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  1. #3976

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    This.
    This.
    This.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    Quintana's 800+ IP in his age 24-27 seasons, and very good but not dominant results, give me enough pause to not even come close to the White Sox asking price.

    I like the player, and if he had been doing this for the Yankees all along it'd be great to have him at the top of the rotation. But paying the prospect cost for both his performance AND his contract, at this point in his career, is not palatable to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    i wouldn't trade high tier position talent for non-dominant pitching. pitching is one of these areas of the game where we can make good new pitchers easier than before. at least the inning eating guys
    Quote Originally Posted by melon View Post
    ^^ From Ken Rosenthal's article. I have no problem having these 5 guys duke it out for the 2 spots and it would probably be rotated among them during the season.

    And that's not even considering our depth behind them- like Enns and Montgomery, who seem to have no realistic shot to win a rotation spot out of ST without massive injuries to our projected starters.

    That's not my preferred plan in '18-'19, but I'd really like to see what he have with our young arms this season.
    Replace Enns with Chance Adams and it's even more appealing an idea.

  2. #3977

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    But this has nothing to do with the discussion. We're talking about trading for him, not whether his contract is team friendly.
    Agree with that except that he doesn't have a lot of career innings pitched when compared to other pitchers his age. Which would be a positive if the Yankees decided to go for it.

  3. #3978
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    6 weeks until P&C's... Time for Ninja Cash to pull out a SP from his hairy rectum
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  4. #3979
    "The Barrel" ClownPickle's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    6 weeks until P&C's... Time for Ninja Cash to pull out a SP from his hairy rectum
    Pulling things from there would be a change of pace.

  5. #3980
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Portbb View Post
    Agree with that except that he doesn't have a lot of career innings pitched when compared to other pitchers his age. Which would be a positive if the Yankees decided to go for it.
    I wouldn't say his innings load is a positive at all. Over the past four years only 2 pitchers pitchers that are his age have thrown more innings than Quintana.

    Bumgarner: 863.2
    Sale: 823.2
    Quintana: 814.2

    And when looking at pitches thrown over the last four years, Quintana ranks 6th overall in baseball:

    Scherzer: 13,948
    Shields: 13,758
    Bumgarner: 13,459
    Price: 13,420
    Lester: 13,400
    Quintana: 13,338

    I'm not saying I'm sure he's going to break down or fall off, just that he's had a substantial workload through his age 24-27 seasons.
    Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA

  6. #3981
    "The Barrel" ClownPickle's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    If you look at PAP. It's not as bad as that. Sale on the other hand was #1 last two seasons.

    2013: #36
    2014: #27
    2015: #13
    2016: #15

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1819111

    EDIT: PAP calculation...

    Pitcher Abuse Points. When used in the Pitcher Abuse Point report, PAP refers to PAP^3, which assigns 0 PAP to a start in which the pitcher throws 100 or fewer pitches and (PC-100)^3 PAP for all other starts.

  7. #3982

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob035 View Post
    There is no way the Yankees are trading anything close to Frazier + Rutherford + Acevedo for Quintana.

    And there's no way the White Sox are trading Quintana for Mateo + some lower level prospects.

    This deal isn't going to happen unless the asking price comes down. Frazier plus some a couple guys in our 8-15 range is probably what it'll take at that point and I'm okay with that. Otherwise, don't blow up the whole farm for him.
    Frazier, Mateo and a lower tier prospect would be my max

  8. #3983

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    The equivalent to the Sales trade for the Yankees to acquire Quintana would be something like Frazier (#1 prospect), Rutherford (#5), Acevedo (#8) & Molina (#28) [note; I used RS prospect rankings from this MEET THE NEW WHITE SOX PROSPECTS article].

    While I acknowledge that Quintana would be a GREAT addition to the Yankees, he is not the final piece in the puzzle. He would give us improved starting pitching, but I honestly do not believe that the Yankees would get beyond about 88 wins with him on the staff and they would be giving up three prospects that everyone is drooling over.
    He wont cost AS MUCH.as Sale but it will be a big price..

  9. #3984

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    I realize and that's why I don't think the Yankees should get him. There's no reason for the White Sox not to ask for Torres plus more in return just as a starting point.
    Torres will be a consenus top 5 prospect in the re ranking, he along with Sanchez are I think the only ones not even considered in any trade

  10. #3985
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanks12009 View Post
    To me, Cessa showed me last year that he could be a serviceable #5 starter.

    Agreed. Maybe even a bit more. HAs 4 pitches and uses them all. Command in the zone needs to improve so the HR rate drops. But he has excellent control though.

  11. #3986
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    Torres will be a consenus top 5 prospect in the re ranking, he along with Sanchez are I think the only ones not even considered in any trade
    And he's still not as good as Moncada as a prospect. Sale is no doubt better but Quintana has 2 more years of control. He may not cost as much as Sale but it would be close. White Sox would be dumb not to ask Torres in return and if the Yankees don't want to meet the asking price, yhe White Sox could wait.

  12. #3987

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Snatch Catch View Post
    I wouldn't say his innings load is a positive at all. Over the past four years only 2 pitchers pitchers that are his age have thrown more innings than Quintana.

    Bumgarner: 863.2
    Sale: 823.2
    Quintana: 814.2

    And when looking at pitches thrown over the last four years, Quintana ranks 6th overall in baseball:

    Scherzer: 13,948
    Shields: 13,758
    Bumgarner: 13,459
    Price: 13,420
    Lester: 13,400
    Quintana: 13,338

    I'm not saying I'm sure he's going to break down or fall off, just that he's had a substantial workload through his age 24-27 seasons.
    He's certainly in good company at least. Impressive.

  13. #3988

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ny27xwschamps View Post
    Frazier, Mateo and a lower tier prospect would be my max
    No Frazier....I'd pass.

  14. #3989

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    #5 starters aren't the types we should be giving rotation spots to. He had a 5.52 FIP last season. I like his changeup, other than that, meh.
    What do you mean? Severino, CC, and Cessa fit the bill fine for the 4-5 spots.

    Cessa was much improved in the second half, putting up a 4.15 xFIP. Good K/BB ratio. HR rate was baaad, but it was one of his strengths in the minors.

    Greene should be converted to a reliever yesterday. Warren should stay in that role.

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    And he's still not as good as Moncada as a prospect. Sale is no doubt better but Quintana has 2 more years of control. He may not cost as much as Sale but it would be close. White Sox would be dumb not to ask Torres in return and if the Yankees don't want to meet the asking price, yhe White Sox could wait.
    Ehhh, that gap closed significantly I think after Moncada's terrible ML debut and Torres' blistering AFL performance. Torres is 1.5 years younger at a more premium position.


  15. #3990
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    What do you mean? Severino, CC, and Cessa fit the bill fine for the 4-5 spots.

    Cessa was much improved in the second half, putting up a 4.15 xFIP. Good K/BB ratio. HR rate was baaad, but it was one of his strengths in the minors.

    Greene should be converted to a reliever yesterday. Warren should stay in that role.
    I just don't think Cessa's ceiling is all that high. I don't want a good 5th starter in that slot. I want a guy with the potential to be top of rotation there. That K/BB just isn't sustainable. I'd bet everything I own he doesn't repeat a 5.9 K/9 with a 1.8 BB/9. Among SPs that qualified, that would be the 5th worst K rate in baseball. That's just not going to hold up.

  16. #3991

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    What do you mean? Severino, CC, and Cessa fit the bill fine for the 4-5 spots.

    Cessa was much improved in the second half, putting up a 4.15 xFIP. Good K/BB ratio. HR rate was baaad, but it was one of his strengths in the minors.

    Greene should be converted to a reliever yesterday. Warren should stay in that role.



    Ehhh, that gap closed significantly I think after Moncada's terrible ML debut and Torres' blistering AFL performance. Torres is 1.5 years younger at a more premium position.
    Mike Trout's terrible start compares to Moncada's terrible start. Really means nothing.

    Both Moncada and Torres have bright futures.

  17. #3992
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t View Post
    And he's still not as good as Moncada as a prospect. Sale is no doubt better but Quintana has 2 more years of control. He may not cost as much as Sale but it would be close. White Sox would be dumb not to ask Torres in return and if the Yankees don't want to meet the asking price, yhe White Sox could wait.
    Quintana's years of control don't do much for me considering we're probably gonna waste two of those years.

  18. #3993
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by teknetic View Post
    Quintana's years of control don't do much for me considering we're probably gonna waste two of those years.
    Agreed.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  19. #3994
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    The White Sox have ALL the leverage. They have a top of the rotation starter in his prime under team control for four more years at a fraction of what he would cost on the free agent market. Some of you are proposing they take less than the Yankees got for two plus years of control and 60 innings a year of Andrew Miller.

  20. #3995

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    I just don't think Cessa's ceiling is all that high. I don't want a good 5th starter in that slot. I want a guy with the potential to be top of rotation there. That K/BB just isn't sustainable. I'd bet everything I own he doesn't repeat a 5.9 K/9 with a 1.8 BB/9. Among SPs that qualified, that would be the 5th worst K rate in baseball. That's just not going to hold up.
    I don't think it's that high either and I'd prefer a higher upside guy be there, but very few teams have that luxury. It's far MORE important to have 2, maybe 3, shutdown guys at the front of the rotation. The rest to me can be filler if you've got the offense and BP to get you to the playoffs.

    If you don't have a future TOR guy to plug in there, going with someone like Cessa is fine. If you give Severino the 4th spot, who does that leave? By mid-year maybe someone comes up, but I don't think we've got that yet. And I prefer bringing those guys up to be a relief weapon, especially if they're pushing inning limits.

    Quote Originally Posted by Portbb View Post
    Mike Trout's terrible start compares to Moncada's terrible start. Really means nothing.

    Both Moncada and Torres have bright futures.
    It means nothing in terms of what might happen. It means something in terms of prospect VALUE. Just like Montero's sizzling debut increased his value, Moncada's took a bit of a hit.


  21. #3996
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Rumor has it Moncada is actually 34 years old. Turns out, he lacks a set of androgens that are required for prominent facial hair growth. He passed with flying colors. The Red Sox caught wind of this and were glad to ship him out to Chicago.

  22. #3997

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Happened to notice that CC was second in the majors behind Hendricks with a 24% soft on batted balls and second with a 24.7% hard behind Tanner Roark. (I bet flymick would be 24.7% hard behind Tanner Roark.)

    I think he'll be a really interesting guy to watch in 2017.


  23. #3998
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    I don't think it's that high either and I'd prefer a higher upside guy be there, but very few teams have that luxury. It's far MORE important to have 2, maybe 3, shutdown guys at the front of the rotation. The rest to me can be filler if you've got the offense and BP to get you to the playoffs.

    If you don't have a future TOR guy to plug in there, going with someone like Cessa is fine. If you give Severino the 4th spot, who does that leave? By mid-year maybe someone comes up, but I don't think we've got that yet. And I prefer bringing those guys up to be a relief weapon, especially if they're pushing inning limits.
    I'd prefer Montgomery get the 5th spot to start the season, then down the line you are looking at Kap, Adams, Sheffield, Enns, Littell, ect...

  24. #3999

    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ClownPickle View Post
    I'd prefer Montgomery get the 5th spot to start the season, then down the line you are looking at Kap, Adams, Sheffield, Enns, Littell, ect...
    Like all those guys and hope they get a shot in ST. Would be fine giving the 5th spot to someone based on ST performance, but at this point I'd just wait to see how things shake out in ST.


  25. #4000
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    Re: 2016 Winter Hot Stove Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    Like all those guys and hope they get a shot in ST. Would be fine giving the 5th spot to someone based on ST performance, but at this point I'd just wait to see how things shake out in ST.
    Who is on the 40 and who has options I think will play more of a role. Cessa and Green both on the 40, I expect they'll both make the team regardless. Speaking of which, I really don't want to see Romine get the backup job.

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