PDA

View Full Version : 2006 PECOTA's are out



pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 11:11 AM
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, I'm really excited.

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 11:14 AM
I suppose I can take requests.

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 11:16 AM
Kearns, please.

Workhorse
01-27-06, 11:20 AM
Coco Crisp vs. Johnny Damon.

That will be VERY interesting.

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 11:21 AM
Austin Kearns

459 PA, .275/.367/.510, 27 2B, 26 HR, .292 EqA, average defense in right

Prickly Pete
01-27-06, 11:22 AM
http://www.taschen.com/media/images/190/excerpts_krazy_kids_03.jpg

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 11:24 AM
Coco Crisp vs. Johnny Damon.

That will be VERY interesting.

Coco Crisp: 662 PA, .295/.347/.445, 36 2B, 15 HR, .276 EqA, 2 FRAA : 17% breakout, 53% improve

Johnny Damon: 651 PA, .290/.352/.423, 29 2B, 13 HR, .274 EqA, 1 FRAA: 4% breakout, 30% improve

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 11:24 AM
The 2006 projections aren't on the player cards. Where are you finding them?You can only download the excel spreadsheet on the main page.

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 11:25 AM
What are the breakout/improve percentages on Kearns?

Workhorse
01-27-06, 11:25 AM
Coco Crisp: 662 PA, .295/.347/.445, 36 2B, 15 HR, .276 EqA, 2 FRAA : 17% breakout, 53% improve

Johnny Damon: 651 PA, .290/.352/.423, 29 2B, 13 HR, .274 EqA, 1 FRAA: 4% breakout, 30% improve

Honestly, about what I thought.

The Red Sox pretty clearly should make the deal with the Indians.

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 11:26 AM
What are the breakout/improve percentages on Kearns?33% and 66%

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 11:27 AM
Austin Kearns

459 PA, .275/.367/.510, 27 2B, 26 HR, .292 EqA, average defense in right

Good God.

The yankees need to jump into these talks immediately.

If I'm a Sox fan, I say f*ck Crisp, hold Marte, get Kearns.

lurkerMctroll
01-27-06, 11:34 AM
Good God.

The yankees need to jump into these talks immediately.

If I'm a Sox fan, I say f*ck Crisp, hold Marte, get Kearns.

I'd like both. I don't think Kearns can play center all too well and Nixon needs a platoon mate. Kearns could get plenty of ABs from Nixon and when they need to rest Manny. Kearns could replace Nixon after this season as well.

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 11:34 AM
Just looking at the comparison of pitching staffs, and here's what PECOTA thinks of the Sox and Yankees:

* Randy Johnson has the best projection of either staff.
* Johnson & Mussina are the 1-2 punch of the Yanks.
* Boy, do they love Philip Hughes.
* Boy, do they still need convincing about Chien-Ming Wang.
* Put them in the doubting Thomas club regarding Shawn Chacon, too.
* Yankee bullpen should be OK. Farnsworth adjusts to the AL just fine.
* Boston: lots of #2 and #3-level starters.
* Beckett is the best of the bunch.
* Schilling and Foulke are coming back? Prove it. We're not believers.
* Manny Delcarmen? Go ahead, throw him into the Crisp deal. He ain't gonna help you unless he's pitching for someone else, anyway.
* Papelbon has growing pains in his future.
* Craig Hansen? Good pickup. Julian Tavarez? Not so much.

Offensive summary when I can get to it.

scull567
01-27-06, 11:41 AM
Dustin Pedroia projection

.299/.365/.458 (.280 eqa)

Screw Gonzalez, just give this kid the shortstop job.

Jace
01-27-06, 11:42 AM
Austin Kearns

459 PA, .275/.367/.510, 27 2B, 26 HR, .292 EqA, average defense in right

I wonder if the new Reds GM will read PECOTA.

Jace
01-27-06, 11:43 AM
Dustin Pedroia projection

.299/.365/.458 (.280 eqa)

Screw Gonzalez, just give this kid the shortstop job.

Wow, for a prospect (even a good one)? How many PA?

hardrain
01-27-06, 11:44 AM
Eveything comes to a halt in my house on PECOTA day.

38Special
01-27-06, 11:44 AM
oh man PECOTA is like genius and stuff

scull567
01-27-06, 11:45 AM
Wow, for a prospect (even a good one)? How many PA?

551. I don't see him getting that many.

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 11:46 AM
Comparing the offenses:

* News flash: the Red Sox need Ortiz and Ramirez to stay really, really healthy.
* The third-best offensive projection on the Red Sox goes to...Dustin Pedroia???
* Andy Marte: projects just slightly higher than Mike Lowell. Betcha the disparity is wider in the '07 PECOTAs.
* Kevin Youkilis: not bad, but let's hold off carving that Hall of Fame plaque for a spell, shall we?
* The entirety of Sox youngsters not named "Pedroia": not ready for prime time.
* Yankees: are going to score one hell of a load of runs this year.
* Bernie Williams, Miguel Cairo: not too late to retire, fellas!
* Cano: not falling off a cliff, but no real improvement, esp. in OBP.

It's hard to look at these projections and not conclude that the Yankees are going to win this division by a pretty wide margin.

[Insert your favorite praise/damnation of PECOTA's reliability here.]

38Special
01-27-06, 11:57 AM
Kearns struck out 177 times over 604 ABs during the last two seasons and batted .235, but suddenly is going to slug 510? Something hes never done even during his flukey rookie season.

justinvarnes
01-27-06, 12:06 PM
Please forgive my ignorance, but how accurate have PECOTA projections been? of course they're not flawless, just curious as to how much faith to put in the projections...

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 12:07 PM
Kearns struck out 177 times over 604 ABs during the last two seasons and batted .235, but suddenly is going to slug 510? Something hes never done even during his flukey rookie season.


I can only think that the fact that he was finally healthy and put up an .851 OPS when he returned as such, has something to do with it.

ChewieTobbacca
01-27-06, 12:14 PM
Anyone got some projections for some big name players?

scull567
01-27-06, 12:34 PM
Anyone got some projections for some big name players?

Yes. Tony Womack: .247/.285/.305, -8.7 VORP

Smithers
01-27-06, 12:35 PM
551. I don't see him getting that many.

i hope i'm wrong, but i'll be surprised if he gets half that.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 12:55 PM
Just looking at the comparison of pitching staffs, and here's what PECOTA thinks of the Sox and Yankees:

* Randy Johnson has the best projection of either staff.
* Johnson & Mussina are the 1-2 punch of the Yanks.
* Boy, do they love Philip Hughes.
* Boy, do they still need convincing about Chien-Ming Wang.
* Put them in the doubting Thomas club regarding Shawn Chacon, too.
* Yankee bullpen should be OK. Farnsworth adjusts to the AL just fine.
* Boston: lots of #2 and #3-level starters.
* Beckett is the best of the bunch.
* Schilling and Foulke are coming back? Prove it. We're not believers.
* Manny Delcarmen? Go ahead, throw him into the Crisp deal. He ain't gonna help you unless he's pitching for someone else, anyway.
* Papelbon has growing pains in his future.
* Craig Hansen? Good pickup. Julian Tavarez? Not so much.

Offensive summary when I can get to it.

About what I thought too except I trust Chacon a bit more.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 12:56 PM
Yes. Tony Womack: .247/.285/.305, -8.7 VORP

Lol I didnt know it was possible to have a - vorp.

Smithers
01-27-06, 12:58 PM
* Yankee bullpen should be OK. Farnsworth adjusts to the AL just fine.

i wouldnt think he'd have to adjust at all, since he pitched for detroit most of last year.

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 01:02 PM
Please forgive my ignorance, but how accurate have PECOTA projections been? of course they're not flawless, just curious as to how much faith to put in the projections...

For me, the joy of the PECOTA's have always been the perfection of their time of arrival, in late January/early February. The hot stove has cooled somewhat (well, maybe not this year), spring training is still several weeks away, and this gives us some numbers to gaze at and put "substance" to the chest-thumping that we've all been doing all winter. I use the word "substance" advisedly, because at the end of the day, PECOTA hasn't appeared to be any more or less useful than any other projection system.

ShaneTravis
01-27-06, 01:08 PM
It's hard to look at these projections and not conclude that the Yankees are going to win this division by a pretty wide margin.

[Insert your favorite praise/damnation of PECOTA's reliability here.]

[PECOTA is pretty much Gospel, 11th Commandment, Prophecy type of stuff]

* At least this year in regards to the Yanks. ;)

In all seriousness thanks to all for the information.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 01:11 PM
I have a few request:

Papelbon
Dotel
Giambi

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 01:15 PM
Giambi (545 PA):

.251 / .395 / .492 / .887

18 2B, 28 HR, 82 RBI

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 01:16 PM
About what I thought too except I trust Chacon a bit more.
And I trust Wang more than PECOTA. But, with their lack of strikeouts, I knew PECOTA would not like them all that much.

Prickly Pete
01-27-06, 01:19 PM
Dustin Pedroia projection

.299/.365/.458 (.280 eqa)

Screw Gonzalez, just give this kid the shortstop job.
They had Pedroia at .299/.368/.435 before last season, when he hadn't played a game above high-A ball.

They're completely screwy when it comes to minor leaguers.

mjdlight
01-27-06, 01:22 PM
Paplebon:

101 IP, 4.91 ERA, 36 BB, 74 SO, 8.4 VORP.

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 01:22 PM
I have a few request:

Papelbon
Dotel
Giambi

You'll like this one:
Papelbon... 6-6, 4.91 ERA, 8.4 VORP, 1.43 WHIP, 74 K's IN 101 IP
(Counterpoint: they have Lester pitching more innings than Papelbon, which ain't happening without a big injury to Papelbon.)

Then again, Yankee fans should gleefully rejoice at the fact that no Red Sox pitcher will win more than 12 games this year.

I guess PECOTA took Epstein's recent comments about being willing to take a step back for a year pretty damned seriously!

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 01:23 PM
Johnny Damon: 651 PA, .290/.352/.423, 29 2B, 13 HR, .274 EqA, 1 FRAA: 4% breakout, 30% improve
I'm hopeful for a better BA (which in turn means a better OBP) from Damon. But, if that is what he'll give us, it is just further reason why Jeter should leadoff instead of Damon.

mjdlight
01-27-06, 01:24 PM
Dotel:

48 IP, 3.43 ERA, 19 BB, 52 SO, 10.8 VORP.

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 01:25 PM
Paplebon:

101 IP, 4.91 ERA, 36 BB, 74 SO, 8.4 VORP.

This is in line with my thinking on Papelbon for a while now.

mjdlight
01-27-06, 01:31 PM
And after all the talk about him this winter, we MUST have the Shoppach PECOTA, right??

Shoppach: 375 PA, .233/.307/.436, 18 2B, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 32 BB, 101 K, 7.7 VORP.

Honestly, 16 HR out of a backup C ain't shabby. Lots of Ks though...kind of a Bellhorn-esque prediction, no?

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 01:32 PM
They had Pedroia at .299/.368/.435 before last season, when he hadn't played a game above high-A ball.

They're completely screwy when it comes to minor leaguers.

The best way to look at their minor league numbers is to get a sense of what kinds of ballplayers these guys will be if/when they get the chance to play, and not necessarily attach these projections to 2006 specifically. (Kinda kills the spirit of calling them the "2006 PECOTA Projections," I know, but...)

As far as Pedroia goes, at least they're consistent. This year's line of .299/.365/.458 is pretty much the same as last year's; I guess that means they confirm what they've seen of him so far as what he'll do in the majors?

mjdlight
01-27-06, 01:33 PM
Giambi (545 PA):

.251 / .395 / .492 / .887

18 2B, 28 HR, 82 RBI

PECOTA not very high on Jason...

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 01:34 PM
Giambi (545 PA):

.251 / .395 / .492 / .887

18 2B, 28 HR, 82 RBI

I expect the OBP to be quite a bit higher. The last time he played a full season and had an obp lower than .400 was 98. It was 440 last lear and 412 in in 03 when he batted only 250.

Id project it more like .260/.415/.500

ChewieTobbacca
01-27-06, 01:35 PM
Any projections on Frank Thomas, Bonds, Pujols, anyone?

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 01:36 PM
Then again, Yankee fans should gleefully rejoice at the fact that no Red Sox pitcher will win more than 12 games this year.

Not only that...no Red Sox reliever has more than 9 saves this year, either, according to PECOTA. Viva la closer-by-committee!

bnorris85
01-27-06, 01:36 PM
what do they have for manny...wonder if they think his BA and OBP will be better. What about trot?

iodon
01-27-06, 01:37 PM
These projections crack me up. There is simply no way that Kearns is going to live up to that projection. Aside from an equation that makes those numbers, I can't possibly see the rationale. This guy was sent down to AAA last year, and this year he's going to be a monster? Can someone tell me what Corey Patterson's projections were for last year. Because the year before he put up pretty similar numbers to Kearns last year and look how 2005 turned out for Patterson.

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 01:38 PM
I'd really be shocked if hs SLG was anywhere close to .500, much less below it.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 01:38 PM
And I trust Wang more than PECOTA. But, with their lack of strikeouts, I knew PECOTA would not like them all that much.

Wang had good strike out rates in the minors though. Last year could have been an abberation. I dont think of Wang as an ace of course but a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. Chacon was recovering from a quad or hamstring injury last year which took a bit off his fastball(the difference between being conistantly 88 and 91 is a big difference for pitchers like him). Im expecting them to be solid 3 and 4 pitchers. I am totally predicting Mussina and Pavano to crap out though.

scull567
01-27-06, 01:39 PM
Felix Hernandez

3.27 ERA, 175 IP, 158 K's, 67 BB's, 11 HR's

ieddyi
01-27-06, 01:39 PM
There's a thread over at **** justifying projection systems in general by using the HR predictions from last year.

The question was why Texiera was only predicted to hit 29 HR.

Here was the response "Look at all the guys forecasted for 28 to 30 HRs: Beltre, Sheffield, Delgado, Teixeira, Andruw, Soriano, Tejada, HElton, Berkman, Konerko, Palmeiro, Burnitz, Beltran.

Half of those guys will hit more than 29 HR, and half will hit less. But, you, me, and everyone else has no idea who will hit 30 or 35 HR. Bad luck, good luck, injuries, whatever... everything plays a role in this.

Marcel's best guess is that those 13 hitters will average 29 HRs.

If you wanted Marcel to forecast number of HR without attaching names to it, that'd be alot easier, and the range would be wider.

Think of these forecasts as over/unders. "

IF the value of these things is only as accurate as an "over/under" why even bother pretending that they accurately predict future performance

I guarantee you that if there was a futures market for baseball players performances, the people who tout these prediction systems actually put their money where thier mouths are, they would all be bankrupt

ShaneTravis
01-27-06, 01:40 PM
Not only that...no Red Sox reliever has more than 9 saves this year, either, according to PECOTA. Viva la closer-by-committee!

Not that you should start taking reguests. But, if you have time could you put up Bernie's #'s ?
I would like to know their thinking if he gets more than 200 PA's.

I am quessing .260/.333/377

Thanks

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 01:42 PM
Felix Hernandez

3.27 ERA, 175 IP, 158 K's, 67 BB's, 11 HR's

Only 175 ip? I know he throws really fircking hard but has he had any arm problems yet?

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 01:44 PM
BTW what was Wang's actual projected line?

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 01:44 PM
Not that you should start taking reguests. But, if you have time could you put up Bernie's #'s ?
I would like to know their thinking if he gets more than 200 PA's.

I am quessing .260/.333/377

Thanks


Well done:

383 PA

.261 / .335 / .384

scull567
01-27-06, 01:46 PM
Only 175 ip? I know he throws really fircking hard but has he had any arm problems yet?

I usually ignore the IP, PA, etc forecasts. I don't think their projection for Felix is based on arm problems, just on how many IP he's pitched in the past. He's never thrown more than 200 IP's in his professional career.

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 01:46 PM
Any projections on Frank Thomas, Bonds, Pujols, anyone?Frank Thomas: 353 PA, .237/.342/.497, 22 HR, .283 EqA

Barry Bonds: 642 PA, .308/.459/.652, 48 HR, .363 EqA

Albert Pujols: 693 PA, .338/.433/.625, 41 HR, .347 EqA

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 01:47 PM
Part of the pitchers' PECOTA projections is "Stuff," which is defined thusly by Baseball Prospectus:
A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0}
Bearing in mind the parameters of a "0" replacement level and a "10" league average, the Red Sox starters shape up this way:

Beckett 25
Clement 17
Schilling 10
Arroyo 10
Wakefield 6
Papelbon 3
Wells -5

While the Yankees give us this to ponder:

R. Johnson 25
Philip Hughes 20 (!)
Mussina 16
Pavano 5
Wang -1
Chacon -4
Wright -5

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 01:48 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2515

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 01:49 PM
There's a thread over at **** justifying projection systems in general by using the HR predictions from last year.

"The Site That Dare Not Speak Its Name"? :lol:

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 01:50 PM
Part of the pitchers' PECOTA projections is "Stuff," which is defined thusly by Baseball Prospectus:
Bearing in mind the parameters of a "0" replacement level and a "10" league average, the Red Sox starters shape up this way:

Beckett 25
Clement 17
Schilling 10
Arroyo 10
Wakefield 6
Papelbon 3
Wells -5

While the Yankees give us this to ponder:

R. Johnson 25
Philip Hughes 20 (!)
Mussina 16
Pavano 5
Wang -1
Chacon -4
Wright -5

So Hughes, is going to be the second best pitcher on either staff? Gangsta

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 01:52 PM
PECOTA not very high on Jason...
Because of his 2004 season.

ShaneTravis
01-27-06, 01:54 PM
Well done:

383 PA

.261 / .335 / .384

Yikes. He is going to get close to 400 at bats. Ohh boy. At what point does that start to hurt the team's ability to score runs?

Are those #'s as bad as I think they are for a DH?

BTW thanks for the information.

mjdlight
01-27-06, 01:55 PM
Jaret Wright and Wells are both -5 STUFFs? Somethin' ain't right there. I know Wells is 43 and all, but I'll be damned if he doesn't have a better season than Jaret next year.

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 01:57 PM
Yikes. He is going to get close to 400 at bats. Ohh boy. At what point does that start to hurt the team's ability to score runs?

Are those #'s as bad as I think they are for a DH?

BTW thanks for the information.
What it does is it takes away the advantages that the Yankees have with their offense coming from other positions. For example, Damon is worth so much because his offense is so much better than the average CFer. Same with Jeter. And with Bernie out there in the DH spot, you take away some of those advantages because he's so much worse than the average DH.

Yes, they are as bad as you think they are for a DH. They may be worse depending on how bad you think they are.

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 01:58 PM
So Hughes, is going to be the second best pitcher on either staff? Gangsta
That's why I've got him in my av. :)

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 01:59 PM
BTW does anybody know what they actually predict WAngs line to be?

Jace
01-27-06, 02:02 PM
So Hughes, is going to be the second best pitcher on either staff? Gangsta

Just what is their prediction for him? They have him pitching major league innings?

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 02:02 PM
A couple requests... Kevin Millwood and Carl Pavano please.

scull567
01-27-06, 02:03 PM
BTW does anybody know what they actually predict WAngs line to be?

151 IP, 74 k's, 42 bb's, 16 hr, 56 gb %, 4.55 ERA, breakout 14 %, improve 36%, collapse 31%

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 02:03 PM
Just what is their prediction for him? They have him pitching major league innings?
I think, and I could be wrong, that when he does pitch in the majors those are the number he will put up. He won't pitch next year, but in a few years when he pitches, that's their initial prediction.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 02:05 PM
151 IP, 74 k's, 42 bb's, 16 hr, 56 gb %, 4.55 ERA, breakout 14 %, improve 36%, collapse 31%

thanks a bunch

scull567
01-27-06, 02:06 PM
A couple requests... Kevin Millwood and Carl Pavano please.

Millwood: 4.38 ERA (191.7 IP, 133 K's, 55 BB, 24 HR)

Pavano: 4.37 ERA (159.7 IP, 88 K's, 30 BB, 20 HR)

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-27-06, 02:11 PM
Hey since they are predicting most of the pitchers on the Yankees and Red Sox to suck, lets get some Blue Jays projections out here. ;)

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 02:11 PM
Millwood: 4.38 ERA (191.7 IP, 133 K's, 55 BB, 24 HR)

Pavano: 4.37 ERA (159.7 IP, 88 K's, 30 BB, 20 HR)
Thank you sir. I'd take that from Pavano. That sounds about right for Millwood and that begs the question: Was that a good signing?

BronxBaumer
01-27-06, 02:13 PM
Hughes, Jeter, Cano please

bnorris85
01-27-06, 02:18 PM
manny and trot...i dont think anyone gave me those before

ReggieBar
01-27-06, 02:18 PM
I wouldn't mind seeing Jeff Francoeur and Grady Sizemore. Thanks in advance for the info.

38Special
01-27-06, 02:19 PM
I can only think that the fact that he was finally healthy and put up an .851 OPS when he returned as such, has something to do with it.

Kearns was optioned to AAA on June 12th. His line at that time was .224/.306/.394.

He then bitched and moaned about how the Reds needed to trade him if he wasnt going to get the playing time.

He was called back up on July 20th. He tweaked his hamstring on July 30th, had 3 games off and was fine the rest of the season.

In July-August he had a nice stretch, bringing his numbers up to .248/.332/.444

Then in September he went back to the same old, batting .204/.334/.409

BeantownYankee
01-27-06, 02:24 PM
You'll like this one:
Papelbon... 6-6, 4.91 ERA, 8.4 VORP, 1.43 WHIP, 74 K's IN 101 IP
(Counterpoint: they have Lester pitching more innings than Papelbon, which ain't happening without a big injury to Papelbon.)

Then again, Yankee fans should gleefully rejoice at the fact that no Red Sox pitcher will win more than 12 games this year.

I guess PECOTA took Epstein's recent comments about being willing to take a step back for a year pretty damned seriously!
But that's only because they have an 8 man rotation

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 02:26 PM
Kearns was optioned to AAA on June 12th. His line at that time was .224/.306/.394.

He then bitched and moaned about how the Reds needed to trade him if he wasnt going to get the playing time.

He was called back up on July 20th. He tweaked his hamstring on July 30th, had 3 games off and was fine the rest of the season.

In July-August he had a nice stretch, bringing his numbers up to .248/.332/.444

Then in September he went back to the same old, batting .204/.334/.409

Totals since his callup on the 20th:

.253 / .353 / .498 / .851


I think he's going to continue putting it all together this year.

38Special
01-27-06, 02:30 PM
Totals since his callup on the 20th:

.253 / .353 / .498 / .851


I think he's going to continue putting it all together this year.
Look at his second half numbers in 04

Snatch Catch
01-27-06, 02:33 PM
Look at his second half numbers in 04


They sucked- no walk rate to speak of...

Workhorse
01-27-06, 02:41 PM
So Hughes is going to be that good and get that much opportunity?

It would seem to me that based on the painfully low PECOTA numbers on half the Sox staff, that Jon Lester would have good numbers too? Where do they have Lester?

pedromartinezfan
01-27-06, 02:42 PM
So Hughes is going to be that good and get that much opportunity?A new thing for PECOTA this year: PA's and IP's are totals from all professional levels, and the numbers are major league equivalents.

Workhorse
01-27-06, 02:43 PM
A new thing for PECOTA this year: PA's and IP's are totals from all professional levels, and the numbers are major league equivalents.

Ah, that explains a TON.

Thanks.

38Special
01-27-06, 02:48 PM
Robinson Cano
2004: .301/.356/.497 (AA)
2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389
Real 2005: .297/.320/.458


Jason Giambi
2003: .250/.412/.527
2004: .208/.342/.379
2005 PECOTA: .249/.386/.472
Real 2005: .271/.440/.535


Derek Jeter
2003: .324/.393/.450
2004: .292/.352/.471
2005 PECOTA: .294/.360/.451
Real 2005: .309/.389/.450

Hideki Matsui
2003: .287/.353/.435
2004: .298/.390/.522
2005 PECOTA: .287/.377/.484
Real 2005: .305/.367/.496

Jorge Posada
2003: .281/.405/.518
2004: .272/.400/.481
2005 PECOTA: .269/.393/.479
Real 2005: .262/.352/.430

Alex Rodriguez
2003: .298/.386/.600
2004: .286/.375/.512
2005 PECOTA: .289/.383/.551
Real 2005: .321/.421/.610

Gary Sheffield
2003: .330/.419/.604
2004: .290/.393/.534
2005 PECOTA: .292/.392/.518
Real 2005: .291/.379/.512

Bernie Williams
2003: .263/.367/.411
2004: .262/.360/.435
2005 PECOTA: .273/.369/.435
Real 2005: .249/.321/.367

Tony Womack
2003: .237/.270/.338
2004: .307/.349/.385
2005 PECOTA: .261/.303/.353
Real 2005: .249/.276/.280

Tino Martinez
2003: .273/.352/.429
2004: .262/.362/.461
2005 PECOTA: .267/.350/.444
Real 2005: .241/.328/.439

Ruben Sierra
2003: .276/.323/.437
2004: .244/.296/.456
2005 PECOTA: .258/.315/.432
Real 2005: .229/.265/.371


Melky Cabrera 2005 PECOTA: .250/.295/.364
Bubba Crosby 2005 PECOTA: .261/.323/.412
Eric Duncan 2005 PECOTA: .241/.311/.410
Andy Phillips 2005 PECOTA: .263/.326/.456
Kevin Reese 2005 PECOTA: .267/.325/.405

How many of these are good?

nnysiny
01-27-06, 05:43 PM
anyone have ARods projection?

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 05:47 PM
How many of these are good?
Honestly, as far as projections go, they are pretty good.

38Special
01-27-06, 05:53 PM
Honestly, as far as projections go, they are pretty good.

How so? I mean yeah, we could just take a player's numbers normalize them to their career numbers and then decrease them if they're after age 32, but I can't charge for that.

JeffWeaverFan
01-27-06, 05:59 PM
How so? I mean yeah, we could just take a player's numbers normalize them to their career numbers and then decrease them if they're after age 32, but I can't charge for that.
Yeah, I think they have a more complicated formula than that. Either way, I'm more interested in their pitching projections than hitting projections.

SoCal Pinstriper
01-27-06, 06:04 PM
Pavano: 4.37 ERA (159.7 IP, 88 K's, 30 BB, 20 HR) I would be very pleased if Pavano can put up a line like this in 2006.

I'm not surprised about PECOTA's doubts about Chacon and Wang. Using the "over/under" way of looking at these projections descrubed above (which makes a ton of sense to me), I think one of these two will exceed their projections, and one will fall short. My money is on Chacon to be the overachiever.

As for Johnson and Mussina (both quite optomistic from what I read above), I hope that both are as projected. Going against the grain here, I like Moose to fare well in a contract year.

Thanks to 38Special for posting the Yankee lineup projections. On first blush, although I understand why PECOTA cannot reasonably project it differently, I expect Sheff to exceed the numbers posted as he pushes for a new deal.

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 08:20 PM
Yeah, I think they have a more complicated formula than that. Either way, I'm more interested in their pitching projections than hitting projections.

Not to quibble, but the guys at BP will be the first ones to tell you that you should count on their hitting projections far more than their pitching projections. That's not necessarily a quirk of PECOTA, but more so a necessary evil tied with the unpredictability of pitchers year to year.

(This is why I'm far more concerned with some of the lower PECOTA projections for Sox hitters, and not at all with the pitchers' projections.)

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 08:25 PM
anyone have ARods projection?

.298/.391/.576...43 HR, 124 RBI...VORP 76.4, EqA .324 (which is north of Ortiz/Manny, but south of Bonds/Pujols).

As an aside, anyone know what the Defense number means in PECOTA? A-Rod is projected with a defensive rating of "0," which I assume to mean replacement-level, or average, defense. Glancing through the rest of the numbers, it appears that those with positive numbers are good defenders (or at least have good defensive reputations), while those in the negative are more associated with defensive question marks.

enterthesandman
01-27-06, 08:35 PM
For the love of god, someone post Hughes! :)

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 08:48 PM
For the love of god, someone post Hughes! :)

9-8, 3.82, 148 IP, 114 K's 46 BB's, VORP of 24.3 which would be second only to RJ. As someone pointed out earlier, this is not a projection of what he'll do for the NYY this year, but the major league equivalency of what he's expected to do in the minors this year. Which is still pretty damned impressive.

enterthesandman
01-27-06, 08:53 PM
9-8, 3.82, 148 IP, 114 K's 46 BB's, VORP of 24.3 which would be second only to RJ. As someone pointed out earlier, this is not a projection of what he'll do for the NYY this year, but the major league equivalency of what he's expected to do in the minors this year. Which is still pretty damned impressive.
Man, i'm so excited to see him I just wish they would call him up and say to hell with the consequences... *must be patient!*

enterthesandman
01-27-06, 08:55 PM
By the way, Andy Marte anyone?

38Special
01-27-06, 09:03 PM
With his command and stuff, Hughes could be ready to step into a rotation spot in late 06. However, given his lack of innings so far, it would serve no purpose to rush him. If he logs a full season of innings in 2006, he'll could ready by May/June of 2007 when he's 21.

CTSoxFan
01-27-06, 09:07 PM
By the way, Andy Marte anyone?

Doesn't matter...his elbow's hurt.

He was always pretty overrated, anyway.

jonnyc39
01-27-06, 09:19 PM
With his command and stuff, Hughes could be ready to step into a rotation spot in late 06. However, given his lack of innings so far, it would serve no purpose to rush him. If he logs a full season of innings in 2006, he'll could ready by May/June of 2007 when he's 21.
I'd agree. If Hughes were on the DRays, I'd guess we would see him next season. On a team like the Yankees, there is NO reason to rush a 21 year old into the majors. None. Especially, since at the end of 06, he will have likely already pitched a full mL season. You aren't going to get his best stuff at the ML level when his IP are higher than he's ever done before.

lem
01-27-06, 09:37 PM
I'd agree. If Hughes were on the DRays, I'd guess we would see him next season.

See him next season? The Rays already showed their unwillingness to do so that early with Delmon Young.

jonnyc39
01-27-06, 10:10 PM
See him next season? The Rays already showed their unwillingness to do so that early with Delmon Young.
Wonder why Kazmir made 32 starts then.

38Special
01-28-06, 12:18 AM
Here's some more rookie projections to show the quality of their minor league projections

Robinson Cano
2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389
Real 2005: .297/.320/.458

Willy Taveras
2005 PECOTA: .252/.330/.334
Real 2005: .291/.325/.341

Clint Barmes
2005 PECOTA: .272/.315/.424
Real 2005: .289/.330/.434

Ryan Howard
2005 PECOTA: .259/.341/.508
Real 2005: .288/.356/.567

Jonny Gomes
2005 PECOTA: .265/.366/.491
Real 2005: .282/.372/.534

Garrett Atkins
2005 PECOTA: .287/.354/.461
Real 2005: .287/.347/.426

Dan Johnson
2005 PECOTA: .259/.343/.445
Real 2005: .275/.355/.451

Ryan Langerhans
2005 PECOTA: .265/.357/.456
Real 2005: .267/.348/.426

Russ Adams
2005 PECOTA: .268/.338/.396
Real 2005: .256/.325/.383

Jeremy Reed
2005 PECOTA: .286/.353/.423
Real 2005: .254/.322/.352

Mark Teahen
2005 PECOTA: .251/.322/.375
Real 2005: .246/.309/.376

Nick Swisher
2005 PECOTA: .244/.351/.423
Real 2005: .236/.322/.446


My conclusion: Despite my pessimism when it comes to their progression in the late 20s/early 30s, their progression from minors to majors seems to work very well with the sampling I used, while some were off by alot (Cano and Reed), most were pretty damn close, especially when you consider how the AVG is pretty flukey, and once you start ranging the numbers up and down by 5-10 points most of the numbers line up pretty close.

I'll do the rookie pitcher projections tomorrow :)

JapanJobbers
01-28-06, 01:11 AM
Only 175 ip? I know he throws really fircking hard but has he had any arm problems yet?

The M's will probably start him as their 5th starter so he can be skipped a few times. It doesn't seem that they want him to go above 200 innings this year.

Saxmania
01-28-06, 01:40 AM
IF the value of these things is only as accurate as an "over/under" why even bother pretending that they accurately predict future performance

I guarantee you that if there was a futures market for baseball players performances, the people who tout these prediction systems actually put their money where thier mouths are, they would all be bankrupt

I don't think it is meant to be an accurate predictor, any more than forumers on this site get released if they forecast Giambi to hit .250/.340/.350 last year. It's a tool for using past performance to suggest what, on the basis of other players' career paths, is seen as the most likely performance level for a player in the future.

If there was a futures market for baseball players performances, these people would probably do pretty well, although not as well as those who used some scouting in addition to statistical analysis. Some of the posts following yours demonstrate that.

Be seeing you,

Saxmania

CoyoteYankee
01-28-06, 03:03 AM
Yes. Tony Womack: .247/.285/.305, -8.7 VORP

This is so wrong. Womack is actually going to have a negative AVG, OBP and SLG also. First in history. :P

Workhorse --- Your signature cracks me up! :lol:

Workhorse
01-28-06, 08:25 AM
This is so wrong. Womack is actually going to have a negative AVG, OBP and SLG also. First in history. :P

Workhorse --- Your signature cracks me up! :lol:

This Red Sox offseason has been high comedy to say the least.

And it's even funnier that they could be pretty good in 2006, despite all the fumbling and bumbling.

Jace
01-28-06, 12:24 PM
I'll do the rookie pitcher projections tomorrow :)

Its tomorrow! Rookie Pitcher projections please

lurkerMctroll
01-28-06, 12:37 PM
Any Jeremy Reed?

I'd also like to know what Choo Freeman is going to do next year.

38Special
01-28-06, 01:14 PM
Its tomorrow! Rookie Pitcher projections please
There's lots of artifacts on the image but its the best I can do to minimize the file size

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/9947/pecota9nq.jpg

PECOTA definitely does a very poor job of doing the HR rates. If those had been much more accurate, the ERA numbers likely would have been alot closer.

Jace
01-28-06, 02:02 PM
PECOTA definitely does a very poor job of doing the HR rates. If those had been much more accurate, the ERA numbers likely would have been alot closer.

Yeah, the HR predicted rate is above for every single pitcher. Thats actually hard to do, its like steroids testing messed them up or something. I wonder if their league HR rate was much higher than the actual rate.

RhodyYanksFan
01-28-06, 03:16 PM
What does PECOTA stand for?

pedromartinezfan
01-28-06, 03:19 PM
Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

Johnny O
01-29-06, 10:58 AM
The prediction line, which is really just the average of all possible projected outcomes, isn't meant to be interpreted without including the breakout, improve, collapse and attrition rates.

The BP annuals have in-depth explanations of how PECOTA works, there might be something on the website too.

ShaneTravis
01-29-06, 11:04 AM
Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

Just sort of rolls off the tongue.

PaulieIsAwesome
01-29-06, 11:25 AM
The M's will probably start him as their 5th starter so he can be skipped a few times. It doesn't seem that they want him to go above 200 innings this year.

Specifically, I've read that they want to make sure that his total innings (including spring training) don't exceed 200. Good call, I think. They're going to suck no matter what, so let the kid develop some more, until they're ready to not suck.

Jersey Yankee
01-29-06, 11:31 AM
Even though it might've been mentioned earlier, where's the link to all these stats? I only see this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/

pedromartinezfan
01-29-06, 12:19 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?context=6&category=true

Jersey Yankee
01-29-06, 01:07 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?context=6&category=true
Sorry, I'd meant player stats that have been quoted, not glossary stats definitions.

enterthesandman
01-29-06, 02:40 PM
There's lots of artifacts on the image but its the best I can do to minimize the file size

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/9947/pecota9nq.jpg

PECOTA definitely does a very poor job of doing the HR rates. If those had been much more accurate, the ERA numbers likely would have been alot closer.
hint, save a file as a PNG and you won't get artifacts :)

Spiker101
01-29-06, 06:07 PM
Doesn't matter...his elbow's hurt.

He was always pretty overrated, anyway.

I guess everyone around here has lost their sense of humor. I just wanted you to know I haven't. I laughed out loud, and after my alma mater fell to OU last night, I needed the laugh. Thanks.:D

CTSoxFan
01-30-06, 01:16 PM
I guess everyone around here has lost their sense of humor. I just wanted you to know I haven't. I laughed out loud, and after my alma mater fell to OU last night, I needed the laugh. Thanks.:D

Always nice when someone notices. ;)

JeffWeaverFan
01-31-06, 08:12 PM
Have we gotten Alex Gonzalez's prediction?

CTSoxFan
02-02-06, 02:15 PM
Have we gotten Alex Gonzalez's prediction?

.260/.310/.435, with a VORP of 13.7.

Given the givens, if the guy fields anywhere near his reputation, I guess I could live with these numbers until the cavalry gets there.

scull567
02-02-06, 04:49 PM
.260/.310/.435, with a VORP of 13.7.

Their projection was for him playing in Pro Player Stadium, not Fenway. That will change his projection quite a bit. Hopefully they update it.

Jace
02-02-06, 05:12 PM
Their projection was for him playing in Pro Player Stadium, not Fenway. That will change his projection quite a bit. Hopefully they update it.

His career slugging is .391 and he slugged .368 last year (after testing positive for steroids). The .310 OBP and the .435 slg are equivalent to his numbers in his career year. Why are they predicting a spike?

Prickly Pete
02-02-06, 05:27 PM
His career slugging is .391 and he slugged .368 last year (after testing positive for steroids).
When did Alex Gonzalez test positive for steroids?

CTSoxFan
02-02-06, 05:32 PM
Their projection was for him playing in Pro Player Stadium, not Fenway. That will change his projection quite a bit. Hopefully they update it.

Sorry, I should have made clear...this is actually his EqAVG/EqOBP/EqSLG projection, which should be park-neutral. Presumably, Fenway will jack up his power numbers slightly (doubles) and possibly his OBP just a tad, but it probably won't make a dramatic difference.

CTSoxFan
02-02-06, 05:34 PM
When did Alex Gonzalez test positive for steroids?

It was the other Alex Gonzalez who tested positive (at least according to this guy (http://redsoxdiary.blogspot.com/2006/01/from-0-to-60.html)).

JeffWeaverFan
02-02-06, 05:54 PM
Speaking of steroids and Alex Gonzalez, I found this an interesting read. (It also involves Lowell).

http://www.netshrine.com/2003Marlins.html

CTSoxFan
02-02-06, 06:54 PM
Speaking of steroids and Alex Gonzalez, I found this an interesting read. (It also involves Lowell).

http://www.netshrine.com/2003Marlins.html

This part was curious:

Was it something about the ballpark in Florida? Did something there change over the years? Well, according to the Bill James Baseball Handbooks from 2003 through 2006, the Marlins' park “power” index was about the same each year - in that it's always been a below average park for homeruns:
Florida Marlins – Dolphins Stadium HR Index

<TABLE class=MsoTableGrid style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 480; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 59.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=79>
Season

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 1in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=96>
HR Index

</TD></TR><TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 1"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 59.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top align=middle width=79>2002 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 1in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top align=middle width=96>80 </TD></TR><TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 1"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 59.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=79>
2003

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 1in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=96>
77

</TD></TR><TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 2"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 59.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=79>
2004

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 1in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=96>
97

</TD></TR><TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 59.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=79>
2005

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; WIDTH: 1in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=top width=96>
78

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Does he really think the power index was "about the same each year" when it very clearly spikes by almost 25% in one of the two years he's claiming there's an "unexplained" leap in power among three players?

Jace
02-02-06, 07:50 PM
When did Alex Gonzalez test positive for steroids?

You know, I was thinking of Alex Sanchez. Tampa Bay, not Florida. My bad. I still don't really understand the projection, but hey, I learned something.

JeffWeaverFan
02-03-06, 05:13 PM
Does he really think the power index was "about the same each year" when it very clearly spikes by almost 25% in one of the two years he's claiming there's an "unexplained" leap in power among three players?
In the very next part he showed how power numbers were increased in 2004 all across the NL, so that could be the reason.

pedromartinezfan
02-07-06, 03:58 PM
Now the PECOTA cards are updated with percentiles, similiar players, 5 year forecasts, and a whole lot of amazing new stuff including "valuations."

Fabien Brandy
02-07-06, 04:31 PM
Baseball Prospectus has a two-part interview with Mark Newman that goes in-depth on the Yankees. Is there a thread anywhere that covers it?

Minime
03-19-06, 07:51 AM
How about Derrek Lee?

ojo
03-20-06, 11:32 AM
How about Derrek Lee?


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=755><TBODY><TR class=dkgrey><TD class=left>Year</TD><TD>PA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA)</TD><TD>R (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=R)</TD><TD>2B (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=B2)</TD><TD>3B (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=B3)</TD><TD>HR (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR)</TD><TD>RBI (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RBI)</TD><TD>BB (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB)</TD><TD>SO (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SO)</TD><TD>SB (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB)</TD><TD>CS (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cs)</TD><TD>SPD (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SPD)</TD><TD>AVG (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG)</TD><TD>OBP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP)</TD><TD>SLG (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG)</TD><TD>MLVr (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=MLVr)</TD><TD>AVG (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EQAVG)</TD><TD>OBP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EQOBP)</TD><TD>SLG (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EQSLG)</TD><TD>EqA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EqA)</TD><TD>VORP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=VORP)</TD><TD>Defense (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=Defense)</TD><TD>WARP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP-1)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=left>2006 (age 30)</TD><TD>663</TD><TD>112</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>113</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>116</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>.298</TD><TD>.384</TD><TD>.570</TD><TD>.282</TD><TD>.299</TD><TD>.385</TD><TD>.579</TD><TD>.312</TD><TD>51.1</TD><TD>154-1B 8</TD><TD>6.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Yankeeah
03-29-06, 11:08 AM
How do they determine defense? I'm looking at the book, and they have A-Rod as as a -5 for 2005, Bernie at only -3, and Womack at a 5 for 2nd base. They don't seem right to me.