Adam Warren: Has The Ship Sailed?

[sjb23]

Girardi: "Adam, we want you to come to ST prepared to start"
Warren (under his breath): "Been there, done that"

Is it finally time to see if Warren can hold down a starting role for more than half a season?
He threw about 130 innings in 2015 but was down to about 70 IP last year, so it might be hard to expect him to carry a starter's workload. Then again this may be Warren's last opportunity - and the timing is perfect! I think I'd rather see Warren starting ahead of Cessa & maybe even Severino - the only 2 other RHers that can throw 150 innings in 2017.

If Girardi & Rothschild look at it from the "experience" angle, I would think they'd agree that the club is better off with Warren in the rotation and Cessa & Severino in the bullpen.

I'm still hoping that Montgomery vs. Enns will determine the #5 spot.

[False1]

Girardi: "Adam, we want you to come to ST prepared to start"
Warren (under his breath): "Been there, done that"

Is it finally time to see if Warren can hold down a starting role for more than half a season?
He threw about 130 innings in 2015 but was down to about 70 IP last year, so it might be hard to expect him to carry a starter's workload. Then again this may be Warren's last opportunity - and the timing is perfect! I think I'd rather see Warren starting ahead of Cessa & maybe even Severino - the only 2 other RHers that can throw 150 innings in 2017.

If Girardi & Rothschild look at it from the "experience" angle, I would think they'd agree that the club is better off with Warren in the rotation and Cessa & Severino in the bullpen.

I'm still hoping that Montgomery vs. Enns will determine the #5 spot.

Way too soon to give up on Severino as a starter. And this goes back to what I hope doesn't happen... that guys with higher ceilings and more years of team control get marginalized by others who can possibly deliver in aggregate a few more W's this particular season.

[mbn007]

Girardi: "Adam, we want you to come to ST prepared to start"
Warren (under his breath): "Been there, done that"

Is it finally time to see if Warren can hold down a starting role for more than half a season?
He threw about 130 innings in 2015 but was down to about 70 IP last year, so it might be hard to expect him to carry a starter's workload. Then again this may be Warren's last opportunity - and the timing is perfect! I think I'd rather see Warren starting ahead of Cessa & maybe even Severino - the only 2 other RHers that can throw 150 innings in 2017.

If Girardi & Rothschild look at it from the "experience" angle, I would think they'd agree that the club is better off with Warren in the rotation and Cessa & Severino in the bullpen.

I'm still hoping that Montgomery vs. Enns will determine the #5 spot.

Green threw over 140 innings last year. he is good to go for ~170 this year - Verducci rule or not.


Enns threw 135, while Montgomery threw 139. Both should be able to approach 170 this year.

BTW - I agree with False1 regarding Severino. He has had less development time in the Minors, innings-wise, then I realized. So it is way to early to give up on him. He should remain a starter in 2017, even if he needs to stay in Scranton the whole season. And, Cessa has real good control. If his command improves, and you will know that has happened when hi HR/9 starts dropping, he seems like a solid candidate for the rotation. He throws 4 pitches, and seems to use them all. Read this 09/07/16 post at RAB, for some more information.

http://riveraveblues.com/?s=cessa

Also, read this 11/02/16 post at RAB. This is the year-end wrap.

http://riveraveblues.com/?s=young+starters

[Bill Marsh]

Girardi: "Adam, we want you to come to ST prepared to start"
Warren (under his breath): "Been there, done that"

Is it finally time to see if Warren can hold down a starting role for more than half a season?
He threw about 130 innings in 2015 but was down to about 70 IP last year, so it might be hard to expect him to carry a starter's workload. Then again this may be Warren's last opportunity - and the timing is perfect! I think I'd rather see Warren starting ahead of Cessa & maybe even Severino - the only 2 other RHers that can throw 150 innings in 2017.

If Girardi & Rothschild look at it from the "experience" angle, I would think they'd agree that the club is better off with Warren in the rotation and Cessa & Severino in the bullpen.

I'm still hoping that Montgomery vs. Enns will determine the #5 spot.

I don't think the jump in innings is so much a problem for pitchers of Warren's age.

[Bill Marsh]

Way too soon to give up on Severino as a starter. And this goes back to what I hope doesn't happen... that guys with higher ceilings and more years of team control get marginalized by others who can possibly deliver in aggregate a few more W's this particular season.

Excellent point. They should go with the guys who have the highest ceiling. Having said that, I prefer to see Severino start the season in Scranton. He's clearly still at a developmental stage.

[False1]

Excellent point. They should go with the guys who have the highest ceiling. Having said that, I prefer to see Severino start the season in Scranton. He's clearly still at a developmental stage.

I'd be fine with that if it was a strategic long term decision, say to work on his changeup (although he didn't last time he went down). But if it's to allow some marginal arm they think can eek out another W or two this season - not a fan.

[Bill Marsh]

I'd be fine with that if it was a strategic long term decision, say to work on his changeup (although he didn't last time he went down). But if it's to allow some marginal arm they think can eek out another W or two this season - not a fan.

Yes, it would absolutely only make sense if it is for him to work on a 3rd pitch to improve his chances for success when he comes back to the major leagues.

[sjb23]

I'm guessing that no one wants to see Warren in the rotation? I just remember all the posters who thought it was a bad move to take Warren out of the rotation back in 2015.

[longtimeyankeefan]

I'm guessing that no one wants to see Warren in the rotation? I just remember all the posters who thought it was a bad move to take Warren out of the rotation back in 2015.

I think he should get a chance in ST - I think his problem is similar to Ramiro Mendoza's problem. He is just too damn versatile.

To be honest, I would rather Warren in the starting rotation and Severino in the bullpen. While I am not "giving up" on Seve as a starter, my gut is that his mentality is better suited to the pen in a late inning role. I could actually see him replacing Betances at some point, he looks that good in that role.

[Yankyfan]

Excellent point. They should go with the guys who have the highest ceiling. Having said that, I prefer to see Severino start the season in Scranton. He's clearly still at a developmental stage.

I so agree Billy.So agree.

[DaBliz]

Spring training doesn't even start for a few months so Severino has plenty of time to work on the changeup. I like the odds that he'll be a competent #4 this upcoming season with the potential to be one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league. With that said, an awful spring could definitely revise my stance. I would just treat it like it is his spot to lose over guys like Green, Cessa, Mitchell, etc.

[Bill Marsh]

Spring training doesn't even start for a few months so Severino has plenty of time to work on the changeup. I like the odds that he'll be a competent #4 this upcoming season with the potential to be one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league. With that said, an awful spring could definitely revise my stance. I would just treat it like it is his spot to lose over guys like Green, Cessa, Mitchell, etc.

I hope you're right. I'd feel better about it if he were working on it I need competition against real batters. But AFAIK he's not playing winter ball.

[longtimeyankeefan]

Spring training doesn't even start for a few months so Severino has plenty of time to work on the changeup. I like the odds that he'll be a competent #4 this upcoming season with the potential to be one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league. With that said, an awful spring could definitely revise my stance. I would just treat it like it is his spot to lose over guys like Green, Cessa, Mitchell, etc.

Pitchers & Catchers report in Feb 13, which is now 43 days away - that's not a few months.

And, while a pitcher can work on a pitch in the off-season, he really needs to face competitive live hitters before any results can be determined.

[DaBliz]

Pitchers & Catchers report in Feb 13, which is now 43 days away - that's not a few months.

And, while a pitcher can work on a pitch in the off-season, he really needs to face competitive live hitters before any results can be determined.

I meant that he has months before the regular season starts to work on the change, even throughout ST. I agree he needs to face live competition before a full assessment can be made. I'm just saying that the #4 slot in the rotation is his to lose right now. I think he's clearly ahead of Green, Cessa, Warren, Mitchell, and Enns, who I expect to battle for that last spot. Unless we sign Ross/Hammel, which I'm not expecting at this point.

Once Sheffield, Kaprelian, Acevedo, and Adams are knocking on the door--possibly as soon as the end of this season, then Severino's position becomes threatened. Until then, I think it is best to continue getting him major league innings.

[hellonewman]

I'm guessing that no one wants to see Warren in the rotation? I just remember all the posters who thought it was a bad move to take Warren out of the rotation back in 2015.

I was one of them but as I explained at the time, my reasoning was somewhat counterintuitive: I wanted him kept in the rotation not because I thought he was on the threshold of a long successful career as a starter but because, for reasons even sabermetricians can't readily explain, baseball history is loaded with so-so talents who just put it together for a year or so.

Luck? Maybe. Or maybe by the microscopic degrees that separate MLB success from failure their bodies just respond on a high level for a year or so, then fail to keep up that level in the way that better physical talents do. No sabermetricians that I know of are experts in kinesiology so I'll leave that possibility open. To put it in simplest terms, ride the hot hand, or as Crash Davis would say, "Never f**k with a winning streak."

Warren was a "hot hand" in 2015, and the Yankees aborted his run before he lost effectiveness. It may have ended in his next start. It may have lasted all season. But they never bothered to find out. IIRC because Girardi was more "comfortable" with Warren in the pen. *sigh*

My suspicion is that his time is past. I don't have an objection to letting him compete in ST for a rotation spot (I'd let Guidry compete for a rotation spot even today) but my expectations aren't much.

[sjb23]

I was one of them but as I explained at the time, my reasoning was somewhat counterintuitive...Warren was a "hot hand" in 2015, and the Yankees aborted his run before he lost effectiveness...My suspicion is that his time is past. I don't have an objection to letting him compete in ST for a rotation spot (I'd let Guidry compete for a rotation spot even today) but my expectations aren't much.

Thanks for the response. I'm really trying to look at all angles re: the 2017 rotation. I think maybe Warren can navigate through the opposition's lineup more than twice just based on experience & confidence, whereas the younger guys may only be "twice-around-the-lineup" starters, which will really tax the bullpen.

[primetime714]

Opening day rotation is kind of meaningless if you ask me. Everyone that is good enough will get a shot at some point in the season and probably a few that are on the fringe but are needed out of necessity.

Warren coming to camp as a starter is no brainer. We all expect him to end up in the bullpen, but if he's needed in the rotation or pitches like he did a few years ago as a starter by all means. It does no harm giving him a shot to compete for a starting spot.

As for young guys like Severino in particular you see how they look in camp and make the best decision for their future. I like that the Yankees have already said he's either a Yankee starter or in AAA and if he goes to AAA its not just to win a couple more games its for him to fix what is preventing him from being a major league starter (changeup, command, etc.).

[sjb23]

Opening day rotation is kind of meaningless if you ask me. Everyone that is good enough will get a shot at some point in the season and probably a few that are on the fringe but are needed out of necessity.

Warren coming to camp as a starter is no brainer. We all expect him to end up in the bullpen, but if he's needed in the rotation or pitches like he did a few years ago as a starter by all means. It does no harm giving him a shot to compete for a starting spot.

As for young guys like Severino in particular you see how they look in camp and make the best decision for their future. I like that the Yankees have already said he's either a Yankee starter or in AAA and if he goes to AAA its not just to win a couple more games its for him to fix what is preventing him from being a major league starter (changeup, command, etc.).

good post I agree with everything you said.

[bucky]

Spring training doesn't even start for a few months so Severino has plenty of time to work on the changeup. I like the odds that he'll be a competent #4 this upcoming season with the potential to be one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league. With that said, an awful spring could definitely revise my stance. I would just treat it like it is his spot to lose over guys like Green, Cessa, Mitchell, etc.

Boy I hope so. I loved the kid in 2015. Every now and then I search to see if Severino is pitching and working on his changeup in DR. I truly believe if he develops this pitch with confidence it will be 3 pitches (FB is great with slider) so I hope somebody like Coney is maybe working with him. My biggest thorn is I just don't have confidence in Rothschild helping the kid. Big opportunity this ST (we have 8 listed in our depth chart not including prospects and invitees)

[Gusto]

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[Bill Marsh]

I meant that he has months before the regular season starts to work on the change, even throughout ST. I agree he needs to face live competition before a full assessment can be made. I'm just saying that the #4 slot in the rotation mis his to lose right now. I think he's clearly ahead of Green, Cessa, Warren, Mitchell, and Enns, who I expect to battle for that last spot. Unless we sign Ross/Hammel, which I'm not expecting at this point.

Once Sheffield, Kaprelian, Acevedo, and Adams are knocking on the door--possibly as soon as the end of this season, then Severino's position becomes threatened. Until then, I think it is best to continue getting him major league innings.

It's interesting how we can all look at the same thing and see it differently. To me, Severino was completely lost last year and gave the team no reason to bring him back this season. Unless he looks like a completely different pitcher in ST, I'd have him start the season in Scranton to fix what's missing. I haven't given up on him at all, but I don't see how it helps the kid or the team to throw him to the wolves again. Without McCann's experience calling the game, I think it's going to be even harder for him this year.

[DaBliz]

It's interesting how we can all look at the same thing and see it differently. To me, Severino was completely lost last you and gave the team no reason to bring him back this season. Unless he looks like a completely different pitcher in ST, I'd have him start the season in Scranton to fix what's missing. I haven't given up on him at air, but I don't see how it helps the kid or the team to throw him to the wolves again. Without McCann's experience calling the game, I think it's going to be even harder for him this year.

His peripherals in all major numbers I look at (strikeouts, walks, etc.) were all fine. Even with some minor improvement and better luck, I think Severino has pretty good odds to be at least a #4. Missing the change is a problem that is very clear, but I think it's as much reluctance to throw it as it is the pitch being weak.

I'm very bullish on Severino being a more effective starter. Somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 seasons, 4ish FIP and ERA. I also wouldn't be shocked to see a huge jump, either. The kid has the talent and desire to be great. He just needs some guidance and experience.

[Bill Marsh]

His peripherals in all major numbers I look at (strikeouts, walks, etc.) were all fine. Even with some minor improvement and better luck, I think Severino has pretty good odds to be at least a #4. Missing the change is a problem that is very clear, but I think it's as much reluctance to throw it as it is the pitch being weak.

I'm very bullish on Severino being a more effective starter. Somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 seasons, 4ish FIP and ERA. I also wouldn't be shocked to see a huge jump, either. The kid has the talent and desire to be great. He just needs some guidance and experience.

HR/9 = 1.4
BB/9 = 3.2
H/ 9 = 9.9
FIP = 4.48

All were too high. There may be some luck involved with hits dropping in. But his problem was not just that he was giving up hits, it's that he was getting hit hard.

SLG Against = .472
Doubles = 21 in 71 innings

And he was getting hit early, failing to make it past the 4th inning in 5 of his 11 starts.