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Martini6196
01-28-10, 07:11 PM
Interesting....Yanks picked to finish 3rd.
W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Rays 96 66 885 729 .263 .352 .452
Red Sox 95 67 882 737 .275 .356 .448
Yankees 93 69 917 789 .277 .367 .455
Orioles 79 83 864 889 .279 .348 .449
Blue Jays 71 91 773 878 .258 .329 .427

http://waswatching.com/2010/01/28/2010-pecota-yanks-to-finish-3rd-in-a-l-east/

RYMASTER or Ryan_Yankees
01-28-10, 07:24 PM
I don't buy it.

HelloNewman
01-28-10, 07:24 PM
Last year's projections:

http://sixfourthreeblog.com/2009/03/31/analyzing-the-2009-pecota-projections/

In short: Yanks, Indians, Angels/A's tie as division winners, Red Sox wildcard

Mets, Cubs, Dodgers as div. winners, D-Backs as wildcard.

They're going to have to do better than that going forward.

DEADSOX
01-28-10, 07:33 PM
Yeah, we'll come in third.... Rays won't do any better than last year imo.

YouGotCervellied
01-28-10, 07:42 PM
Rays in first place........

HelloNewman
01-28-10, 07:49 PM
Nationals to win 82 games ... :wtf:

continentalg5
01-28-10, 07:54 PM
Ahahahaha..projections are funny, especially because the Rays are in first place...

MooseDaGun
01-28-10, 07:58 PM
Nate Silver is a genius, but he projected the Yankees for 99 wins last year, so I don't know how he sees the Yankees as six games worse this year. I'd like to see an explanation.

Yankeeah
01-28-10, 08:01 PM
It also has the A's winning the division, followed by Seattle and Texas 1 and 2 games behind.

Yankeeah
01-28-10, 08:02 PM
Nate Silver is a genius, but he projected the Yankees for 99 wins last year, so I don't know how he sees the Yankees as six games worse this year. I'd like to see an explanation.
Well, they did have Angel Berroa last year.

I'm A Wenner!
01-28-10, 08:02 PM
Nate Silver doesn't work for BP anymore. PECOTA was atrocious last year, and it's contradicting most of the other projection systems this offseason, all of which outperformed it last year.

teknetic
01-28-10, 08:04 PM
Marlins behind the Mets makes no sense whatsoever.

Edit: Royals finishing with more runs than Cleveland and a .346 team OBP is even worse.

YESSIR!
01-28-10, 08:07 PM
I'm not sure how the Yankees are projected to give up 36 more runs allowed from 2009 considering their pitching staff is better and their defense should be much better in 2010 :dunno:

Meh, I'll take my chances with The Champs.

ShaneTravis
01-28-10, 08:09 PM
This saves me a lot of time.

I won't bother watching the games next season.

brosiusbuddy
01-28-10, 08:30 PM
Newsbreak: PECOTA predicts sun will rise at 11:00 am Eastern Time tomorrow.

I'm A Wenner!
01-28-10, 08:35 PM
I really wouldn't worry about it, guys. PECOTA's methodology is super-flawed, and last year it made some totally insane predictions that were nowhere near accurate. Matt Wieters was supposed to be just about the best player in the AL.

Yankeesfan21
01-28-10, 08:55 PM
Last year's projections:

http://sixfourthreeblog.com/2009/03/31/analyzing-the-2009-pecota-projections/

In short: Yanks, Indians, Angels/A's tie as division winners, Red Sox wildcard

Mets, Cubs, Dodgers as div. winners, D-Backs as wildcard.

They're going to have to do better than that going forward.
LOL @ Picking the Phillies 3rd in that ................ty division. Barring injury, they already have that division locked up.

ThePinStripes
01-28-10, 09:07 PM
Aside from the Rays gaining 22 games on the Yankees this off-season, how the hell did the Mariners add Cliff Lee and Figgens, but only improve their record by ONE MEASLY GAME? :lol:

ThePinStripes
01-28-10, 09:24 PM
I really wouldn't worry about it, guys. PECOTA's methodology is super-flawed, and last year it made some totally insane predictions that were nowhere near accurate. Matt Wieters was supposed to be just about the best player in the AL.
Well, here is the problem. You have a large range of error for each player that you multiply by 25 players that you multiply by 162 games for 30 teams. By the time you're done, it's like 80 wins, +/- 40 games. It's the same problem with predicting the weather 6 months from now.

You base day 3's weather on day 2's weather which is based on day 1's weather. Every hop is multiplying by another % uncertainty. By the time you get 162 days out.. well....

Let me put it this way: if you were 99% sure of whether or not it was gonna rain tomorrow (day 2), and 99% of day 3 (based on day 2)...
You'd know if it was gonna rain with a mighty 19.2 % accuracy... or a 1 in 5 chance.

What good is that? It's pretty much just as good as guessing with common sense. Maybe even worse in some cases.


"No! Seriously! Look at the numbers! The Yankees aren't going to make the playoffs!"
I don't care what your numbers say. I don't need to see calculations to know a damn gold brick isn't going to float.

delv
01-28-10, 10:51 PM
Aside from the Rays gaining 22 games on the Yankees this off-season, how the hell did the Mariners add Cliff Lee and Figgens, but only improve their record by ONE MEASLY GAME? :lol:

I'm not trying to defend PECOTA, but some of the thought may be that the Mariners outperformed their pythag (a lot of 1-run and come-back wins), and the A's underperformed. Same w/ the Yanks (outperformed pythag).

In any case, that Ms team is so different now (Koch @ 1st, Figgins @ 3rd, Wilson for a whole season, Johjima out, Milton Bradley in) that it's hard to compare them.

ericns1
01-28-10, 11:08 PM
PECOTA who????

Mean Linguine
01-28-10, 11:21 PM
More losers who never played the game trying to have computers figure out who will win contests involving men with heartbeats and emotions.

The same people whose formulas tell them that Richie Sexson is better than Mattingly, Danny Tartabull is better than Tony Gwynn and Adam Dunn is better than Ichiro.

delv
01-28-10, 11:27 PM
More losers who never played the game trying to have computers figure out who will win contests involving men with heartbeats and emotions.

The same people whose formulas tell them that Richie Sexson is better than Mattingly, Danny Tartabull is better than Tony Gwynn and Adam Dunn is better than Ichiro.

Whoa, man, despite your ill screen name, you're off on that one. I don't know who is claiming that.

Mean Linguine
01-28-10, 11:40 PM
Whoa, man, despite your ill screen name, you're off on that one. I don't know who is claiming that.

Not anyone specific in here. Just a general rant about people who worship the almighty OPS (or any other single stat) without putting it into context.

I thought it was a great stat, too -- until I realized that Joe Randa had a better OPS than Nettles, Mickey Tettleton had a higher OPS than Munson, and countless other examples.

bigjf
01-28-10, 11:52 PM
Glad the games aren't played on paper.

Also, they have the A's winning the West? I'd pick them to finish last...

K-W
01-29-10, 12:25 AM
Not anyone specific in here. Just a general rant about people who worship the almighty OPS (or any other single stat) without putting it into context.

I thought it was a great stat, too -- until I realized that Joe Randa had a better OPS than Nettles, Mickey Tettleton had a higher OPS than Munson, and countless other examples.

Your ignorance of stats is not proof of their flaws. Nobody who understands OPS would ever have told you to worship it or told you that it alone would allow you to rank players particularly ones from different eras.

Likewise, nobody who understands projections will tell you that they are a precise prediction of the future. These models are flawed and limited and the people making them and using them know that. It doesn't make them useless or some kind of trick.

delv
01-29-10, 08:07 AM
Not anyone specific in here. Just a general rant about people who worship the almighty OPS (or any other single stat) without putting it into context.

I thought it was a great stat, too -- until I realized that Joe Randa had a better OPS than Nettles, Mickey Tettleton had a higher OPS than Munson, and countless other examples.

Sexson had a higher OPS than Mattingly (.851 to .830), but Mattingly had a higher OPS+. OPS+ is a stat that is adjusted for era and takes into account the fact that Mattingly played very well in an a time when offense was generally lower across MLB. So, Mattingly's OPS+ is 127 to Sexson's 120. When you include Mattingly's defense, it's a slam dunk that Mattingly's way better.

Maybe you should look at OPS+. You might like it.

Yankee Fan in Boston
01-29-10, 08:23 AM
Sexson had a higher OPS than Mattingly (.851 to .830), but Mattingly had a higher OPS+. OPS+ is a stat that is adjusted for era and takes into account the fact that Mattingly played very well in an a time when offense was generally lower across MLB. So, Mattingly's OPS+ is 127 to Sexson's 120. When you include Mattingly's defense, it's a slam dunk that Mattingly's way better.

Maybe you should look at OPS+. You might like it.

And this is actually no different that applying traditional statistics when comparing players. The game has changed a lot, and adjusted statistics are much better than looking at, say, HRs from the 1970s and comparing them to today's totals

THEBOSS84
01-29-10, 08:48 AM
http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

CAIRO has the Yanks finishing with the best record in the majors. 8+ games better than anyone else.

DEADSOX
01-29-10, 08:50 AM
Those projections are MUCH more believeable all the way around. I still don't see the Mets outperforming the Marlins next year though.

teknetic
01-29-10, 08:57 AM
695 RA in the AL East would probably make it the best pitching staff in the baseball. They'll be good, but I'm not sure if they'll be that good.

DEADSOX
01-29-10, 09:02 AM
695 RA in the AL East would probably make it the best pitching staff in the baseball. They'll be good, but I'm not if they'll be that good.

58 R better than last season might be possible with the addition of Vazquez and the subraction of regular use of Mitre/Gaudin and Wang in the beginning was THAT bad, I mean Wang gave up 23 ER in 6 innings in the first month himself... yikes.

mjdlight
01-29-10, 09:12 AM
Same w/ the Yanks (outperformed pythag).


The Yanks have been outperforming their pythag for years. They have a being far more powerful than Pythagoros. His name is Mariano.

blumj
01-29-10, 09:17 AM
The earliest Pecotas always seem way off, I think it's usually screwy playing time projections. Check back in a few weeks and it'll be completely different.

Yankee Fan in Boston
01-29-10, 09:18 AM
http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

CAIRO has the Yanks finishing with the best record in the majors. 8+ games better than anyone else.

For all the talk on here about this year's offense vs. last year's, it's amusing that it projects the Yankees to score one more run

delv
01-29-10, 09:22 AM
For all the talk on here about this year's offense vs. last year's, it's amusing that it projects the Yankees to score one more run

Jorge Vazquez solo homerun Sept 27th 2010.

Yankee Fan in Boston
01-29-10, 09:24 AM
Jorge Vazquez solo homerun Sept 27th 2010.

I was thinking Mariano gets 2 RBIs this year

Beyle
01-29-10, 09:38 AM
More losers who never played the game trying to have computers figure out who will win contests involving men with heartbeats and emotions.

The same people whose formulas tell them that Richie Sexson is better than Mattingly, Danny Tartabull is better than Tony Gwynn and Adam Dunn is better than Ichiro.

At first, I thought your screename was Mean Lingerie.



That is all. :looking:

Hellsing
01-29-10, 10:12 AM
PetCo Park made a projects about the 2010 season and put its own team in last place.

ChrisNY
01-29-10, 10:21 AM
http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

CAIRO has the Yanks finishing with the best record in the majors. 8+ games better than anyone else.

Those predictions are pretty reasonable, but there's no point in getting mad or excited at any of these. They're fun to look at, but I don't really care if it ranks the Mets or Nats higher than the Yanks. We'll see what happens when they get on the diamond.

PrettyinPinstripes
01-29-10, 10:42 AM
Eh, I find it hard to believe the Yanks would only finish in 3rd with the team they've got starting the 2010 season. Rays could be in 2nd if a lot of their great (so I've heard) prospects get to the majors this year (is that likely to happen?), but I don't know if they'd take the division.

PYanks
01-29-10, 11:59 AM
See Jeter's quote, below...

BronxYanks45
01-29-10, 01:27 PM
someone please remember to resurrect this thread that the end of the season, Yanks in 3rd in the AL East too funny

Mean Linguine
01-29-10, 02:19 PM
Your ignorance of stats is not proof of their flaws. Nobody who understands OPS would ever have told you to worship it or told you that it alone would allow you to rank players particularly ones from different eras.

Likewise, nobody who understands projections will tell you that they are a precise prediction of the future. These models are flawed and limited and the people making them and using them know that. It doesn't make them useless or some kind of trick.

You sound like you apply the stats the way they should be applied.
But I've actually had people on here say that journeyman Danny Tartabull was better than Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn because he had a higher OPS. You see it in football, too, with the quarterback rating.
Anyway, wasn't anything personal toward you or anybody, just a general rant about people who don't look at the total picture and hide behind stats.

I'm A Wenner!
01-29-10, 02:26 PM
To be fair, Tony Gwynn was super-overrated.

Mean Linguine
01-29-10, 02:49 PM
To be fair, Tony Gwynn was super-overrated.

Whatever you say.

effdamets
01-29-10, 03:07 PM
Well - these projections are calling for 79 wins from the Orioles.
They haven't won that many games in 12 seasons! (1998)

DEADSOX
01-29-10, 03:12 PM
Whatever you say.

Just wait for the soon to come "FACTS" post.

AnA-bombforA-rod
01-29-10, 03:58 PM
Eh, I find it hard to believe the Yanks would only finish in 3rd with the team they've got starting the 2010 season. Rays could be in 2nd if a lot of their great (so I've heard) prospects get to the majors this year (is that likely to happen?), but I don't know if they'd take the division.

Same here. Especially since they have A-Rod for the full year and healthy also. Yankees are still the best team in baseball right now.

2PhonesMaccabee
01-29-10, 05:54 PM
Well - these projections are calling for 79 wins from the Orioles.
They haven't won that many games in 12 seasons! (1998)

I could see the O's winning 79 games this year, it's only a 15 game improvement over last year.

blumj
01-29-10, 05:55 PM
They already admitted it's messed up, they're working on getting it updated right now.

teknetic
01-29-10, 05:57 PM
I could see the O's winning 79 games this year, it's only a 15 game improvement over last year.

That's a pretty huge swing. They haven't done anything this offseason that points to this.

I'm A Wenner!
01-29-10, 06:08 PM
Whatever you say.

I'm not trying to be a jerk, but Gwynn didn't walk much and he didn't hit for a much power. He was valuable because he never struck out and he hit for retardedly high averages pretty much every year. But hitting for average was his only real offensive skill.

Yankee Tripper
01-29-10, 06:17 PM
I'm not trying to be a jerk, but Gwynn didn't walk much and he didn't hit for a much power. He was valuable because he never struck out and he hit for retardedly high averages pretty much every year. But hitting for average was his only real offensive skill.
But it is an excellent skill to have. His BB rate was so low because he was so damn good at making contact and placing where fielders weren't. It is insane that he had only 434 Ks in over 10,000 MLB PAs. The only hitter I rememeber rivaling him in that skill, of placing the ball were he wanted, was Rod Carew. He did have a career .388 OBP and career OPS+ of 132, so while he isn't in the strosphere of all-time greats, he was more than just an empty .300 hitter.

He also stole over 300 bases thought his 71% sucess rate isn't that great. Not horrible, but not great.

I'm A Wenner!
01-29-10, 06:25 PM
But it is an excellent skill to have. His BB rate was so low because he was so damn good at making contact and placing where fielders weren't. It is insane that he had only 434 Ks in over 10,000 MLB PAs. The only hitter I rememeber rivaling him in that skill, of placing the ball were he wanted, was Rod Carew. He did have a career .388 OBP and career OPS+ of 132, so while he isn't in the strosphere of all-time greats, he was more than just an empty .300 hitter.

He also stole over 300 bases thought his 71% sucess rate isn't that great. Not horrible, but not great.

It is an excellent skill to have, and Gwynn was about as good as anyone ever at that, but it's not the end-all, be-all of baseball statistics.

I'm not disagreeing that Gwynn was a great player, and I believe that he belongs in the HoF. I'm just saying that there are better players who didn't, and won't, get in.

Yankee Tripper
01-29-10, 06:39 PM
It is an excellent skill to have, and Gwynn was about as good as anyone ever at that, but it's not the end-all, be-all of baseball statistics.

I'm not disagreeing that Gwynn was a great player, and I believe that he belongs in the HoF. I'm just saying that there are better players who didn't, and won't, get in.
Outside of Shoeless Joe Jackson (who is ineligible for induction), name one eligible player - 10 years of MLB service and retired for at least 5 year. Who is not in the hall of fame but was better than Tony Gwynn?

I can think of plenty of hall of famers better than Gwynn but I can't think of one player better than Gwynn who is on the outside looking in at the hall of fame.

Gusto
01-29-10, 08:30 PM
Outside of Shoeless Joe Jackson (who is ineligible for induction), name one eligible player - 10 years of MLB service and retired for at least 5 year. Who is not in the hall of fame but was better than Tony Gwynn?

I can think of plenty of hall of famers better than Gwynn but I can't think of one player better than Gwynn who is on the outside looking in at the hall of fame.

Pete Rose

2PhonesMaccabee
01-29-10, 08:40 PM
name one eligible player - 10 years of MLB service and retired for at least 5 year. Who is not in the hall of fame but was better than Tony Gwynn?


Pete Rose

Pete Rose is not an eligible player.

NelsonMuntz
01-29-10, 09:03 PM
Pete Rose is not an eligible player.
Nor do I think he was better than Gwynn, unless you are giving him bonus points for playing more positions defensively. Offensively Gwynn had a much higher career OPS, and averaged more stolen bases and home runs per season than Rose.

blumj
01-29-10, 09:05 PM
http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?sessionstatus=notloggedin&mode=login

Update

Yankee Fan in Boston
01-29-10, 09:19 PM
http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?sessionstatus=notloggedin&mode=login

Update

Wow. Winn is going to have a great season for us, judging by that change.

Doesn't this seem all too close to the mean? The Yankees and Red Sox, with 93 wins each, tied for the best record in the AL?

Wait... the Mariners are 3rd in their division?

I'm A Wenner!
01-29-10, 09:20 PM
They still look like ass. BP sucks.

Billy Ball 2008
01-29-10, 09:37 PM
PECOTA who????

Bill Pecota??

NYYRules#1
01-29-10, 09:46 PM
That update might be worse than the original projections. Where's Nate Silver to fix this mess?

ThePinStripes
01-29-10, 09:53 PM
http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?sessionstatus=notloggedin&mode=login

Update

Apparently, Winn is going to mash against the Rays :lol:

blumj
01-30-10, 06:19 AM
If last year is any guide, I wouldn't expect the last version before the season starts to look too much like these earliest ones.

teknetic
01-30-10, 12:44 PM
Boston is gonna score only 31 fewer runs than us? That's believable.

Could someone post the Yankees projections?

DEADSOX
01-30-10, 12:55 PM
That's worse than the first list of projections.

yankee82093
01-30-10, 03:43 PM
I prefer the projections on replacementlevelyankeesweblog. They have the Yankees winning 102 games and finishing in first place, which seems more accurate to me.

AnA-bombforA-rod
01-30-10, 04:07 PM
Based on Baseball Prospectus the Yankees are gonna score 60 less runs. No freakin chance.

RYMASTER or Ryan_Yankees
01-30-10, 09:34 PM
Wow, if those W-L records came true...baseball outside of the AL East would be quite mediocre. :lol:

ajra21
01-31-10, 09:20 AM
in some ways, we overperformed last year. our pitching took us far further than it should have. no wang, joba on an innings limit, mitre and gaudin finishing the year as our fifth starter. last year i believed we'd win around 95 games but acknowledged that might only be good enough for third place. i could see the same happening again.

i doubt jeter hits as well this year but think that johnson and granderson out perform matsui and damon. i think tex might drop back a little but that a full year of alex might cover it up. andy and AJ are likely to miss time but vasquez, joba and hughes et al can make up for it.

now the new PECOTA standings have us in tied first. one thing i know is that i'd take us as favourites to win our division but once the playoffs starts, the red sox rotation could wipe the floor with everyone.

ajra21
01-31-10, 09:21 AM
Wow, if those W-L records came true...baseball outside of the AL East would be quite mediocre. :lol:
i believe it often is.

ajra21
01-31-10, 09:44 AM
They still look like ass. BP sucks.

haven't they been proven to be quite accurate over the last few years?

Yankee Tripper
01-31-10, 11:43 AM
haven't they been proven to be quite accurate over the last few years?They blow some from time to time, usually due to odd injures but year in and year out the BP projected standings are typically better than anyone else.

I'm A Wenner!
01-31-10, 01:24 PM
haven't they been proven to be quite accurate over the last few years?

They were terrible last year, and there was a ton of criticism levied against them in preseason, when some of their projections were absolutely insane and everyone (except BP) knew it. They were pretty bad in 2008, as well. Since Silver decided to start predicting elections, they've struggled.

ThePinStripes
01-31-10, 10:29 PM
The Red Sox 2010 offense strikes me as average, at best.

Last year, the Sox team average was 105 OPS+. That's WITH Jason Bay.
Now they replaced the 134 OPS+ Bay with the ~110 OPS+ Mike Cameron.

I don't know why they think the Sox are going to be some sort of offense powerhouse.

PS: For comparison, our team average was 122 OPS+ :lol:

sweet_lou_14
02-01-10, 06:09 AM
in some ways, we overperformed last year. our pitching took us far further than it should have. no wang, joba on an innings limit, mitre and gaudin finishing the year as our fifth starter. last year i believed we'd win around 95 games but acknowledged that might only be good enough for third place. i could see the same happening again.

I'd be pretty surprised to see the Red Sox and especially the Rays top 95 wins in 2010. Do you honestly believe the Yankees are the third-best team in the division on paper?

SubwayFanatic
02-01-10, 06:31 AM
The Red Sox 2010 offense strikes me as average, at best.

Last year, the Sox team average was 105 OPS+. That's WITH Jason Bay.
Now they replaced the 134 OPS+ Bay with the ~110 OPS+ Mike Cameron.

I don't know why they think the Sox are going to be some sort of offense powerhouse.

PS: For comparison, our team average was 122 OPS+ :lol:

They are predicting the Red Sox to score 824 runs this year. Last year they scored 867.

How exactly are they picking the Sox to have a powerhouse offense?

b_joseph
02-01-10, 07:12 AM
Oh well..93 wins isnt too bad. There is always 2011 :)

I guess from their perspective, any question mark that we may have will go against us ( Pettitte maintaining solid play, Jeter and Posada staying great, AJ being healthy etc etc ).

OldYankeeFan
02-01-10, 08:34 AM
...i'd take us as favourites to win our division but once the playoffs starts, the red sox rotation could wipe the floor with everyone.That's exactly how the RS are built. I really don't think with their lineup they can compete with us for the division and they couldn't afford to try and match up with us offensively. So they spent their money on more pitching in hopes of getting the wild card and giving them selves a chance in the playoffs withpresumably (to them) the best starting 4.

It's a good strategy but one that puts them a little more at risk of actually NOT making the playoffs at all. But on paper it goes against all common sense in predicting that they will win the division outright and should have been a clear signal that they should go back and check and refine the mathematical assumptions that they were using to come to the assinine conclusion that they came to.

Rocketbooster
02-01-10, 09:05 AM
The Sox rotation is built to wipe the floor with teams? If the Yanks play the Sox in the playoffs, I'm perfectly comfortable going up against their team and their rotation because I have every confidence in our own.

I'm A Wenner!
02-01-10, 09:33 AM
The Sox rotation is good, but some people are giving it way too much credit. Lester is outstanding, but you guys are really overrating Beckett and Lackey.

Hellsing
02-01-10, 10:10 AM
I think the pitchers that can turn the tide on which rotation will be better this year both play for the Yankees: Vazquez and Hughes/Chamberlain

If Vazquez pitches like he did last year, the Yankees will have 2 aces.

Certainly their rotation is very good, but outside of Lester they are all very hittable.

Yankees13
02-01-10, 10:16 AM
http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?sessionstatus=notloggedin&mode=login

Update
I'm curious as to how a team 367 OBP only translates to 855 runs. The 2007 Yankees had a 366 OBP and they scored 968 runs. These projections look pretty terrible.

MooseDaGun
02-01-10, 10:22 AM
The Sox rotation is good, but some people are giving it way too much credit. Lester is outstanding, but you guys are really overrating Beckett and Lackey.
Yeah, definitely. Lester is significantly better than Beckett and Lackey isn't that far above a LAIM, not having hit a 120 ERA+ since 2007.

ThePinStripes
02-01-10, 10:40 AM
They are predicting the Red Sox to score 824 runs this year. Last year they scored 867.

How exactly are they picking the Sox to have a powerhouse offense?

824 runs is still a lot of runs. That's still good #4 in all of baseball in 2009.

sweet_lou_14
02-01-10, 10:52 AM
Yeah, definitely. Lester is significantly better than Beckett and Lackey isn't that far above a LAIM, not having hit a 120 ERA+ since 2007.

I had to look up "LAIM" to find out it stands for "league average innings muncher." Just thought others might find that helpful since I don't think this is a widely used acronym ... at least, I'd never heard of it.

blumj
02-01-10, 10:53 AM
I'm curious as to how a team 367 OBP only translates to 855 runs. The 2007 Yankees had a 366 OBP and they scored 968 runs. These projections look pretty terrible.
http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1496 They're still messed up, and they know it.

They did another update already, but I assume it's still a work in progress.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

SubwayFanatic
02-01-10, 10:55 AM
824 runs is still a lot of runs. That's still good #4 in all of baseball in 2009.

But that is not a "powerhouse" like you said it was.

NelsonMuntz
02-01-10, 12:25 PM
The Sox rotation is good, but some people are giving it way too much credit. Lester is outstanding, but you guys are really overrating Beckett and Lackey.
Agreed.

knickfan23
02-01-10, 12:33 PM
824 runs is still a lot of runs. That's still good #4 in all of baseball in 2009.

I was looking at the numbers in terms the runs the last few years and offense has been going down:

2007 - 1st - Yankees (968)
2nd - Philadelphia (892)

2008 - 1st - Texas (901)
2nd - Chi Cubs (855)

2009 - 1st - Yankees (898)
2nd - LA Angels (866)

I think the main factor to this has been the "cleaning up" of the sport with the PED's and the amphetamines. This trend is likely to continue.

It's likely the Yanks can score 20 less runs and still lead MLB in runs scored.

THEBOSS84
02-01-10, 12:35 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/of-projections-and-predictions

ajra21
02-01-10, 12:47 PM
They blow some from time to time, usually due to odd injures but year in and year out the BP projected standings are typically better than anyone else.

i thought so. i recall reading something last year about them being easily the most accurate predictors out there. they are bound to get things wrong some of the time. they predicted the rays break out in 2008.


They were terrible last year, and there was a ton of criticism levied against them in preseason, when some of their projections were absolutely insane and everyone (except BP) knew it. They were pretty bad in 2008, as well. Since Silver decided to start predicting elections, they've struggled.

really, ok ...


I'd be pretty surprised to see the Red Sox and especially the Rays top 95 wins in 2010. Do you honestly believe the Yankees are the third-best team in the division on paper?

of course, they are no longer projected as that. but i thought the number of wins could be relatively accurate. specifically, to your point, they weren't just the third best team in the division but the third best team in baseball. that wouldn't shock me. as i've said, i think we're favourites to win the division but we could win a really good number of games and have to fight against the sox/rays for the wildcard.

who knows? i guess this is why they play the games ...

ajra21
02-01-10, 12:48 PM
That's exactly how the RS are built. I really don't think with their lineup they can compete with us for the division and they couldn't afford to try and match up with us offensively. So they spent their money on more pitching in hopes of getting the wild card and giving them selves a chance in the playoffs withpresumably (to them) the best starting 4.

It's a good strategy but one that puts them a little more at risk of actually NOT making the playoffs at all. But on paper it goes against all common sense in predicting that they will win the division outright and should have been a clear signal that they should go back and check and refine the mathematical assumptions that they were using to come to the assinine conclusion that they came to.

i tend to agree.

ajra21
02-01-10, 12:49 PM
The Sox rotation is built to wipe the floor with teams? If the Yanks play the Sox in the playoffs, I'm perfectly comfortable going up against their team and their rotation because I have every confidence in our own.

so am i but the front three of becket, lester and lackey is impressive. for me it is the best front end of a rotation in baseball. overall, however, i prefer our club.

RYMASTER or Ryan_Yankees
02-01-10, 12:59 PM
so am i but the front three of becket, lester and lackey is impressive. for me it is the best front end of a rotation in baseball. overall, however, i prefer our club.

2010 is an even year, which means a bad year for Beckett. ;)

JeterRodriguezSheff
02-01-10, 01:13 PM
The Yankees are the favorite as far as I am concerned. Defending champs, that only got better in the offseason.

delv
02-01-10, 09:59 PM
2010 is an even year, which means a bad year for Beckett. ;)

but also a "bad" yr for A-Rod? :(

Mean Linguine
02-01-10, 10:19 PM
Without Matsui and Damon, the team will not score as many runs.
That's 50 homers right there. And Melky would have given you 12. So that's 62 for three players. How many will Granderson, Johnson and Gardner give you combined? 40?

Having said that, they should pitch better and play better outfield defense, so maybe it's a push.

I'm A Wenner!
02-01-10, 10:28 PM
Without Matsui and Damon, the team will not score as many runs.
That's 50 homers right there. And Melky would have given you 12. So that's 62 for three players. How many will Granderson, Johnson and Gardner give you combined? 40?

Having said that, they should pitch better and play better outfield defense, so maybe it's a push.

You're right. The Yankees might be a worse home run derby team next year.

Except... wait a minute... this is actually a BASEBALL team! Oh, silly me.

Fortunately, there are more baseball skills that produce runs than just hitting home runs, not to mention the fact that Granderson is the best power hitter out of that group. Granderson and Johnson are projected to provide more offensive value than Damon and Matsui. That's all there is to it.

VinnyTheMick
02-01-10, 10:31 PM
Without Matsui and Damon, the team will not score as many runs.
That's 50 homers right there. And Melky would have given you 12. So that's 62 for three players. How many will Granderson, Johnson and Gardner give you combined? 40?

Having said that, they should pitch better and play better outfield defense, so maybe it's a push.


Well, if Granderson loves the right porch as much as some people think he will then I think combined they will hit over 40 home runs.

Yankee Tripper
02-02-10, 12:02 PM
Without Matsui and Damon, the team will not score as many runs.
That's 50 homers right there. And Melky would have given you 12. So that's 62 for three players. How many will Granderson, Johnson and Gardner give you combined? 40?

Having said that, they should pitch better and play better outfield defense, so maybe it's a push.
Yeah they'll hit fewer HRs.

But how many SBs would Melky/Damon/Matsui get? 25-30?
How many SBs will Granderson/Gardner/Johnson get? 60 - 80?

Not the same I know, I'd rather have the HR than the SB but as you said, defense will be much better in the OF Granderson/Gardner than Damon/Melky - regardless of who plays CF and who plays LF.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 03:17 PM
You're right. The Yankees might be a worse home run derby team next year.

Except... wait a minute... this is actually a BASEBALL team! Oh, silly me.

Fortunately, there are more baseball skills that produce runs than just hitting home runs, not to mention the fact that Granderson is the best power hitter out of that group. Granderson and Johnson are projected to provide more offensive value than Damon and Matsui. That's all there is to it.

Damon and Matsui get on base at a good clip, too.
I think Matsui's better than Johnson. You don't. That's fine. Either way, your points would probably be better received in here if you turned the condescending knob from 10 to 5.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 03:22 PM
Yeah they'll hit fewer HRs.

But how many SBs would Melky/Damon/Matsui get? 25-30?
How many SBs will Granderson/Gardner/Johnson get? 60 - 80?

Not the same I know, I'd rather have the HR than the SB but as you said, defense will be much better in the OF Granderson/Gardner than Damon/Melky - regardless of who plays CF and who plays LF.

Yes, I think it will probably be a wash overall. But I think the team would be even better if Johnny was the left fielder instead of Gardner and Matsui was the DH instead of Johnson. Those two guys murdered lefty pitching and were proven postseason performers, in addition to being low-maintenance teammates.
But I loved the Vazquez and Granderson moves, so overall it was a decent offseason.

teknetic
02-02-10, 03:23 PM
Well, if Granderson loves the right porch as much as some people think he will then I think combined they will hit over 40 home runs.

Granderson alone might push 40.

THEBOSS84
02-02-10, 03:24 PM
Far too many people are considering NJ better than Matsui and making it as if it's a no-brainer. I just don't see it like that.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 03:26 PM
Well, if Granderson loves the right porch as much as some people think he will then I think combined they will hit over 40 home runs.

I figure around 28 for Curtis, 10 for Nick and 2 for Gardner.
But would be very happy if it were more in all three cases.

Yankee Tripper
02-02-10, 03:28 PM
Far too many people are considering NJ better than Matsui and making it as if it's a no-brainer.Both are health risk that don't run. Nick > Gozilla OPB, Godzilla > Nick SLG. AVE should be about about a wash.

Despite Nick's past health issues though it is hard to see going forward where he isn't a better health risk than Matsui given that he's 6 years younger and doesn't have degenerative knees.

Godzilla may have a better year than Nick, he did so last year, but I think Nick is the safer bet for 2010.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 03:32 PM
Far too many people are considering NJ better than Matsui and making it as if it's a no-brainer. I just don't see it like that.

Thank you. Thought I was alone on this.
Matsui was a professional hitter. You never worried about him.
I like the fact that Nick was a homegrown Yank and has a good eye and glove (not that it will matter if he is DH).
But Nick has been playing for 10 years. Can anyone name a single moment from him that stood out?

Yankee Tripper
02-02-10, 03:40 PM
But Nick has been playing for 10 years. Can anyone name a single moment from him that stood out?
The same might be said about many Expo/National players from the same period.

I'm A Wenner!
02-02-10, 03:49 PM
But Nick has been playing for 10 years. Can anyone name a single moment from him that stood out?

Who cares? He's one of the very best players in baseball at getting on base. That's a lot more important that what you remember about him.

OldYankeeFan
02-02-10, 03:49 PM
Far too many people are considering NJ better than Matsui and making it as if it's a no-brainer. I just don't see it like that.I know I never even compared NJ with Matsui. I think the comp that matters is NJ to Damon who would have been this years DH and who NJ is replacing in the #2 hole.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 03:49 PM
The same might be said about many Expo/National players from the same period.

You can include his time with the Yankees, too.

I'm A Wenner!
02-02-10, 03:49 PM
I figure around 28 for Curtis, 10 for Nick and 2 for Gardner.
But would be very happy if it were more in all three cases.

Granderson moves into a better HR park: hits fewer home runs.

OldYankeeFan
02-02-10, 03:56 PM
But Nick has been playing for 10 years. Can anyone name a single moment from him that stood out?I have never had a problem with guys who quietly go about their job of getting on base 40% of the time.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 04:01 PM
I have never had a problem with guys who quietly go about their job of getting on base 40% of the time.

You shouldn't have a problem with that.
But do you have a problem with guys who hit .290 with 25 homers and 105 rbis, get huge postseason hits and drive in 6 runs in the deciding World Series game? Because that's who he is replacing.

THEBOSS84
02-02-10, 04:02 PM
Granderson moves into a better HR park: hits fewer home runs.

Swisher HR at home in 2009: 8
Swisher HR on road in 2009: 21

Things happen without a good explanation.

Yankee Tripper
02-02-10, 04:03 PM
Granderson moves into a better HR park: hits fewer home runs.He'd never hit more than 23 before last year. he might explode in NYS or his "true" Hr level could be somewhere around 25 give or take. We'll soon find out.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 04:13 PM
Granderson moves into a better HR park: hits fewer home runs.

What does the all-knowing computer of I'm A Wenner! say? And if you're so brilliant, why aren't you picking winners in Vegas instead of wasting your time arguing with people in here over whether a guy will hit 28 or 33 homers?

Yankee Tripper
02-02-10, 04:15 PM
You shouldn't have a problem with that.
But do you have a problem with guys who hit .290 with 25 homers and 105 rbis, get huge postseason hits and drive in 6 runs in the deciding World Series game? Because that's who he is replacing.
But will Matsui still be that guy? He's 36 and has 2 bum knees. I love what he did for the Yankees while he was here and wish him luck and good health in LAA but it's about the future right now, not the past.

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 04:29 PM
But will Matsui still be that guy? He's 36 and has 2 bum knees. I love what he did for the Yankees while he was here and wish him luck and good health in LAA but it's about the future right now, not the past.

Fair question. But he looked pretty damn good last year, when he was still recovering from knee surgery.
I wouldn't be surprised if he was similarly good this year

Think of this lineup: Jeter/Damon/Tex/A-Rod/Matsui/Posada/Granderson/Cano/ Swisher. One of the greatest lineups of all time. And they could have had it if they wanted it.

This one is decent, but not an all-time great: Jeter/Johnson/Tex/A-Rod/Granderson/Posada/Cano/Swisher/Gardner.

gold23
02-02-10, 04:30 PM
But will Matsui still be that guy? He's 36 and has 2 bum knees. I love what he did for the Yankees while he was here and wish him luck and good health in LAA but it's about the future right now, not the past.

Yep. The chances of him replicating that- as he ages and continues to play on a rapidly deteriorating body- are slim.

OldYankeeFan
02-02-10, 04:54 PM
You shouldn't have a problem with that.
But do you have a problem with guys who hit .290 with 25 homers and 105 rbis, get huge postseason hits and drive in 6 runs in the deciding World Series game? Because that's who he is replacing.No he's not. Matsui was gone anyway, as he knew that the Yankees were looking at Damon to be their DH. NJ is replacing Damon not Matsui..

Mean Linguine
02-02-10, 05:02 PM
No he's not. Matsui was gone anyway, as he knew that the Yankees were looking at Damon to be their DH. NJ is replacing Damon not Matsui..

Damon was never going to be a full-time DH.
But remember how they said they wanted a "flexible" DH spot where Damon and Posada and A-Rod, etc., could take turns? Now what do they have? One DH who won't do anything else.

delv
02-02-10, 05:21 PM
Damon was never going to be a full-time DH.
But remember how they said they wanted a "flexible" DH spot where Damon and Posada and A-Rod, etc., could take turns? Now what do they have? One DH who won't do anything else.

Yeah, they realized that many of the guys who needed DH time are now no longer w/ the team (Matsui, Damon). Jeter wouldn't take well to DHing anyways (by which I mean that he wouldn't want to), and A-Rod will be in a better spot than he was last year so he won't need it much either. Ultimately, we're just left with one guy in Posada.

teknetic
02-02-10, 05:41 PM
Damon was never going to be a full-time DH.
But remember how they said they wanted a "flexible" DH spot where Damon and Posada and A-Rod, etc., could take turns? Now what do they have? One DH who won't do anything else.

That was a terrible idea to begin with.



and drive in 6 runs in the deciding World Series game? Because that's who he is replacing.

I expect we'll see more of this, especially if Johnson hits the DL or struggles. Sad, but that's life. Johnson is younger, can actually play the field if something happens to Tex, and has a true elite skill--something Matsui doesn't have. Your power projection for him are also off, considering he's been good for 15-20 when healthy.


This one is decent, but not an all-time great: Jeter/Johnson/Tex/A-Rod/Granderson/Posada/Cano/Swisher/Gardner.

An OBP machine slots in the 2-hole and a CF with 30 homer pop slides into 6th. "Decent" :lol:

roblyo33
02-02-10, 06:16 PM
Damon and Matsui get on base at a good clip, too.
I think Matsui's better than Johnson. You don't. That's fine. Either way, your points would probably be better received in here if you turned the condescending knob from 10 to 5.

Let him go. He's lots of fun at a party.

ThePinStripes
02-02-10, 06:22 PM
Swisher HR at home in 2009: 8
Swisher HR on road in 2009: 21

Things happen without a good explanation.

No, there's a perfectly good explanation. Odd's aren't guarantees. That's why they're called offs.
There's a 95% chance (for example) that Swisher will hit more homeruns at home. Well, there is a reason its not 100%.

Otherwise, no one would ever win the lottery ;)

roblyo33
02-02-10, 06:24 PM
What does the all-knowing computer of I'm A Wenner! say? And if you're so brilliant, why aren't you picking winners in Vegas instead of wasting your time arguing with people in here over whether a guy will hit 28 or 33 homers?

I'm a Wenner would never go to Vegas because, I doubt he has enough money to back up his rather large mouth.

OldYankeeFan
02-02-10, 06:24 PM
Damon was never going to be a full-time DH.Regardless of whether Damon would have been a full time or mostly full time DH, NJ still replaced Damon not Matsui.

I'm A Wenner!
02-02-10, 09:17 PM
I'm a Wenner would never go to Vegas because, I doubt he has enough money to back up his rather large mouth.

I love how the guys whose opinions aren't backed up by data gang up on me for disagreeing with their baseless assertions.

delv
02-02-10, 09:32 PM
I love how the guys whose opinions aren't backed up by data gang up on me for disagreeing with their baseless assertions.

You've gained a rep in a week on this site. You should be proud of yourself. :D

JeffWeaverFan
02-02-10, 10:51 PM
Damon was never going to be a full-time DH.
But remember how they said they wanted a "flexible" DH spot where Damon and Posada and A-Rod, etc., could take turns? Now what do they have? One DH who won't do anything else.
The flexible DH spot made absolutely no sense.

ThePinStripes
02-02-10, 11:05 PM
The flexible DH spot made absolutely no sense.

this.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 01:27 AM
Reading this thread is particularly amusing. In one sitting I've discovered the revelatory ideas of: 1) Condescending knobs, 2) whether or not I'm a Wenner should go to Vegas, 3) the difference between an all-time great lineup and a decent lineup is Gardner batting instead of Damon (If NJ and Matui cancel each other out, even though NJ is better)

THEBOSS84
02-03-10, 09:21 AM
Now PECOTA has the Yanks winning the division:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

nnysiny
02-03-10, 10:15 AM
Now PECOTA has the Yanks winning the division:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
i guess Winn was the over-the-top move? how are they losing 9 more games than last year while getting better?

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 10:20 AM
i guess Winn was the over-the-top move? how are they losing 9 more games than last year while getting better?They over performed their pythagorean record based on runs socred and runs allowed last year. I think PECOTA projected the Yanks as a 98 win team last year and currently a 96 win team this year - though that may get tweeked before the season starts. PECOTA either doesn't see the Yanks as improving over last year or the rest of the AL improved more relative to last year.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 10:50 AM
Reading this thread is particularly amusing. In one sitting I've discovered the revelatory ideas of: 1) Condescending knobs, 2) whether or not I'm a Wenner should go to Vegas, 3) the difference between an all-time great lineup and a decent lineup is Gardner batting instead of Damon (If NJ and Matui cancel each other out, even though NJ is better)

The difference between a lineup with Gardner/Johnson vs. Damon/Matsui, going by last year's stats, is minus 41 homers, minus 87 rbis, minus 50 runs scored and even minus 10 walks.
Yes, I think that is the difference between a decent lineup ("very good" lineup, if you prefer that term) and an all-time great one. And they could have had that lineup for a few more bucks -- the amount of money they spent on below average pitchers like Mitre and Gaudin and retreads like Winn.
A lot of people in here thought it was no big deal when Melky left, said he was a "mediocre" player, etc. And they were probably right. But what does that say about Gardner if he lost his starting job last year to that mediocre player. Does that make him less than mediocre?
And I respect your opinion if you think NJ is better than Matsui. I think Matsui is a better hitter.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:00 AM
I love how the guys whose opinions aren't backed up by data gang up on me for disagreeing with their baseless assertions.

Let's see the data that shows a lineup with Gardner/Johnson is better than one with Damon/Matsui.

gold23
02-03-10, 11:02 AM
Let's see the data that shows a lineup with Gardner/Johnson is better than one with Damon/Matsui.

That's somewhat misleading, as you are including apples to oranges here. Add Granderson/Melky, and you have the beginnings of a comparison.

gold23
02-03-10, 11:04 AM
i guess Winn was the over-the-top move? how are they losing 9 more games than last year while getting better?

There is a theory that the Yanks, while very good last year, were also very lucky. I don't know the data on this, other than that I've heard it said by respected people.

DEADSOX
02-03-10, 11:06 AM
Nick Johnson is a better hitter than Matsui, the thing is, they are two different types of hitters. NJ is someone who will see a lot of pitches, and get on base a lot, thus scoring a lot of runs. Matsui was the type of hitter than drives in runs. It would be more fair to compare Matsui to Granderson/Posada, who both will likely bat in the 5 spot next year. You really don't believe that b/w Posada and Granderson, the 5 spot won't produce the same as Matsui? I say they outperform him. It's stupid comparing two players just as is, you have to look at their roles and where they are in the lineup.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 11:15 AM
There is a theory that the Yanks, while very good last year, were also very lucky. I don't know the data on this, other than that I've heard it said by respected people.
103-59, 1st place in AL East

Scored 915 runs, Allowed 753 runs. Pythagorean W-L (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/faq.shtml#pyth): 95-67

They were "expected" to be a 95 win team based on runs scored and runs allowed but they out performed that by 8 games due partly to their runs allowed being skewed by a few really bad CMW starts and partly by them being "lucky" in 1-run games. I think their .579 w% in 1-run games was 4th best in MLB behind Seattle, Florida & LAA.

In "theory" the true talent level last year was a 95 win team, not a 103 win team.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:28 AM
That's somewhat misleading, as you are including apples to oranges here. Add Granderson/Melky, and you have the beginnings of a comparison.

It's not misleading. They could have had Granderson AND Damon and Matsui if they wanted. I've never said the lineup they have now won't be good. In fact, I said that with the better pitching and defense, it might even be a push this year. But Jeter/Damon/Tex/A-Rod/Matsui/Posada/Granderson/Cano/Swisher would have been a lineup for the ages. Would have loved to see the Yanks defend their title with that group.

Jumpboyjr
02-03-10, 11:29 AM
They were a projected to win 95. They did well against opposing relievers/closers in the 9th (how many walkoffs? i stopped counting). They had lots of power and got many clutch homeruns late. Many players had slightly above average years, which, combined, adds up.

But this year, they've got a couple things they didn't last year.

First and foremost, they've got a solid 4th starter (and eventually a solid 5th, hopefully..). They screwed around with end-of-the-rotation pitching last year, while still managing to win plenty of those games, but this year, it should be more steady which could certainly add to the win total (if Vazquez wins 12-13, etc). Also, where some might argue that last year the Yankees had trouble winning games without hitting many (or even just one) homeruns, they've replaced some power with some OBP and base-stealing prowess. Gardner will be leathal in the 9th spot. Johnson behind Jeter will be top-notch, and in my opinion, much more reliable than a possible homerun/double from Johnny Damon. Also, Granderson is slated to have a monster year in NYS, AND he can steal bases.

And we can't forget that A-Rod missed a month last year. He could have a monster year too, no reason to predict any sort of decline, especially with how well he played in the postseason.

I definitely think the Yankees can match last year's totals. Hell, they could even surpass them simply because they're a more complete baseball team, with balances in power, OBP, base-running, pitching, etc. It won't just be all about homeruns this time (though it will still be quite a bit about homeruns lol).

Oh, and Roy Halladay is no longer in the AL East. +1 for the Yankees.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 11:33 AM
First and foremost, they've got a solid 4th starter (and eventually a solid 5th, hopefully..). They screwed around with end-of-the-rotation pitching last year, while still managing to win plenty of those games, but this year, it should be more steady which could certainly add to the win total (if Vazquez wins 12-13, etc).
While this is true they are also unlikey to have a middle reliver turn in a 10-1 season.

Jumpboyjr
02-03-10, 11:36 AM
While this is true they are also unlikey to have a middle reliver turn in a 10-1 season.

Last I checked, Aceves is still in pinstripes, and with more solid starting pitching, he should have little reason to record 10 wins.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:36 AM
There is a theory that the Yanks, while very good last year, were also very lucky. I don't know the data on this, other than that I've heard it said by respected people.

Well, they did have a lot of rabbit-out-of-the-hat wins, and an iffy starting staff after the first three starters. So 95 probably would have been about right. Once A-Rod returned, they were a very healthy team for almost the remainder of the season. That helped the final record. Jeter and Matsui and Tex and Cano and Melky and Damon hit better than projected. That helps, too.

Their pitching and defense is better this year, so that should offset their less powerful lineup. 95 wins sounds about right again for 2010.

Sheffield
02-03-10, 11:56 AM
Aside from the Rays gaining 22 games on the Yankees this off-season, how the hell did the Mariners add Cliff Lee and Figgens, but only improve their record by ONE MEASLY GAME? :lol:

Lee + Chone - Beltre = 1 OBVIOUSLY!

teknetic
02-03-10, 11:57 AM
The difference between a lineup with Gardner/Johnson vs. Damon/Matsui, going by last year's stats, is minus 41 homers, minus 87 rbis, minus 50 runs scored and even minus 10 walks.
Yes, I think that is the difference between a decent lineup ("very good" lineup, if you prefer that term) and an all-time great one. And they could have had that lineup for a few more bucks -- the amount of money they spent on below average pitchers like Mitre and Gaudin and retreads like Winn.
A lot of people in here thought it was no big deal when Melky left, said he was a "mediocre" player, etc. And they were probably right. But what does that say about Gardner if he lost his starting job last year to that mediocre player. Does that make him less than mediocre?
And I respect your opinion if you think NJ is better than Matsui. I think Matsui is a better hitter.

Why the hell do you keep ignoring Granderson? Oh right, it'd create a hole in your very flawed argument.

and 836 runs? really? 2008 they failed to crack 800, the last time they didn't score as much as 836 was in 2001. This offense is better than both.

Don Wrigley
02-03-10, 12:02 PM
Last I checked, Aceves is still in pinstripes, and with more solid starting pitching, he should have little reason to record 10 wins.

It's bad pitching that allowed him to record 10 wins; ie coming in with the Yankees losing/tied in relatively early innings, while the bats came back. More solid pitching will actually lead to middle relievers having less wins.

It's luck for ANY pitcher to go 10-1, and a middle reliever doing that is just extreme luck.

Jumpboyjr
02-03-10, 12:15 PM
It's bad pitching that allowed him to record 10 wins; ie coming in with the Yankees losing/tied in relatively early innings, while the bats came back. More solid pitching will actually lead to middle relievers having less wins.

It's luck for ANY pitcher to go 10-1, and a middle reliever doing that is just extreme luck.

Exactly my point. Shouldn't be a problem.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 12:23 PM
Why the hell do you keep ignoring Granderson? Oh right, it'd create a hole in your very flawed argument.

and 836 runs? really? 2008 they failed to crack 800, the last time they didn't score as much as 836 was in 2001. This offense is better than both.

Who's ignoring Granderson? I liked that trade.
My point is that they could have also had Matsui and Damon, for not very much more money than they already spent. Do you dispute that the tandem of Damon/Matsui would hit better than Gardner/Johnson?

Jumpboyjr
02-03-10, 12:27 PM
Do you dispute that the tandem of Damon/Matsui would hit better than Gardner/Johnson?

Damon would be better than Gardner, but I like Gardner's speed in the 9 hole, so it's not such a terrible loss. And personally, I prefer a healthy Johnson over the likely-2010 Matsui. Matsui was good, but he's getting older and more fragile by the day, and he had an exceptional year for his age in 2009. Don't see it happening again in 2010.

Overall, I'd take this year's 9-4 with Gardner and Johnson over last year's 1-4 with what Matsui will likely produce this year.

R.V.47
02-03-10, 12:32 PM
Damon would be better than Gardner, but I like Gardner's speed in the 9 hole, so it's not such a terrible loss. And personally, I prefer a healthy Johnson over the likely-2010 Matsui. Matsui was good, but he's getting older and more fragile by the day, and he had an exceptional year for his age in 2009. Don't see it happening again in 2010.

Overall, I'd take this year's 9-4 with Gardner and Johnson over last year's 1-4 with what Matsui will likely produce this year.

Johnsons just as likely as anyone to get injured regardless of age. Johnson is an OBP machine and fits really well in this lineup albeit not batting 2nd like a lot of people think, but as far as pure hitting and hitting for power Matsui has him beat and I think even at age 36 wouldve done a good job as DH again this year. Id rather have him DHing everyday over Nick.

If the yanks knew they werent getting Damon back and Matsui was still available I gotta believe he wouldve been back instead of Johnson.

DEADSOX
02-03-10, 12:47 PM
Johnsons just as likely as anyone to get injured regardless of age. Johnson is an OBP machine and fits really well in this lineup albeit not batting 2nd like a lot of people think, but as far as pure hitting and hitting for power Matsui has him beat and I think even at age 36 wouldve done a good job as DH again this year. Id rather have him DHing everyday over Nick.

If the yanks knew they werent getting Damon back and Matsui was still available I gotta believe he wouldve been back instead of Johnson.

Where else in a lineup do you put a guy with an OBP > than .400 and who was one of the MLB leaders in P/PA last year?

R.V.47
02-03-10, 12:50 PM
Where else in a lineup do you put a guy with an OBP > than .400 and who was one of the MLB leaders in P/PA last year?

I think he can hit 6th or 7th for us. Its not that I dont think Johnson can succeed in the 2 hole I just prefer Granderson there because he can do a lot more with the bat and with his legs.

THEBOSS84
02-03-10, 12:54 PM
I think he can hit 6th or 7th for us. Its not that I dont think Johnson can succeed in the 2 hole I just prefer Granderson there because he can do a lot more with the bat and with his legs.

I think it's a lock that NJ bats second. Cashman even admitted to this when he responded to Boras with "we were able to get a 2 hitter for half the price of Damon (paraphrased)".

Hellsing
02-03-10, 12:59 PM
I think he can hit 6th or 7th for us. Its not that I dont think Johnson can succeed in the 2 hole I just prefer Granderson there because he can do a lot more with the bat and with his legs.

As Boss said, Cashman sees him as a #2. (Mentioned this on the Michael Kay show)

If DJ and NJ get on base at career norms, the Yankees will have men on 1st and 2nd base 40% of the time.

With Tex, A-Rod, and Posada coming up to bat, that will equal a lot of runs.

Granderson is going to be a nice #6 hitter.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 01:03 PM
If DJ and NJ get on base at career norms, the Yankees will have men on 1st and 2nd base 40% of the time.

This isn't true. They'll actually get on base consecutively a bit less than 16% of the time.

stazsanity
02-03-10, 01:04 PM
I think he can hit 6th or 7th for us. Its not that I dont think Johnson can succeed in the 2 hole I just prefer Granderson there because he can do a lot more with the bat and with his legs.

while Granderson's versatility is an obviously plus, I love the idea of NJ getting on base more than 4 of every 10 times he comes to the plate for TEX/A-ROD to knock around.

effdamets
02-03-10, 01:04 PM
Far too many people are considering NJ better than Matsui and making it as if it's a no-brainer. I just don't see it like that.
Me either.

blumj
02-03-10, 01:07 PM
and 836 runs? really? 2008 they failed to crack 800, the last time they didn't score as much as 836 was in 2001. This offense is better than both.
Right, but that version has the overall run scoring of the league way down, that 836 leads all MLB, so it's a more general issue. They'll still be working on these for a while yet.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 01:07 PM
Johnson was a better offensive player than Matsui last year. If you don't equate RBIs to offensive production, you will see that.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 01:20 PM
Johnson was a better offensive player than Matsui last year. If you don't equate RBIs to offensive production, you will see that.I'd like to know how?

Matsui eqa .293, ops .876, ops+ 131 - PAs 526
Johnson eqa .293, ops .831, ops+ 125 - PAs 574

At best you could argure Johnson was "equal" to Matusi, but it'd be really hard to demonstrate he was better.

THEBOSS84
02-03-10, 01:24 PM
I like where this is headed...

DEADSOX
02-03-10, 01:26 PM
sh*ts about to go down.

ThePinStripes
02-03-10, 01:27 PM
This isn't true. They'll actually get on base consecutively a bit less than 16% of the time.

The first time through the order, anyway.

They'll have a man on base about 65% of the time the first time through the order though, which is nice.

ThePinStripes
02-03-10, 01:29 PM
I think he can hit 6th or 7th for us. Its not that I dont think Johnson can succeed in the 2 hole I just prefer Granderson there because he can do a lot more with the bat and with his legs.
Kind of silly to have a guy with a +400 OBP bat BEHIND Teix followed by Arod. It would be one thing if he was a power hitter, but he's not. He's going to be on first base. Then you have to rely on the bottom of the order, rather than Teix, Arod and Posada, to drive him home from first base.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 01:33 PM
I'd like to know how?

Matsui eqa .293, ops .876, ops+ 131 - PAs 526
Johnson eqa .293, ops .831, ops+ 125 - PAs 574

At best you could argure Johnson was "equal" to Matusi, but it'd be really hard to demonstrate he was better.

Johnson's EqA was .293 for the 424 PAs he had in Washington, but .326 for the 150 he had in Florida. I'm not sure how to put those numbers together, but the fact is that he outplayed Matsui on a rate basis last year.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 01:34 PM
Kind of silly to have a guy with a +400 OBP bat BEHIND Teix followed by Arod. It would be one thing if he was a power hitter, but he's not. He's going to be on first base. Then you have to rely on the bottom of the order, rather than Teix, Arod and Posada, to drive him home from first base.There is a lot to like about Granderson batting 2nd, especially against rightes, like scoring from 1st on 2B by A-rod or Tex. but generally I agree with Johnson batting 2nd. Especially since Granderson has a higher SLG and Johnson a higher OBP.

THEBOSS84
02-03-10, 01:36 PM
Matsui wOBA - .378
NJ wOBA - .373

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 01:42 PM
Johnson's EqA was .293 for the 424 PAs he had in Washington, but .326 for the 150 he had in Florida. I'm not sure how to put those numbers together, but the fact is that he outplayed Matsui on a rate basis last year.
weighted it would be roughly .302. interetsing it shows the split on the DT card but doesn't show him totaled on the sortable spreadsheet.

Even so Matsui beat him in OPS, OPS+ and wOBA so he's still not "cleary" better.

Snatch Catch
02-03-10, 01:51 PM
weighted it would be roughly .302. interetsing it shows the split on the DT card but doesn't show him totaled on the sortable spreadsheet.

Even so Matsui beat him in OPS, OPS+ and wOBA so he's still not "cleary" better.

You don't want to hang your hat on the OPS or OPS+ numbers in this debate, as they don't weight the components appropriately, and when dealing with OBP Jesus that is especially important.

The wOBA side of things is the way to go here for your defense, and it shows they produced at very similar rates last season.

THEBOSS84
02-03-10, 01:53 PM
I think Wenner is entertaining, but I'd love to see him respond to the previous posts, specifically because of this post he made earlier in this same thread:

http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=6605404&postcount=132

THEBOSS84
02-03-10, 01:54 PM
You don't want to hang your hat on the OPS or OPS+ numbers in this debate, as they don't weight the components appropriately, and when dealing with OBP Jesus that is especially important.

The wOBA side of things is the way to go here for your defense, and it shows they produced at very similar rates last season.

And because of this, you are saying that the wenner of this argument is....

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 01:56 PM
weighted it would be roughly .302. interetsing it shows the split on the DT card but doesn't show him totaled on the sortable spreadsheet.

Even so Matsui beat him in OPS, OPS+ and wOBA so he's still not "cleary" better.

Stop making so much sense.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 02:00 PM
I like wOBA, but there are a lot of things it doesn't count. wOBA only counts singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and unintentional walks. I prefer EqA, because it counts all walks, HBPs, and it includes baserunning and other types of balls in play like SFs and SHs.

It's fair that I overstated when I said that Johnson was clearly better last year, though I definitely think he was better (and that the margin of difference is only going to increase). However, I definitely prefer EqA to wOBA, and my use of EqA on this board clearly shows that.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 02:06 PM
You don't want to hang your hat on the OPS or OPS+ numbers in this debate, as they don't weight the components appropriately, and when dealing with OBP Jesus that is especially important.

The wOBA side of things is the way to go here for your defense, and it shows they produced at very similar rates last season.
meh, the correlation of OPS and runs scored is something like .955 based on HBT and .922 according to BP where EQA is .928. The negligible increase in accuracy is hardly worth the effort and both were as good or better than wOBA from what I can tell.

All are really good enough for government work or internet chat boards.

Snatch Catch
02-03-10, 02:08 PM
I like wOBA, but there are a lot of things it doesn't count. wOBA only counts singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and unintentional walks. I prefer EqA, because it counts all walks, HBPs, and it includes baserunning and other types of balls in play like SFs and SHs.

It's fair that I overstated when I said that Johnson was clearly better last year, though I definitely think he was better (and that the margin of difference is only going to increase). However, I definitely prefer EqA to wOBA, and my use of EqA on this board clearly shows that.

What do you mean by "baserunning?"

wOBA includes both SB and CS.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 02:09 PM
meh, the correlation of OPS and runs scored is something like .955 based on HBT and .922 according to BP where EQA is .928. The negligible increase in accuracy is hardly worth the effort and both were as good or better than wOBA from what I can tell.

All are really good enough for government work or internet chat boards.

I'm pretty sure that's just a correlation of team OPS and team EQA compared to runs scored. On and individual basis, EQA is the best, followed by wOBA, then OPS, but you're right, the difference isn't huge.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 02:09 PM
I like wOBA, but there are a lot of things it doesn't count. wOBA only counts singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and unintentional walks. I prefer EqA, because it counts all walks, HBPs, and it includes baserunning and other types of balls in play like SFs and SHs.

It's fair that I overstated when I said that Johnson was clearly better last year, though I definitely think he was better (and that the margin of difference is only going to increase). However, I definitely prefer EqA to wOBA, and my use of EqA on this board clearly shows that.

See, you can be a respected forum member and be humble at the same time. It's not that hard. I like reading your projections and data, but you have made it tough with your iron-clad declarations and belittling of anyone who doesn't agree with you.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 02:14 PM
What do you mean by "baserunning?"

wOBA includes both SB and CS.

The calculations I've seen for wOBA are:

HR 1.70, 3B 1.37, 2B 1.08, 1B 0.77, NIBB 0.62.

If that's not what it is, then I'm mistaken. Is it something else?

Snatch Catch
02-03-10, 02:27 PM
The calculations I've seen for wOBA are:

HR 1.70, 3B 1.37, 2B 1.08, 1B 0.77, NIBB 0.62.

If that's not what it is, then I'm mistaken. Is it something else?

Appelman includes SB, CS, and HBP, but not IBB, in the wOBA numbers that everyone is pulling.

It's very, very similar to EqA.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 02:53 PM
Was NJ better than Matsui last year? No. They were about equal, as demonstrated by their similar wOBAs, EQAs, and WARs.

(for mean linquine, here are explanations of these stats.
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml - wOBA
http://baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EQA - EQA
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/ - WARs, scroll down do the bottom to read the series on explanations on how WAR is calculated.

Mean Linguine, wOBA and EQA are the best measures of total offensive value. They have the highest correlation to runs scored. Obviously counting stats (homeruns, rbis, hits) are stupid to reference because they penalize players based on playing time and playing style {players that walk a lot don't get as many at-bats, so in turn they get less counting stats, aside from walks that is}. So in the future, use wOBA and EQA to see how good a player is offensively. If you don't trust them, then use OPS.)

But that does not answer the question, who is the better player? For that, we have to look at not actual production (affected by luck) but expected production based on true talent level.

so: 2009 wOBAs: .378 (matsui), .373 (NJ)
Is there anything in their offensive performances that would make these two numbers represent their offensive true talent level inaccurately? Yes.

First, we will look at Matsui:
In 2009, Matsui posted an iso (isolated power) of .235, the highest of his career, and over a hundred points higher than 2008. What was the reason behind this power jump? Did he change his approach for more power? Well in part he did, hitting more flyballs than ever. But he also had luck in his side. He had a 17.4% HR/FB, the highest in his career. But you might say, how much of this was due to the New Yankee Stadium? What I can tell you is that Matsui has a career HR/FB of 13.4%. Given that when players get older, they lose batspeed, we could have expected Matsui to posted a HR/FB around 12% in 2009. Throw in a 1 % increase for the New Yankee Stadium (does not increase HR/FB by 8 percent, since he plays a little over half his games there it would have to be 8 percent to account for the 4 percent jump in 2009 HR/FB over career HR/FB), and we could have expected Matsui to have a HR/FB around 13%. So what was his true talent in terms of power? Around a .190 iso, or his career iso, instead of his .235 career high iso. But you might say, what about his lowish BABIP? If you did say that, good point. I think it's fair to say he should have had a BABIP around .300, just below his career average.
So when we calculate his true talent level wOBA using these accounted for factors, we get a wOBA of about .365. This is his true offensive talent level, and it's probably quite generous, because I factored in little age-related regression.

On to NJ. 2009 wOBA of .373. Were they any factors in his performance that would make this number represent his true talent level inaccurately?

One factor stands out. Again, it's the power, or iso. In 2009, NJ posted an iso of .114, much lower than his career iso of .174, and previous 3 year average of .210. So what accounted for his power drop? Wrist injury. Wrist injuries typically sap power for about one year. And since some of you probably think he will have a penalty to power in the future, I'll conservatively say his true talent iso is about his career average of .174.
But you might say, what about his highish BABIP of .342? Well, that would be a good point. Because he has always been a high BABIP hitter, I think it's safe to say his BABIP should have been around .315, which is conservative.
But there's more. He also had a significant walks dropoff, which I think is also attributable to the wrist injury, because his bat control might not have been as great, or pitchers were more aggresive because of the lack of power. So I'll give him a slight uptick in the plate discipline department.
With all of these factors accounted for, NJ should have had a wOBA around .390 (about his true talent offensive level).

So Matsui is really a .365 wOBA player (for 2009, he's worse than that in the future because of age, probably around .360) and NJ is really a .390 wOBA player. The difference between these two is about 1.3 wins to the Yankees.
And I think it's very reasonable to say that their injury issues cancel each other's out.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 05:27 PM
Was NJ better than Matsui last year? No. They were about equal, as demonstrated by their similar wOBAs, EQAs, and WARs.

(for mean linquine, here are explanations of these stats.
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml - wOBA
http://baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EQA - EQA
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/ - WARs, scroll down do the bottom to read the series on explanations on how WAR is calculated.

Mean Linguine, wOBA and EQA are the best measures of total offensive value. They have the highest correlation to runs scored. Obviously counting stats (homeruns, rbis, hits) are stupid to reference because they penalize players based on playing time and playing style {players that walk a lot don't get as many at-bats, so in turn they get less counting stats, aside from walks that is}. So in the future, use wOBA and EQA to see how good a player is offensively. If you don't trust them, then use OPS.)

But that does not answer the question, who is the better player? For that, we have to look at not actual production (affected by luck) but expected production based on true talent level.

so: 2009 wOBAs: .378 (matsui), .373 (NJ)
Is there anything in their offensive performances that would make these two numbers represent their offensive true talent level inaccurately? Yes.

First, we will look at Matsui:
In 2009, Matsui posted an iso (isolated power) of .235, the highest of his career, and over a hundred points higher than 2008. What was the reason behind this power jump? Did he change his approach for more power? Well in part he did, hitting more flyballs than ever. But he also had luck in his side. He had a 17.4% HR/FB, the highest in his career. But you might say, how much of this was due to the New Yankee Stadium? What I can tell you is that Matsui has a career HR/FB of 13.4%. Given that when players get older, they lose batspeed, we could have expected Matsui to posted a HR/FB around 12% in 2009. Throw in a 1 % increase for the New Yankee Stadium (does not increase HR/FB by 8 percent, since he plays a little over half his games there it would have to be 8 percent to account for the 4 percent jump in 2009 HR/FB over career HR/FB), and we could have expected Matsui to have a HR/FB around 13%. So what was his true talent in terms of power? Around a .190 iso, or his career iso, instead of his .235 career high iso. But you might say, what about his lowish BABIP? If you did say that, good point. I think it's fair to say he should have had a BABIP around .300, just below his career average.
So when we calculate his true talent level wOBA using these accounted for factors, we get a wOBA of about .365. This is his true offensive talent level, and it's probably quite generous, because I factored in little age-related regression.

On to NJ. 2009 wOBA of .373. Were they any factors in his performance that would make this number represent his true talent level inaccurately?

One factor stands out. Again, it's the power, or iso. In 2009, NJ posted an iso of .114, much lower than his career iso of .174, and previous 3 year average of .210. So what accounted for his power drop? Wrist injury. Wrist injuries typically sap power for about one year. And since some of you probably think he will have a penalty to power in the future, I'll conservatively say his true talent iso is about his career average of .174.
But you might say, what about his highish BABIP of .342? Well, that would be a good point. Because he has always been a high BABIP hitter, I think it's safe to say his BABIP should have been around .315, which is conservative.
But there's more. He also had a significant walks dropoff, which I think is also attributable to the wrist injury, because his bat control might not have been as great, or pitchers were more aggresive because of the lack of power. So I'll give him a slight uptick in the plate discipline department.
With all of these factors accounted for, NJ should have had a wOBA around .390 (about his true talent offensive level).

So Matsui is really a .365 wOBA player (for 2009, he's worse than that in the future because of age, probably around .360) and NJ is really a .390 wOBA player. The difference between these two is about 1.3 wins to the Yankees.
And I think it's very reasonable to say that their injury issues cancel each other's out.

That was a fantastic report. That had to take a lot of time, so I appreciate your effort.
But there's one thing that computers can't account for: a player's heart. What does the cook do when the kitchen gets hot?
You already know how Matsui handles the spotlight. How he pounded Pedro in big games even when Pedro was still Pedro. How he rose to big occasions, whether it was an opening day grand slam, or a World Series clinching 6-rbi game, or a home run in Japan with all the eyes watching, or another big hit in the late innings when another silly manager chose to bring in a lefty. How he hit .312 in the postseason, including an insane .389 in the World Series. When others grip the bat into sawdust, Matsui is a cool assassin against the best pitchers in the game.
Maybe Johnson will be like that, too, given 200 postseason at bats. I doubt it, but maybe he will.
But all things being equal, like your stats seem to suggest, I'd rather have the sure thing in the playoffs.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 05:50 PM
That was a fantastic report. That had to take a lot of time, so I appreciate your effort.
But there's one thing that computers can't account for: a player's heart. What does the cook do when the kitchen gets hot?
You already know how Matsui handles the spotlight. How he pounded Pedro in big games even when Pedro was still Pedro. How he rose to big occasions, whether it was an opening day grand slam, or a World Series clinching 6-rbi game, or a home run in Japan with all the eyes watching, or another big hit in the late innings when another silly manager chose to bring in a lefty. How he hit .312 in the postseason, including an insane .389 in the World Series. When others grip the bat into sawdust, Matsui is a cool assassin against the best pitchers in the game.
Maybe Johnson will be like that, too, given 200 postseason at bats. I doubt it, but maybe he will.
But all things being equal, like your stats seem to suggest, I'd rather have the sure thing in the playoffs.

Well thankfully, NJ is also a cool assassin. Last year with the Marlins, he OPS'd 1.133 and with the Nationals he OPS'd .914 in RISP.

Matsui OPS'd .947 in RISP last year. So they're pretty even in terms of how "clutch" they are.

And they are a host of advanced clutch metrics out there that I can reference that like NJ more than Matsui. And my stats suggest that NJ is a lot better than Matsui, not they are equal.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 05:58 PM
Well thankfully, NJ is also a cool assassin. Last year with the Marlins, he OPS'd 1.133 and with the Nationals he OPS'd .914 in RISP.

Matsui OPS'd .947 in RISP last year. So they're pretty even in terms of how "clutch" they are.

And they are a host of advanced clutch metrics out there that I can reference that like NJ more than Matsui. And my stats suggest that NJ is a lot better than Matsui, not they are equal.
Like Nick's .209/.303/.299 post season line to Matsui's .312/.391/.541?

yankee82093
02-03-10, 06:01 PM
Like Nick's .209/.303/.299 post season line to Matsui's .312/.391/.541?

What, NJ's 67 at-bats from 6 years ago?

A) that's a small enough sample size for me to totally dismiss it.

B) that's long enough ago that it does not represent well the kind of player NJ is today. Long enough ago for me to dismiss it.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 06:06 PM
Well thankfully, NJ is also a cool assassin. Last year with the Marlins, he OPS'd 1.133 and with the Nationals he OPS'd .914 in RISP.

Matsui OPS'd .947 in RISP last year. So they're pretty even in terms of how "clutch" they are.

And they are a host of advanced clutch metrics out there that I can reference that like NJ more than Matsui. And my stats suggest that NJ is a lot better than Matsui, not they are equal.

Didn't your stats say there was a 1-game difference between the two?

yankee82093
02-03-10, 06:09 PM
Didn't your stats say there was a 1-game difference between the two?

A 1.3 win difference. I'm not sure you understand that 1.3 wins is a lot when comparing two players. That's the same difference between Adam Wainwright and Gavin Floyd. It's a pretty significant difference.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 06:11 PM
What, NJ's 67 at-bats from 6 years ago?

A) that's a small enough sample size for me to totally dismiss it.

B) that's long enough ago that it does not represent well the kind of player NJ is today. Long enough ago for me to dismiss it.

That's ok if you dismiss it. But it will still remain in the Baseball Encyclopedia -- along with Hideki's statistically insiginificant .615, 3-HR World Series a few months ago.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 06:15 PM
That's ok if you dismiss it. But it will still remain in the Baseball Encyclopedia -- along with Hideki's statistically insiginificant .615, 3-HR World Series a few months ago.

It's entirely statistically insignificant. It's one game. Roy Halladay gave up 5 homeruns some games and Jeff Mathis was a stud some games. Does this mean Roy Halladay sucks and Jeff Mathis is awesome? No. It's one game.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 06:42 PM
It's entirely statistically insignificant. It's one game. Roy Halladay gave up 5 homeruns some games and Jeff Mathis was a stud some games. Does this mean Roy Halladay sucks and Jeff Mathis is awesome? No. It's one game.

Matsui is a proven postseason star, with more than 200 abs.
You can't dismiss some numbers and count others, unless it's spring training. Otherwise, they all count.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 06:42 PM
What, NJ's 67 at-bats from 6 years ago?

A) that's a small enough sample size for me to totally dismiss it.

B) that's long enough ago that it does not represent well the kind of player NJ is today. Long enough ago for me to dismiss it.
so citing stats mostly taken from Nick's 2nd best season in the majors is irrelevant but pointing to 161 PAs last year is credible?

Look I like the Johnson signing due to Matsui's age and knees relative to Johnson but the whole nonsense that Johnson is how did you put it? "a lot better than Matsui" is really comical.

I hope Nick has a healthy season and puts up his typical .400 OBP and moving to NYS helps boost his power numbers again but I still don't see why Matsui needs to knocked down to make this a good signing?

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 06:48 PM
so citing stats mostly taken from Nick's 2nd best season in the majors is irrelevant but pointing to 161 PAs last year is credible?

Look I like the Johnson signing due to Matsui's age and knees relative to Johnson but the whole nonsense that Johnson is how did you put it? "a lot better than Matsui" is really comical.

I hope Nick has a healthy season and puts up his typical .400 OBP and moving to NYS helps boost his power numbers again but I still don't see why Matsui needs to knocked down to make this a good signing?

Agreed.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 07:07 PM
so citing stats mostly taken from Nick's 2nd best season in the majors is irrelevant but pointing to 161 PAs last year is credible?

Look I like the Johnson signing due to Matsui's age and knees relative to Johnson but the whole nonsense that Johnson is how did you put it? "a lot better than Matsui" is really comical.

I hope Nick has a healthy season and puts up his typical .400 OBP and moving to NYS helps boost his power numbers again but I still don't see why Matsui needs to knocked down to make this a good signing?

I'm not sure what you're referring to. I cited stats from last year from both players. Last year was the fourth best season of NJ's career. And NJ has been clutch for years now. Just as clutch as Matsui. He's better than Matsui.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 08:30 PM
Clutch is a myth.

BobLoblaw
02-03-10, 08:54 PM
Clutch is a myth.

You're a myth.

Yankee Tripper
02-03-10, 09:08 PM
You're a myth.Sweet! Can I be the Minotaur?

BobLoblaw
02-03-10, 09:14 PM
Sweet! Can I be the Minotaur?

Sure, and I'll be a unicorn and I heard ARod has dibs on the centaur

Jumpboyjr
02-03-10, 09:17 PM
Sure, and I'll be a unicorn and I heard ARod has dibs on the centaur

That gave me a good chuckle, thanks for that.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 09:34 PM
Mythical creatures are awesome.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 09:35 PM
That was a fantastic report. That had to take a lot of time, so I appreciate your effort.
But there's one thing that computers can't account for: a player's heart. What does the cook do when the kitchen gets hot?
You already know how Matsui handles the spotlight. How he pounded Pedro in big games even when Pedro was still Pedro. How he rose to big occasions, whether it was an opening day grand slam, or a World Series clinching 6-rbi game, or a home run in Japan with all the eyes watching, or another big hit in the late innings when another silly manager chose to bring in a lefty. How he hit .312 in the postseason, including an insane .389 in the World Series. When others grip the bat into sawdust, Matsui is a cool assassin against the best pitchers in the game.
Maybe Johnson will be like that, too, given 200 postseason at bats. I doubt it, but maybe he will.
But all things being equal, like your stats seem to suggest, I'd rather have the sure thing in the playoffs.

I can't tell if this post is a parody or not.

K-W
02-03-10, 10:06 PM
You don't remember Matsui batting 1.000 in the playoffs?

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 10:29 PM
I can't tell if this post is a parody or not.

Wenner, plug in your computer and show me how Johnson with his .210 average in the playoffs is better than Matsui with his .312 average in the playoffs and .389 average in the World Series.

And I'm still waiting for your stats that show the tandem of Gardner/Johnson is better than Damon/Matsui.

This is a serious question, I'm not trying to be wise: Have you ever played the game? Because you treat the game like Calculus. There's a lot more to the game than theorems and charts. In the '70s, Munson got annoyed that Fisk was getting so much attention for his assists. So after every strikeout, Munson intentionally dropped the ball so he could throw out the runner at first and get an assist. You probably would have looked at the boxscores and been impressed by how much he improved his defense.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 10:30 PM
You don't remember Matsui batting 1.000 in the playoffs?

He damn near hit that much in the World Series, but you probably forgot, it being 13 weeks ago and everything.

ThePinStripes
02-03-10, 10:32 PM
Wenner, plug in your computer and show me how Johnson with his .210 average in the playoffs is better than Matsui with his .312 average in the playoffs and .389 average in the World Series.

And I'm still waiting for your stats that show the tandem of Gardner/Johnson is better than Damon/Matsui.

This is a serious question, I'm not trying to be wise: Have you ever played the game? Because you treat the game like Calculus. There's a lot more to the game than theorems and charts. In the '70s, Munson got annoyed that Fisk was getting so much attention for his assists. So after every strikeout, Munson intentionally dropped the ball so he could throw out the runner at first and get an assist. You probably would looked at the boxscores and been impressed by how much he improved his defense.

Says the guy comparing playoff stats. You'd think Yankee fans of all people would stop doing that because it's meaningless.

delv
02-03-10, 10:33 PM
Wenner, plug in your computer and show me how Johnson with his .210 average in the playoffs is better than Matsui with his .312 average in the playoffs and .389 average in the World Series.

And I'm still waiting for your stats that show the tandem of Gardner/Johnson is better than Damon/Matsui.

This is a serious question, I'm not trying to be wise: Have you ever played the game? Because you treat the game like Calculus. There's a lot more to the game than theorems and charts. In the '70s, Munson got annoyed that Fisk was getting so much attention for his assists. So after every strikeout, Munson intentionally dropped the ball so he could throw out the runner at first and get an assist. You probably would looked at the boxscores and been impressed by how much he improved his defense.

assists are counting stats..., so Wenner wouldn't make much of them. :D

Anyways, lol @ "have you ever played the game?" All I do is fantasize about playing softball this coming summer. Fixed my swing and everything, like GGBG and Willie Hayes. I'll let you guys know how I do, offering my slash-numbers, and you can adjust them to OPS+ assuming NYS as my park.

wileedog
02-03-10, 10:38 PM
Wenner, plug in your computer and show me how Johnson with his .210 average in the playoffs is better than Matsui with his .312 average in the playoffs and .389 average in the World Series..

What were A-Rod's averages before this post-season?

yankee82093
02-03-10, 10:47 PM
Matsui is a proven postseason star, with more than 200 abs.
You can't dismiss some numbers and count others, unless it's spring training. Otherwise, they all count.

This is not true. I can dismiss anything that doesn't have a big enough sample size. This applies to everything in life, not just baseball.

delv
02-03-10, 10:53 PM
This is not true. I can dismiss anything that doesn't have a big enough sample size. This applies to everything in life, not just baseball.

So I take it you're a T&A-man?

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 10:57 PM
What were A-Rod's averages before this post-season?

Better than .210 and not as good as .320.
Johnson might do great in the playoffs, I hope he does. But he hasn't so far. And you can be pretty confident, based on Matsui's history in big moments, that he would do well.
I think Matsui's a better hitter than Johnson. Others disagree, and that's fine. But these comments about Johnson being so much better, it's not even close, don't match what we have seen on the field for the last 8 seasons.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:02 PM
Says the guy comparing playoff stats. You'd think Yankee fans of all people would stop doing that because it's meaningless.

Matsui didn't compile his playoff stats in 12 at bats. It's more than 200 now. That's more than a reasonable sample size. And he's not a one trick pony. He got huge hits off top pitchers during the regular seasons, too. The guy is a fearless hitter. I'm a Matsui fan, so I will defend him. I hope Nick does well, too.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 11:04 PM
Wenner, plug in your computer and show me how Johnson with his .210 average in the playoffs is better than Matsui with his .312 average in the playoffs and .389 average in the World Series.

And I'm still waiting for your stats that show the tandem of Gardner/Johnson is better than Damon/Matsui.

This is a serious question, I'm not trying to be wise: Have you ever played the game? Because you treat the game like Calculus. There's a lot more to the game than theorems and charts. In the '70s, Munson got annoyed that Fisk was getting so much attention for his assists. So after every strikeout, Munson intentionally dropped the ball so he could throw out the runner at first and get an assist. You probably would have looked at the boxscores and been impressed by how much he improved his defense.

1) Assists are a terrible stat.
2) You forgot to mention that my computer is in my mother's basement, and you probably should have made some sort of Star Trek joke, too.
3) Gardner projects to be about 15 runs worse than Damon offensively and 14 runs better defensively. Johnson projects to be 7 runs better than Matsui on offense.

http://74.208.34.75/stuff/sg/cairo_2010_v0.2.zip

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:08 PM
assists are counting stats..., so Wenner wouldn't make much of them. :D

Anyways, lol @ "have you ever played the game?" All I do is fantasize about playing softball this coming summer. Fixed my swing and everything, like GGBG and Willie Hayes. I'll let you guys know how I do, offering my slash-numbers, and you can adjust them to OPS+ assuming NYS as my park.

Good luck this summer. I'm getting ready for my 18th straight season of summer hardball, after a little hiatus. "Lau's Laws on Hitting" (by the son of the late great Yankees hitting coach Charley Lau) is a great book if you ever want to learn more about full extension and weight shift. It's kept me playing a lot longer than I ever dreamed.

ThePinStripes
02-03-10, 11:11 PM
some people really shouldn't argue statistics.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:16 PM
3) Gardner projects to be about 15 runs worse than Damon offensively and 14 runs better defensively.

Well, damn. That's a scandal. Gardner is basically equal overall to Damon, yet his own coach benched him last season for Melky Cabrera?

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 11:17 PM
So I showed you the statistics, but you don't like them.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:22 PM
So I showed you the statistics, but you don't like them.

I liked them fine. But apparently his own manager, who sees him every day, didn't agree.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 11:24 PM
So I take it you're a T&A-man?

I'm not sure what that is.

ThePinStripes
02-03-10, 11:24 PM
Well, damn. That's a scandal. Gardner is basically equal overall to Damon, yet his own coach benched him last season for Melky Cabrera?

Much of Gardner's defensive value would have been lost in CF.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 11:24 PM
I liked them fine. But apparently his own manager, who sees him every day, didn't agree.

Managers can be wrong, you know. No baseball professional is perfect.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 11:25 PM
I liked them fine. But apparently his own manager, who sees him every day, didn't agree.

The GM seemed to have no problem letting Damon leave.

wileedog
02-03-10, 11:27 PM
Better than .210 and not as good as .320..

That's a cop out.

A-Rod was a horror show for several years in a row, and then put this team on his back this postseason. He was arguably far more valuable over the course of the 3 play-off series than Matsui's one monster game.

How did his past performance influence his productions this year? Oh yeah, not at all.

Also, look up the numbers for Matsui's 2005-2007 ALDS series. He stunk out loud for 3 years in a row.

delv
02-03-10, 11:28 PM
I'm not sure what that is.

:giveup:


google, my man

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 11:28 PM
Arguably? Rodriguez was much more valuable than Matsui this postseason. It's not close.

delv
02-03-10, 11:29 PM
Linguine/yankee324092834/Wenner/whoever should each offer NYY projections for the 09 season (in the same vein as the NYYFans Prediction Contest) and make a wager over it. Whoever loses has to...

options:
1) leave the forum
2) go out of their way to actively support and back every argument the other person says for a month
3) buy the other person the star trek movies dvd set
4) buy the other person HGH
5) ?

ThePinStripes
02-03-10, 11:30 PM
Mean Linguine just got told.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:33 PM
That's a cop out.

A-Rod was a horror show for several years in a row, and then put this team on his back this postseason. He was arguably far more valuable over the course of the 3 play-off series than Matsui's one monster game.

How did his past performance influence his productions this year? Oh yeah, not at all.

Also, look up the numbers for Matsui's 2005-2007 ALDS series. He stunk out loud for 3 years in a row.

A-Rod's one of the top 3 hitters in the game. You knew he was going to hit in the playoffs eventually.
Maybe Johnson will, maybe he won't. But I felt pretty confident with Matsui at the plate in the playoffs. Didn't you?

yankee82093
02-03-10, 11:34 PM
:giveup:


google, my man

I googled. This is what t&a means.

T&A
Time & AttendanceT&A Tits and AssT&A Time & Action (product management)T&A
Technology & ArchitectureT&A Tonsillectomy and AdenoidectomyT&A Telegraph and Argus (UK newspaper)T&A Telegraph & Argus (ewspaper in Bradford, UK)T&A Turnbull & Asser (clothiers)T&A Test and AdjustT&A Test & AcceptanceT&A Test and Albert (pro wrestlers)T&A Tardiness & AbsenteeismT&A Trending and AnalysisT&A Tanimura and Antle (produce distributor)T&A Trenntechnik & Anlagenbau GmbH (Germany)T&A Terry and Alex (acoustic duo)T&A Textiles & ApparelsT&ATaps & Accents (drumming)


Now which of these were you saying describes me? Was it tits and ass or Tonsillectomy and Adenoidectomy?

ThePinStripes
02-03-10, 11:37 PM
A-Rod's one of the top 3 hitters in the game. You knew he was going to hit in the playoffs eventually.
Maybe Johnson will, maybe he won't. But I felt pretty confident with Matsui at the plate in the playoffs. Didn't you?

A-rod is a good hitter, so you knew he'd hit well in the playoffs.

Johnson is a better than Matsui, so it's more likely for Matsui to hit better in the playoffs.

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:37 PM
Mean Linguine just got told.

Wooooo. Trembling, man, trembling.

delv
02-03-10, 11:37 PM
I googled. This is what t&a means.

T&A
Time & AttendanceT&A Tits and AssT&A Time & Action (product management)T&A
Technology & ArchitectureT&A Tonsillectomy and AdenoidectomyT&A Telegraph and Argus (UK newspaper)T&A Telegraph & Argus (ewspaper in Bradford, UK)T&A Turnbull & Asser (clothiers)T&A Test and AdjustT&A Test & AcceptanceT&A Test and Albert (pro wrestlers)T&A Tardiness & AbsenteeismT&A Trending and AnalysisT&A Tanimura and Antle (produce distributor)T&A Trenntechnik & Anlagenbau GmbH (Germany)T&A Terry and Alex (acoustic duo)T&A Textiles & ApparelsT&ATaps & Accents (drumming)


Now which of these were you saying describes me? Was it tits and ass or Tonsillectomy and Adenoidectomy?

:lol:

The former. It was a joke based on your quote:


This is not true. I can dismiss anything that doesn't have a big enough sample size. This applies to everything in life, not just baseball.

Sure,... maybe not the most cunning exercise in gaiety ever, but it's only worse now that I've had to explain it.

edit: a T&A man would be one who prefers T&A over, say, Kate Hudson

Mean Linguine
02-03-10, 11:38 PM
A-rod is a good hitter, so you knew he'd hit well in the playoffs.

Johnson is a better than Matsui, so it's more likely for Matsui to hit better in the playoffs.

You say Johnson is better. I disagree. Is that OK?

wileedog
02-03-10, 11:38 PM
A-Rod's one of the top 3 hitters in the game. You knew he was going to hit in the playoffs eventually.

Johnson is one of the premiere guys at getting on base in the game. Why will his skills not also translate?



Maybe Johnson will, maybe he won't. But I felt pretty confident with Matsui at the plate in the playoffs. Didn't you?

Sure I did. But next year he is 36 with bad knees. And for the 3 post seasons prior to this one, where he wasn't very good, and this year when he pretty much had one great game and not much else, I gotta start to wonder.

Bottom line is my confidence or yours has nothing to do with the outcome of the game.

I'm A Wenner!
02-03-10, 11:42 PM
Playoff hitting is not a skill that is distinct in any way from hitting at any other time.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 11:42 PM
:lol:

The former. It was a joke based on your quote:



Sure,... maybe not the most cunning exercise in gaiety ever, but it's only worse now that I've had to explain it.

edit: a T&A man would be one who prefers T&A over, say, Kate Hudson

Oh. I was pretty sure that it was Tonsillectomy and Adenoidectomy. Guess not.

yankee82093
02-03-10, 11:44 PM
Playoff hitting is not a skill that is distinct in any way from hitting at any other time.

Blasphemy. It's almost as important as TEh EiGTh InNiNG !1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1

delv
02-03-10, 11:47 PM
Oh. I was pretty sure that it was Tonsillectomy and Adenoidectomy. Guess not.

Unless you're into that kind of thing.:uhh:

yankee82093
02-03-10, 11:49 PM
Unless you're into that kind of thing.:uhh:

I like a little variety. Don't judge.

K-W
02-04-10, 12:22 AM
Blasphemy. It's almost as important as TEh EiGTh InNiNG !1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1

Also, pitching out of the bullpen is a completely different activity than pitching to start games.

teknetic
02-04-10, 03:41 PM
There are still Yankee fans out there who use SSS playoff numbers when judging a player's value? :lol:

ajra21
02-04-10, 04:10 PM
these last few pages have been fun to read ...

OldYankeeFan
02-05-10, 12:31 PM
There are still Yankee fans out there who use SSS playoff numbers when judging a player's value? :lol:There are still Yankee fans out there who use a players last playoff game when judging a player's value.

Mean Linguine
10-02-10, 04:27 PM
You're right. The Yankees might be a worse home run derby team next year.

Except... wait a minute... this is actually a BASEBALL team! Oh, silly me.

Fortunately, there are more baseball skills that produce runs than just hitting home runs.

69 fewer runs this year, with 2 1/2 games to play.

Mean Linguine
10-02-10, 04:31 PM
Granderson moves into a better HR park: hits fewer home runs.

I predicted 28. You mocked. It is 24 so far.

Mean Linguine
10-02-10, 04:35 PM
1) Johnson projects to be 7 runs better than Matsui on offense.

http://74.208.34.75/stuff/sg/cairo_2010_v0.2.zip

How's that working out?