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View Full Version : Vote for Joba vs Hughes vs the field



delv
02-18-10, 08:03 PM
I know there are plenty of threads discussing this, but I thought it'd be nice to have a poll.

Forget the pen.
Forget innings limits.
Forget AAA and options and arbitration.

Who do YOU want to fill that 5-spot?

THEBOSS84
02-18-10, 08:21 PM
Joba.

CallOfTheCrow
02-18-10, 08:22 PM
After all these "Joba Rules", it'd be stupid to throw him in the pen now that he's ready for a full season's workload.

I know you said forget innings, but it is important to note this. I vote Joba.

delv
02-18-10, 08:23 PM
Joba at his best is electrifying, IMO.

groovitude
02-18-10, 08:30 PM
Joba at his best is electrifying, IMO.Hughes is, too, but in an entirely different way. Hughes reminds me, in a way, of Mussina; it's pin-point control and a sick curveball that puts him beyond just another guy with good mid-90's heat. These are guys that'll live on the black when they have their stuff; and when they don't have it all there, they can still beat you.

You can't tell me you don't find this electrifying (this is his last MLB start):
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4729453

NYYRules#1
02-18-10, 08:31 PM
Joba Louis Chamberlain.

He's the best option in terms of effectiveness, has no innings limit, and it'd be epically stupid to throw him in the pen after years of slowly building up his innings.

Joba will be great this year.

YESSIR!
02-18-10, 08:41 PM
I want them both to start. It's almost impossible for me to choose one given all of the different circumstances. But raw emotion tells me the guy should be Hughes.

delv
02-18-10, 08:46 PM
Hughes is, too, but in an entirely different way. Hughes reminds me, in a way, of Mussina; it's pin-point control and a sick curveball that puts him beyond just another guy with good mid-90's heat. These are guys that'll live on the black when they have their stuff; and when they don't have it all there, they can still beat you.

You can't tell me you don't find this electrifying (this is his last MLB start):
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4729453

? Hughes averaged 93.6 mph last year, and that's including his time in the pen, which undoubtedly raises that average. He's 91-92 mph.

I'm A Wenner!
02-18-10, 08:59 PM
He still throws 95 or 96 sometimes.

Matsui55
02-18-10, 09:01 PM
Joba at his best is electrifying, IMO.

The problem is that he throws too many pitches to be a great SP. See here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=chambjo03&t=p&year=

Every once in a while, he has one of those games that makes you want to keep in him the rotation- but the majority of his starts, he's pushing 100 pitches in the 5th inning.

In fact, in 2009, by my count, he had exactly 5 starts where he made it more than 6.1 IP. He also had at least 9 starts where he threw more than 90 pitches, but only went 5.1 IP or less. On the other hand, he had 15 starts where he threw at least 95 pitches, and 5 more where he threw at least 91 pitches. So it wasn't that he had pitch count limits- he simply was VERY inefficient.

As a contrast, Andy Pettitte, who is really no longer a great pitcher, but a nice #3 SP had 12 starts of 6.1 IP or more (with at least 2 more of 6.1), without throwing significantly more pitches.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=pettian01&t=p&year=

Unless Joba can become at least as efficient as Pettitte, he is a strain on your bullpen all season.

IMO, this battle for the #5 SP will come down to who is more efficient in their pitches and IP. In short- the Yanks are looking for the guy who goes out there and gives them at least 6+ on a REGULAR basis, rather than 6 TOTAL starts (out of 30+ starts) going more than 6.

I think that if Hughes has an effective change to give him an "out" pitch to lefties, he is the likeliest #5 SP.

delv
02-18-10, 09:01 PM
He still throws 95 or 96 sometimes.

says the man who voted for Joba

delv
02-18-10, 09:02 PM
The problem is that he throws too many pitches to be a great SP. See here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=chambjo03&t=p&year=

Every once in a while, he has one of those games that makes you want to keep in him the rotation- but the majority of his starts, he's pushing 100 pitches in the 5th inning.

In fact, in 2009, by my count, he had exactly 5 starts where he made it more than 6.1 IP. He also had at least 9 starts where he threw more than 90 pitches, but only went 5.1 IP or less. On the other hand, he had 15 starts where he threw at least 95 pitches, and 5 more where he threw at least 91 pitches. So it wasn't that he had pitch count limits- he simply was VERY inefficient.

As a contrast, Andy Pettitte, who is really no longer a great pitcher, but a nice #3 SP had 12 starts of 6.1 IP or more (with at least 2 more of 6.1), without throwing significantly more pitches.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=pettian01&t=p&year=

Unless Joba can become at least as efficient as Pettitte, he is a strain on your bullpen all season.

IMO, this battle for the #5 SP will come down to who is more efficient in their pitches and IP. In short- the Yanks are looking for the guy who goes out there and gives them at least 6+ on a REGULAR basis, rather than 6 TOTAL starts (out of 30+ starts) going more than 6.

I think that if Hughes has an effective change to give him an "out" pitch to lefties, he is the likeliest #5 SP.

too many words...

Matsui55
02-18-10, 09:03 PM
He still throws 95 or 96 sometimes.

The radar gun reading won't decide the battle- it will come down to command and secondary stuff.

I'm A Wenner!
02-18-10, 09:09 PM
The radar gun reading won't decide the battle- it will come down to command and secondary stuff.


says the man who voted for Joba

Neither of these things matter. I'm just supporting the contention that he can, in fact, throw in the mid-90s.

HelloNewman
02-18-10, 09:12 PM
After all these "Joba Rules", it'd be stupid to throw him in the pen now that he's ready for a full season's workload.Pretty much my take.

delv
02-18-10, 09:12 PM
Neither of these things matter. I'm just supporting the contention that he can, in fact, throw in the mid-90s.

don't take me so seriously. I know the logical requisites for implication, man.

I'm A Wenner!
02-18-10, 09:16 PM
don't take me so seriously. I know the logical requisites for implication, man.

Is this a euphemism? I hope so.

delv
02-18-10, 09:18 PM
Is this a euphemism? I hope so.

what are you saying? who's the one speaking indirectly?

I'm A Wenner!
02-18-10, 09:19 PM
what are you saying? who's the one speaking indirectly?

Wouldn't you like to know?

delv
02-18-10, 09:21 PM
ignore list!

groovitude
02-18-10, 09:31 PM
? Hughes averaged 93.6 mph last year, and that's including his time in the pen, which undoubtedly raises that average. He's 91-92 mph.I'm considering about 94-96 a mid-90s fastball. He averaged almost 94, which, granted, is partially a factor of the bullpen; but he topped out at 93.9 mph in his second-to-last start, for example, so it's not like he doesn't touch 94 during a start.

YESSIR!
02-18-10, 09:33 PM
After all these "Joba Rules", it'd be stupid to throw him in the pen now that he's ready for a full season's workload.

I know you said forget innings, but it is important to note this. I vote Joba.

I agree with this, and it makes Joba's case that much stronger. But at the same time, relegating Phil to the bullpen for a full season is going to be equally damaging in terms of his innings. Therefore, I try not to place too much emphasis on the innings totals. Phil will throw 170+ this year if given the opportunity. Both guys will have their development as starters significantly hampered if they spend a year in the pen. What happened in the past in terms of what the Yankees did to build up Joba shouldn't be a huge factor in this specific situation where it's him vs. Hughes only for the 5th spot, because the downside of placing Phil in the pen is virtually same as the reverse.

Yankee Fan in Boston
02-18-10, 09:34 PM
The problem is that he throws too many pitches to be a great SP. See here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=chambjo03&t=p&year=

Every once in a while, he has one of those games that makes you want to keep in him the rotation- but the majority of his starts, he's pushing 100 pitches in the 5th inning.

In fact, in 2009, by my count, he had exactly 5 starts where he made it more than 6.1 IP. He also had at least 9 starts where he threw more than 90 pitches, but only went 5.1 IP or less. On the other hand, he had 15 starts where he threw at least 95 pitches, and 5 more where he threw at least 91 pitches. So it wasn't that he had pitch count limits- he simply was VERY inefficient.

As a contrast, Andy Pettitte, who is really no longer a great pitcher, but a nice #3 SP had 12 starts of 6.1 IP or more (with at least 2 more of 6.1), without throwing significantly more pitches.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=pettian01&t=p&year=

Unless Joba can become at least as efficient as Pettitte, he is a strain on your bullpen all season.

IMO, this battle for the #5 SP will come down to who is more efficient in their pitches and IP. In short- the Yanks are looking for the guy who goes out there and gives them at least 6+ on a REGULAR basis, rather than 6 TOTAL starts (out of 30+ starts) going more than 6.

I think that if Hughes has an effective change to give him an "out" pitch to lefties, he is the likeliest #5 SP.

He was 23 last season -- to compare him to someone like Pettitte is a bit unrealistic. Is this not something he could potentially improve on?

You are also cherry-picking the numbers a bit - Joba had 13 starts where he went at least 6 and, for your #5 starter, that's pretty good -- I'd hardly call it a strain on the bullpen... particularly when he had some starts toward the end of the year that were predetermined to be shortened outings.

Rocketbooster
02-18-10, 09:38 PM
Phil.........no matter what Eiland and Joe say, there is no way that Mitre, Gaudiin or Aceves are going to be the 5th starters unless Phil and Joba bomb completely.

Matsui55
02-18-10, 10:39 PM
He was 23 last season -- to compare him to someone like Pettitte is a bit unrealistic. Is this not something he could potentially improve on?

You are also cherry-picking the numbers a bit - Joba had 13 starts where he went at least 6 and, for your #5 starter, that's pretty good -- I'd hardly call it a strain on the bullpen... particularly when he had some starts toward the end of the year that were predetermined to be shortened outings.

The Pettitte comparison was intentional- Pettitte is nothing more than a league average SP at this point in his career. Yet, Joba's command is so bad, even ignoring the entire month of September and most of August, he hindered his own starts.

The Yanks simply cannot ask their bullpen to continue to bail Joba out to the tune of 3-4 IP each time he takes the mound. Even a league average pitcher like Pettitte gets more out of his pitches than Joba- and Pettitte's stuff is nowhere near as good as Joba's.

You can take the rose-colored glasses view that Joba can improve- but the reality is that his command is weak and makes his outstanding stuff play DOWN as a SP. That is why he is so much more effective in relief- he can limit himself to 2 pitches and pitch counts don't matter because he won't go more than an inning or two anyway.

While those who say that you want you best pitchers throwing 180-200 IP, rather than 60-70 in the pen are absolutely correct, Joba is NOT one of the Yanks 5 best STARTING pitchers with his poor command. Unless and until he shows command of his pitchers, he may be one the Yanks best ARMS, but not a PITCHER. There is a big difference between the two.

yankee82093
02-18-10, 10:46 PM
I'm considering about 94-96 a mid-90s fastball. He averaged almost 94, which, granted, is partially a factor of the bullpen; but he topped out at 93.9 mph in his second-to-last start, for example, so it's not like he doesn't touch 94 during a start.

"Mid-nineties" and "touches mid-nineties" are two very different things. A starter with an average fastball can touch mid-nineties. Anyone who sits at least 91 can touch 94 occasionally. Hughes averaged 91.7 as a starter.

Sitting mid-nineities is far more impressive.

Principessa21
02-18-10, 11:10 PM
Every once in a while, he has one of those games that makes you want to keep in him the rotation- but the majority of his starts, he's pushing 100 pitches in the 5th inning.
He made 12 starts with at least 100 pitches in 2009. 10 of those 12 were appearances of 5.2 IP or more. He also pitched into the 6th inning or deeper 5 times with fewer than 100 pitches.

While I agree with you that the next step will be for Joba to get more efficient, & there were many starts where his ineffectiveness didn't allow him to reach 100 pitches (which would've likely come prior to the 6th inning) it's far too simplistic to just dismiss him as an inefficient pitcher. He's only in his age-24 season, and may not be yet even entering his prime. I personally believe he's going to be much closer to a 3.18 xFIP ('08) than a 4.56 ('09), in terms of true talent level.

I'm not sure whether I think Joba or Phil is the better choice for the rotation next season, but I know about 29 teams that would kill to have to make that decision. And knowing the way pitchers tend to get injured, it's a pretty safe bet that both Hughes & Chamberlain will log significant innings as starters in 2010.

yankee82093
02-18-10, 11:17 PM
He made 12 starts with at least 100 pitches in 2009. 10 of those 12 were appearances of 5.2 IP or more. He also pitched into the 6th inning or deeper 5 times with fewer than 100 pitches.

While I agree with you that the next step will be for Joba to get more efficient, & there were many starts where his ineffectiveness didn't allow him to reach 100 pitches (which would've likely come prior to the 6th inning) it's far too simplistic to just dismiss him as an inefficient pitcher. He's only in his age-24 season, and may not be yet even entering his prime. I personally believe he's going to be much closer to a 3.18 xFIP ('08) than a 4.56 ('09), in terms of true talent level.

I'm not sure whether I think Joba or Phil is the better choice for the rotation next season, but I know about 29 teams that would kill to have to make that decision. And knowing the way pitchers tend to get injured, it's a pretty safe bet that both Hughes & Chamberlain will log significant innings as starters in 2010.

what FIP do you think he will post next year? I think the CHONE projection of 4.17 is reasonable.

Principessa21
02-18-10, 11:35 PM
Yeah, that's pretty reasonable. Given how much I love his stuff, I wouldn't (personally) be surprised if he beat that. Keep in mind that the numbers I cited were xFIP, of course.

Even if he 'only' turns in a 4.17 FIP... think about that. A 4.17 FIP, from a 24-yo, in the AL East.

I'm A Wenner!
02-18-10, 11:43 PM
ignore list!

What just happened?

groovitude
02-18-10, 11:44 PM
"Mid-nineties" and "touches mid-nineties" are two very different things. A starter with an average fastball can touch mid-nineties. Anyone who sits at least 91 can touch 94 occasionally. Hughes averaged 91.7 as a starter.

Sitting mid-nineities is far more impressive.In terms of velocity, it's absolutely more impressive. But a starter with an 'average' fastball isn't going to be able to place their mid-nineties (or even low-nineties) fastball like Hughes has demonstrated he is able to.

Case in point: Hughes' fastball was rated as 1.2 runs above average per 100 pitches. Only Coke and Josh Towers (small, small, small sample size) rated better on the Yankees; the next closest was David Robertson at 0.73. In terms of total runs above average with regard to a fastball, only CC Sabathia rated higher (13.6 to Hughes' 10.9 in significantly fewer innings).

I apologize if anyone feels I tried to mislead about the velocity of Phil's fastball, and stand corrected for those who feel I misrepresented his velocity. He has pitched 91-92 on his heater when starting thus far.

JeterRodriguezSheff
02-19-10, 06:34 AM
sitting 91-93 is good for a starter, add in good control and some good secondary stuff and you have a potential ace. Hughes fastball velocity is fine for the type of pitcher he is(when he is on his game).

TheHugeUnit2
02-19-10, 06:36 AM
other: Dan Haren.

yankeebot
02-19-10, 06:46 AM
Joba. They've come this far with him. I want to see it completed. We've all seen the potential and not ever knowing if he could have lived up to it would be a travesty in my mind.

yankee82093
02-19-10, 06:49 AM
In terms of velocity, it's absolutely more impressive. But a starter with an 'average' fastball isn't going to be able to place their mid-nineties (or even low-nineties) fastball like Hughes has demonstrated he is able to.

Case in point: Hughes' fastball was rated as 1.2 runs above average per 100 pitches. Only Coke and Josh Towers (small, small, small sample size) rated better on the Yankees; the next closest was David Robertson at 0.73. In terms of total runs above average with regard to a fastball, only CC Sabathia rated higher (13.6 to Hughes' 10.9 in significantly fewer innings).

I apologize if anyone feels I tried to mislead about the velocity of Phil's fastball, and stand corrected for those who feel I misrepresented his velocity. He has pitched 91-92 on his heater when starting thus far.

I agree that Phil has an above-average fastball. I was just saying he does not have a mid-nineties fastball.

yankee82093
02-19-10, 06:50 AM
Yeah, that's pretty reasonable. Given how much I love his stuff, I wouldn't (personally) be surprised if he beat that. Keep in mind that the numbers I cited were xFIP, of course.

Even if he 'only' turns in a 4.17 FIP... think about that. A 4.17 FIP, from a 24-yo, in the AL East.

I know you said xFIP, but projection systems only project for FIP. And I agree that 4.17 would be very impressive.

ANSKYcm
02-19-10, 10:09 AM
I want Joba for this year. He's further along and I'm sick of the bouncing him back and forth. Next year I replace Pettitte or Javy with Hughes.

bcom33
02-19-10, 10:09 AM
Joba unless he's showing clear velocity and control issues and Hughes clearly outpitches him.

delv
02-19-10, 10:11 AM
I'm surprised this is as close as it is right now.

ajra21
02-19-10, 10:21 AM
I'm surprised this is as close as it is right now.

me too. you have to go to joba. the guy have battled through too much for us to pass him over now. i fully expect him to be the 5th starter. hughes will go to the 'pen and be ready to take over when one of the rotation gets hurt.

THEBOSS84
02-19-10, 10:25 AM
Joba unless he's showing clear velocity and control issues and Hughes clearly outpitches him.

Yeah, exactly.

For the record, I'm also shocked how close the voting is so far.

Hobie
02-19-10, 10:34 AM
Joba.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2008_07_25_nyamlb_bosmlb_1

DiMaggio5CF
02-19-10, 10:59 AM
Throw around all the numbers you want, here are the only ones that matter.

At the big league level, their career regular season numbers*...

As a Starter
Hughes: 28 G, 141.1 IP, 8-9, 5.22 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 7.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, .301 BABIP
Chamberlain: 43 G, 221.2 IP, 12-7, 4.18 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 8.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, .322 BABIP

As a Reliever
Hughes: 44 G, 51.1 IP, 5-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 5.4 H/9 11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, .257 BABIP
Chamberlain: 50 G, 60 IP, 3-2, 1.50 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 5.9 H/9, 11.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, .278 BABIP

Both have spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues, and both have had injury issues, but the result is that Chamberlain, 24, with a slighly bigger body of work in each category, is the better starter, and Hughes, 23, is the better reliever.



*Rounded to nearest tenth. I took most of the stats from B-R.com, but I had to calculate H/9, BB/9, and HR/9, if you want to double-check my math.

delv
02-19-10, 11:11 AM
both of those are pretty small sample sizes, man

Hellsing
02-19-10, 01:01 PM
Yeah, exactly.

For the record, I'm also shocked how close the voting is so far.

I'm not.


FWIW the projections for Hughes are better than those for Chamberlain. (from Fangraphs)

Hughes:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P

Joba:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2692&position=P

The innings obviously account for something, but it's pretty interesting.