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View Full Version : Lofton's CF ZR higher than Beltran's



Pomp
10-04-04, 01:46 PM
Lofton: .899
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fielding?statsId=4789

Beltran: .892
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fielding?statsId=6132


Is Lofton really as bad defensively as some say he is?

WiffleWOOD
10-04-04, 02:50 PM
ZR is fairly poor as a metric. UZR is better.

Pomp
10-04-04, 03:00 PM
Originally posted by WiffleWOOD
ZR is fairly poor as a metric. UZR is better.

But even so, is Beltran's defense that much better than Lofton's?

Irony Of It All
10-04-04, 03:30 PM
Originally posted by Pomp


But even so, is Beltran's defense that much better than Lofton's?

I'd say so, not because Beltran is the great defender that everyone is making him out to be - last year he had a UZR of 7, which IMO, would make him about the 10th best CF in the majors last year.

Lofton, on the other hand, had a UZR of 3 (with the Cubs), which would make him about 14th in the majors. (I only consider players that played at least 65 games in CF to try and get at least a somewhat decent sample size. With the Pirates, however, he had a UZR of 0.

Another factor to take into consideration is DParmruns. Belltran in 2003 had a 4 in this category giving him 10 total defensive runs. Lofton had a 0 in this category (with the Cubs) giving him 4 total defensive runs. With the Pirtaes he had a 1 in DParmruns giving him 1 total defensive run with the Pirates.

Finally, NJASDJDH posted in another thread that all the date MGL has shown him suggest that players decline defensively the minute they make it to the big leagues. I've also heard that a decline in defense is usually more rapid than a decline in offense as well. Taking this into consideration, I think it's pretty fair to say that even if Beltran is not clearly the better defender this year, he almost certainly will be next year due almost entirely to the age of Lofton.

My only fear with signing Beltran to a longterm deal is that in a couple of years when he is no longer an above average CF - not as bad as Bernie is now though - and we have a clearly superior CF - hopefully Melky Cabrera - relegated to one of the corners so as not to offend Beltrans pride