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Jersey Yankee
10-31-05, 12:08 AM
According to SABR stats, who are the best defensive center fielders in:

1--2005;
2--2003-2005;
3--2001-2005?

I'm trying to guage how closely SABR stats relate to the regular world, as in people's love with guys like Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones.

Thx. :)

Wang's Groundballs
10-31-05, 11:21 AM
Based on what I've seen, I think it would probably go like this:

1.) Aaron Rowand or maybe Jeremy Reed
2.) Mark Kotsay or Mike Cameron
3.) Mike Cameron

Andruw Jones has lost a lot on defense the last year or two.

justinvarnes
10-31-05, 11:31 AM
According to SABR stats, who are the best defensive center fielders in:

1--2005;
2--2003-2005;
3--2001-2005?

I'm trying to guage how closely SABR stats relate to the regular world, as in people's love with guys like Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones.

Thx. :)


well, I can't find UZR stats on most of these guys, but I compiled some Zone Rating stats on the "centerfielder" thread in "inside the lines"

Snatch Catch has done some useful work in UZR for a Mark Kotsay thread.

between those 2 sources you should be able to find most of what you are looking for.

Or someone who is smarter and has more time than me, may be able to post a comparison here for you.

the idea is that UZR is considered as the best "SABR" defensive stat. It is by no means all-inclusive as defensive alignment, adjacent fielders, throwing errors, etc. aren't truly factored in, but it does give you a sense of how many outs this guy will make on average vs. that guy.

So, look up who you are curious about and factor in their UZR ratings for the past few years (one year isn't enough to get a solid number, IMO.) and VOILA..you'll have an idea as to whether Hunter is as valuable in Center as Andruw, Bernie, Edmonds, Pierre..etc.

PaulieIsAwesome
10-31-05, 01:55 PM
Based on what I've seen, I think it would probably go like this:

1.) Aaron Rowand or maybe Jeremy Reed
2.) Mark Kotsay or Mike Cameron
3.) Mike Cameron

Andruw Jones has lost a lot on defense the last year or two.

Actually, Jay Payton, even though he moves around a lot and hardly qualifies as an everyday centerfielder, might be the very best over 2001-2005 in terms of performance per game (though when you factor in how much time players play in center, it's pretty clearly Cameron.)

Payton's UZR from 2000-2003 (http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html) was +14, and his "Range" (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/measuring-range/) in 2004 was a league best +39. BPro doesn't like him as much, but gave his work last year with SD as +14, and liked him a good amount in Left and Right this year.

Snatch Catch
11-01-05, 12:29 PM
Based on what I've seen, I think it would probably go like this:

1.) Aaron Rowand or maybe Jeremy Reed
2.) Mark Kotsay or Mike Cameron
3.) Mike Cameron

Andruw Jones has lost a lot on defense the last year or two.

http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?t=84930

I agree that Jones has lost a step, but I think that he was so far superior to everyone else when he was great, that him losing a step isn't everything it's cracked up to be.

Jones, Kotsay, Cameron, Rowand, and Patterson are all near the top of the list.

Most of you guys know my opinion of Kotsay, and I'm inclined to say that he is and has been the most underrated defensive player over the past 5 years or so. To top everything off, he has a strong, accurate arm.

He is that good on defense, and he is no worse than the second best defensive CF in baseball.

boo_427
11-01-05, 04:10 PM
Andruw Jones has lost a lot on defense the last year or two.

Losing at a step at 28? Very bold statements.

Considering over the last seven years he has averaged over 400 put-outs a season. This year was 365.

I am having trouble finding this stat for the entire league, ie, who led the league in put-outs.

THEBOSS84
11-01-05, 04:22 PM
http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?t=84930

I agree that Jones has lost a step, but I think that he was so far superior to everyone else when he was great, that him losing a step isn't everything it's cracked up to be.

Jones, Kotsay, Cameron, Rowand, and Patterson are all near the top of the list.

Most of you guys know my opinion of Kotsay, and I'm inclined to say that he is and has been the most underrated defensive player over the past 5 years or so. To top everything off, he has a strong, accurate arm.

He is that good on defense, and he is no worse than the second best defensive CF in baseball.

Its a shame corey patterson's obp is so horrendous

The Cubbies would trade him for a few B/C level prospects at this point since they have this great propect named Felix Pie.

Snatch Catch
11-01-05, 08:46 PM
Its a shame corey patterson's obp is so horrendous

The Cubbies would trade him for a few B/C level prospects at this point since they have this great propect named Felix Pie.

I had Pie in my avatar for several days in July...

yanksphan
11-01-05, 10:22 PM
I had Pie in my avatar for several days in July...

:roflmao:

ppa79
11-02-05, 08:38 AM
If you had to rank these CFers in defensive abilities in their prime and all 100% healthy, in what order would you put them? Griffey Jr, A. Jones, Mays, and Mantle

I would probably rank them like this:

Mays
Jones
Griffey Jr.
Mantle

Could Ty Cobb, Dimaggio, or Puckett be on the same level with these guys?

kan_t
11-02-05, 08:57 AM
If you had to rank these CFers in defensive abilities in their prime and all 100% healthy, in what order would you put them? Griffey Jr, A. Jones, Mays, and Mantle

I would probably rank them like this:

Mays
Jones
Griffey Jr.
Mantle

Could Ty Cobb, Dimaggio, or Puckett be on the same level with these guys?
You forget Tris Speaker.

Jersey Yankee
11-02-05, 02:24 PM
If you had to rank these CFers in defensive abilities in their prime and all 100% healthy, in what order would you put them? Griffey Jr, A. Jones, Mays, and Mantle

I would probably rank them like this:

Mays
Jones
Griffey Jr.
Mantle

Could Ty Cobb, Dimaggio, or Puckett be on the same level with these guys?
I'm curious, are these tradition ratings, such as what historians have seen, people known to have been great, reputation, etc, or are these SABR rankings? The reason I posted here was to try finding out who amongst these guys were SABR-metrically the best guys.

My feeling is that if someone like Mays were only slightly better than Rowand or Hunter, then that may say something about the stats. I'm mostly trying to establish how close these UZR and other stats relate to how fans would normally rate the same players.

Thx. :)

yanksphan
11-03-05, 09:32 PM
Losing at a step at 28? Very bold statements.

Considering over the last seven years he has averaged over 400 put-outs a season. This year was 365.

I am having trouble finding this stat for the entire league, ie, who led the league in put-outs.

Andruw Jones' UZR for 2005 was -1

Looks like he may have lost a couple steps actually...

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/espn9/

post #22

Prickly Pete
11-03-05, 09:54 PM
I'm really surprised at how bad Kotsay came out in UZR this year. His -22 made one of the worst defensive CFers in baseball by that metric.

Irabu's Son
11-04-05, 02:18 AM
Ichiro could probably top this list if he played CF where he belongs.

ppa79
11-04-05, 08:36 AM
I'm really surprised at how bad Kotsay came out in UZR this year. His -22 made one of the worst defensive CFers in baseball by that metric.


Andruw Jones' UZR for 2005 was -1

Looks like he may have lost a couple steps actually...

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/espn9/

post #22

One year Kotsay and Andruw Jones are awesome defensively and the next according to UZR they have lost a lot. If these numbers vary like this year to year do they really mean a whole lot? How did Edmonds jump to +13 when he was in the negatives last year? I'm so confused now.

justinvarnes
11-04-05, 09:11 AM
Don't be confused...UZR is a very flawed statistic for several reasons. Most importantly, it can vary DRASTICALLY from year to year. Jeter's UZR 2 years ago was -40, I believe.

I'll take that cue to point out the other major flaw: the "zones" aren't as neat and specific as one might think. For example, defensivley a CF usually shifts fairly far toward left field for a righty pull hitter, in which case a line drive to right center is his "responsibility" that goes for a double or triple. Also, a CF in one year may have an abnormally large # of fly balls to his zones. Whereas a similar CF may have more line drives that will sail to one spot (the same spot that the lazy fly ball lands for CF #1) or flares that don't stay up long enough (whereas CF #1 may enjoy more air time on those balls). Parks, pitching staff, bad luck..it's all hard to factor in...

Hence Jeter's defense got magically alot worse with a poor 3B, and magically alot better with A-Rod at 3B, who has more range and first step quickness than most 3B's. Another example: Check out Tejada's #'s after Chavez was no longer playing with him.

Not to mention there so many other factors that one defensive stat can not account for : outs by virtue of a throw, bases saved by a player NOT taking an extra based due to reputation, etc.

That being said, over the course of 3-5 years, UZR should balance out and make those things becomes less of a factor.

This is why defense is so hard to quantify.

Snatch Catch
11-07-05, 01:53 PM
I'm really surprised at how bad Kotsay came out in UZR this year. His -22 made one of the worst defensive CFers in baseball by that metric.

I think that he was greatly hampered by his back problems for most of the year.

boo_427
11-07-05, 03:43 PM
I think that he was greatly hampered by his back problems for most of the year.

Excuses....


Great point by Mr Varnes... accurately measuring defensive stats seems like a roller-coaster ride.

pedromartinezfan
11-07-05, 04:52 PM
2005: Jim Edmonds
All-time: Willie Mays
All-time per game: Andruw Jones. BY. FAR.

ojo
11-29-05, 11:54 AM
one day that kid in detroit, nook logan, will top this list.

effdamets
11-29-05, 02:17 PM
Don't be confused...UZR is a very flawed statistic for several reasons. Most importantly, it can vary DRASTICALLY from year to year. Jeter's UZR 2 years ago was -40, I believe.

I'll take that cue to point out the other major flaw: the "zones" aren't as neat and specific as one might think. For example, defensivley a CF usually shifts fairly far toward left field for a righty pull hitter, in which case a line drive to right center is his "responsibility" that goes for a double or triple. Also, a CF in one year may have an abnormally large # of fly balls to his zones. Whereas a similar CF may have more line drives that will sail to one spot (the same spot that the lazy fly ball lands for CF #1) or flares that don't stay up long enough (whereas CF #1 may enjoy more air time on those balls). Parks, pitching staff, bad luck..it's all hard to factor in...

Hence Jeter's defense got magically alot worse with a poor 3B, and magically alot better with A-Rod at 3B, who has more range and first step quickness than most 3B's. Another example: Check out Tejada's #'s after Chavez was no longer playing with him.

Not to mention there so many other factors that one defensive stat can not account for : outs by virtue of a throw, bases saved by a player NOT taking an extra based due to reputation, etc.

That being said, over the course of 3-5 years, UZR should balance out and make those things becomes less of a factor.

This is why defense is so hard to quantify.
Someone needs to mention this to "I Love Wang"....

First of all, it is impossible to judge defense with numbers, unlike judging offense (a-la... batting average). There are TOO MANY HUMAN FACTORS involved to put numbers up against, to have a "rating" defensively. I also think there are way too many people married to the "numbers". The best defensive rating system, by far and away, is.... MY EYES! Watching things like body movements, footwork, and shoulder positioning help me determine who is capable of playing their position properly. I learned some of these defensive dynamics from a friend of mine that was scout for the Rockies. So I rely on what I see on the field, not on a calculator.

And the thing that gets me, if this UZR was so great, how come the best rated players aren't walking away with the Gold Glove awards? For instance, I think 3 years ago, Jay Payton was the top rated centerfielder... Whoa!!! And now, Aaron Rowand, although I think he is a nice player, certainly to me, is not better than Jones, Hunter, Edmonds, or Logan (defensively). Are the numbers seeing something that the voters are not? Are the voters making the wrong choices on purpose?

A lot of the defensive 'rankings' are also a matter of opinion. People think that Timo Perez was a good outfielder with a strong arm. I thought the opposite, just from watching him. The only thing he did well was get the ball away quickly. Bad jumps and very poor footwork. Another guy is people think is really good, but I think otherwise, is Garret Anderson. If you watch this guy enough, you will see that his jumps are below average and he NEVER throws the ball on target. This to me makes him a below average outfielder. Now, do I want him in my lineup? Sure do, his bat more than makes up for his lack of defense. But on the whole, that is what needs to be measured more than anything. Is the balance of the player worth having him in the lineup? If his bad defense is determined to be hurting the team more than his offense is helping, and the Yankees are caught in that predicament right now.

Let's take a look at Bernie. If his production was, say, that of 2000 or 2001 (in that time frame +/- a year or 2) with 30 HR's and 110 RBI's, we may not be looking so hard for a centerfielder. But because Bernie's offense is no longer offsetting his defense, well, the hunt is on.

ojo
11-29-05, 04:26 PM
Someone needs to mention this to "I Love Wang"....

First of all, it is impossible to judge defense with numbers, unlike judging offense (a-la... batting average). There are TOO MANY HUMAN FACTORS involved to put numbers up against, to have a "rating" defensively. I also think there are way too many people married to the "numbers". The best defensive rating system, by far and away, is.... MY EYES! Watching things like body movements, footwork, and shoulder positioning help me determine who is capable of playing their position properly. I learned some of these defensive dynamics from a friend of mine that was scout for the Rockies. So I rely on what I see on the field, not on a calculator.

And the thing that gets me, if this UZR was so great, how come the best rated players aren't walking away with the Gold Glove awards? For instance, I think 3 years ago, Jay Payton was the top rated centerfielder... Whoa!!! And now, Aaron Rowand, although I think he is a nice player, certainly to me, is not better than Jones, Hunter, Edmonds, or Logan (defensively). Are the numbers seeing something that the voters are not? Are the voters making the wrong choices on purpose?

A lot of the defensive 'rankings' are also a matter of opinion. People think that Timo Perez was a good outfielder with a strong arm. I thought the opposite, just from watching him. The only thing he did well was get the ball away quickly. Bad jumps and very poor footwork. Another guy is people think is really good, but I think otherwise, is Garret Anderson. If you watch this guy enough, you will see that his jumps are below average and he NEVER throws the ball on target. This to me makes him a below average outfielder. Now, do I want him in my lineup? Sure do, his bat more than makes up for his lack of defense. But on the whole, that is what needs to be measured more than anything. Is the balance of the player worth having him in the lineup? If his bad defense is determined to be hurting the team more than his offense is helping, and the Yankees are caught in that predicament right now.

Let's take a look at Bernie. If his production was, say, that of 2000 or 2001 (in that time frame +/- a year or 2) with 30 HR's and 110 RBI's, we may not be looking so hard for a centerfielder. But because Bernie's offense is no longer offsetting his defense, well, the hunt is on.

bernie would have to hit .450 to balance what he doesn't get to in the field.

effdamets
11-29-05, 04:35 PM
bernie would have to hit .450 to balance what he doesn't get to in the field.
I understand what you mean.... Bernie was always a lax player. It's worse now than ever. However, it is very sad to see a player with such pride, diminish the way he has...

ojo
11-29-05, 07:41 PM
I understand what you mean.... Bernie was always a lax player. It's worse now than ever. However, it is very sad to see a player with such pride, diminish the way he has...

he's still the man in my book. he just couldn't hide his lack of 'instinct' once his body wore down some...

AMYanks
11-29-05, 08:00 PM
And now, Aaron Rowand, although I think he is a nice player, certainly to me, is not better than Jones, Hunter, Edmonds, or Logan (defensively).

Other than Edmonds, Rowand is better than all three of them.

For the last time, Jones is not near what he used to be. He's still good, but not elite, or not "all-time great" like he was a few years ago.

effdamets
11-29-05, 09:07 PM
he's still the man in my book. he just couldn't hide his lack of 'instinct' once his body wore down some...
Right on! I love Bernie too. We got to watch him grow up as a major leaguer. I remember when he replaced Roberto Kelly. I wasn't thrilled because I loved Bert at the time... Little did I know that Paul O'Neill was lurking in the wings!!!!! I never thought that Bernie would become the player he became. But then we as fans, came to rely on his excellent play and his clutch performances. He will be missed if he does not return to the Yankees!

Wang's Groundballs
11-30-05, 11:32 AM
First of all, it is impossible to judge defense with numbers, unlike judging offense (a-la... batting average).

You really expect people to take you seriously after posting something as ignorant as this?



The best defensive rating system, by far and away, is.... MY EYES! Watching things like body movements, footwork, and shoulder positioning help me determine who is capable of playing their position properly. I learned some of these defensive dynamics from a friend of mine that was scout for the Rockies. So I rely on what I see on the field, not on a calculator.

That's all fine and dandy, but I trust your eyes to accurately judge the majority of fielders as much as I'd trust my dead puppy.


And the thing that gets me, if this UZR was so great, how come the best rated players aren't walking away with the Gold Glove awards?

You're right, obviously gold glove awards are an accurate way to judge who's the best fielder. Who cares if they just pick the same guy year after year and will even pick a DH as a gold glove. They're based on what happens on the field, not paper god damnit!1111


For instance, I think 3 years ago, Jay Payton was the top rated centerfielder... Whoa!!! And now, Aaron Rowand, although I think he is a nice player, certainly to me, is not better than Jones, Hunter, Edmonds, or Logan (defensively).

He's much better than Jones, Hunter, and Edmonds at this point. All of them used to be great CF, and Hunter may still be depending on how he comes back from his injury, but Edmonds and Jones have both declined a lot.


Are the numbers seeing something that the voters are not? Are the voters making the wrong choices on purpose?

I'll take, "Voters are idiots for $500, Bob."


A lot of the defensive 'rankings' are also a matter of opinion. People think that Timo Perez was a good outfielder with a strong arm. I thought the opposite, just from watching him. The only thing he did well was get the ball away quickly. Bad jumps and very poor footwork. Another guy is people think is really good, but I think otherwise, is Garret Anderson. If you watch this guy enough, you will see that his jumps are below average and he NEVER throws the ball on target. This to me makes him a below average outfielder.

Funny, because I can't recall anyone in the sabr community ever considering either of these guys as good defenders...but carry on.


Now, do I want him in my lineup? Sure do, his bat more than makes up for his lack of defense.

How does his bat make up for it? By making more outs than anyone else?


But on the whole, that is what needs to be measured more than anything. Is the balance of the player worth having him in the lineup? If his bad defense is determined to be hurting the team more than his offense is helping, and the Yankees are caught in that predicament right now.

Let's take a look at Bernie. If his production was, say, that of 2000 or 2001 (in that time frame +/- a year or 2) with 30 HR's and 110 RBI's, we may not be looking so hard for a centerfielder. But because Bernie's offense is no longer offsetting his defense, well, the hunt is on.

Ummm, that's exactly why people quantify offense and defense.

effdamets
11-30-05, 11:52 AM
You really expect people to take you seriously after posting something as ignorant as this?




That's all fine and dandy, but I trust your eyes to accurately judge the majority of fielders as much as I'd trust my dead puppy.



You're right, obviously gold glove awards are an accurate way to judge who's the best fielder. Who cares if they just pick the same guy year after year and will even pick a DH as a gold glove. They're based on what happens on the field, not paper god damnit!1111



He's much better than Jones, Hunter, and Edmonds at this point. All of them used to be great CF, and Hunter may still be depending on how he comes back from his injury, but Edmonds and Jones have both declined a lot.



I'll take, "Voters are idiots for $500, Bob."



Funny, because I can't recall anyone in the sabr community ever considering either of these guys as good defenders...but carry on.



How does his bat make up for it? By making more outs than anyone else?



Ummm, that's exactly why people quantify offense and defense.
You're so cool and so knowledgeable. You should run for Captain of the Universe....

PaulieIsAwesome
11-30-05, 01:09 PM
You're so cool and so knowledgeable. You should run for Captain of the Universe....

You certainly showed him. He responds to your post with facts, reason, and rational discussion, and then you make fun of his post.

Maybe you should run for "Captain of the Universe."

rightfielder21
11-30-05, 01:16 PM
You certainly showed him. He responds to your post with facts, reason, and rational discussion, and then you make fun of his post.

Maybe you should run for "Captain of the Universe."

I'm actually amazed he has been here since 2002...

Prickly Pete
11-30-05, 03:34 PM
That's all fine and dandy, but I trust your eyes to accurately judge the majority of fielders as much as I'd trust my dead puppy.
Sorry to hear about your puppy.

And, oh yeah, I agree with everything else you said.

The idea that the best way to judge defense is with your eyes is astoundingly ludicrous.

Even forgetting about the obvious bias and subjectivity, there are all kinds of things you can't accurately gauge from watching baseball on TV. Most of the time, you can't tell where a player (especially an OFer) was positioned to begin with and you can't reliably judge the speed or spin on the ball either.

If you're sitting in the ballpark -- and have good seats, like a scout would -- you can better judge some of these things. But even if you're a season ticketholder and go to every game and take copious notes on the positioning of, say, Gary Sheffield, on every play, you still can't possibly know how he compares to every other rightfielder in the game, because you're only seeing the other guys a few times a year.

Every team has scouts that watch these games, and yet most teams (certainly the smart ones) are also working on ways to quantify and judge defense. There's no perfect system yet, but that doesn't mean the existing ones are useless.

I Love Wang
11-30-05, 04:26 PM
I vote for Wang's Groundballs over effdamets for "Captain of the Universe."

Snatch Catch
11-30-05, 06:19 PM
I vote for Wang's Groundballs over effdamets for "Captain of the Universe."

Agreed, but strictly for the reason that I don't want effdamets in charge of anything that requires rational decision making to exist.

BronxByTheBay
11-30-05, 09:34 PM
I'm writing this just so people will see my screen name in this sub-forum as the last post submitted and think I actually understand any of this sh*t.

Sam18
11-30-05, 10:44 PM
I'm writing this just so people will see my screen name in this sub-forum as the last post submitted and think I actually understand any of this sh*t.

HA!


...

BronxByTheBay
11-30-05, 10:55 PM
HA!


...

Bastard.