the mix through some trades.

    Even going seven SP deep at each level, there are still going to be a lot of guys not getting much deserved promotions this year. It's a great problem to have, but we will certainly have some logjams this year!

    So here's what I came up with for each level, not necessarily in this exact order. I've also listed the 2016 stats for the guys that pitched full seasons and should start near the upper levels.

    AAA SWB
    Luis Cessa (or Severino) 24, 77.1 IP, 3.62 FIP, 3.03 ERA, 8.03 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 1.15 WHIP
    Jordan Montgomery, 23, 139.1 IP, 2.86 FIP, 2.13 ERA, 8.66 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP
    Chance Adams 21, 127.1 IP, 2.96 FIP, 2.33 ERA, 10.18 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP
    Dietrich Enns, 25, 135 IP, 3.32 FIP, 1.73 ERA, 8.27 K/9 3.73 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP
    Ronald Herrera 21,137 IP, 3.31 FIP, 3.94 ERA, 8.61 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP
    Dan Camarena 23, 141.2 IP, 3.57 FIP, 3.68 ERA, 7.24 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP
    Brady Lail 22, 126.2 IP, 4.41 FIP, 4.62 ERA, 5.33 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 1.38 WHIP

    AA Trenton
    Justus Sheffield 20, 125.1 IP, 3.41 FIP, 3.09 ERA, 9.26 K/9, 3.81 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP
    Domingo Acevedo 22, 93 IP, 2.49 FIP, 2.61 ERA, 9.87 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP
    Nestor Cortes 21, 113.2 IP, 2.67 FIP, 1.74 ERA, 9.90 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.85 WHIP
    Josh Rogers 21, 136.1 IP, 2.82 FIP, 2.38 ERA, 7.59 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 1.08 WHIP
    James Reeves 23, 97.1 IP, 2.60 FIP, 2.22 ERA, 10.82 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.91 WHIP
    Yefrey Ramirez 22, 124.1 IP, 3.13 FIP, 2.82 ERA, 9.55 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 0.92 WHIP
    Stephen Tarpley 23, 105 IP, 3.90 FIP, 4.54 ERA, 7.97 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP
    Will Carter

    A+ Tampa
    Zack Littell 20, 165.2 IP, 3.06 FIP, 2.66 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.85 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP
    Christian Morris 22 120.1 IP, 3.36 FIP, 2.99 ERA, 7.40 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 1.07 WHIP
    James Kapriellian 22
    Albert Abreu 20 101.2 IP, 4.14 FIP, 3.72 ERA, 10.18 K/9, 5.13 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP
    Adonis Rosa 21, 78 IP, 3.03 FIP, 2.19 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, 1.00 WHIP
    Ian Clarkin 21
    Domingo German 23
    Daris Vargas 23
    Miguel Sulbaran 22

    A Charleston
    Luis Cedeno 21
    Dillon Tate 22
    Freicer Perez 20
    Erik Swanson 22
    Nick Green 21
    Brody Koerner 22
    Simon De la Rosa 23
    Jonathan Padilla

    A- Staten Island
    Drew Finley 19
    Nick Nelson 20
    Nolan Martinez 18
    Austin DeCarr 21
    Chad Martin 22
    Jorge Guzman 20, 12.15 K/9
    Juan De Paula 18, 11.63 K/9
    Spencer Mahoney 23, 13.04 K/9
    Juan Jimenez
    Daniel Alvarez

    Wow, that is some incredible depth. There's not much filler at all. I'm sure I made some errors here, so anybody I missed or placed incorrectly here?
    Last edited by Rob035; 02-04-17 at 02:13 PM.

  2. #2
    "The Barrel" ClownPickle's Avatar
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Very nice post.

    I want to be excited but I won't let myself. Our recent SP failures + general attrition rate of mL SPs + the pitcher parks they all play in. I'm cautiously optimistic.

  3. #3
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Very nice post.

    I want to be excited but I won't let myself. Our recent SP failures + general attrition rate of mL SPs + the pitcher parks they all play in. I'm cautiously optimistic.
    Thank you and good points as well.

    Our track record of developing starters has been horrendous. There's no denying that. I do feel like in the past, we've had a few SP that we were relying on heavily to become dominant MLB SP's (Hughes/Joba/Kennedy or the Killer B's). Right now, the depth we've built really differentiates our system from the past 15 years or so.

    And yes, almost all our parks rank in the bottom half of the league in park factors routinely. So that does deflate the ERA's a bit. However, the K and BB rates shouldn't be affected much and those are still very impressive. Also note that SWB, Trenton, Tampa, and Charleston ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st in run differential in their leagues.

    Maybe I'm a bit too optimistic, but I'm excited for 2019 and beyond with this system.

  4. #4

    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob035 View Post
    I've been really impressed with the starting pitching depth we have built up in the minors and wanted to try to lay out where everyone will fit.

    Last season, each of the Yankees affiliates in AAA, AA, A+, and A led their league in team ERA last season. We've now added Sheffield, Abreu, Littel, Tarpley, Tate, Guzman, and Swanson to the mix through some trades.

    Even going seven SP deep at each level, there are still going to be a lot of guys not getting much deserved promotions this year. It's a great problem to have, but we will certainly have some logjams this year!

    So here's what I came up with for each level, not necessarily in this exact order. I've also listed the 2016 stats for the guys that pitched full seasons and should start near the upper levels.

    AAA SWB
    Luis Cessa (or Severino) 24, 77.1 IP, 3.62 FIP, 3.03 ERA, 8.03 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 1.15 WHIP
    Jordan Montgomery, 23, 139.1 IP, 2.86 FIP, 2.13 ERA, 8.66 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP
    Chance Adams 21, 127.1 IP, 2.96 FIP, 2.33 ERA, 10.18 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP
    Detriech Enns, 25, 135 IP, 3.32 FIP, 1.73 ERA, 8.27 K/9 3.73 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP
    Ronald Herrera 21,137 IP, 3.31 FIP, 3.94 ERA, 8.61 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP
    Dan Camarena 23, 141.2 IP, 3.57 FIP, 3.68 ERA, 7.24 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP
    Brady Lail 22, 126.2 IP, 4.41 FIP, 4.62 ERA, 5.33 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 1.38 WHIP

    AA Trenton
    James Reeves 23, 139.1 IP, 2.60 FIP, 2.22 ERA, 10.82 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.91 WHIP
    Justus Sheffield 20, 125.1 IP, 3.41 FIP, 3.09 ERA, 9.26 K/9, 3.81 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP
    Domingo Acevedo 22, 93 IP, 2.49 FIP, 2.61 ERA, 9.87 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP
    Nestor Cortes 21, 113.2 IP, 2.67 FIP, 1.74 ERA, 9.90 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.85 WHIP
    Josh Rogers 21, 136.1 IP, 2.82 FIP, 2.38 ERA, 7.59 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 1.08 WHIP
    Yefrey Ramirez 22, 124.1 IP, 3.13 FIP, 2.82 ERA, 9.55 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 0.92 WHIP
    Stephen Tarpley 23, 105 IP, 3.90 FIP, 4.54 ERA, 7.97 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP

    A+ Tampa
    Zack Littell 20, 165.2 IP, 3.06 FIP, 2.66 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.85 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP
    Christian Morris 22 120.1 IP, 3.36 FIP, 2.99 ERA, 7.40 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 1.07 WHIP
    James Kapriellian 22
    Albert Abreu 20 101.2 IP, 4.14 FIP, 3.72 ERA, 10.18 K/9, 5.13 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP
    Adonis Rosa 21, 78 IP, 3.03 FIP, 2.19 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, 1.00 WHIP
    Ian Clarkin 21
    Domingo German 23
    Daris Vargas 23

    A Charleston
    Luis Cedeno 21
    Dillon Tate 22
    Freicer Perez 20
    Erik Swanson 22
    Nick Green 21
    Brody Koerner 22
    Simon De la Rosa 23

    A- Staten Island
    Drew Finley 19
    Nick Nelson 20
    Nolan Martinez 18
    Austin DeCarr 21
    Chad Martin 22
    Jorge Guzman 20, 12.15 K/9
    Juan De Paula 18, 11.63 K/9
    Spencer Mahoney 23, 13.04 K/9

    Wow, that is some incredible depth. There's not much filler at all. I'm sure I made some errors here, so anybody I missed or placed incorrectly here?
    This kind of depth is why I'd not like to see the Yankees trade for an established major league starter, and whyI'd like to see them move Pineda to the pen or trade him. Failure to move these young guys up the ladder only increases the log jam at the minor league level.

    You seem to have assumed that Green, Mitchell, and Severino will be on the major league roster. I'd rather see .everino in .scranton to start the season and .enns on the major league roster.

  5. #5

    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    AA and AAA rotations will be very exciting to watch this year. I might end up watching more MiLB starts than MLB ones.

  6. #6

    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by nnysiny View Post
    AA and AAA rotations will be very exciting to watch this year. I might end up watching more MiLB starts than MLB ones.
    Me too. Hopefully they start showing the Tampa games this year.

    The lower levels are loaded too ... good year to be a prospect slut.

  7. #7
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    This kind of depth is why I'd not like to see the Yankees trade for an established major league starter, and whyI'd like to see them move Pineda to the pen or trade him. Failure to move these young guys up the ladder only increases the log jam at the minor league level.
    We will have to be very active on the trade market this year for sure. And as long as the focus is on 2019 and beyond, I'm all for it. I see a few different types of trades. The one you mentioned is probably the most difficult to pull off since the price for a young esablished major league starter will certainly cost us a few of our top 10 prospects. The type of trade I see as more likely is the "Ben Gamel type" trade where we trade ML ready, low ceiling talent for some higher upside young players to keep this system stocked and loaded.

    And I'd like to give Pineda at least half a year as a starter. Those peripherials are just too damn tempting. If he puts together a good half season and we aren't in it, then by all means trade him for a nice haul.

    You seem to have assumed that Green, Mitchell, and Severino will be on the major league roster. I'd rather see .everino in .scranton to start the season and .enns on the major league roster.
    Yes, I assumed Severino and Green would grab the last two spots and Mitchell would wind up in the pen. But I could easily see Cessa or Enns ending up as the #5. Montgomery probably has a harder path since he isn't on the 40 man yet.

  8. #8
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Great thread. Thanks for creating.


    That said, I really think Cessa will be in the majors, along with Green and Mitchell. Severino is the one who may end up in AAA if he does have a solid ST, along with showing success with that Changeup.


    AA is really crowded, and will get more jammed real soon if Kap is healthy in Tampa. I doubt he is in Tampa for more than 10 starts if healthy.


    One last note. Some of those Staten island guys may end up in Pulaski, due to the need for a College pitcher or 2 who is drafted who may be sent there, and also because there just is no room there, and all those folks, barring injuries or setbacks, need to pitch regularly.


    Yankees need to make a decision on Spencer Mahoney. At 23, he can't continue to be in short season ball.

  9. #9
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Littell was very good for half a season in Hi-A with Seattle and could reasonably start in Trenton.

    Clarkin was solid for 100 innings in Tampa last year and probably deserves to be in Trenton.

    I feel like I read somewhere during last season that despite him starting last year that the Yankees view Reeves as a reliever long term. Making a move like that could free up some congestion.

  10. #10
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Taylor Widener is another one who may get the chance to start.

  11. #11
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    Some of those Staten island guys may end up in Pulaski, due to the need for a College pitcher or 2 who is drafted who may be sent there, and also because there just is no room there, and all those folks, barring injuries or setbacks, need to pitch regularly.
    Absolutely, I do expect some of these guys to get pushed down a level or moved to the pen if all things go right. I went seven deep at each level (eight at SI) to try to account for some injuries but even then, there wasn't much room.


    Yankees need to make a decision on Spencer Mahoney. At 23, he can't continue to be in short season ball.
    Mahoney is an interesting case. He was a college shortstop that went undrafted. Apparently he worked with a high tech training company and saw some gains on his velocity that helped him with the switch. His stat line and K rate in particular for his first year as a pitcher is very impressive. And since he just signed last year, I don't think there's a big rush.

  12. #12
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by BomberBrian View Post
    Littell was very good for half a season in Hi-A with Seattle and could reasonably start in Trenton.

    Clarkin was solid for 100 innings in Tampa last year and probably deserves to be in Trenton.

    I feel like I read somewhere during last season that despite him starting last year that the Yankees view Reeves as a reliever long term. Making a move like that could free up some congestion.
    You know, I had Littel at the bottom of the Trenton rotation first, but something about him opening the season at the top of the Tampa rotation felt right given his large workload last year. He had a great half season in a hitters league in A+ so he certainly deserves a spot in AA but so do those other seven guys.

    I liked Clarkin's repetoire, but he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. He ended last year with knee surgery and I find it hard to count on him for a spot in Trenton. That said, if he does put together a consistent couple of years, he has the stuff to rise to the top of this system. I'm just not counting on it.

    Oh man, I hope they don't move Reeves. He actually got better last year once they moved him to a starting role. In 12 starts at Tampa, he went 58 IP with a 2.17 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 62/13 K/BB, while giving up only 36 hits. That's just downright dominant. I'd really like to see him get a full season as a starter, beginning the year in Trenton.

  13. #13
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by BomberBrian View Post
    Taylor Widener is another one who may get the chance to start.
    As well as Cater. I would rather him in the pen but they seem to want him to start again.

  14. #14
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    On the subject of Mahoney's, I don't know what the deal with Kolton is.

    He had no business repeating the NYPL. I'd be interested in seeing him make the jump to Tampa.

  15. #15
    Foul pole sitter Skowron's Avatar
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob035 View Post
    I've been really impressed with the starting pitching depth we have built up in the minors and wanted to try to lay out where everyone will fit.

    Last season, each of the Yankees affiliates in AAA, AA, A+, and A led their league in team ERA last season. We've now added Sheffield, Abreu, Littel, Tarpley, Tate, Guzman, and Swanson to the mix through some trades.

    (snipped for brevity)
    Thanks for the great info. If the Yanks can get even just one guy out of each rotation in succeeding years, how impressive would that be. I just hope they don't create another Severino by bringing them up too soon before they develop a full complement of pitches and work on their deficiencies. Farm system depth is imperative and they are certainly getting there.

  16. #16

    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by BomberBrian View Post
    On the subject of Mahoney's, I don't know what the deal with Kolton is.

    He had no business repeating the NYPL. I'd be interested in seeing him make the jump to Tampa.
    Way too advanced for SI even in 2015. He started school late due to a mission trip.
    Get the Yankees prospect coverage you deserve at http://www.pinstripedprospects.com/!

  17. #17
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    I'm really into holding onto as many arms as possible, but there just seems to be enough names that we could deal a few without really hurting our depth too much. We might even have too much of a logjam as is.

  18. #18
    Foul pole sitter Skowron's Avatar
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    Re: 2017 Minor League Projected Rotations

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    I'm really into holding onto as many arms as possible, but there just seems to be enough names that we could deal a few without really hurting our depth too much. We might even have too much of a logjam as is.
    You are probably right but the fear is dealing the wrong ones when they are so close in performance at this point. The minor league officials may make the correct judgments but I don't have confidence that Cashman will adhere to them in the middle of a trade discussion. Obviously I have nothing to support that opinion.

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