Sanchez-Holliday-Bird-Judge = New Middle of Lineup?

[longtimeyankeefan]

Something we have in common. So tell me, does trading for Quintana & Robertson make the Yankees 2017 AL East contenders?

I think adding Quintana & Robertson to this pitching staff would certainly improve their chances, but it does not, IMO, make them the prohibitive favorites.

IMO, even adding the pitching, they still need to address the fact that their returning position players have an average OPS+ of around 92. Yes, the potential of Bird and Judge is very appealing, but is it enough? Even assuming Sanchez can keep his OPS+ in the 130 range, he is essentially only replacing Beltran in this lineup. In other words, the offense is still offensive.

Personally, I would rather keep the prospects than add Q & R - if we could get Quintana, given his four years of control, for something like Mateo +, I am okay with the move, but my fear is that the price will be three high position prospects (the WS got mostly pitching prospects in their Sales & Eaton deals, so now they need position players) and I am not willing to move the likes of Frazier or Rutherford.

And, I am certainly not willing to take on the entire salary of Robertson if we are giving any significant prospects for him - with his nine seasons, his WAR is only 12.5, and that number is significantly impacted by his 2011 4.0 WAR season. Take that season away and he is basically a 1 WAR player making $25M over the next two seasons.

[flymick24]

gardner
headley
sanchez
holliday
bird
judge
didi
castro
ellsbury

[oneill96]

I think adding Quintana & Robertson to this pitching staff would certainly improve their chances, but it does not, IMO, make them the prohibitive favorites.

IMO, even adding the pitching, they still need to address the fact that their returning position players have an average OPS+ of around 92. Yes, the potential of Bird and Judge is very appealing, but is it enough? Even assuming Sanchez can keep his OPS+ in the 130 range, he is essentially only replacing Beltran in this lineup. In other words, the offense is still offensive.

Personally, I would rather keep the prospects than add Q & R - if we could get Quintana, given his four years of control, for something like Mateo +, I am okay with the move, but my fear is that the price will be three high position prospects (the WS got mostly pitching prospects in their Sales & Eaton deals, so now they need position players) and I am not willing to move the likes of Frazier or Rutherford.

And, I am certainly not willing to take on the entire salary of Robertson if we are giving any significant prospects for him - with his nine seasons, his WAR is only 12.5, and that number is significantly impacted by his 2011 4.0 WAR season. Take that season away and he is basically a 1 WAR player making $25M over the next two seasons.

Bingo. I would like to see more of our top prospects flesh out in the upper levels of the majors before we trade for proven ML players. Build the core of the team up. See how Judge, Bird, Kaep, Torres, et all, pan out before we start to think competitively. We have amassed a number of high ceiling pitching prospects, so let them grade out. It also makes no sense trading Rutherford till he has a fulll year at A ball under his belt. I think this is in line with Cashman's current thinking (other than finding the best motel that rents by the hour.)

[HelloNewman]

I'm not really getting my hopes up with Holliday for 2017. He's 37, coming off the worst year of his career, and hasn't been healthy enough to stay in the lineup full time either of the past 2 seasons.

Agreed. Only thing I like about that signing is, it's one year. Returning to the "dedicated DH" concept, so soon after they finally unshackled themselves from A-Rod and while the rebuild still has a ways to go, seems very cart-before-horse. A dedicated DH is something you do once you've got the young contender mostly in place and a solid veteran bat can be the difference-maker. Otherwise you're just taking ABs from younger players you need to be looking at.

Absolutely. Part of me hopes they give the 1B job to Austin out of spring training and let Bird start in AAA. Take some pressure off of him and let him just get comfortable and not worry about numbers to start the year.

If Austin struggles and/or Bird looks like he's fully back, then bring him up and let him take the role full time.

That's actually a hell of an idea. I'm not looking at 2017 as a championship-contending year (I know some are) so let Bird work back at a pressure-free pace, plus you get a more extended look-see at Austin who may or may not be legit. Only way to know is to play him. If Bird surprisingly beasts out of the gate you bring him up and have to find more creative ways to get your look at Austin (LF/RF job shares, little bit of DH time etc.)

[oneill96]

Agreed. Only thing I like about that signing is, it's one year. Returning to the "dedicated DH" concept, so soon after they finally unshackled themselves from A-Rod and while the rebuild still has a ways to go, seems very cart-before-horse.

That's actually a hell of an idea. I'm not looking at 2017 as a championship-contending year (I know some are) so let Bird work back at a pressure-free pace, plus you get a more extended look-see at Austin who may or may not be legit. Only way to know is to play him. If Bird surprisingly beasts out of the gate you bring him up and have to find more creative ways to get your look at Austin (LF/RF job shares, little bit of DH time etc.)

Could Austin hit enough to stay at first..... oh wait a minute. We had Texiera at first base last year, what am I saying?!

[sjb23]

I think adding Quintana & Robertson to this pitching staff would certainly improve their chances, but it does not, IMO, make them the prohibitive favorites.

I agree, they wouldn't suddenly become favorites - I asked if you thought they'd be divisional contenders. I think they could be. Getting Quintana & Robertson without giving up our very best prospects but yet offering a lot of talent, youth, and cost-control should be a goal at this point in the offseason.

[Bill Marsh]

I agree, they wouldn't suddenly become favorites - I asked if you thought they'd be divisional contenders. I think they could be. Getting Quintana & Robertson without giving up our very best prospects but yet offering a lot of talent, youth, and cost-control should be a goal at this point in the offseason.

Maybe they could if the youngsters in the lineup have major league success right away.

I think the better question to ask is whether trading prospects should be part of the Yankees rebuilding strategy now that they've stockpiled them. At some point it will be. Should that point be now? So far the additions of Chapman and Holliday have only cost them money.

[False1]

I agree, they wouldn't suddenly become favorites - I asked if you thought they'd be divisional contenders. I think they could be. Getting Quintana & Robertson without giving up our very best prospects but yet offering a lot of talent, youth, and cost-control should be a goal at this point in the offseason.

I doubt your proposed deal gets those guys (someone can beat that offer), but let's assume it gets done. You'd also have to assume that rookies perform at a rather high level right out of the gate. And then sure, maybe the AL East is in reach.

Personally, I don't get real excited about the ALDS. I want a team with a chance at making a sustained run at WS for a decent sized window. I'd much rather watch the progress of these guys in mL and see which ones can help solidify a strong young core to build around than look forward to a shot at a few extra October games this season that are highly unlikely to result in the ultimate goal.

[TrueYankee01]

I think ultimately that's what the middle of the order will look like. There are caveats...

Bird coming off major shoulder surgery
Sophomore slumping for Sanchez
Judge does not overcome his strikeout issue

I think Sanchez is most likely to succeed of these 3. I think Holliday will be very good for us. Let's hope, so we can trade him come July.

[sjb23]

Maybe they could if the youngsters in the lineup have major league success right away. I think the better question to ask is whether trading prospects should be part of the Yankees rebuilding strategy now that they've stockpiled them.

You'd also have to assume that rookies perform at a rather high level right out of the gate. And then sure, maybe the AL East is in reach.

Personally, I don't get real excited about the ALDS. I want a team with a chance at making a sustained run at WS for a decent sized window. I'd much rather watch the progress of these guys in mL and see which ones can help solidify a strong young core to build around than look forward to a shot at a few extra October games this season that are highly unlikely to result in the ultimate goal.

The best question is - Can the Yanks get Quintana & create a stronger bullpen in the same move without giving up their elite prospects, but instead using their other strengths (a stockpiled farm system & money)? IMO it's smart to aggressively explore this possibility since it benefits the club now and in the near future. Imagine if the young hitters do indeed step up and contribute to a better-scoring offense, but the pitching staff stays the same or becomes even more unstable. There will be a lot of 2nd guessing.

As far as postseason play goes, there are only 2 outcomes I'd like to avoid:
a) not contending
b) only qualifying for a 1-game wildcard showdown.

Winning the division gives the team slightly better odds of making it to the WS. If my team loses along the way, oh well - better than not even having a chance.

[False1]

The best question is - Can the Yanks get Quintana & create a stronger bullpen in the same move without giving up their elite prospects, but instead using their other strengths (a stockpiled farm system & money)? IMO it's smart to aggressively explore this possibility since it benefits the club now and in the near future. Imagine if the young hitters do indeed step up and contribute to a better-scoring offense, but the pitching staff stays the same or becomes even more unstable. There will be a lot of 2nd guessing.

As far as postseason play goes, there are only 2 outcomes I'd like to avoid:
a) not contending
b) only qualifying for a 1-game wildcard showdown.

Winning the division gives the team slightly better odds of making it to the WS. If my team loses along the way, oh well - better than not even having a chance.

That's your take on the best question.

My take on the best question is... "How can the Yankees build a concentration of young, top talent, get under the luxury tax albatross and prep for a bumper FA class after '18 in an effort to create a sustainable WS threat for years?"

Part of me doesn't want the Yankees contending this year. I want to trade guys like Pineda, Tanaka and Gardner to contenders at the deadline or before. Let the kids sort things out. That to me will be much more immediately entertaining than buying high at an innoprtune time on guys like Quintana and Robertson. And then also hearing the "winning" mantra when the team is in reach of the playoffs and buying high again at the deadline for guys that don't meet the intermediate strategic view. We've had that playlist on repeat tooo long.

EDIT: Regarding not giving up elite prospects...Frazier is an elite prospect, as was Mateo prior to his disastrous second half.

[longtimeyankeefan]

I agree, they wouldn't suddenly become favorites - I asked if you thought they'd be divisional contenders. I think they could be.

Heck, I think they can be contenders right now without these two - but all the stars have to align. Even adding these two options do not, IMO, make them that much greater a contender (given what Boston has done), but does help.

I think they could be. Getting Quintana & Robertson without giving up our very best prospects but yet offering a lot of talent, youth, and cost-control should be a goal at this point in the offseason.

I agree with you, but I don't think we would get the two of them without some pain. Mateo + Kap and other prospects is not going to get it done. My impression is that Hahn won't even start talking until at least one name of the big three (Torres, Frazier or Rutherford) is put on the table.

Heck, they got Moncada & Kopech, plus two other prospects for three years of Sale - yes, he is a better pitcher than Quintana, but Q comes with another year of control, so wouldn't you expect a similar haul for him? IMO, Mateo + Kap + two others is not going to cause Hahn to move Quintana to the pinstripes.

[sjb23]

My take on the best question is... "How can the Yankees build a concentration of young, top talent, get under the luxury tax albatross and prep for a bumper FA class after '18 in an effort to create a sustainable WS threat for years?"

This is a great question, up until that last part. It sounds like you think "a sustainable WS threat for years" is something that can be created. IMO there are too many intangibles to think past a season or two. Meanwhile, the organization might be overlooking present opportunities that don't come along very often.

Regarding not giving up elite prospects...Frazier is an elite prospect, as was Mateo prior to his disastrous second half.

Two things about this: I've never entertained giving up Frazier, Torres, or Kaprielian. Secondly, the thinking that Mateo is not as elite as expected just proves that top talent guarantees nothing until it produces success for a prolonged period of time.

[False1]

This is a great question, up until that last part. It sounds like you think "a sustainable WS threat for years" is something that can be created. IMO there are too many intangibles to think past a season or two. Meanwhile, the organization might be overlooking present opportunities that don't come along very often.

We've seen it created in the not too distant past with this team. We are likely seeing it with the Cubs now, and the Indians to a lesser degree as well. Houston came close, although their window is still open. It's doable, although certainly no guarantees and a lot has to break right. Without a crystal ball, no way to predict if adding a Quintana is the better immediate or long term move than keeping guys like Kap and Frazier around. But I think the right strategy here is patience. And purely in terms of my own personal entertainment value, I'd much rather see Montgomery or Enns try to crack a ML rotation, or see Severino take steps forward, or even Kaprelian crack the rotation at some point this year then watch the excitement of Quintana and Tanaka pitching this team a game short of the wildcard.

Two things about this: I've never entertained giving up Frazier, Torres, or Kaprielian. Secondly, the thinking that Mateo is not as elite as expected just proves that top talent guarantees nothing until it produces success for a prolonged period of time.

Well, we've come full circle. As I stated in my first response on this topic, I don't think what you're proposing gets it done. So if those guys are off limits, this whole convo is moot. The White Sox ain't gonna give us this "unique opportunity" for the likes of Refs, Hicks and Fowler. Sorry.

[sjb23]

The White Sox ain't gonna give us this "unique opportunity" for the likes of Refs, Hicks and Fowler. Sorry.

I believe Severino, Mateo and Abreu are very attractive prospects with pretty high ceilings. Refsnyder Hicks & Fowler are secondary pieces & could all be everyday players in 2018. That's a strong offer IMO.

[ojo]

I believe Severino, Mateo and Abreu are very attractive prospects with pretty high ceilings. Refsnyder Hicks & Fowler are secondary pieces & could all be everyday players in 2018. That's a strong offer IMO.

I think that offer gets bested by a few times, multiple times over.

[Ny27xwschamps]

We dont need Robertson.. We can make a trade for just Quintana, the person we actually DO need.

[Rob035]

I think that offer gets bested by a few times, multiple times over.

It probably does get bested and I'm fine with that. It's worth kicking the tires but when push comes to shove, the Sox are going to want more than what we'll offer.

[melon]

I think that offer gets bested by a few times, multiple times over.

Then Cashman can play hardball and kick in Cito, Bleier, and Shreve to make it an irresistible ten player offer!

[Ken711]

It probably does get bested and I'm fine with that. It's worth kicking the tires but when push comes to shove, the Sox are going to want more than what we'll offer.

So am I. Let some other team overpay.

[DJ27]

We dont need Robertson.. We can make a trade for just Quintana, the person we actually DO need.

Unless adding D-Rob and his contract doesn't cost somebody we want to keep...........

[apalradio]

The only real purpose to acquiring D-Rob in a deal for Q is to give them the flexibility to deal Betances for a few more elite prospects. Wouldn't be the worst strategy.

[freebubba]

Then Cashman can play hardball and kick in Cito, Bleier, and Shreve to make it an irresistible ten player offer!

This is the equivalent of asking the White Sox to go shopping at WalMart.

[sjb23]

Question: If Judge gets to play every day where will him striking out hurt the most, in the #6 spot in the lineup or further down, like 9th spot?

Personally I think Headley, Gregorius, & Castro filling up the bottom of the order makes it more circular.

Someone suggested Headley batting 2nd and dropping Ellsbury down - I can also see this as a good option, although I doubt Girardi would consider it.

[longtimeyankeefan]

Question: If Judge gets to play every day where will him striking out hurt the most, in the #6 spot in the lineup or further down, like 9th spot?

Personally I think Headley, Gregorius, & Castro filling up the bottom of the order makes it more circular.

Someone suggested Headley batting 2nd and dropping Ellsbury down - I can also see this as a good option, although I doubt Girardi would consider it.

IMO, it depends on what else happens in his ABs - if he has a high K rate, but generates power and a reasonable average (say .250), I think the 6 spot makes sense. But, if he is high K with a low 200 average and not enough power, then I send him down to AAA to learn to control that swing away mentality. Unfortunately, he will never be a low K rate batter.

My gut is that he will make adjustments this season in the same way as he has at every other level. He has always struggled when first arriving, then made adjustments. I hope they have someone in ST working closely with him on this issue.