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View Full Version : First Order Wins and EQA: Yanks way above expectations



WiffleWOOD
08-20-04, 10:13 AM
From BP this morning:

Based on Runs Scored and Runs Against, this is by no means the worst Yankee team of recent vintage ("recent vintage" being defined as starting in 1996). That distinction would fall to the 2000 bunch who projected to win only 85 games but wound up with 87 and a World Championship. This group is projecting to score and allow at a rate of about 90 wins (using the very basic First Order Wins. And while all Yankee teams of recent memory save for the '97 squad outperformed their run situation, this version is on pace to outlast them all. The previous high was six by the 2001 and 1998 teams. This club, if all things remain equal, is looking at 12 wins above projection.

Add this to the list of factors against the Yankees, despite their winning ways: Alex Rodriguez is having one of the worst years of his career. This is full season number nine and only 1997's EqA of .284 is worse than this year's .298. He could blow past 1998 and 1999 (.300 and .302 respectively) with a late surge, but this is still a good 20 points below his previous four-year average. Speaking of depressed EqAs, Gary Sheffield is experiencing his lowest since 1993 (when adjusted for season). Derek Jeter, at .263, is flat out having his worst year ever by any measure. Three other Yankees who have had a lot of playing time this year are also meeting with substandard EqA results:

Jason Giambi: worst ever
Bernie Williams: worst since 1993
Kenny Lofton: second-worst of his career

Granted, this group's worst and near-worst is better than the best that many folks have to offer, but I'd told you that the Yankees would be suffering this kind of degradation, you'd assume they'd be a lot worse off than they are.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3366

Irony Of It All
08-20-04, 10:45 PM
A-Rod's and Jeter's performances thus far have been huge surprises. I mean I expected a decline in some of A-Rod's stats, but you'd think he'd be able to replicate those that take park factors into account. This is probably just an off year for him, but it's still disappointing none the less. Jeter on the other hand I have no idea about. His plate discipline has been horrible this year, his defense greatly improved for him, and his highest ISO since 2001. On the bright side is the fact that we should expect more or at least equal production from several different positions next year.