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  1. #76

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by melon View Post
    I don't know why another team would give up something of value, which is why I didn't say one would. But he can be moved if Cash doesn't want much in return. At least, a lot easier than Ellsbury and McCann.
    Agree.

    I still don't know why anyone would want to provide the Yankees with salary relief for. Guy whose back is a ticking time bomb even if they don't have to give up much. Most teams are careful with how they spend their money.

  2. #77
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Headley was a 2.6 bWAR player this year. That actually means he gave the Yankees surplus value based on his $13M a year deal. Let's not pretend he's a worthless player. He's 32 years old, not 38. If the Yanks wanted to eat $6M of the remaining $26M on his deal, there would be interested in him.

  3. #78

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by THEBOSS84 View Post
    Headley was a 2.6 bWAR player this year. That actually means he gave the Yankees surplus value based on his $13M a year deal. Let's not pretend he's a worthless player. He's 32 years old, not 38. If the Yanks wanted to eat $6M of the remaining $26M on his deal, there would be interested in him.
    And he was a 1.6 WAR player the year before. So, he's been paid pretty much what he was worth in the first 2 years of the contract.

    The issue really isn't what he was in the past but what he projects in the future. With his bad back, he's an old 33 year old going into next year. His WAR, which was only 17th among all 30 major league 3Bmen, was largely propped up by his defense in 2016. We saw in 2015 how quickly that can slip.

  4. #79
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Congrats again to Brett ... just named the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year for left field!

    http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/articl...fensive-award/

    The 33-year-old Gardner tallied 12 Defensive Runs Saved for the Yankees to lead all American League left fielders, per FanGraphs. The Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Awards, established in 2012, evaluate infielders and outfielders based upon a formula that includes defensive WAR (25 percent), Defensive Runs Saved (25 percent), Inside Edge fielding ratings (20 percent), Inside Edge arm ratings (20 percent) and fielding percentage (10 percent).

  5. #80
    Time to reset the luxury tax melon's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Marsh View Post
    And he was a 1.6 WAR player the year before. So, he's been paid pretty much what he was worth in the first 2 years of the contract.

    The issue really isn't what he was in the past but what he projects in the future. With his bad back, he's an old 33 year old going into next year. His WAR, which was only 17th among all 30 major league 3Bmen, was largely propped up by his defense in 2016. We saw in 2015 how quickly that can slip.
    This is a bit misleading as the 1.6 bWAR in '15 was the outlier for Headley, not 2.6 bWAR in '16.

    Going back, he had 3.5 WAR ('14), 3.4 WAR ('13), 6.3 WAR ('12), 2.8 WAR ('11), 3.9 WAR ('10).

    While I was also concerned about Headley's back, he's been durable, averaging 145 games/season over the past 8 years. He's tradable, which doesn't mean that we should necessarily trade him.

    (hijack over)
    Trade Ellsbury. Keep Gardner.

  6. #81
    Time to reset the luxury tax melon's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by -tz View Post
    Congrats again to Brett ... just named the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year for left field!

    http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/articl...fensive-award/
    Congrats, Gardy.
    Trade Ellsbury. Keep Gardner.

  7. #82
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by melon View Post
    Congrats, Gardy.
    The GG is a strange award..Gardy should have more than 1. Is the Wilson award judged in a different manner?

  8. #83

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by melon View Post
    This is a bit misleading as the 1.6 bWAR in '15 was the outlier for Headley, not 2.6 bWAR in '16.

    Going back, he had 3.5 WAR ('14), 3.4 WAR ('13), 6.3 WAR ('12), 2.8 WAR ('11), 3.9 WAR ('10).

    While I was also concerned about Headley's back, he's been durable, averaging 145 games/season over the past 8 years. He's tradable, which doesn't mean that we should necessarily trade him.

    (hijack over)
    Why would we be looking backward as far as 2010-11 as a guide to what Headley's career might look like going forward?

    What's clear is that Headley's career peaked at ages 26-29 as it does for most players. He's been in a modest decline since then. Here's what the progression of his bWAR has been since his best season in 2012

    2012 - 6.3
    2013 - 3.4
    2014 - 1.4/2.1
    2015 - 1.1
    2016 - 2.6

    His bWAR has declined every year except 2016. It's 2016 that seems like the outlier to me, not 2015. Nothing ever moves in a straight line, so there's nothing unusual about a player improving from one year to the next in his early 30's. But it's the overall progression of several years that matters. For this reason, projections on Fangraphs estimate his WAR for next year at 2.1 with an anticipated decline for 2017 from 2016.

    As for the bad back, durability is not the only thing affected by such a chronic condition. There was much speculation last year that all of his throwing errors were due to his back acting up. No way to know for sure. Even with last durability, there's no way to know when the back will disable him, so a team is buying into increased risk if it acquires him. Larry Bird quickly went from one of the best players in NBA history to one who could no longer compete due to a chronic back condition.

  9. #84
    Time to reset the luxury tax melon's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Bill, his bWAR is his selling point as a tradable player. Not his achilles heel. Regardless, we should probably continue the Headley discussion in his thread.
    Trade Ellsbury. Keep Gardner.

  10. #85
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Brett Gardnerís continuous evolution

    Conclusion:
    You may be checking out Gardnerís WARP (or fWAR) marks for each season and noticing a gradual decrease on the whole, but donít let that distract you on Gardnerís achievements. As an oft-banged up speedster who has lost a couple steps, the chances of him aging well and remaining a plus regular were incredibly slim. Gardnerís avoided this rapid decline by constantly adjusting his game, evolving into a number of different profiles but all the while remaining productive. Maybe 2016 lacked the near-20 home runs or near-50 stolen bases weíve seen in the past from Gardner, but the Yankees were still glad to have him in the lineup and on the field every day. Given this impressive track record, thereís no reason not to expect him to continue to hone his game to highlight his strengths and minimize his weaknesses in the future.

  11. #86

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    I have been saying for years speed was not at the core of Gardner's value.

  12. #87

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Using the garbage stat of WAR as your main evaluation is a joke!
    Sorry guys who think that WAR is the big stat, my opinion to move Bret isn't so much as a knock but simply to find someone better. His glove is good the arm is terrible unless he's in the short field. His two strike approach is very poor and his running game is gone!
    I doubt they get any value at this point maybe a relief pitcher and a minor league kid.

    I agree that Elsbury is the money problem with his far below expectation performance.
    The fact remains this was not a durable ballplayer in Boston and his adjustment ability seems to take forever once he starts slumping.

    Just tired of the little guys fading once the middle of August comes. Get rid of Girardi too...

  13. #88

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    I'm surprised we don't see more action for Gardner. He is a solid player who is on a decent contract.
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  14. #89

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    We need some of the free agent outfielders to sign. Then I bet Gardner becomes more attractive to some teams. I still feel like he's gone.

  15. #90
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TrueYankee01 View Post
    We need some of the free agent outfielders to sign. Then I bet Gardner becomes more attractive to some teams. I still feel like he's gone.
    No way do I want to sign any FA OFers. We have Frazier, Judge, Rutherford, etc coming up soon ... I know they are trying Mateo in CF but needs to bat better. I thought Mason did fine last year and then there is Ref (looks buffed). I rather see Gardy than Hicks. Gardy can always be a 4th OF and dump Hicks (not going to happen).

  16. #91
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bucky View Post
    No way do I want to sign any FA OFers. We have Frazier, Judge, Rutherford, etc coming up soon ... I know they are trying Mateo in CF but needs to bat better. I thought Mason did fine last year and then there is Ref (looks buffed). I rather see Gardy than Hicks. Gardy can always be a 4th OF and dump Hicks (not going to happen).
    I don't think he's saying we need any additional OF help. I think he's saying we need FA OFs to get signed throughout the league, thus elevating Gardner's trade value.

  17. #92
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    I don't think he's saying we need any additional OF help. I think he's saying we need FA OFs to get signed throughout the league, thus elevating Gardner's trade value.
    That's how I read it.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  18. #93

    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bucky View Post
    No way do I want to sign any FA OFers. We have Frazier, Judge, Rutherford, etc coming up soon ... I know they are trying Mateo in CF but needs to bat better. I thought Mason did fine last year and then there is Ref (looks buffed). I rather see Gardy than Hicks. Gardy can always be a 4th OF and dump Hicks (not going to happen).
    Hello, please read these.

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    I don't think he's saying we need any additional OF help. I think he's saying we need FA OFs to get signed throughout the league, thus elevating Gardner's trade value.
    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    That's how I read it.

  19. #94
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TrueYankee01 View Post
    Hello, please read these.





    My err. I misread your post. I thought you wanted US to sign some FA OFers. I should have known because I know you want the development of our prospects like I do.

    Yes, you are right this will help us in moving Gardy.

  20. #95
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by -tz View Post
    Congrats again to Brett ... just named the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year for left field!

    http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/articl...fensive-award/
    Somewhere out there...........Roy White tipped his cap.

  21. #96
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mr.roy View Post
    Somewhere out there...........Roy White tipped his cap.
    Roy White, IMO the most underrated and under appreciated Yankee of my life time.

  22. #97
    Time to reset the luxury tax melon's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vanderlay View Post
    Roy White, IMO the most underrated and under appreciated Yankee of my life time.
    I just realized that White never won a GG. He would have been much more appreciated with today's advanced metrics. When I look at his stats through OPS+, WAR, wRC+, he had an impressive career.

    I still get occasional pm's asking who is in my avatar.
    Trade Ellsbury. Keep Gardner.

  23. #98
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Roy White was a loud mouth troublemaker. Had he kept quiet and done his job he may have won more awards.
    I think it's time that I got off the kitchen floor, but is there really any point at all?
    Waking up this morning felt the same, better sleep while life is so mundane

  24. #99
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by melon View Post
    I just realized that White never won a GG. He would have been much more appreciated with today's advanced metrics. When I look at his stats through OPS+, WAR, wRC+, he had an impressive career.

    I still get occasional pm's asking who is in my avatar.
    B-R has him at negative 6.1 dWar for his career.

    Admittedly I was quite young during White's career but while I always thought he was underappreciated I never really thought of him as a great defender.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  25. #100
    Time to reset the luxury tax melon's Avatar
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    Re: 2016 Brett Gardner thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    B-R has him at negative 6.1 dWar for his career.

    Admittedly I was quite young during White's career but while I always thought he was underappreciated I never really thought of him as a great defender.
    I should have clarified that his offense would have been more appreciated with today's metrics. With the back of the baseball card stats, he seemed pedestrian.
    Trade Ellsbury. Keep Gardner.

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