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  1. #4401

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Matt Hollliday looking forward to his first Yankee season ahead:

    http://nypost.com/2017/01/14/matt-ho...-hes-sweating/

  2. #4402

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Bet he comes to camp in the best shape of his life.

  3. #4403
    It's a walkoff Mark19's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Texsahara View Post
    Bet he comes to camp in the best shape of his life.
    I'm just glad he didn't do the whole "grew up a Yankees fan / this was my dream / this is where I always wanted to play...etc." shtick.

    Like when Adrian Gonzalez claimed that he was a Red Sox fan his whole life and idolized Ted Williams
    SI: Do you have a secret ambition?
    Igawa: That's secret.


    "They should just practice during the regular season and show up for the playoffs -Ichiro on the Yankees

  4. #4404

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Texsahara View Post
    Bet he comes to camp in the best shape of his life.
    When you are up there in age, you need to prepare more.

  5. #4405
    NYYF Legend

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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    Jon Lester?
    Yeah, read the article.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  6. #4406

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    I'm not saying they can't... but they ALL can't play. and it's much easier to find OFs (in the case of Frazier) than it is in young SP, look at the markets over the next 2 to 3 years for FA, if the Yankees don't develop SP or sooner or later make a trade for one, they wont be competing in 2019 either.
    Patience. The Yankees have young SP. As you say, they ALL can't play, so why would you try to acquire more young SP when the team can't find room for all the young arms it has right now?

    They've committed to rebuilding with young talent.so let the talent compete, and the cream will rise to the top.

  7. #4407

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Patience. The Yankees have young SP. As you say, they ALL can't play, so why would you try to acquire more young SP when the team can't find room for all the young arms it has right now?

    They've committed to rebuilding with young talent.so let the talent compete, and the cream will rise to the top.
    I'm talking about a major league ready young pitcher... one already in the major leagues, not someone they have to find a spot for.

  8. #4408
    Foul pole sitter Skowron's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken711 View Post
    Matt Hollliday looking forward to his first Yankee season ahead:

    http://nypost.com/2017/01/14/matt-ho...-hes-sweating/

    Pull ups with a weight between his legs in the picture. I pulled a groin just looking at it.

  9. #4409
    NYYF Legend

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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    To a point that was being discussed a few days ago regarding the success rate of pitching prospects, here's an article that uses BA prospect lists over a number of years and seeks to see how the prospects hit.

    http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/1...-mlb-prospects

    You should take a few minutes and sort through it because it is long and highly detailed, but I'll post two of the more conclusive charts that pertain to our discussions here.



    And then the breakdown by ranking and pitcher/hitter prospects:

    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  10. #4410
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark19 View Post
    I'm just glad he didn't do the whole "grew up a Yankees fan / this was my dream / this is where I always wanted to play...etc." shtick.

    Like when Adrian Gonzalez claimed that he was a Red Sox fan his whole life and idolized Ted Williams
    well, in the article, he does talk about his how grandfather was a huge yankees fan and that the yankees were on the short list of places he wanted to play when we was first a FA... it's not exactly ballwashing dimaggio or mantle, but it's close enough
    help feed the hungry:

    www.thehungersite.com

  11. #4411
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    About right fir a 1 WAR guy, which is where bWAR has him. I don't understand how Fangraphs has him at 3 WAR. Smh.
    I didn't get through the entire thread yet, but in case no one else responded to you:


    Fangraphs loves things a Pitcher can control. Pineda has excellent K/9 rates, excellent K to BB rates, and relatively low walk rates. That helps him in spite of the fact that he basically was hit hard in 2/3 of his starts last year.


    For Pitchers, bWAR is the way to go.

  12. #4412

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    I didn't get through the entire thread yet, but in case no one else responded to you:


    Fangraphs loves things a Pitcher can control. Pineda has excellent K/9 rates, excellent K to BB rates, and relatively low walk rates. That helps him in spite of the fact that he basically was hit hard in 2/3 of his starts last year.


    For Pitchers, bWAR is the way to go.
    Thanks. Greatly appreciate the insight.

  13. #4413
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    I disagree. He's held on to all of the top starting pitching prospects. Hasn't traded any of them away. Exactly what he should have done.
    BINGO!!


    This is why I think Cashman is handling this off-season the way I was hoping he would. No crazy FA signings. No prospect-laden trades for "ehh" starting pitching. I would like to get Quintana, but not at the cost of what I have read is required.

  14. #4414

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    To a point that was being discussed a few days ago regarding the success rate of pitching prospects, here's an article that uses BA prospect lists over a number of years and seeks to see how the prospects hit.

    http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/1...-mlb-prospects

    You should take a few minutes and sort through it because it is long and highly detailed, but I'll post two of the more conclusive charts that pertain to our discussions here.



    And then the breakdown by ranking and pitcher/hitter prospects:

    Thanks for going to the trouble to post this. Excellent information.

    I doubt that anyone has done further analysis, but it would be interesting to separate out which "busts" were due to injury and which were simply an inability to perform at the major league level.

    It's also interesting that the list was compiled during the height of the so-called "steroid era". I'm not a big believer in the efficacy of PEDS, it I do think that people can mess up their body by introducing foreign agents. The other factor is that this was for whatever reason a high offense era, which must have been very hard on pitchers. When a pitcher had one kind of approach that worked for him at lower levels of competition and then advanced to the major leagues at the very time that balls started flying out of the park, it would have required a complete reevaluation of his pitching approach.

    Just food for thought.

  15. #4415
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    If you are aware of my history here I'm kinda of an outcast in this forum because 1) I was one of the early Cashman/player development critics along with several other posters 2) I believe some of the Sabermetric stats, specifically WAR and FIP are deeply flawed. So I agree with your post, but be prepared for some serious push back.
    I, like YankyFan, also enjoy your posts. Don't always agree, but they are usually worth reading and make sense.

  16. #4416

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    I'm talking about a major league ready young pitcher... one already in the major leagues, not someone they have to find a spot for.
    Why?

    Every young pitcher already in the major leagues also had a rookie season. So, why not advance the prospects we have? There is such depth in starting pitching within the organization that it should be no problem to simply turn to the next guy in line if a youngster is over his head in the major league rotation.

    This should be viewed as a rebuilding season. The only way to rebuild from within is to give the young talent a shot and continue to advance the talent behind them so that there are other options in place. That seems to me to be the way to get the best return on the effort to develop these young pitchers. When you find one who is successful you potentially have him for the rest of his career.

    When you talk about "major league ready young pitchers . . . already in the major leagues", I'm not sure who you're referring to. Quintana, for example, certainly wouldn't fit that description. If we are talking about a truly young pitcher 1-3 years into his career, then we're talking about a pitcher who hasn't truly established himself. Even after a successful year or two, pitchers regress (Nova for example), they get hurt (Nova again). So there are no guarantees.

    In the past the Yankees opted for what appeared to be a low risk strategy by acquiring established veterans. The problem was that they had no one in the organization behind them, meaning the risk was much higher than it appeared. The strategy worked in the dynasty years but fell apart in the post-dynasty era. Pitchers like. Vazquez, Pavano, and Burnett appeared to be sure fire successes when the Yankees acquired them, but so many resources were tied up in them that when they failed/faltered, the organization was sent scrambling to try to replace them.

    What I like about the current situation is that if/when a pitcher fails or is injured, there should be another guy waiting in the wings and just chomping at the bit for the chance to show what he can do. I don't want to mess with that.

  17. #4417
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    Why?

    Every young pitcher already in the major leagues also had a rookie season. So, why not advance the prospects they have? There is such depth in starting pitching within the organization that it should be no problem to simply turn to the next guy in line if a youngster is over his head in the major league rotation.

    This should be viewed as a rebuilding season. The only way to rebuild from within is to give the young talent a shot and continue to advance the talent behind them so that there are other options in place. That seems to me to be the way to get the best return on the effort to develop these young pitchers. When you find one who is successful you potentially have him for the rest of his career.

    When you talk about "major league ready young pitchers . . . already in the major leagues", I'm not sure who you're referring to. Quintana, for example, certainly wouldn't fit that description. If we are talking about a truly young pitcher 1-3 years into his career, then we're talking about a pitcher who hasn't truly established himself. Even after a successful year or two, pitchers regress (Nova for example), they get hurt (Nova again). So there are no guarantees.

    In the past the Yankees opted for what appeared to be a low risk strategy by acquiring established veterans. The problem was that they had no one in the organization behind them, meaning the risk was much higher than it appeared. The strategy worked in the dynasty years but fell apart in the post-dynasty era. Pitchers like. Vazquez, Pavano, and Burnett appeared to be sure fire successes when the Yankees acquired them, but so many resources were tied up in them that when they failed/faltered, the organization was sent scrambling to try to replace them.

    What I like about the current situation is that if/when a pitcher fails or is injured, there should be another guy waiting in the wings and just chomping at the bit for the chance to show what he can do. I don't want to mess with that.
    Agree with this. It's hard to define exactly what a major league ready young pitcher actually means. Case in point was the deal for Pineda. We traded our (at the time) best young up and coming hitting prospect for a major league ready young pitcher. Although Montero has been a complete bust, Pineda has not developed into the stud rotation piece he was projected to be either. Given the young, not quite ready yet major league ready pitchers we now have in the organization, I'm as excited about seeing what we have in them as I am about the excellent young offensive prospects we will also need as the team moves forward.
    Yankee fan living in Maine.

  18. #4418
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    Thanks. A lot of Gleyber video in that I haven't seen.

  19. #4419
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Watching some Kap video out of boredom. He comes on in the bottom of the 4th (gets blasted in 5th).

    http://m.mlb.com/tv/e14-469527-2016-...meday&team=mlb

  20. #4420

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    First, don't play the victim. You tango with people here.

    Second, I don't think Bill needs to prepare for that at all. "Not a fan of FIP, here's why and here's a comparison point" is infinitely more discussion worthy than "All you stat heads and saber geeks that consider metrics that exceed my patience or comprehension are dumb"
    As is often the case, F1 cutting through the BS and nailing it on the head.

    I like FIP but I, too, have been a critic of WAR as a panacea for baseball evaluation. However, I think devaluing SABR or advanced metrics is absurd.

  21. #4421
    Better than you teknetic's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    But calling people statgeeks and nerds because they just cite popular sources as references is so much fun!

  22. #4422
    Foul pole sitter Skowron's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mbn007 View Post
    BINGO!!


    This is why I think Cashman is handling this off-season the way I was hoping he would. No crazy FA signings. No prospect-laden trades for "ehh" starting pitching. I would like to get Quintana, but not at the cost of what I have read is required.

    True, but I always have the fear that he could go off the rails at any time.

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