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  1. #51
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    I'm not sure why you're focusing only on his high walk rate. He paired that with a ridiculously low hit rate. The result was a WHIP of 1.12. I don't see that as a problem.

    I agree that Sheffield's success at a young age is very promising. But what does that have to do with Enns? He didn't just succeed at A+ as a 24-year-old. He was off the charts.
    The issue with the high walk rates are that Major League hitters are more likely to wait him out and force him to throw strikes. Maybe he can get away with being off the plate in the Minors. But in the Majors, his control will have to improve.

  2. #52

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    The issue with the high walk rates are that Major League hitters are more likely to wait him out and force him to throw strikes. Maybe he can get away with being off the plate in the Minors. But in the Majors, his control will have to improve.
    Until I've seen him pitch, I don't even know that he has a control problem. Tom Glavine also had a high walk rate, but it wasn't because he had control issues. He had superb control, but he worked the corners relentlessly. He was willing to give up the occasional walk when he missed because he gained so much more by keeping the ball on the outside of the playe. If Enns is anything like Flacine, I'd welcome him with open arms.

    It's the power pitcher's with high walk rates who run into problems, but AFAIK, Enns is not a power pitcher. He seems like more of a finesse pitcher.

  3. #53
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Enns BB/9 is definitely a bit high, but certainly not high enough to suggest he has no upside.

  4. #54
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Until I've seen him pitch, I don't even know that he has a control problem. Tom Glavine also had a high walk rate, but it wasn't because he had control issues. He had superb control, but he worked the corners relentlessly. He was willing to give up the occasional walk when he missed because he gained so much more by keeping the ball on the outside of the playe. If Enns is anything like Flacine, I'd welcome him with open arms.

    It's the power pitcher's with high walk rates who run into problems, but AFAIK, Enns is not a power pitcher. He seems like more of a finesse pitcher.
    The 2-3 times I have seen Enns, he is missing due to location issues. He is not trying to paint the corners and expand the k zone like Glavine and Livian Hernandez were famous for doing.

  5. #55
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Enns BB/9 is definitely a bit high, but certainly not high enough to suggest he has no upside.

    Agree with this ^^ . However, he does need to tighten his location a bit to succeed at the Major league level.

  6. #56

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    The 2-3 times I have seen Enns, he is missing due to location issues. He is not trying to paint the corners and expand the k zone like Glavine and Livian Hernandez were famous for doing.
    His 6H/9 is outrageously low. How is he doing that?

  7. #57
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    His 6H/9 is outrageously low. How is he doing that?
    Could be (at least partially) due to the fact that many minor league hitters expand the zone, which is why most never make it to the show.

  8. #58
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    His 6H/9 is outrageously low. How is he doing that?
    I don't know, but it appears to be contagious.

    For MiLB pitchers with at least 95 IP in 2016, we have #1,3,4,5 ranked pitchers in WHIP and #1,3,4,8 in H/9.

    Nestor Cortes- .802 WHIP, 5.2 H/9
    Chance Adams- .903 WHIP, 5.4 H/9
    James Reeves- .914 WHIP, 5.5 H/9
    Yelfey Ramirez- .917 WHIP, 5.9 H/9

    God, I love this SP depth we've built.

  9. #59

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    The 2-3 times I have seen Enns, he is missing due to location issues. He is not trying to paint the corners and expand the k zone like Glavine and Livian Hernandez were famous for doing.
    Here's a scouting report with a different take, saying that "nibbling around the plate" is how they explain his high walk rate:

    http://www.yanksgoyard.com/2016/08/0...t-recognition/

  10. #60

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    Could be (at least partially) due to the fact that many minor league hitters expand the zone, which is why most never make it to the show.
    But the question remains why other talented minor league pitchers aren't able to equal Enns' level of run prevention against those same flawed minor league hitters.

  11. #61

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Just guessing...

    Weak contact could lead to a low H/9, especially if players are swinging at balls that aren't strikes.

    If he's getting weak contact on balls out of the zone, but hitters are able to do more with pitches in the zone, it could explain his low H/9 and his tendency to stay away from the plate (leading to some walks).

    If major leaguers can lay off the pitches thrown for balls that would induce weak contact if they swung, it doesn't bode well for him. The more hittable strikes will get crushed. But if he's deceptive enough to also fool major leaguers into swinging at balls they can't hit well, maybe his minor league numbers hold up better.

    Just one possibility. Unless they have zone data for minors, probably won't know until he faces big league pitching. (edit: faces big league HITTING)
    Last edited by jcarey; 01-04-17 at 02:42 PM.


  12. #62
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    Could be (at least partially) due to the fact that many minor league hitters expand the zone, which is why most never make it to the show.
    Which is why a high walk rate in the Minors is troubling, to say the least.

  13. #63
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    Just guessing...

    Weak contact could lead to a low H/9, especially if players are swinging at balls that aren't strikes.

    If he's getting weak contact on balls out of the zone, but hitters are able to do more with pitches in the zone, it could explain his low H/9 and his tendency to stay away from the plate (leading to some walks).

    If major leaguers can lay off the pitches thrown for balls that would induce weak contact if they swung, it doesn't bode well for him. The more hittable strikes will get crushed. But if he's deceptive enough to also fool major leaguers into swinging at balls they can't hit well, maybe his minor league numbers hold up better.

    Just one possibility. Unless they have zone data for minors, probably won't know until he faces big league pitching.
    Agree

  14. #64

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    Which is why a high walk rate in the Minors is troubling, to say the least.
    Why are other minor league pitchers then not having the same success that Enns is?

  15. #65
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    Enns BB/9 is definitely a bit high, but certainly not high enough to suggest he has no upside.
    I'm not suggesting that he has no upside. He was added to the 40 man roster for a reason. I'm just saying that he has a lower ceiling compared to some of the other options for 5th starter this year. He's turning 26 at the beginning of next season. The odds of him producing as anything higher than a #4 are limited.

    Maybe, as some have suggested, he's getting results in a manner that make strikeouts and walks less important. However, the K/9 and BB/9 rate he put up in AAA would be among the worst ratios in the majors...and that's without adjusting for the huge leap in competition. I'm not saying that it's definitive proof that he'll fail (and I really hope he does not fail). I'm just saying that a full analysis requires looking at all of the statistics and he has a few huge red flags that make it difficult for me to label him as anything more than organizational depth at this point.

  16. #66
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Why are other minor league pitchers then not having the same success that Enns is?
    I understand you are a big fan of Enns. We all hope he succeeds, as that means another solid prospect for the Yankees, and will help their future.


    However, all I'm pointing out, as are others here, is that he walks too many batters, and it is not a case of "just missing" of the corners, or trying to expand the zone. He seems to have some control issues. He can succeed against Minor League hitters - where the overwhelming majority of them will never sniff the Majors, except for maybe a brief call-up. But this troubling issue does not bode well against the average Major league hitter who is more selective, and has a better awareness of the zone.


    Can Enns have a solid career in NY or elsewhere? Of course. But his is a potential problem that will hurt his chances of attaining that successful career.

  17. #67
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    However, all I'm pointing out, as are others here, is that he walks too many batters, and it is not a case of "just missing" of the corners, or trying to expand the zone. He seems to have some control issues. He can succeed against Minor League hitters - where the overwhelming majority of them will never sniff the Majors, except for maybe a brief call-up. But this troubling issue does not bode well against the average Major league hitter who is more selective, and has a better awareness of the zone.
    I don't buy this logic. MLB hitters are better than MiLB hitters in every aspect, not just zone control You can apply this to any type of pitcher.

    A power pitcher blows MiLB hitters away, but these hitters do not have the bat speed of MLB hitters.

    A guy with a good secondary pitches is able to fool MiLB hitters, but these hitters do not have the pitch recognition of MLB hitters.

    Enns has dominated unlike many pitchers in the minors have. And like every pitcher, he will have to continue to improve to be effective at higher levels. But his case isn't something entirely unique.

  18. #68
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob035 View Post
    I don't buy this logic. MLB hitters are better than MiLB hitters in every aspect, not just zone control You can apply this to any type of pitcher.

    A power pitcher blows MiLB hitters away, but these hitters do not have the bat speed of MLB hitters.

    A guy with a good secondary pitches is able to fool MiLB hitters, but these hitters do not have the pitch recognition of MLB hitters.

    Enns has dominated unlike many pitchers in the minors have. And like every pitcher, he will have to continue to improve to be effective at higher levels. But his case isn't something entirely unique.

    Actually, his situation is quite unique. I doubt there are more than a handful of Minor League pitchers who have thrown as many innings as he has, who has his stats. So the fact he is as dominant as he is in the Minors, in spite of control issues, is in of itself unique.


    However, he still needs to fix those control issues by the time he gets to the majors, or else he will not be successful. He does not have the 95 MPH moving (as in non-straight) fastball to get him out of tough spots.


    Look. He can have some success in the Majors, but it will be fleeting, unless he fixes his control issues. He's not Tom Glavine, who purposely threw an inch off the corner, and if he got the call, the next pitch was 2 inches off the corner. Enns can't "pinpoint" control like that.

  19. #69
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    Actually, his situation is quite unique. I doubt there are more than a handful of Minor League pitchers who have thrown as many innings as he has, who has his stats. So the fact he is as dominant as he is in the Minors, in spite of control issues, is in of itself unique.


    However, he still needs to fix those control issues by the time he gets to the majors, or else he will not be successful. He does not have the 95 MPH moving (as in non-straight) fastball to get him out of tough spots.


    Look. He can have some success in the Majors, but it will be fleeting, unless he fixes his control issues. He's not Tom Glavine, who purposely threw an inch off the corner, and if he got the call, the next pitch was 2 inches off the corner. Enns can't "pinpoint" control like that.
    He's dominated every level while posting a K/9 over 9. His walks are certainly higher than you'd like, and it's hard to get a definitive answer on his command, but there are indeed reports that indicate he is the type of pitcher who lives on the edges.

    MLB Pipeline
    Enns hides the ball well with his delivery and has a quick arm, so his pitches jump on hitters quicker than expected. Though he commands his fastball well, he does surrender walks as the result of nibbling around the plate because he has a low margin for error.

  20. #70

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    I'm not suggesting that he has no upside. He was added to the 40 man roster for a reason. I'm just saying that he has a lower ceiling compared to some of the other options for 5th starter this year. He's turning 26 at the beginning of next season. The odds of him producing as anything higher than a #4 are limited.
    Enns' age is not a point of legitimate criticism to use as a basis for assessing his major league potential. There are 2 reasons that explain why he is 25 and has just reached AAA this past season:

    1. He had a college career before being drafted into the Yankees' farm system in 2012. Like many college players, that gave him a late start.
    2. He had. Tommy John surgery in 2014, temporarily derailing his careee.

    Under the circumstances, his progression has been quite normal. Given that he'll be 26 this year, it's the optimal time to give him a legitimate major league shot. He's reached his physical peak. He's been extremely successful at every minor league level. Play him or trade him.

  21. #71

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob035 View Post
    He's dominated every level while posting a K/9 over 9. His walks are certainly higher than you'd like, and it's hard to get a definitive answer on his command, but there are indeed reports that indicate he is the type of pitcher who lives on the edges.

    MLB Pipeline
    Good points. It's not like there haven't been major league pitchers who have been successful at a high level with a walk rate of 3/9.
    Last edited by Bill Marsh; 01-07-17 at 05:39 PM.

  22. #72
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Good points. It's not like their haven't been major league pitchers who have been successful at a high level with a walk rate of 3/9.
    Who do you sit for Enns? Green or Severino?

  23. #73
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    Who do you sit for Enns? Green or Severino?
    It's not about who do you sit - it's about who shows that they are ready to grab the brass ring. I would not hand him the ring, but he certainly needs to get a look see.

    IMO, Severino is penciled into the #4 spot behind Tanaka, Pineda & CC (whatever the order) - that role is Seve's to lose. If he does not turn it around and solve his SP issues, then, given what he has shown as a RP, he moves to the pen or he is sent to SWB to work on the role - either way opening another rotation slot.

    We will see Warren (albeit likely in the pen to start the season), Mitchell, Cessa, Green, Enns and probably others battling for the #5 spot. I think Enns is likely a loser here, at least in the beginning of the season, so he goes back to AAA to stay stretched out and work on whatever issues are identified - he will almost certainly be needed at some point during the season.

    I do agree that NOW is the time for Enns to either defecate or get off the pot - if he can't make it to the ML at 26 for the Yankees with their SP needs, then I don't see keeping him on the 40-man just because he has options.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  24. #74
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    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    I agree with all of that. I don't have Enns winning the battle for the last spot in the rotation, but I wouldn't object to him getting it with a great ST performance. I also think that it's pretty likely that he'll get a shot at some point even if he doesn't earn it right out of the gate. It's pretty typical for a club to use 8-12 starters over the course of a season (we had 9 guys get 5 or more starts last season). I'd have him pegged as my #8 right now--behind Severino, Green, Cessa, and Mitchell--with a window that's closing rapidly as Adams/Kap/Sheffield hit the higher levels of the minor leagues. All that said, if he shows improvement in the walks, he could easily jump ahead of Green, Cessa, and Mitchell. I'm just not as sold by his minor league numbers by some people around here.

  25. #75

    Re: Dietrich Enns vs. Jordan Montgomery For 5th Spot

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    Who do you sit for Enns? Green or Severino?
    I'd like to see Severino start the season in Scranton.

    I'm also not a Pineda fan. I'd either move him to the pen or trade him. He's had 2 full seasons to prove himself. He hasn't.

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