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THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 10:59 AM
I would have posted this in the hot stove forum, but it no longer exists:

Mlbtraderumors.com


<H3 class=entry-header> (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/05/rosenthals-la-3.html)Rockies Could Trade Holliday (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/05/rosenthals-la-3.html)

(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/05/rosenthals-la-3.html)In Ken Rosenthal's latest column (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8143654/Rockies-could-be-in-market-to-trade-Holliday?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=3498), he sees Matt Holliday as a prime candidate to be traded this summer. Rosenthal notes that the Rockies are already ten games back and have very little chance of signing Holliday to an extension. Holliday is signed through '09 with $13MM due next season.
Previously, (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/05/rosenthals-la-3.html)Rosenthal speculated (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/03/rosenthals-late.html) that the Rockies might be willing to go to six years and $96MM to keep last year's NL MVP runner-up. However, all we know of Holliday's demands are that he (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/05/rosenthals-la-3.html)wants more than a four-year deal (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/holliday-wants.html). Rosenthal sees the Indians, Cardinals, Yankees, A's, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Mets as potential suitors. This should provide an interesting new storyline for July.
Rosenthal thinks that the Rockies could also seek to move Brian Fuentes and Garrett Atkins. Fuentes is eligible for free agency after this season and Atkins will be in his second year of arbitration eligibility and is not eligible for free agency until after next season.
Rosenthal also suggests that the Rockies may be willing to accept low-level, high-ceiling prospects in return as they are deep in prospects at Double and Triple A.


(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/05/rosenthals-la-3.html)</H3>
This is the guy I want. Trade for him now and worry about the outfield abundance later. He will replace Abreu in right field and as the 3 hitter on our team going forward. A right handed monster power bat.

I would give up a lot for him and just forget about Mark Tex.

justtxyank
05-16-08, 11:07 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5940&type=batting3

His three year splits show an OPS over 200 points lower on the road versus Coors.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 11:11 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5940&type=batting3

His three year splits show an OPS over 200 points lower on the road versus Coors.

I will probably be accused of combining two completely different issues, but given the choice, I much rather have Holliday than Tex. It's not even close in fact.

YankeesAce4Life
05-16-08, 11:12 AM
I will probably be accused of combining two completely different issues, but given the choice, I much rather have Holliday than Tex. It's not even close in fact.

Texiera is highly overrated. He'll be extremely highly overrated if he and Boras try to get $20M a year for 6-10 years. :o

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-16-08, 11:22 AM
A few points/questions:

1) He is an absolute stud defensively
2) This would require the Yankees to trade Matsui/Damon
3) The cost in prospects might be excessive
4) Home/Away splits are worrisome

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 11:27 AM
A few points/questions:

1) He is an absolute stud defensively
2) This would require the Yankees to trade Matsui/Damon
3) The cost in prospects might be excessive
4) Home/Away splits are worrisome

1. Great
2. Matsui definitely has a market, Damon does too (not as great as Matsui's though).
3. Right now the only untouchable in our farm may be Montero (I wouldn't put Betances there). Everyone else is fair game. Especially Tabata and Jackson.
4. While they are worrisome, Coors isn't a hitters park anymore. Maybe he'll be just as comfortable hitting at "home" in YS?

Metroidman
05-16-08, 11:29 AM
1. Great
2. Matsui definitely has a market, Damon does too (not as great as Matsui's though).
3. Right now the only untouchable in our farm may be Montero (I wouldn't put Betances there). Everyone else is fair game. Especially Tabata and Jackson.
4. While they are worrisome, Coors isn't a hitters park anymore. Maybe he'll be just as comfortable hitting at "home" in YS?

Why are Tabata/Jackson tradable? They're absolute studs. I wouldn't even think of trading em. They're way ahead of Montero.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 11:31 AM
Why are Tabata/Jackson tradable? They're absolute studs. I wouldn't even think of trading em. They're way ahead of Montero.

You gotta give something to get something. Why not sell high on one of these two (especially Tabata who's stock is plumetting thus far as it is).

ShaneTravis
05-16-08, 11:31 AM
A few points/questions:

1) He is an absolute stud defensively
2) This would require the Yankees to trade Matsui/Damon
3) The cost in prospects might be excessive
4) Home/Away splits are worrisome

You could put Damon at first and have him split time with Jason. Not that I think it will ever happen (trading for Holliday.)

In Mo I Trust
05-16-08, 11:31 AM
Why are Tabata/Jackson tradable? They're absolute studs. I wouldn't even think of trading em. They're way ahead of Montero.

For a bat like Holliday they are definitely tradeable. The pipe dream is that one of them turns into something nearly as productive as Holliday.

TheBamTino24
05-16-08, 11:33 AM
2009?

DH Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B Rodriguez
1B Teixiera
LF Holliday
2B Cano
C Posada
CF Cabrera

I'll hear about is a ton of young pitching. Give them some of it and Tabata or Jackson.

Metroidman
05-16-08, 11:34 AM
Coors is still a hell of a hitters park

And he doesnt' even touch a .800OPS outside of Coors

He's basically Melky outside Coors

.274 .336 .444 .780

Those are his Career outside Coors stats. You want to trade everyone for THAT?

Blazer
05-16-08, 11:34 AM
If they can get him they have to. Guys with 90+ XBH don't come available very often. He's a prototype corner OF and will be the perfect #3 hitter for years to come.

YESSIR!
05-16-08, 11:35 AM
I'm on board - get it done, Cash.

I saw Tabata and Jackson play in two games this year in New Britain, and they didn't look very good at all. Combined I think they were like 2/16. Now I know my piddly observations mean squat in the scheme of things, but I just thought I'd throw it out there. I was very unimpressed, and would gladly include one or the other in a trade for Holiday.

YankeesAce4Life
05-16-08, 11:35 AM
If they can get him they have to. Guys with 90+ XBH don't come available very often. He's a prototype corner OF and will be the perfect #3 hitter for years to come.

Only at "home". :o

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 11:36 AM
Coors is still a hell of a hitters park

And he doesnt' even touch a .800OPS outside of Coors

He's basically Melky outside Coors

.274 .336 .444 .780

Those are his Career outside Coors stats. You want to trade everyone for THAT?

Who said anything about everyone? All I said was that I would trade Tabata/Jackson in a nano-second. We gotta stop overvalueing our own prospects. Matt Holliday is a freakin monster.

TheBamTino24
05-16-08, 11:37 AM
Who said anything about everyone? All I said was that I would trade Tabata/Jackson in a nano-second. We gotta stop overvalueing our own prospects. Matt Holliday is a freakin monster.

I agree. Not all of these prospects will make it. And Holliday is only 28.

Metroidman
05-16-08, 11:38 AM
Who said anything about everyone? All I said was that I would trade Tabata/Jackson in a nano-second. We gotta stop overvalueing our own prospects. Matt Holliday is a freakin monster.

A .780 OPS doesn't scream monster to me at all

Thats what he'll be here.

YESSIR!
05-16-08, 11:38 AM
Coors is still a hell of a hitters park

And he doesnt' even touch a .800OPS outside of Coors

He's basically Melky outside Coors

.274 .336 .444 .780

Those are his Career outside Coors stats. You want to trade everyone for THAT?

There's also something to be said for a "home feel." Some players are just more comfortable at home, regardless of the park. He could settle in at YS nicely...

Metroidman
05-16-08, 11:38 AM
There's also something to be said for a "home feel." Some players are just more comfortable at home, regardless of the park. He could settle in at YS nicely...

Or it could be Coors

You wanna take a shot on that? What happens if we trade for him and he turns out to be a Coors hitter? You just traded everything away for Melky v2

In Mo I Trust
05-16-08, 11:38 AM
I agree. Not all of these prospects will make it. And Holliday is only 28.

If one of Tabata or Jackson turns into a productive player for the Yankees, the Yankees will have done well. Some people here are pencilling in all star production from both of them, the odds of this happening are very, very slim.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 11:39 AM
A .780 OPS doesn't scream monster to me at all

Thats what he'll be here.

A nice chunk of his road games come in hitters hells known as Petco and SF's park (whatever they call it).

YESSIR!
05-16-08, 11:41 AM
Or it could be Coors

You wanna take a shot on that? What happens if we trade for him and he turns out to be a Coors hitter? You just traded everything away for Melky v2

Or it could be more than Coors.

I hear what your saying though, and think it's a very valid point. It is a deal that would obviously have to be done after serious cost/benefit analysis. If the price was right, though, I think it's more than worth a shot. If the Rockies wanted the moon and stars for him, than obviously you might reconsider.

Metroidman
05-16-08, 11:42 AM
Or it could be more than Coors.

I hear what your saying though, and think it's a very valid point. It is a deal that would obviously have to be done after serious cost/benefit analysis. If the price was right, though, I think it's more than worth a shot. If the Rockies wanted the moon and stars for him, than obviously you might reconsider.

They would want the Moon and stars
And I'm antsy on trading for anyone that plays for the Rockies.

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-16-08, 11:44 AM
4. While they are worrisome, Coors isn't a hitters park anymore. Maybe he'll be just as comfortable hitting at "home" in YS?

Maybe, but YS isn't exactly righty friendly. Its a good idea though, I'm on board.

ShaneTravis
05-16-08, 11:47 AM
The article also mentions Atkins and Fuentes

Atkins would be solid pickup also. He can play third and first. Hits lefties very well.

Fuentes is a 2.55 Era RP. He gets lefties out. For those of you yelling for the loogy, this guy meets that criteria. Actually, the guy can get either hitters out and if you dropped Hawkins the pen would be top notch.

Blazer
05-16-08, 11:48 AM
If the price was right, though, I think it's more than worth a shot. If the Rockies wanted the moon and stars for him, than obviously you might reconsider.

Rosenthal wrote that the Rox
may be willing to accept low-level, high-ceiling prospects in return as they are deep in prospects at Double and Triple A.

Coincidently that's where the Yanks are very rich in prospects.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 11:50 AM
Now let's just root for the Rockies to continue to suck and we have a potential fire sale coming up.

TheBamTino24
05-16-08, 11:50 AM
If one of Tabata or Jackson turns into a productive player for the Yankees, the Yankees will have done well. Some people here are pencilling in all star production from both of them, the odds of this happening are very, very slim.

It's the same deal with the pitchers. We've had glowing reviews on the following:

Chamberlain
Hughes
Kennedy
Horne
Sanchez
Cox
Ohlendorf
Melancon
McCutchen
Brackman

Plus you have the group including those like Rasner, Wright, White, Ramirez, Britton, Albaladejo, Veras, even etc.

They're all not going to make it. The key is Cashman pumping up the ones he believes won't, and getting better value for them (ie; Holliday).

yankeeman61
05-16-08, 11:52 AM
Texiera is highly overrated. He'll be extremely highly overrated if he and Boras try to get $20M a year for 6-10 years. :o

How on earth is Tex overrated? I've heard this a few times and would like an explanation other than he will be overpaid, which characterizes everyone on the Yankee roster who has been around any length of time. I am talking about from a pure player perspective. Please back this up because I am interested to hear why people think this.

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-16-08, 11:54 AM
Maybe, but YS isn't exactly righty friendly. Its a good idea though, I'm on board.

Neither is Coors.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 11:55 AM
How on earth is Tex overrated? I've heard this a few times and would like an explanation other than he will be overpaid, which characterizes everyone on the Yankee roster who has been around any length of time. I am talking about from a pure player perspective. Please back this up because I am interested to hear why people think this.

I don't think he's overrated, I just think he's due to receive far more than he's worth in free agency.

Yankee Fan in Boston
05-16-08, 11:56 AM
The article also mentions Atkins and Fuentes

Atkins would be solid pickup also. He can play third and first. Hits lefties very well.

Fuentes is a 2.55 Era RP. He gets lefties out. For those of you yelling for the loogy, this guy meets that criteria. Actually, the guy can get either hitters out and if you dropped Hawkins the pen would be top notch.

I think Fuentes could be good for us. I'd like a lefty who isn't just a LOOGY, but a good relief pitcher who happens to be lefthanded. As for Holliday, it's intriguing, but the guy is going to be looking for a major contract on top of whatever we are trading. We certainly have the resources for that, but I am not sure I'd be confident enough given his Coors splits to sign him for 6 years or whatever it will take.

primetime714
05-16-08, 11:58 AM
You gotta give something to get something. Why not sell high on one of these two (especially Tabata who's stock is plumetting thus far as it is).

If his stock is plumetting how would we be selling high? I'd imagine his value right now its the lowest its been for some time. Even if he doesn't turn out to be the prospect we expect him to Tabata should at least turn things around in AA and raise his value.

As far as Holliday overall, I'd love to get him, but I can't imagine what we'd have to give up. Wouldn't the deal almost have to start with Hughes? I can't see the Rockies trading an MVP signed through the rest of next season for anything short of Hughes and with his struggles and injuries that would only be a starting point.

Honestly right now I don't think we're equipped for a major deal like this. Our trading chips right now aren't going to provide the best return when you consider the struggles/injury problems of the following guys: Hughes, Kennedy, Tabata, Horne, and Marquez.

Plus with Damon and Matsui it makes it difficult to acquire a LF right now. I think this is the type of move that would probably wait until the offseason.

yankeebot
05-16-08, 11:59 AM
I don't think he's overrated, I just think he's due to receive far more than he's worth in free agency.
And that is a trend that is going to continue. We will have to sign free agents. We will have to overpay for them. The key is balancing that with the farm system. Which is what Cash's plan is all about. The idea that we are going to forgo all overpriced free agents or long term deals is, imo, a little absurd.

YankeesAce4Life
05-16-08, 12:01 PM
How on earth is Tex overrated? I've heard this a few times and would like an explanation other than he will be overpaid, which characterizes everyone on the Yankee roster who has been around any length of time. I am talking about from a pure player perspective. Please back this up because I am interested to hear why people think this.

His #'s are pretty damn good, but in all honesty, nothing too special. Plus as you said, the contract that he will be going for.:o

I'd like him on the team, but not for $20M a year for 6-10 years.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 12:01 PM
And that is a trend that is going to continue. We will have to sign free agents. We will have to overpay for them. The key is balancing that with the farm system. Which is what Cash's plan is all about. The idea that we are going to forgo all overpriced free agents or long term deals is, imo, a little absurd.

Not sure if you're aiming your last sentence at me or not, but I am in favor of signing Mark Tex.

TheInfallibleOne
05-16-08, 12:02 PM
I would take a deal for Holiday if they included Fuentes in the deal and took Hawkins back with them. Low level prospects are in abundance here, and we could make the deal contingent on Holiday signing a mid sized extension.

Only guys I wouldnt trade:
Betances
Jackson
Montero

Try to hold on to Tabata if possible, but not as hard as the other three.

montrealer
05-16-08, 12:03 PM
I could of sworn our problem was pitching..........

yankeebot
05-16-08, 12:03 PM
Not sure if you're aiming your last sentence at me or not, but I am in favor of signing Mark Tex. Not at all. It's just been a growing theme here recently that we should never give out more than X years or X dollars when there is no way to get the top tier free agents without doing exactly that. I'm a Tex fan too. He's exactly the sort of player you bust the bank on if necessary.

Yankee Tripper
05-16-08, 12:04 PM
Love Holliday but the home/road splits scare the hell out of me. He's gonna get a lot of money and doesn't have near the power away from Coors that he does in Coors. I'd be all for bringing him in but not sure at what cost in talent, money and years.

yankeebot
05-16-08, 12:04 PM
I could of sworn our problem was pitching..........
You're happy with our bats?

montrealer
05-16-08, 12:07 PM
You're happy with our bats?
All the bats in the world will get you squat if you only have a 2 man rotation

Zimmer's Helmet
05-16-08, 12:08 PM
You're happy with our bats?

Our bats will snap out of it. Our pitching has been horrid outside of Wang and Moose.

ksison
05-16-08, 12:09 PM
interesting

yankeebot
05-16-08, 12:18 PM
All the bats in the world will get you squat if you only have a 2 man rotation I don't see it as an either/or situation. The pitching is a work in progress and at this time is very dependent on patience with developmental struggles. Going after Holliday is a longterm move and doesn't have any bearing on the pitching situation so I guess I don't understand why it isn't a good topic of discussion which is how I interpreted your post. Maybe I misunderstood.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 12:21 PM
Our bats will snap out of it. Our pitching has been horrid outside of Wang and Moose.

Our team ERA is 4.23 this year. Without looking back at stats, I'd be willing to bet this is the best it's been in a few years.

montrealer
05-16-08, 12:24 PM
I don't see it as an either/or situation. The pitching is a work in progress and at this time is very dependent on patience with developmental struggles. Going after Holliday is a longterm move and doesn't have any bearing on the pitching situation so I guess I don't understand why it isn't a good topic of discussion which is how I interpreted your post. Maybe I misunderstood.

Yankees have major pitching issues.........Holliday is not a pitcher.......So in that I don`t see him as the answer to our problems.

Yankee Fan in Boston
05-16-08, 12:24 PM
Our team ERA is 4.23 this year. Without looking back at stats, I'd be willing to bet this is the best it's been in a few years.

But if the solution is trading Matsui and acquiring Holliday (in separate deals, of course), are we really going to see much difference in the offense?

shadyridr
05-16-08, 12:26 PM
Our team ERA is 4.23 this year. Without looking back at stats, I'd be willing to bet this is the best it's been in a few years.

Runs scored are WAAAAAAAAAY down this year (HGH anyone?). Their 4.23 ERA ranks 19th in the majors. Last year they had a 4.49 ERA and they ranked 17th. The year before 4.41 ERA and they ranked 11th.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 12:27 PM
But if the solution is trading Matsui and acquiring Holliday (in separate deals, of course), are we really going to see much difference in the offense?

Tough to answer. I would want Holliday because he's a great RH bat that we need, but Matsui actually hits LH pitching. I was really looking at Holliday as an eventual replacement for Abreu in right.

teknetic
05-16-08, 12:29 PM
Runs scored are WAAAAAAAAAY down this year (HGH anyone?). Their 4.23 ERA ranks 19th in the majors. Last year they had a 4.49 ERA and they ranked 17th. The year before 4.41 ERA and they ranked 11th.

It's sorta expected when you have rookies who's ERA's are north of 8.

yankeebot
05-16-08, 12:30 PM
Yankees have major pitching issues.........Holliday is not a pitcher.......So in that I don`t see him as the answer to our problems. But getting him as the answer to our problems wasn't the point of the thread. It was getting him as a longer term OF solution to tentatively replace Abreu after this season. You have to go after players that you want when they are available. Not only focus on the specific need at hand.

In Mo I Trust
05-16-08, 12:31 PM
I don't think he's overrated, I just think he's due to receive far more than he's worth in free agency.

Free agents are pretty much by definition overpaid. The team signing that player values the player more than every other team in the league.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 12:31 PM
It's sorta expected when you have rookies who's ERA's are north of 8.

Exactly, I don't think we could have gotten worse production out of our 4/5 slots, yet we still have a team ERA of only 4.23.

In Mo I Trust
05-16-08, 12:33 PM
Our bats will snap out of it. Our pitching has been horrid outside of Wang and Moose.

The pitching has been fine outside of Hughes and Kennedy. The bullpen is excellent, the 9.00 ERA the kids have been pitching to is the problem. I don't think there is much that can be done besides hoping they turn it around.

smckdwn989
05-16-08, 12:38 PM
i don't see Holliday as a solution mainly because we have too many outfielders as it is. Unless the yankees can unload Abreu or Matsui, I don't see a fit. Not to mention who knows what kind of prospects that the Rockies will demand for Holliday.

As for the team era coming in at 4.23, that's very much due to the fact that the bullpen has been phenomenal. If I am not mistaken the pen ERA is in the low 3's and has logged alot of innings.

As for Big Tex. Powerful young switch hitting great defensive first baseman? SIGN ME UP

ShaneTravis
05-16-08, 12:40 PM
But if the solution is trading Matsui and acquiring Holliday (in separate deals, of course), are we really going to see much difference in the offense?

Trading Matsui and replacing him with Holiday? Yeah there will be a difference.
A downgrade difference. Matsui is our best hitter at the moment.

SINCE77 2
05-16-08, 12:46 PM
I can't see this happening. Holliday isn't going anywhere anytime soon imo.

Furthermore , Matsui has value in the AL only, severely limiting Cashman's options. IIRC, all AL DH spots are taken. If they are going to trade Damon (who I believe is kicking himself for turning down Boston's offer), then I would rather they just replaced him with Gardner. I think we need a viable 1B as this will enable the Yankees to rid themselves of Ensberg/Duncan/Betemit and compose a more flexible bench for Girardi to work with. Problem lies with finding a 1B, not a LF.

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 12:49 PM
I can't see this happening. Holliday isn't going anywhere anytime soon imo.

Furthermore , Matsui has value in the AL only, severely limiting Cashman's options. IIRC, all AL DH spots are taken. If they are going to trade Damon (who I believe is kicking himself for turning down Boston's offer), then I would rather they just replaced him with Gardner. I think we need a viable 1B as this will enable the Yankees to rid themselves of Ensberg/Duncan/Betemit and compose a more flexible bench for Girardi to work with. Problem lies with finding a 1B, not a LF.

IIRC, you defended Matsui's defense recently when I said he was garbage out there. Therefore, why would you say he has value in the AL only?

TheInfallibleOne
05-16-08, 12:53 PM
2009?

DH Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B Rodriguez
1B Teixiera
LF Holliday
2B Cano
C Posada
CF Cabrera

I'll hear about is a ton of young pitching. Give them some of it and Tabata or Jackson.

I like the lineup, but Posada can't catch forever. At some point doesnt he have to move to 1B?

In Mo I Trust
05-16-08, 12:54 PM
I like the lineup, but Posada can't catch forever. At some point doesnt he have to move to 1B?

Damon will be gone after next year, Posada should be able to catch for another year (at minimum).

TheInfallibleOne
05-16-08, 12:59 PM
Damon will be gone after next year, Posada should be able to catch for another year (at minimum).

we signed him to a 4 year deal though. What do we do about the last 2 years when he is 39 and 40 years old? I hate having someone lock up the DH spot, and that leaves us without a leadoff man..although I dont think Damon is a very good leadoff man anymore...

Zimmer's Helmet
05-16-08, 01:00 PM
The pitching has been fine outside of Hughes and Kennedy. The bullpen is excellent, the 9.00 ERA the kids have been pitching to is the problem. I don't think there is much that can be done besides hoping they turn it around.

I understand that Hughes and Kennedy have inflated the team ERA, but it still makes up 40% of the starting rotation.

Rasner is still a question mark; Pettitte has been shaky, and as good as Moose has been, he's only a 5-6 inning pitcher. This bullpen is going to get burned out in a hurry unless the rotation makes a dramatic improvement (specifically Pettitte, Kennedy and Hughes when he returns)

I'm not sold on Holiday's inflated numbers at Coors or the asking price that Colorado will want for him.

If we are going to make a trade which is going to force us to give up stud prospects; I would much rather that it be done in order to address our biggest concern; which is pitching.

Our hitting has been horrid, but it's bound to improve in the near future with Cano finally showing signs of coming out of a season-long slumber, and A-Rod coming back next week.

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-16-08, 01:03 PM
IIRC, you defended Matsui's defense recently when I said he was garbage out there. Therefore, why would you say he has value in the AL only?

Matsui's defense on the road last year was about average, its at YS where he is terrible.

DontHateOnNumber2
05-16-08, 01:05 PM
I agree with trying to get Holliday over Texieira, but I don't think the problem is offense. The potential for offense is there, it just hasn't happened yet. Pitching!

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 01:08 PM
Matsui's defense on the road last year was about average, its at YS where he is terrible.

Which should be expected considering how large LF is at YS.

I don't agree at all that his only trade value is in the AL. He'd be a perfect fit for a team not looking for a long term commitment but wants production now.

27IsNext
05-16-08, 01:10 PM
A couple of things:

1.) Holliday would be a great investment, IMO, provided the cost in prospects isn't outrageous. His home/away splits don't scare me enough to want to stay away from him.

2.) Holliday has defensive prowess in left field. With Yankee Stadium's spacious left field, keeping him there would be advantageous, especially since his Fox Sports scouting report (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerScouting?categoryId=200185) has him as below average in right. In other words, we'd have to figure out what to do with Damon, Melky, Abreu and Matsui (not to mention Giambi).

3.) The cost to get him must be reasonable, because he'd essentially be a salary dump. Whoever gets him will want a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension to have him signed until about his mid-30s. In other words, no shipping off Hughes, Chamberlain, Cano, Montero, etc.

TheInfallibleOne
05-16-08, 01:10 PM
Imagine adding CC, Tex, Holiday, AND Fuentes? That would be a tribute to George Steinbrenner wouldnt it, just go out and get all the best players available and throw them on the field together. Lets REALLY give Lupica something to yammer about for years to come and go to a 300 million dollar payroll!

THEBOSS84
05-16-08, 01:12 PM
A couple of things:

1.) Holliday would be a great investment, IMO, provided the cost in prospects isn't outrageous. His home/away splits don't scare me enough to want to stay away from him.

2.) Holliday has defensive prowess in left field. With Yankee Stadium's spacious left field, keeping him there would be advantageous, especially since his Fox Sports scouting report (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerScouting?categoryId=200185) has him as below average in right. In other words, we'd have to figure out what to do with Damon, Melky, Abreu and Matsui (not to mention Giambi).

3.) The cost to get him must be reasonable, because he'd essentially be a salary dump. Whoever gets him will want a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension to have him signed until about his mid-30s. In other words, no shipping off Hughes, Chamberlain, Cano, Montero, etc.

I agree with all points but would like to something about #2. If he is good in LF in YS, there is virtually no way on this earth that he wouldn't be just as good if not better in RF.

SINCE77 2
05-16-08, 01:14 PM
IIRC, you defended Matsui's defense recently when I said he was garbage out there. Therefore, why would you say he has value in the AL only?



I defended the notion that he was not as poor an outfielder that many would have you believe. The ZR numbers backed me up. However, he is not someone who any smart team would plan on using in the OF as a starter especially when prospects and salary come into play. That being said, Matsui, for all intents and purposes is our DH and backup OF . Therefore even if the Yankees were to somehow pull off a trade for Holliday, it would be Damon who would go since he is our everyday LF.

teknetic
05-16-08, 01:16 PM
I think Matsui would "retire" before going to a possible cellar dwellar and/or a non-West coast team if he felt the Yanks were dedicated in shipping him. I know he's mentioned he'd accept a trade, but I don't buy it :)

I'd ship Damon without blinking.

27IsNext
05-16-08, 01:21 PM
I agree with all points but would like to something about #2. If he is good in LF in YS, there is virtually no way on this earth that he wouldn't be just as good if not better in RF.

That depends on the strength of his arm.

R.V.47
05-16-08, 01:24 PM
Holiday I think would be a perfect fit for the yanks but he is the face of the franchise in Colorado and I dont think they will let him get away.

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-16-08, 01:40 PM
Which should be expected considering how large LF is at YS.

I don't agree at all that his only trade value is in the AL. He'd be a perfect fit for a team not looking for a long term commitment but wants production now.

Absolutely.

YanksFan1992
05-16-08, 02:16 PM
2009?

DH Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B Rodriguez
1B Teixiera
LF Holliday
2B Cano
C Posada
CF Cabrera

I'll hear about is a ton of young pitching. Give them some of it and Tabata or Jackson.

I would rather have Matsui than Damon at DH quite honestly, although that would give us a lack of a leadoff man.

However if we could get Holliday for a package of something like Damon (and pay for the majority of his contract), Tabata/Jackson and some young pitching (as long as it isn't too over the top), I would be all for it.

Holliday is still very young and has the prime of his career ahead of him, and unlike Santana he doesn't have too much injury concern (at least to my knowledge). If Colorado is crazy enough to trade him I really hope we, and not some other AL team is lucky enough to get him.

JohnnyDamonfan
05-16-08, 02:18 PM
I don't think so. I am really not to keen on trading Jackson or Tabata. And plus Holliday is getting up there. He's 28 years old. I think we should stick with Jackson and Tabata because I really want the Yankees to keep Jackson and Tabata. I want to give them a chance because I think there really, really, gonna help us when they get called up. We should just save our prospects and just get Mark T. . I think we'll do better in the long run if we do that.

TheBamTino24
05-16-08, 02:22 PM
I don't think you can take Holliday's road splits and assume that's the type of hitter he'd be at a new home.

Part of the whole idea of home/road splits is a comfort level associated with hitting at home. You're taking his stats from a bunch of different fields. Look at Chien-Ming Wang, even though he's a pitcher, to speak to the Comfort Factor.

How can you differentiate between the Coors Factor and the Comfort Factor?

Holliday's career splits:
H: .364/.426/.664
A: .264/.336/.444

You honestly don't think his splits at a new home would be better than .264/.336/.444?

I love the idea of using the farm system. But you have to give these kids time to adjust up here. Just look at Hughes & Kennedy right now. People forget that while the mid-1990's was a coup for NYY developing their minor leaguers, most of them contributed immediately (Pettitte, Jeter, Rivera). I can make the argument that only Williams (terrible teams) & Posada (Girardi) were given time to develop.

Now we're going to wait for all these kids to develop?

YanksFan1992
05-16-08, 02:24 PM
I don't think so. I am really not to keen on trading Jackson or Tabata. And plus Holliday is getting up there. He's 28 years old. I think we should stick with Jackson and Tabata because I really want the Yankees to keep Jackson and Tabata. I want to give them a chance because I think there really, really, gonna help us when they get called up. We should just save our prospects and just get Mark T. . I think we'll do better in the long run if we do that.

Being 28 really isn't getting up there for a hitter in my opinion (he's around the same age as Wang). Also, he is really just entering the prime of his career and should still be a very good hitter for 5-6 more years.

SoCal Pinstriper
05-16-08, 04:19 PM
The Rockies took what they hoped would be a first step toward opening talks with Holliday about a long-term deal when he was signed for two years and $23 million in January, covering his final two seasons before being eligible for free agency.
No progress has been made in working out an extension, although the Rockies would seem inclined to make a strong pitch to Holliday before deciding to move him.
The Rockies have indicated they are looking at something in the five-year, $90 million range, but Boras has sent out feelers that he is looking for something closer to the eight-year, $153 million deal Miguel Cabrera received this spring from Detroit.
Teixeira turned down an eight-year, $140 million offer from Texas before he was dealt last summer.
The Rockies could test the market for Holliday before the July 31 deadline for trades without waivers, and if they don't get what they want, they could revisit the market in the offseason.
A key for the Rockies is that not only does a team such as Cleveland, which has depth in its farm system, need a middle-of-the-lineup bat, but so do the Yankees. The Rockies would have a chance to get Boston involved in talks, too, if the Red Sox decide they would rather invest in a younger Holliday than exercise the $20 million options they hold on Manny Ramirez for the next two years. There is no buyout for Ramirez's options.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/may/15/ringolsby-could-holliday-be-on-trade-block/

27IsNext
05-16-08, 05:05 PM
So what would be some reasonable packages? What kind of talent do the Rockies need?

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-16-08, 05:17 PM
So what would be some reasonable packages? What kind of talent do the Rockies need?

Low level, high upside talent. Probably Montero and Betances.

27IsNext
05-16-08, 05:29 PM
Low level, high upside talent. Probably Montero and Betances.

I wouldn't trade Montero.

nnysiny
05-16-08, 07:50 PM
eh, i really cant trust anyone who is a product of a launching pad ballpark. the offense is coming back anyway. the Yankees need innings from starters more than anything else

R.V.47
05-16-08, 07:53 PM
Low level, high upside talent. Probably Montero and Betances.

Holliday is one of the top hitters in the NL, entering his prime, he hits for power and average. They wouldnt accept anything less than Hughes or Joba with some other prospects. Especially the Rockies who are short on pitching.

yankeeman61
05-16-08, 07:55 PM
I will say this about the guy - he will give up his face to win a pennant

ppa79
05-17-08, 11:09 AM
Low level, high upside talent. Probably Montero and Betances.

I wouldn't give up either. Those guys are looking great this year.

Zimmer's Helmet
05-17-08, 02:14 PM
eh, i really cant trust anyone who is a product of a launching pad ballpark. the offense is coming back anyway. the Yankees need innings from starters more than anything else

Agreed.

Especially right-handed hitters switching from a launching pad like Coors to Yankee Stadium.

No way do I consider trading Montero or Betances for Holliday for even a nano-second.

apalradio
05-17-08, 04:54 PM
Jesus Christ himself would be hard pressed to answer this team's problems, let alone Matt Holiday.

teknetic
05-17-08, 06:55 PM
Low level, high upside talent. Probably Montero and Betances.

He can stay in Colorado I guess.

MaximMan121
05-17-08, 10:55 PM
Who said anything about everyone? All I said was that I would trade Tabata/Jackson in a nano-second. We gotta stop overvalueing our own prospects. Matt Holliday is a freakin monster.

I'm sort of surprised to hear this sort of argument from you. When making trade arguments, objective statistical analysis is the key--and the absolute worst justification for trading for Matt Holliday is that he "is a freakin monster". Take a look at the *we must sign AJ Burnett* thread from a couple years back, and you have lines like that flooding the forums.

Take one more look at Holliday's stats outside of Coors. They're not that great. I'm all for acquiring him if the price is right--but were I to field a guess, a trade for Holliday would start somewhere around Tabata/Jackson/Horne, and maybe a Melancon type reliever. Now, maybe I'm wrong on that, and he goes for less. I'd be surprised, though.

JDPNYY
05-17-08, 11:13 PM
The Yankees stink and don't deserve any Holidays. They need to work harder. No freaking days off.

THEBOSS84
05-18-08, 01:57 AM
I'm sort of surprised to hear this sort of argument from you. When making trade arguments, objective statistical analysis is the key--and the absolute worst justification for trading for Matt Holliday is that he "is a freakin monster". Take a look at the *we must sign AJ Burnett* thread from a couple years back, and you have lines like that flooding the forums.

Take one more look at Holliday's stats outside of Coors. They're not that great. I'm all for acquiring him if the price is right--but were I to field a guess, a trade for Holliday would start somewhere around Tabata/Jackson/Horne, and maybe a Melancon type reliever. Now, maybe I'm wrong on that, and he goes for less. I'd be surprised, though.

I totally know Matt's stats outside of Coors. As previously mentioned in the thread, I think that now that Coors has moved towards being a neutral park instead of a major hitting park, Matt's great home splits may have to do with the comfortability of hitting at home. In other words, if YS is his home, he'd hit great there too. Obviously I have no way of backing this up, but it can't completely be dismissed. Also noted was that many of his road games come from within his division in such places as AT&T park (SF, I think that's what they call it) and Petco, which are both total pitchers parks.

And for the record, assuming we can sign him to an extension I'd totally give up a package of Tabata/Horne/Melancon.

I am not a Tabata believer, Horne is not completely necessary (with Wang/Hughes/Kennedy/Joba/CC (potentially or other FA) and Melancon is a dime a dozen in our current minor league system which is top heavy on talented right handed relievers.

montrealer
05-18-08, 09:16 AM
The Yankees stink and don't deserve any Holidays. They need to work harder. No freaking days off.


Now ......there`s an opinion I can sink my teeth in.

Toaderly
05-18-08, 09:37 AM
RE: Matt Holliday


New York Yankees. Their greater need is pitching, and a trade of Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon would be necessary to clear left for Holliday. The Yankees, though, have payroll flexibility; more than $80M in salaries is coming off their books at the end of the season.


http://www.bnd.com/sports/story/343703.html

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-18-08, 12:11 PM
I totally know Matt's stats outside of Coors. As previously mentioned in the thread, I think that now that Coors has moved towards being a neutral park instead of a major hitting park, Matt's great home splits may have to do with the comfortability of hitting at home. In other words, if YS is his home, he'd hit great there too. Obviously I have no way of backing this up, but it can't completely be dismissed. Also noted was that many of his road games come from within his division in such places as AT&T park (SF, I think that's what they call it) and Petco, which are both total pitchers parks.

And for the record, assuming we can sign him to an extension I'd totally give up a package of Tabata/Horne/Melancon.

I am not a Tabata believer, Horne is not completely necessary (with Wang/Hughes/Kennedy/Joba/CC (potentially or other FA) and Melancon is a dime a dozen in our current minor league system which is top heavy on talented right handed relievers.

Coors has still been one of the best.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008

THEBOSS84
05-18-08, 12:14 PM
Coors has still been one of the best.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008

Wow, why do I remember reading somewhere that it has become more neutral?

That obviously ruins my entire argument.

JohnnyDamonfan
05-18-08, 06:16 PM
Being 28 really isn't getting up there for a hitter in my opinion (he's around the same age as Wang). Also, he is really just entering the prime of his career and should still be a very good hitter for 5-6 more years.

I guess I just don't want him for just 2 reasons.

1. Giving up Tabata/Jackson(I'd be fine if we could swing just trading one of them in a package deal. Even though we could have tried to make a deal for Marte with one of them.)

2. Just less money that we can't spend on Mark T.(I don't really trust anyone on the Yankees right now as a full time first baseman for 2009. And this guy I think would be perfect for it)

Other then that I have no problem with getting Holliday. (All though I wish his name wasn't so close to Halladay I have made that mistake like 5 or 6 times when replying to this topic.)

O'Neill's 3b + E
05-19-08, 12:00 PM
Anyone who thinks that any team can get Holliday with out giving up top shelf, close to major league talent is fooling themselves. Last season he had a WARP 3 of 12.7, the season before that a 9.3. In other words, last season was better than any season of A-Rod's career aside from 07, 00 and 96. Splits or not, Col. knows this and I suspect they'll want a ton for him.

Thinking that Montero or Betances plus another prospect could get it done is way off. Look at what the A's got for Swisher: Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez (26th best prospect in baseball according to BA) and De Los Santos (60 according to BA after blowing away A ball). I'm not cazy about Sweeney, but the other two are fairly well regarded pitching prospects and Swisher, while good is nowhere near as good as Holliday.

A deal for Holliday starts with either Hughes or Joba type of talent.

I can understand the fact that a lot of people are weary of his splits and that could very well be a good reason not to invest so much to get him. However, the notion that he's not worth a couple of good prospects in A ball is nutty. The guy is likely an MVP candidate if he's playing in New York.

montrealer
05-19-08, 12:14 PM
Anyone who thinks that any team can get Holliday with out giving up top shelf, close to major league talent is fooling themselves. Last season he had a WARP 3 of 12.7, the season before that a 9.3. In other words, last season was better than any season of A-Rod's career aside from 07, 00 and 96. Splits or not, Col. knows this and I suspect they'll want a ton for him.

Thinking that Montero or Betances plus another prospect could get it done is way off. Look at what the A's got for Swisher: Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez (26th best prospect in baseball according to BA) and De Los Santos (60 according to BA after blowing away A ball). I'm not cazy about Sweeney, but the other two are fairly well regarded pitching prospects and Swisher, while good is nowhere near as good as Holliday.

A deal for Holliday starts with either Hughes or Joba type of talent.

I can understand the fact that a lot of people are weary of his splits and that could very well be a good reason not to invest so much to get him. However, the notion that he's not worth a couple of good prospects in A ball is nutty. The guy is likely an MVP candidate if he's playing in New York.

I concur.......but I`ve been here for three years and many posters still believe that MLB is a farm team for the Yankees picking. Alot of people want to give all our has-beens for top players...........it just won`t happen. this is why I don`t want to go after anymore high priced players. let`s work with the farm and go from there.

O'Neill's 3b + E
05-19-08, 12:18 PM
I concur.......but I`ve been here for three years and many posters still believe that MLB is a farm team for the Yankees picking. Alot of people want to give all our has-beens for top players...........it just won`t happen. this is why I don`t want to go after anymore high priced players. let`s work with the farm and go from there.

I agree that the farm is very important and that one shouldn't trade off young players with out thinking, but we are in fact talking about Matt Holliday here. He's the type of player you do that for.

What has frustrated me in the past is when trades are made as patchwork, a bullpen arm here, an average starter there. That type of stuff bleeds a system. Getting a guy like a Holliday, Santana, Cabrera or someone like that is a gamble, but a good one and in the long run likely less expensive than this so called patch work.

Oh and has it always been like this on NYYFans? I'm fairly new.

webassign
05-19-08, 01:12 PM
Oh and has it always been like this on NYYFans? I'm fairly new.
Expecting to trade our garbage for gold? Yes.

bmxstreetrider86
05-19-08, 02:03 PM
Wow, why do I remember reading somewhere that it has become more neutral?

That obviously ruins my entire argument.


because of the humidor, and the fact that some of thier pitchers werent terrible




its still one of the best hitters parks in the game, and the transition from coors to YS, not to mention the transition from the weak NL to the superior AL would likely dent his production severly.





the price in prospects, and then dollars, wouldnt be worth it

swityak11
05-19-08, 05:48 PM
Expecting to trade our garbage for gold? Yes.Yeah, it's pretty standard.

Bad splits or not, the best you can do is chuckle when you run across a post of someone who won't give up a Tabata for Matt Holliday. Like Colorado would have ever accepted such an insulting proposal anyways.

Ericas367
05-19-08, 09:59 PM
I will take M-Tex over they shame of a first base the Yankees have had over the past 3-4 seasons. I love the idea of having Holiday/M-Tex and C.C all lined up in pinstripes once 2009 opening day comes..if the Yankees can move whomever they need to to make this happen they should.

montrealer
05-20-08, 10:23 AM
Expecting to trade our garbage for gold? Yes.
:lol:

ArodMVP217
05-20-08, 11:18 AM
I will take M-Tex over they shame of a first base the Yankees have had over the past 3-4 seasons. I love the idea of having Holiday/M-Tex and C.C all lined up in pinstripes once 2009 opening day comes..if the Yankees can move whomever they need to to make this happen they should.

I think the rox are a little too proud to move the face of their franchise just yet. it was only last year that they went to the ship.

To attain CC and Tex, abreu and Pettitte would be offered arbitration if it was up to me. I would even try to shop bobby before the deadline for some bluechippers. That is why we picked up his option, right?

assuming the rockies don't trade holliday before the trade deadline, we could swing something for him this offseason. Matsui is still a legit threat at DH. Damon on the other hand is alot slower in the feet and bat than when we signed him. If we include a few million with him in a trade, we could get something of value. as a salary dump, we would get squat. here is my projected:

Cabrera CF
Jeter ss
Cano 2B
Rodriguez 3B
Teixeira 1B
Holliday LF
Matsui DH
Posada C
J.Rivera RF (stopgap)

Matt could be 3rd. No Matt; Gardner or Christian in LF

It will take alot to get holliday, probably too much for my tastes; Tabata, Horne, Garcia, Almonte?, X

Tehasguard
05-20-08, 02:44 PM
Holliday, im on board, and i dont care what you have to give up tbh

maybe get dye for right ?;)

and put Matsui fulltime DH

Yankee Tripper
05-20-08, 03:01 PM
And for the record, assuming we can sign him to an extension I'd totally give up a package of Tabata/Horne/Melancon.

Oh yeah if we could get Holiday for that sign me up as quick as possible but I agree with the O'neil guy that a package like that doesn't come close to getting it done.

THEBOSS84
05-20-08, 03:04 PM
Oh yeah if we could get Holiday for that sign me up as quick as possible but I agree with the O'neil guy that a package like that doesn't come close to getting it done.

I would give up more than that too.

Yankee Tripper
05-20-08, 03:11 PM
I would give up more than that too.Fair enough. I see Maxim man threw out those names and did mention it only as a starting point, I guess I jumped the gun assuming that was a best offer.

Yeah even with the bad road/home splits I'm thinking that a package at least as rich as the Swisher package would be called for. That said while Holiday > Swisher, Holiday is under contract for only 1.5 more years while Swisher was locked up to a team freindly 4 year deal if I rememeber right so that does factor into the equation some.

O'Neill's 3b + E
05-20-08, 03:49 PM
Fair enough. I see Maxim man threw out those names and did mention it only as a starting point, I guess I jumped the gun assuming that was a best offer.

Yeah even with the bad road/home splits I'm thinking that a package at least as rich as the Swisher package would be called for. That said while Holiday > Swisher, Holiday is under contract for only 1.5 more years while Swisher was locked up to a team freindly 4 year deal if I rememeber right so that does factor into the equation some.

Perhaps a better deal to look at would be the Miguel Cabrera deal:

The Marlins trade Cabrera + Willis (who they were trying to dump) for:

Maybin (ranked 6th by BA in all of baseball and 10 by BP)
Andrew Miller ( Ranked 10th by BA in 07 and 17th by BP in 07)
Rabelo
Del La Cruz

Plus the Marlins were eager to rid themselves of Willis' contract. I understand Cabrera is younger, but I think that deal is what you can expect Col. to be hoping for.

THEBOSS84
05-30-08, 02:17 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/05/30/heyman.rockies/index.html?eref=T1

Ynkcpt23
05-30-08, 03:11 PM
How on earth is Tex overrated? I've heard this a few times and would like an explanation other than he will be overpaid, which characterizes everyone on the Yankee roster who has been around any length of time. I am talking about from a pure player perspective. Please back this up because I am interested to hear why people think this.

Yeah I was wondering about that too--from what I've heard/seen he's amazing across the board. Defense, power, great situational hitter great in the clubhouse...what's not to like aside from the ridiculous $$ he's going to ask for this offseason?

YESSIR!
06-13-08, 11:06 AM
Just thought I'd post this here. Rockies' comments on what they're looking for in a potential Holliday deal.



Rumbling through the jungle

Happy Hollidays: Clubs that have felt out the Rockies about Matt Holliday (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7311)'s availability say that if they do decide to dangle their biggest star, they are not using last July's Mark Teixeira (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6788) deal as their blueprint. Instead, the Rockies are telling other teams that:


http://assets.espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/65x90/7311.jpg Holliday


(A) They don't need quantity. Since their young core group is basically in place virtually all over the diamond and their farm system is in good shape, they don't need to rebuild their system with one trade, as Texas did.


(B) They would want "impact" back, but aren't asking for a specific number of impact players. They could settle for a two-player package if it's the right two. They could even, conceivably, take one player back -- assuming the one player was in the Jay Bruce (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=8171)/Evan Longoria (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7914)/Cameron Maybin (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7684) mega-impact category.


(C) They wouldn't even necessarily ask for young players. The only condition would be getting back someone they could control longer than Holliday, who can be a free agent after 2009.


(D) If they move any bats at all, they would be in a mode to trade Holliday or Garrett Atkins (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7145), but not both.


All of this, by the way, is contingent on the Rockies finding themselves clearly and hopelessly out of contention next month. And there are no signs at the moment they've even remotely considered themselves done.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos1

27IsNext
06-13-08, 07:06 PM
He'd be perfect for Fenway Park. Yankee Stadium, not so much.

Prison Mike
06-13-08, 09:24 PM
The only chance we have to get Holliday is to give up Cano.

ARoDfan4life
06-14-08, 12:22 AM
Jesus Christ check his underachieving numbers outside of Coors. Keep this guy away from your wish list.

JeffWeaverFan
06-14-08, 03:25 PM
4. While they are worrisome, Coors isn't a hitters park anymore. Maybe he'll be just as comfortable hitting at "home" in YS?
Coors is still a hitters park. It's not as much of a hitters park as it used to be, but it certainly is still a great hitters park. So it is extremely doubtful he'll hit like he does at Coors at YS - especially as a right handed bat.

Pretty much, I don't see how this would make the team much better as I do believe the home/road splits mean something, and his road .809 OPS for the last 3 years is just not good enough. Lets say he'd post a .900 OPS if he played for the Yankees - and I think that is being very, very generous. Is that difference from Damon (.878 OPS this year) or Matsui (.872 OPS this year) really worth the huge cost it will take to get him?

R.V.47
06-14-08, 04:41 PM
Coors is still a hitters park. It's not as much of a hitters park as it used to be, but it certainly is still a great hitters park. So it is extremely doubtful he'll hit like he does at Coors at YS - especially as a right handed bat.

Pretty much, I don't see how this would make the team much better as I do believe the home/road splits mean something, and his road .809 OPS for the last 3 years is just not good enough. Lets say he'd post a .900 OPS if he played for the Yankees - and I think that is being very, very generous. Is that difference from Damon (.878 OPS this year) or Matsui (.872 OPS this year) really worth the huge cost it will take to get him?

I know Holiday isnt the hitter A-Rod is but I remember a lot of people saying A-Rods stats were inflated by hitting at the king dome and The Ballpark in Arlington and I think he ended up adjusting to YS pretty well. Holliday is a great fit for the yanks IMO, great hitter, is a right handed power bat to compliment A-Rod in the lineup and hes good with the media which helps in NY too.

27IsNext
06-14-08, 04:47 PM
I know Holiday isnt the hitter A-Rod is but I remember a lot of people saying A-Rods stats were inflated by hitting at the king dome and The Ballpark in Arlington and I think he ended up adjusting to YS pretty well. Holliday is a great fit for the yanks IMO, great hitter, is a right handed power bat to compliment A-Rod in the lineup and hes good with the media which helps in NY too.

He'd be much better off playing for the Red Sox. He would do wonders with the Green Monster aiding him. Heck, look what it did for Lowell last season.

JeffWeaverFan
06-14-08, 05:52 PM
I know Holiday isnt the hitter A-Rod is but I remember a lot of people saying A-Rods stats were inflated by hitting at the king dome and The Ballpark in Arlington and I think he ended up adjusting to YS pretty well. Holliday is a great fit for the yanks IMO, great hitter, is a right handed power bat to compliment A-Rod in the lineup and hes good with the media which helps in NY too.
Well as you said in your first sentence, Holliday is not the hitter A-Rod is.

But lets look deeper into A-Rod's supposed infalted stats when he was with Seattle. He played there from 1994-2000 and his first good season with them was in 1996 when he was 20 years old. Lets go through the splits:

1996 - Home: 1.067 OPS. Road: 1.024 OPS.
1997 - Home: .922 OPS. Road: .773 OPS.
1998 - Home: .816 OPS. Road: 1.022 IOS.
1999 - Home: .918 OPS. Road: .968 OPS.

In 2000 the new ballpark, Qwest Field, was opened.

2000 - Home: .908 OPS. Road: 1.138 OPS.

Now in Texas at that great ballpark.

2001 - Home: 1.117 OPS. Road: .927 OPS.
2002 - Home: 1.102 OPS. Road: .927 OPS.
2003 - Home: 1.029 OPS. Road: .961 OPS.

So, in Seattle, there is pretty much no difference between his home vs. road numbers. In 1997 he hit much better at home but in 1997 he hit much better on the road. Most likely both of those were just coincidences. In Texas he consistently hit better at home than on the road, but he was consistently still a monster on the road. And in 2003, the difference was pretty minimal.

To me you can't compare that to Holliday. In 2004 he had a 1.009 OPS vs. a .654 OPS. In 2005 he had a 1.002 OPS vs. a .729 OPS. In 2006 he had a 1.132 OPS vs. a .819 OPS. In 2007 he had a 1.157 OPS vs a .860 OPS. And this year he has a 1.071 OPS vs a .743 OPS.

It seems very clear that he is greatly helped by Coors. I see him as a .850ish OPS guy if he's playing half his games at YS, and I think the numbers back that up.

YASS
06-16-08, 10:00 AM
Well as you said in your first sentence, Holliday is not the hitter A-Rod is.

But lets look deeper into A-Rod's supposed infalted stats when he was with Seattle. He played there from 1994-2000 and his first good season with them was in 1996 when he was 20 years old. Lets go through the splits:

1996 - Home: 1.067 OPS. Road: 1.024 OPS.
1997 - Home: .922 OPS. Road: .773 OPS.
1998 - Home: .816 OPS. Road: 1.022 IOS.
1999 - Home: .918 OPS. Road: .968 OPS.

In 2000 the new ballpark, Qwest Field, was opened.

2000 - Home: .908 OPS. Road: 1.138 OPS.

Now in Texas at that great ballpark.

2001 - Home: 1.117 OPS. Road: .927 OPS.
2002 - Home: 1.102 OPS. Road: .927 OPS.
2003 - Home: 1.029 OPS. Road: .961 OPS.

So, in Seattle, there is pretty much no difference between his home vs. road numbers. In 1997 he hit much better at home but in 1997 he hit much better on the road. Most likely both of those were just coincidences. In Texas he consistently hit better at home than on the road, but he was consistently still a monster on the road. And in 2003, the difference was pretty minimal.

To me you can't compare that to Holliday. In 2004 he had a 1.009 OPS vs. a .654 OPS. In 2005 he had a 1.002 OPS vs. a .729 OPS. In 2006 he had a 1.132 OPS vs. a .819 OPS. In 2007 he had a 1.157 OPS vs a .860 OPS. And this year he has a 1.071 OPS vs a .743 OPS.

It seems very clear that he is greatly helped by Coors. I see him as a .850ish OPS guy if he's playing half his games at YS, and I think the numbers back that up.
Holliday's home and away splits are the most obvious and consistent "Coors Effect" numbers anywhere. If you trade for him, you have to be careful to trade for his home ballpark, too, or you're going to be sorely disappointed in his performance. Outside of Denver, he's an .800-.850 OPS hitter.

Coors Field tends to flatten out breaking pitches, so it just might be the case that Holliday has trouble making the adjustment back and forth between a steady home diet of hanging breaking pitches and ordinary, non-muted curveballs. It also might be true that a few months away from Coors would allow him to permanently make whatever adjustment is needed and improve his sea level performance ... but I wouldn't bet premium prospects on that move.

THEBOSS84
07-10-08, 09:00 PM
Ummm....YEAH!!!!

Brick Tamland
07-10-08, 09:20 PM
Am I retarded for wanting the Yanks to trade for Haliday? They'd have to mortgage the future to acquire him, and still, I see this offense and...I just want Matt Haliday in this lineup.

THEBOSS84
07-10-08, 09:23 PM
Am I retarded for wanting the Yanks to trade for Haliday? They'd have to mortgage the future to acquire him, and still, I see this offense and...I just want Matt Haliday in this lineup.

Dude, that's what this thread is all about. I'd overpay for him at this point.

Brick Tamland
07-10-08, 09:29 PM
Dude, that's what this thread is all about. I'd overpay for him at this point.

What is over-paying though? I would not trade Hughes. Kennedy and anyone else would be fair game, but I don't think that gets it done.

27IsNext
07-10-08, 09:30 PM
Dude, that's what this thread is all about. I'd overpay for him at this point.

These are his career stats on the road:
.278/.341/.452/.793

These are his road stats the last three years:
.281/.343/.466/.809

We play our home games in a stadium conductive to left-handed batters, not righties. He'd be much better suited for Fenway Park.

THEBOSS84
07-10-08, 09:32 PM
I don't care about his home/road splits. Hitting at home could also be a comfortability factor with his "home ballpark". In other words, maybe he'd continue to have these splits with his home games being in YS.

Brick - I would not give Hughes or Cano either. I'd trade Jackson though.

bmxstreetrider86
07-10-08, 09:43 PM
I don't care about his home/road splits. Hitting at home could also be a comfortability factor with his "home ballpark". In other words, maybe he'd continue to have these splits with his home games being in YS.

Brick - I would not give Hughes or Cano either. I'd trade Jackson though.



come on boss, you really believe that it has nothing to do with the fact that coors is histrorically the best hitters park in baseball?


and i wouldnt, not for holliday

b_joseph
07-10-08, 10:01 PM
The key with Holliday is that he will hit for high average. Yes the power numbers wont be as sexy but he will at least be a consistent hitter.

THEBOSS84
07-10-08, 10:11 PM
come on boss, you really believe that it has nothing to do with the fact that coors is histrorically the best hitters park in baseball?


and i wouldnt, not for holliday

I believe he's an excellent hitter who is somewhat aided by Coors.
Can he be a great player on another team? I think so.

We would have him for his prime years too. See how he performs over the next year and a half and then figure out if he's worth signing long-term.

Brick Tamland
07-10-08, 10:51 PM
I don't care about his home/road splits. Hitting at home could also be a comfortability factor with his "home ballpark". In other words, maybe he'd continue to have these splits with his home games being in YS.

Brick - I would not give Hughes or Cano either. I'd trade Jackson though.

I agree TB, there are two untouchables in my mind to acquire Holiday and they are Hughes and Cano. Everyone else is expendible. Obviously it depends on what they ask for, but so long as those two aren't a part of the trade, I'd live with it.

bmxstreetrider86
07-10-08, 11:11 PM
I believe he's an excellent hitter who is somewhat aided by Coors.
Can he be a great player on another team? I think so.

We would have him for his prime years too. See how he performs over the next year and a half and then figure out if he's worth signing long-term.


by the time his current contract would be up, he will be 30 already. i dont want an .800 OPS LF who is 28 at the expense of our only shot at a cost controlled potential superstar for the next 6 years



if holliday is moved, it will be in a texiera like deal, say by to jackson, montero, and betances at least. and im not making that trade if im an aging team looking to get younger.

THEBOSS84
07-11-08, 12:17 AM
by the time his current contract would be up, he will be 30 already. i dont want an .800 OPS LF who is 28 at the expense of our only shot at a cost controlled potential superstar for the next 6 years



if holliday is moved, it will be in a texiera like deal, say by to jackson, montero, and betances at least. and im not making that trade if im an aging team looking to get younger.

Not right to call him an .800 OPS LF.

Secondly, you're right we are looking to get younger. That's why we replace the 34 year old Damon in LF with the 28 year old Holliday.

bmxstreetrider86
07-11-08, 12:25 AM
Not right to call him an .800 OPS LF.

Secondly, you're right we are looking to get younger. That's why we replace the 34 year old Damon in LF with the 28 year old Holliday.



its very right to call him that. he has a 793 OPS outside of coors, 800 might be generous.



he is gonna need a big deal to stay, id rather have a 22 year old CF who can put up an .800 OPS while playing premium defense

suha
07-11-08, 12:28 AM
Not right to call him an .800 OPS LF.

Secondly, you're right we are looking to get younger. That's why we replace the 34 year old Damon in LF with the 28 year old Holliday.

Problem is, if Damon comes back and plays like he was before his injury, he's NOT the problem with this offense. I suppose you could move Damon back to CF and bench Melky if we got Holliday, but Damon's CF defense is pretty questionable these days, and our starting pitchers are contact guys who need good defense.

SandHut
07-11-08, 12:30 AM
We play our home games in a stadium conductive to left-handed batters, not righties. He'd be much better suited for Fenway Park.

What are the dimensions of the new YS? Same deal?

bmxstreetrider86
07-11-08, 12:32 AM
What are the dimensions of the new YS? Same deal?


exact same dimensions

The FUTURE
07-11-08, 12:33 AM
we shoulda traded for Dan Haren instead of wasting our time hoping for Johan to fall into our laps. I'm pretty positive that we coulda got haren without giving up hughes unlikes johan who we woulda had to give up hughes and then some. random thought. but i think getting haren would've made a huge difference on this season. just my personal random thought here.

SandHut
07-11-08, 12:45 AM
exact same dimensions

Well, Holliday's power might suffer in YS then. But his avg is nice and he's a guy like A-Rod who has the potential to steal 25 bags a year and hit for avg/power... I'm also not sure how well he'd do in LF at YS but I'd be fine with having Matsui quit fielding and become DH permanently.

Mark19
07-11-08, 12:49 AM
I'd rather have Atkins or Spillborghs for a fraction of the cost

webassign
07-11-08, 10:15 AM
How about we make some room for him to play before we talk about acquiring him?

Maynerd
07-11-08, 04:10 PM
Holiday, even more than Helton, has become the face of the Rockies' franchise. They're not going to give him up for prospects, or the fan base out here will all have their heads explode. It would take a very significant offer to get him. No thanks.

bigdan
07-11-08, 04:13 PM
How about we make some room for him to play before we talk about acquiring him?

Easy, tell Matsui to have surgery. He needs it. You don't drain healthy knees. Even if he comes back, not sure what he will have. Damon can DH and play some center. Abreu is gone next year.

BxBomber44
07-11-08, 04:15 PM
i agree we should trade tabata + pitching to get him. I'm scared to deal Austin Jackson though...another thing to note is Colorado is willing to deal with us. i.e. Chacon a few years ago

bigdan
07-11-08, 04:16 PM
by the time his current contract would be up, he will be 30 already. i dont want an .800 OPS LF who is 28 at the expense of our only shot at a cost controlled potential superstar for the next 6 years

if holliday is moved, it will be in a texiera like deal, say by to jackson, montero, and betances at least. and im not making that trade if im an aging team looking to get younger.

May not need to trade jackson and montero if you include Kennedy and Hughes.

Prison Mike
07-11-08, 04:23 PM
May not need to trade jackson and montero if you include Kennedy and Hughes.

Not both, but probably one of them. Jackson is definitely a bigger chip than Kennedy nowadays.

bigdan
07-11-08, 04:33 PM
Not both, but probably one of them. Jackson is definitely a bigger chip than Kennedy nowadays.

True. Jackson is a tough call. Tabata's value is low now but I thought going into this year he needed a year after that hand surgery. Wouldn't surprise me if he comes back strong next year. Showed in the past a God-given ability to hit a baseball at a young age. More that Ajax.

bmxstreetrider86
07-11-08, 04:45 PM
May not need to trade jackson and montero if you include Kennedy and Hughes.


the yankees arent trading hughes, especially not for a 1 1/2 year rental

bigdan
07-11-08, 06:53 PM
the yankees arent trading hughes, especially not for a 1 1/2 year rental

window

ppa79
07-11-08, 09:06 PM
window

The Yanks didn't trade Hughes for Santana, but they are going to trade Hughes for someone that has averaged the last 3 years an OPS of .803 away. Okay

teknetic
07-11-08, 09:10 PM
window

Speaking of windows, I'm in favor of throwing everyone in this lineup out of one.

bmxstreetrider86
07-11-08, 09:22 PM
window


holliday is a boras client, colorado could give us a stained glass window and holliday isnt signing




even if they gave us a window, and holliday came to the table,we are still signing a 28 year old a long term deal. if we didnt trade hughes for santana, we arent tradin him for matt holliday, who owns a career road OPS below .800 and is a LF

THEBOSS84
07-15-08, 06:36 PM
With the bad news on Matsui's knee, now is the time Cash. For this season and next, this is the move that needs to be made.

b_joseph
07-15-08, 06:56 PM
The Yanks didn't trade Hughes for Santana, but they are going to trade Hughes for someone that has averaged the last 3 years an OPS of .803 away. Okay
2006 - 819
2007 - 850
2008 - 859

27IsNext
07-15-08, 08:02 PM
Speaking of windows, I'm in favor of throwing everyone in this lineup out of one.

Sans A-Rod and Giambi, I agree.

Prison Mike
07-15-08, 09:54 PM
Yeah this guy would suck in Yankee Stadium........

b_joseph
07-15-08, 09:55 PM
Theres that improved Road Power :)

THEBOSS84
07-15-08, 09:56 PM
Nice shot deep to right field...

YESSIR!
07-15-08, 10:06 PM
Opposite field HRs off of quality pitching in YS? Yes please. ;)

teknetic
07-15-08, 10:27 PM
..and there's the popup.

R.V.47
07-16-08, 08:49 AM
I was definitly impressed by that opposite field power he showed in the all star game.

Brick Tamland
07-16-08, 09:09 AM
If Holliday can be had for a reasonable price, I think it's a no brainer. Colorado would be asking for hughes & cano type package and that does not make sense for the Yankees. Even if it did, is this team a lock for the playoffs with Holliday for the last 2 months of the season? I like him as a player and would like to see him on the Yankees but I just don't see a realistic trade that gets it done.

Prison Mike
07-16-08, 01:00 PM
The package that Texas got for Teixera is probably the blueprint Colorado is using for Holliday.

Hughes, Montero and McAllister is a reasonable request. As a Yankee fan, I wouldn't do it but that's what I'd be asking for if I'm Colorado.

R.V.47
07-16-08, 01:21 PM
The package that Texas got for Teixera is probably the blueprint Colorado is using for Holliday.

Hughes, Montero and McAllister is a reasonable request. As a Yankee fan, I wouldn't do it but that's what I'd be asking for if I'm Colorado.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/07162008/sports/righty_bats_are_hot_trade_topic_120080.htm

Good stuff from Sherman today concerning this. According to his "sources" the usual unnamed execs and agents, the Rockies are waiting to see what the Pirates get for Bay or Nady, Sherman says the Pirates are expecting two top prospects and a second tier but nobody is biting so that will likely come down. Also, the Rockies are waiting to see if David Ortiz will be back for the Sox this year which will tell them whether or not the Sox are serious about Holliday.

If we could pull of a trade for Holliday our lineup is transformed, its deeper, more diverse and allows us to do a lot of different things. Id go,

Damon LF
Jeter ss
A-Rod 3b
Giambi/Matsui 1b
Holliday dh/rf
Matsui/Giambi1b
Posada c
Abreu rf/dh
Cano 2b

Brick Tamland
07-16-08, 01:25 PM
The package that Texas got for Teixera is probably the blueprint Colorado is using for Holliday.

Hughes, Montero and McAllister is a reasonable request. As a Yankee fan, I wouldn't do it but that's what I'd be asking for if I'm Colorado.

See, this is not an unreasonable package but the Yankees are giving up A LOT of their top tier young talent. Do the Yanks get a window to sign him to an extension? Do they lock him up in the off season if they acquire him? He can't be just a 1.5 yr rent a player if you give up this kind of package for him.

If this were a real deal on the table, I'd have to think very hard about it before deciding one way or another if I am Cashman. I think I would probably have to say no because I still believe Phil Hughes has the talent to be a top of the rotation starter in this league. Of coures, it only matters what the Yankee front office thinks at the end of the day.

Good post.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 01:32 PM
I would never trade Hughes or Cano for Holliday. If that's what it costs, I would pass.

primetime714
07-16-08, 01:54 PM
I would never trade Hughes or Cano for Holliday. If that's what it costs, I would pass.

Can you really see the Rockies trading him for anything less than that?? I can't imagine any deal for Holliday that wouldn't start with one of those two.

I suppose a Jackson centered deal MIGHT be possible, but would likely feature several other high profile prospects (Montero, Tabata, Melancon, Betances, Kennedy, Horne).

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 01:56 PM
Can you really see the Rockies trading him for anything less than that?? I can't imagine any deal for Holliday that wouldn't start with one of those two.

I suppose a Jackson centered deal MIGHT be possible, but would likely feature several other high profile prospects (Montero, Tabata, Melancon, Betances, Kennedy, Horne).

That's the only route I'd go to try to trade for Holliday. Hughes and Cano are my only two untouchables.

MTYankee23
07-16-08, 02:06 PM
That's the only route I'd go to try to trade for Holliday. Hughes and Cano are my only two untouchables.

Personally, If Jackson and Montero are going to be involved, then I want someone who doesn't potentially have less value away from Coors Field. The other names you mentioned I'm in agreement with. Betances is going to be potentially the toughest call because he could take a long time to get it together and you'd have to have 4 pretty special pitchers in front of him to deal with inconsistent starts his first few years.

primetime714
07-16-08, 02:13 PM
That's the only route I'd go to try to trade for Holliday. Hughes and Cano are my only two untouchables.

Ok then, purely out of curiosity using those combinations of players which of the following packages, if any would you agree to:

-Jackson, Montero, and Kennedy
-Jackson, Montero, and Melancon
-Jackson, Montero, and Horne
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Betances
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Melancon
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Tabata
-Jackson, Kennedy, Tabata, and Betances
-Jackson, Kennedy, Tabata, and Melancon
-Jackson, Horne, Tabata, and Betances
-Jackson, Horne, Tabata, and Melancon

Some other options:
-Jackson, Montero, McCallister, and Marquez
-Jackson, Kennedy, Melancon, and McCallister
-Jackson, Montero, and Brackman
-Jackson, Kennedy, and Brackman
-Jackson, Montero, Betances, and Heredia

Just to play Devil's Advocate:
-Hughes straight up
-Cano straight up

Not sure what Colorado would want but I'm guessing combinations like this are relatively reasonable. I'd probably accept some but not all of those.

Brick Tamland
07-16-08, 02:15 PM
Can you really see the Rockies trading him for anything less than that?? I can't imagine any deal for Holliday that wouldn't start with one of those two.

I suppose a Jackson centered deal MIGHT be possible, but would likely feature several other high profile prospects (Montero, Tabata, Melancon, Betances, Kennedy, Horne).

That basically represents every "crown jewel" in the farm system. It's a tough call because you are right, I can't see Colorado giving him up for anything less than that, but it's a tough pill to swallow for a guy who might not be on your team after '09. Depending on how many and what mix of those guys are dealt, it might be do-able.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 02:16 PM
Here you go Prime:

-Jackson, Montero, and Kennedy NO
-Jackson, Montero, and Melancon NO
-Jackson, Montero, and Horne NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Betances NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Melancon YES
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Tabata NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Tabata, and Betances NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Tabata, and Melancon NO
-Jackson, Horne, Tabata, and Betances NO
-Jackson, Horne, Tabata, and Melancon NO

Some other options:
-Jackson, Montero, McCallister, and Marquez NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Melancon, and McCallister YES
-Jackson, Montero, and Brackman NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, and Brackman NO
-Jackson, Montero, Betances, and Heredia NO

Just to play Devil's Advocate:
-Hughes straight up NO
-Cano straight up NO

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 02:22 PM
So boss, if you aren't willing to part with the talent it would take to get Holliday, why start a thread with him as the answer?

I'm not sure which of those deals I'd do or not but all of them look reasonable from a standpoint of what it might take.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 02:23 PM
So boss, if you aren't willing to part with the talent it would take to get Holliday, why start a thread with him as the answer?

I'm not sure which of those deals I'd do or not but all of them look reasonable from a standpoint of what it might take.

I wouldn't get robbed. Giving them four of our top 7 prospects, or our two best hitting prospects and 2nd best pitching prospect.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 02:32 PM
I wouldn't get robbed. Giving them four of our top 7 prospects, or our two best hitting prospects and 2nd best pitching prospect.
How do our hitting prospects compare to Matt LaPorta? I have no idea really. I don't think Jackson projects as high. Montero's bat may but he's farther away from the bigs. Other than maybe Melencon and possibly Kennedy none of the guys are MLB ready right now so I think the Rockies are going to want at least 2 high cieling guys. I understand it's a bit of a different animal in that CC is a pitcher and Holliday is an OF but CC is a hlaf year rental and Holliady is signed though next year.

I would think the Rockies would need a Texiera like haul to part with a year and half of the face of their franchise.

edit: does that mean you'd include Jackson or Montero but not both?

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 02:38 PM
How do our hitting prospects compare to Matt LaPorta? I have no idea really. I don't think Jackson projects as high. Montero's bat may but he's farther away from the bigs. Other than maybe Melencon and possibly Kennedy none of the guys are MLB ready right now so I think the Rockies are going to want at least 2 high cieling guys. I understand it's a bit of a different animal in that CC is a pitcher and Holliday is an OF but CC is a hlaf year rental and Holliady is signed though next year.

I would think the Rockies would need a Texiera like haul to part with a year and half of the face of their franchise.

edit: does that mean you'd include Jackson or Montero but not both?

I would not give up both Montero and Jackson.

LaPorta is a more advanced hitter than either of the above, but he is older and he plays a non-premium position.

Metroidman
07-16-08, 02:41 PM
The problem is none of us know what other GM's want. Word is the Rockies are just gonna wait till the offseason to see how much they can get for Holliday. If thats the case then Boston's in it seriously too. I dont want to get in a bidding war with them again.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 02:47 PM
I'm surprised Holliday has turned down requests for a long term deal. At least I think Col approached him about it in the offseason. If I was a .364 hitter in my home park, I'd sure as heck want to stay there.

Brick Tamland
07-16-08, 02:50 PM
The problem is none of us know what other GM's want. Word is the Rockies are just gonna wait till the offseason to see how much they can get for Holliday. If thats the case then Boston's in it seriously too. I dont want to get in a bidding war with them again.

The Sherman article RV posted indicated the Rockies might be willing to deal Holliday after Bay/Nady are moved to gage the market price. Cashman should be checking in daily with Colorado, he could be shipped out this month.

Metroidman
07-16-08, 02:51 PM
The Sherman article RV posted indicated the Rockies might be willing to deal Holliday after Bay/Nady are moved to gage the market price. Cashman should be checking in daily with Colorado, he could be shipped out this month.

You know unless the Pirates dont back off their demands and Nady/Bay are not traded.

But anyway why not just go after Bay instead? He'll be cheaper because that article also stated they'll want much more than what the Pirates get for Bay/Nady.

Brick Tamland
07-16-08, 02:58 PM
You know unless the Pirates dont back off their demands and Nady/Bay are not traded.

But anyway why not just go after Bay instead? He'll be cheaper because that article also stated they'll want much more than what the Pirates get for Bay/Nady.

Bay should be a target as well. Bay could be a very solid player for the Yankees IMO. Holliday is one of the premier LF in the game, on a whole other level than Bay. If he is available, he's got to be your primary target. Both would be good pickups.

yanks710
07-16-08, 03:15 PM
I heard somewhere that the Rockies inquired with the mets about a package of Holliday and Tavares for Beltran & Fernando Martinez...so obviously the price is very very high if that rumor is true

Brick Tamland
07-16-08, 03:29 PM
I heard somewhere that the Rockies inquired with the mets about a package of Holliday and Tavares for Beltran & Fernando Martinez...so obviously the price is very very high if that rumor is true

If that is true I don't see how Cashman gets around NOT including either Hughes or Cano.

ppa79
07-16-08, 04:02 PM
Like I mentioned before, I am little worried about his Road/Away splits, but if he can be had without giving up Cano, Joba, AJ, Hughes, and maybe to some extent Montero, I would go for it.

themgmt
07-16-08, 04:04 PM
I heard somewhere that the Rockies inquired with the mets about a package of Holliday and Tavares for Beltran & Fernando Martinez...so obviously the price is very very high if that rumor is true

That's not too bad of a sign actually. If you take out Tavares and the need to balance him (not much to balance)

Abreu+Jackson would be a similar trade (Beltran > Abreu, not over their careers but age and current performance)

Maybe they'd take Abreu+Horne+Tabata for Holliday. They get a LF, pitching prospect and although he's having a down year, a previously touted OF prospect.

Get it done Cashman

primetime714
07-16-08, 04:16 PM
Here you go Prime:

-Jackson, Montero, and Kennedy NO
-Jackson, Montero, and Melancon NO
-Jackson, Montero, and Horne NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Betances NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Melancon YES
-Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, and Tabata NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Tabata, and Betances NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Tabata, and Melancon NO
-Jackson, Horne, Tabata, and Betances NO
-Jackson, Horne, Tabata, and Melancon NO

Some other options:
-Jackson, Montero, McCallister, and Marquez NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, Melancon, and McCallister YES
-Jackson, Montero, and Brackman NO
-Jackson, Kennedy, and Brackman NO
-Jackson, Montero, Betances, and Heredia NO

Just to play Devil's Advocate:
-Hughes straight up NO
-Cano straight up NO

Yea I agree for the most part. Although I might be more willing to part with Betances and Tabata than you are. Still I wouldn't be crazy about any of those deals.

Also I think if we were to trade Jackson I'd prefer a younger, less expensive player, that can man CF like Kemp.

Perhaps a 3-team deal with Holliday going to the Dodgers and Kemp coming here. The Dodgers get the offensive presence they need, the Rox get a nice package of propsects, and the Yankees get a young CF of the present and future.

YASS
07-16-08, 04:17 PM
That's not too bad of a sign actually. If you take out Tavares and the need to balance him (not much to balance)

Abreu+Jackson would be a similar trade (Beltran > Abreu, not over their careers but age and current performance)

Maybe they'd take Abreu+Horne+Tabata for Holliday. They get a LF, pitching prospect and although he's having a down year, a previously touted OF prospect.

Get it done Cashman
I can't think of a single reason Colorado would want Bobby Abreu at all. He makes more money than Holliday; he has an expiring contract and can't be resigned for reasonable money (even if they wanted to bring him back). He's a net minus, not a plus.

So the deal boils down to Horne+Tabata for Holliday, and that's not going to happen.

I don't buy that Mets rumor, either.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 04:19 PM
Yea I agree for the most part. Although I might be more willing to part with Betances and Tabata than you are. Still I wouldn't be crazy about any of those deals.

Also I think if we were to trade Jackson I'd prefer a younger, less expensive player, that can man CF like Kemp.

Perhaps a 3-team deal with Holliday going to the Dodgers and Kemp coming here. The Dodgers get the offensive presence they need, the Rox get a nice package of propsects, and the Yankees get a young CF of the present and future.

I'd be willing to trade Tabata, just not along with Jackson. Same goes with Montero. I would trade Betances too, depending on who else is in the deal.

Lots of talk on Kemp today in the Cash thread.

themgmt
07-16-08, 04:26 PM
I can't think of a single reason Colorado would want Bobby Abreu at all. He makes more money than Holliday; he has an expiring contract and can't be resigned for reasonable money (even if they wanted to bring him back). He's a net minus, not a plus.

So the deal boils down to Horne+Tabata for Holliday, and that's not going to happen.

I don't buy that Mets rumor, either.


Beltran makes more than both Holliday and Abreu this year and he is signed through 2011 I believe. They'd be paying a lot more money to Beltran. If they want to dump Holliday to save money and get some prospects, Abreu's expiring contract makes more sense monetarily than Beltran. I don't believe they would want either player though. They'd want all prospects and young players, not these older- big contract guys.

themgmt
07-16-08, 04:29 PM
I'd trade any arm they wanted in the minors, and any bat besides Jackson. Holliday will bring a WS to NY in 08 and 09.

YASS
07-16-08, 04:31 PM
Beltran makes more than both Holliday and Abreu this year and he is signed through 2011 I believe. They'd be paying a lot more money to Beltran. If they want to dump Holliday to save money and get some prospects, Abreu's expiring contract makes sense.
That's just it, though. They're spending money to acquire Abreu when he is of no value to them. This isn't the NBA where expiring contracts are useful to obtain cap space. Abreu costs more than Holliday this year, and next year he's gone (and without picks, too, since Colorado would never risk offering him arbitration).

And without Abreu, the proposed deal is simply two prospects whose stock has nosedived for an established star with another year to go on his contract.

Colorado would be foolish to make that deal.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 04:31 PM
Beltran makes more than both Holliday and Abreu this year and he is signed through 2011 I believe. They'd be paying a lot more money to Beltran. If they want to dump Holliday to save money and get some prospects, Abreu's expiring contract makes sense.
They don't want to "dump" Holliday but he's only signed through 2009 and has declined the Rockies ovetures to extend - he supposedly wants to test FA. So the Rockies figure they are out of it this year and will sell Holliday now to build for the future since they have a pretty young core. They seem likely to sell only if they get at least "fair value" this isn't a fire sale salary dump we are talking about where you might grab him on the cheap. At least that's how I've read the signals coming out of Colorado.

They might very well see Beltran to Holliday as a lateral move with F-mart as bonus in the deal but I agree with Yass that that deal makes little sense for the Mets and I'd dismiss it as pure rumor.

bmxstreetrider86
07-16-08, 04:41 PM
That's just it, though. They're spending money to acquire Abreu when he is of no value to them. This isn't the NBA where expiring contracts are useful to obtain cap space. Abreu costs more than Holliday this year, and next year he's gone (and without picks, too, since Colorado would never risk offering him arbitration).

And without Abreu, the proposed deal is simply two prospects whose stock has nosedived for an established star with another year to go on his contract.

Colorado would be foolish to make that deal.



not that i disagree with your point, but why wouldnt they offer abreu arbitration?


you dont think he will get some multi year extensions offers for over 16 mil?

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 04:44 PM
not that i disagree with your point, but why wouldnt they offer abreu arbitration?


you dont think he will get some multi year extensions offers for over 16 mil?

Contrary to popular belief, I don't think he would even be guaranteed 16m in arbitration. The arbitration guidelines don't apply to FA's I believe. He would definitely get multi year offers.

themgmt
07-16-08, 04:45 PM
They don't want to "dump" Holliday but he's only signed through 2009 and has declined the Rockies ovetures to extend - he supposedly wants to test FA. So the Rockies figure they are out of it this year and will sell Holliday now to build for the future since they have a pretty young core. They seem likely to sell only if they get at least "fair value" this isn't a fire sale salary dump we are talking about where you might grab him on the cheap. At least that's how I've read the signals coming out of Colorado.

They might very well see Beltran to Holliday as a lateral move with F-mart as bonus in the deal but I agree with Yass that that deal makes little sense for the Mets and I'd dismiss it as pure rumor.

"Dumping" Holliday is exactly what they're doing. They could always keep him for the duration of the contract but they know they can't compete so they want to trade for younger players, rather than just losing him to FA. I'd call that dumping

I'm not sure what the pay schedule is for Beltran but I know he's making 17-18M a year for 08, 09, 10, 11, I don't exactly think that's what the Rockies are looking for.. No way they would take Abreu either but it's at least a comparable package

b_joseph
07-16-08, 04:46 PM
1 player in the Minors is off limits for me...

Montero.

Now, other players would be ok, IMO, but how they are packaged would change things.

My 1st offer would be... Jackson, Kontos and Nova. They would probably refuse but it would give you an idea on what to change.

YASS
07-16-08, 05:10 PM
not that i disagree with your point, but why wouldnt they offer abreu arbitration?


you dont think he will get some multi year extensions offers for over 16 mil?
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think Abreu is going to be much in demand over the winter. Unless they're reasonably sure he'll get solid multi-year offers, they won't offer arb.

Abreu is barely above average offensively these days and has all the earmarks of a hitter in decline, IMHO. I don't think clubs are going to be busting doors down to obtain a premium-price corner outfielder in his mid-30s who has performed somewhat poorly defensively.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 05:14 PM
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think Abreu is going to be much in demand over the winter. Unless they're reasonably sure he'll get solid multi-year offers, they won't offer arb.

Abreu is barely above average offensively these days and has all the earmarks of a hitter in decline, IMHO. I don't think clubs are going to be busting doors down to obtain a premium-price corner outfielder in his mid-30s who has performed somewhat poorly defensively.

What do the Yanks have to lose by offering arb though? It's not as if there is a replacement in the wings. Worst case scenario is that he accepts and they have him play RF for one season making anywhere from 10-16m. Not such a downside.

Bobby is a self-proclaimed second half player. Let's see what he does for his FA value within the coming months. I do think there will be a multi-year offer out there unless he falls off the face of the earth in the second half.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 05:16 PM
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think Abreu is going to be much in demand over the winter. Unless they're reasonably sure he'll get solid multi-year offers, they won't offer arb.

Abreu is barely above average offensively these days and has all the earmarks of a hitter in decline, IMHO. I don't think clubs are going to be busting doors down to obtain a premium-price corner outfielder in his mid-30s who has performed somewhat poorly defensively.
Good points but Abreu might very well be the best RF option in a weak FA class. Scarcity can drive demand and during FA signings every GM thinks they are a contender or if the cards fall right at least in the wild card hunt.

Decline, age and injury didn't stop the Tigers from getting Shefield and extending him or the Dodgers sinking $36M into A Jones.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 05:18 PM
What do the Yanks have to lose by offering arb though? It's not as if there is a replacement in the wings. Worst case scenario is that he accepts and they have him play RF for one season making anywhere from 10-16m. Not such a downside.

Bobby is a self-proclaimed second half player. Let's see what he does for his FA value within the coming months. I do think there will be a multi-year offer out there unless he falls off the face of the earth in the second half.
I think he was saying Colorado wouldn't risk it if they took Abreu as part of a Holliday deal. The Yanks will offer Abreu arbitration and probably nothing more.

YASS
07-16-08, 05:18 PM
What do the Yanks have to lose by offering arb though? It's not as if there is a replacement in the wings. Worst case scenario is that he accepts and they have him play RF for one season making anywhere from 10-16m. Not such a downside.

Bobby is a self-proclaimed second half player. Let's see what he does for his FA value within the coming months. I do think there will be a multi-year offer out there unless he falls off the face of the earth in the second half.
I haven't really thought much about whether the Yankees should offer him arbitration. I was talking only about what might happen if he were traded to Colorado.

But, clearly, it's a much smaller risk for the Yankees. If he accepts arbitration, they overpay for one more year, but they don't lose an ounce of financial flexibility, because they've got sufficient reserve spending ability.

If Colorado gets stuck paying too much for him next year, they've still got to live within their budget, and something else will have to be cut.

themgmt
07-16-08, 05:19 PM
That's just it, though. They're spending money to acquire Abreu when he is of no value to them. This isn't the NBA where expiring contracts are useful to obtain cap space. Abreu costs more than Holliday this year, and next year he's gone (and without picks, too, since Colorado would never risk offering him arbitration).

And without Abreu, the proposed deal is simply two prospects whose stock has nosedived for an established star with another year to go on his contract.

Colorado would be foolish to make that deal.

They're spending even more money for Beltran for another 3.5 years. If they'd pay Beltran 18M a year for 3.5 years why wouldn't they just ante up and pay Holliday for 5 year extension at 18M? They only gave Holliday a 2 year extension at 23M when he was 25.. it wouldn't make sense to pay Beltran 18M for 4 years when he's 31 and the inferior hitter.

They wouldn't offer Abreu arbitration, he's just so they don't have to field an AAA team for the rest of the year. They wouldn't do either deal. They want the young talent.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 05:20 PM
I haven't really thought much about whether the Yankees should offer him arbitration. I was talking only about what might happen if he were traded to Colorado.

But, clearly, it's a much smaller risk for the Yankees. If he accepts arbitration, they overpay for one more year, but they don't lose an ounce of financial flexibility, because they've got sufficient reserve spending ability.

If Colorado gets stuck paying too much for him next year, they've still got to live within their budget, and something else will have to be cut.

Sorry, I didn't realize you were referring to the Rox offering him arb.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 05:22 PM
They're spending even more money for Beltran for another 3.5 years. If they'd pay Beltran 18M a year for 3.5 years why wouldn't they just ante up and pay Holliday for 5 year extension at 18M? They only gave Holliday a 2 year extension at 23M when he was 25.. it wouldn't make sense to pay Beltran 18M for 4 years when he's 31 and the inferior hitter
The two year deal covered Holliday's final two arb years.

Colorado wanted to do a 4-year $60M deal with him which would have covered final 2 arb years + 2 years of FA.

He wanted more years. Something along the lines of the 9 year deal Helton got but said he could be flixible on years and dollars but that 4 years wasn't going to cut.

YASS
07-16-08, 05:23 PM
Good points but Abreu might very well be the best RF option in a weak FA class. Scarcity can drive demand and during FA signings every GM thinks they are a contender or if the cards fall right at least in the wild card hunt.

Decline, age and injury didn't stop the Tigers from getting Shefield and extending him or the Dodgers sinking $36M into A Jones.
Good examples, but those two clubs happen to be among the lucky franchises with resources that allow them some leeway to make costly mistakes. I don't think Colorado is in that class.

I'm not making any hard predictions, because I'm often surprised by the deals some clubs hand out, but if I'm O'Dowd, I would certainly be wary of offering arbitration to Abreu.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 05:24 PM
Let's stop this Abreu talk. There is no chance in hell that the Rockies would want Abreu back in a package for Holliday.

themgmt
07-16-08, 05:26 PM
The two year deal covered Holliday's final two arb years.

Colorado wanted to do a 4-year $60M deal with him which would have covered final 2 arb years + 2 years of FA.

He wanted more years. Something along the lines of the 9 year deal Helton got but said he could be flixible on years and dollars but that 4 years wasn't going to cut.

Right, that is the point. If they weren't willing to do that for a young Holliday, why would they do that for Beltran who is 6 years older than Holliday was, who makes 18M/year, and is not as good as Holliday at this point? It just doesn't make sense.

bmxstreetrider86
07-16-08, 05:27 PM
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think Abreu is going to be much in demand over the winter. Unless they're reasonably sure he'll get solid multi-year offers, they won't offer arb.

Abreu is barely above average offensively these days and has all the earmarks of a hitter in decline, IMHO. I don't think clubs are going to be busting doors down to obtain a premium-price corner outfielder in his mid-30s who has performed somewhat poorly defensively.


beyond going into the fact that there is still ~half a season left for improvement i find it hard to believe that no one would be interested in him for ~16 mil. a


3 year deal at 5 per year is almost the same amount. its pretty hard to envision him not signing on somewhere for that much, especially if he can pull his numbers up to an .800 OPS

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 05:32 PM
Good examples, but those two clubs happen to be among the lucky franchises with resources that allow them some leeway to make costly mistakes. I don't think Colorado is in that class.

I'm not making any hard predictions, because I'm often surprised by the deals some clubs hand out, but if I'm O'Dowd, I would certainly be wary of offering arbitration to Abreu.
Yeah I think Abreu makes about zero sense for Colorado and would not expect them to be taking him in a deal for Holliday, offering him arbitration or making a play for him in FA. I was just using those other two as examples of GMs throwing around crazy money for older players and they aren't the only two. I think there will be demand for Abreu next year on a 2-3 deal but not sure from whom.

I think the Yanks would be happy to take abreu back on a one year arb deal but not longer and if he walks, they'll be statisied with the compensation pick(s). I'm assuming he'll be type-A so NYY would get sandwich pick plus 1st or 2nd rounder depending on which team signed him.

tangent -
I always wondered what happens if a team signs multiple type-A FA's say for example the Yanks just go totally nuts and sign CC, Sheets, Tex & Fuentes and all turn out to be type-A. how would that effect Mil (2), Atl & Col? It won't happen but I use it as a "what if example".

YASS
07-16-08, 05:33 PM
They're spending even more money for Beltran for another 3.5 years. If they'd pay Beltran 18M a year for 3.5 years why wouldn't they just ante up and pay Holliday for 5 year extension at 18M? They only gave Holliday a 2 year extension at 23M when he was 25.. it wouldn't make sense to pay Beltran 18M for 4 years when he's 31 and the inferior hitter.

They wouldn't offer Abreu arbitration, he's just so they don't have to field an AAA team for the rest of the year. They wouldn't do either deal. They want the young talent.
Didn't I say in a previous post that I don't believe the rumors about the proposed deal with the Mets? I agree that Beltran doesn't make perfect sense for the Rockies, even if they're getting F-Mart in the deal, but I think it makes more sense than the Abreu deal.

The comparison to look at is Beltran+F-Mart for ~$19M vs. Holliday at ~$18M. I think Holliday outproduces Beltran alone over the next 5 years (barring injury, of course), but it's hard for me to put a value on Martinez. What'll his value be in 3 years? In 5?

YASS
07-16-08, 05:36 PM
beyond going into the fact that there is still ~half a season left for improvement i find it hard to believe that no one would be interested in him for ~16 mil. a


3 year deal at 5 per year is almost the same amount. its pretty hard to envision him not signing on somewhere for that much, especially if he can pull his numbers up to an .800 OPS
You think Abreu would rather go for 3yrs/$15 than take his chances with arbitration? Why would he do such a thing? He'll likely make something near $15M for a single year if takes arbitration.

Am I misunderstanding you?

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 05:38 PM
You think Abreu would rather go for 3yrs/$15 than take his chances with arbitration? Why would he do such a thing? He'll likely make something near $15M for a single year if takes arbitration.

Am I misunderstanding you?

Again, Mr.mxyslspk (sp?) here has posted a few times that the Arbitration rules do not apply to free agents. Abreu will not make $15M in arb.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 05:41 PM
Right, that is the point. If they weren't willing to do that for a young Holliday, why would they do that for Beltran who is 6 years older than Holliday was, who makes 18M/year, and is not as good as Holliday at this point? It just doesn't make sense.
Beltran playes a more premium position and would be signed through 2011 like they wanted on Holliday.
They would get F-mart a highly rated prospect who is club controlled for 6 years.
They would divest themselves of Tevares.

I don't think the deal makes sense for either team, especially the Mets but hey it makes more sense than Abreu.

YASS
07-16-08, 05:44 PM
Again, Mr.mxyslspk (sp?) here has posted a few times that the Arbitration rules do not apply to free agents. Abreu will not make $15M in arb.
I think he'll take a pay cut, but that it won't be huge. The rules of arbitration allow pay cuts of any size, but, as a practical matter, I don't expect clubs to make an offer too far below last year's salary.

Suppose a club comes in with a lowball offer and the player comes in with an arb number slightly below the AAV of his last contract. If that player is still putting up decent numbers (declining, but still respectable), which number is the arbitrator going to choose?

Clubs have to be very careful with arbitration cases. If they overreach, they could get seriously burned.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 05:45 PM
Again, Mr.mxyslspk (sp?) here has posted a few times that the Arbitration rules do not apply to free agents. Abreu will not make $15M in arb.
I'm still waiting for someone to post even one example in the history of arbitration where a player has had his salary cut by more than 20%. Yes I know in theory it can be done, but in practice it isn't likely to happen. I really don't see him getting less than $13M if it goes to arbitration.

themgmt
07-16-08, 05:45 PM
Actually my initial post said to take Tavares out of the proposed deal and the package I presented would be equivalent, so the comparison is

Beltran + Martinez ~ Abreu + Horne + Tabata

Those packages are comparable in terms of value to the Rockies


Abreu makes no sense, Beltran makes less sense. But I was just going off of the proposed trade, stating that wouldn't actually be a bad sign if they were willing to take those two Mets for Holliday.

THEBOSS84
07-16-08, 05:48 PM
I'm still waiting for someone to post even one example in the history of arbitration where a player has had his salary cut by more than 20%. Yes I know in theory it can be done, but in practice it isn't likely to happen. I really don't see him getting less than $13M if it goes to arbitration.

Maybe not, but I don't see any way that arbitration with the Yanks will be the best offer he gets this offseason, assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff in the second half.

themgmt
07-16-08, 05:50 PM
Beltran playes a more premium position and would be signed through 2011 like they wanted on Holliday.
They would get F-mart a highly rated prospect who is club controlled for 6 years.
They would divest themselves of Tevares.

I don't think the deal makes sense for either team, especially the Mets but hey it makes more sense than Abreu.


If you do the math, taking on Beltran would be the equivalent of offering Holliday a 6 year/96M (16M/year), which they weren't willing to do. Tavares makes no money, they would only be giving him to the Mets so they have someone to play CF.


If they don't want to pay Holliday, they most certainly would rather not pay the lesser player in Beltran.

Yankee Tripper
07-16-08, 05:51 PM
Actually my initial post said to take Tavares out of the proposed deal and the package I presented would be equivalent, so the comparison is

Beltran + Martinez ~ Abreu + Horne + Tabata

Those packages are comparable in terms of value to the Rockies


Abreu makes no sense, Beltran makes less sense. But I was just going off of the proposed trade, stating that wouldn't actually be a bad sign if they were willing to take those two Mets for Holliday.
Holliday age 28
Beltran age 31 plays GG CF defense and still puts up an OPS+ over 125
Abreu age 34 sub-par right fielder whose OPS+ is declining and below 110

F-mart is a rising prospect or at least one whose stock hasn't dropped. Horne has been injured and ineffective this year, Tabata's stock is at a all time low with questions now about both his power and his work ethic.

How can you possibly say these are "comparable"?

YASS
07-16-08, 05:55 PM
Actually my initial post said to take Tavares out of the proposed deal and the package I presented would be equivalent, so the comparison is

Beltran + Martinez ~ Abreu + Horne + Tabata

Those packages are comparable in terms of value to the Rockies


Abreu makes no sense, Beltran makes less sense. But I was just going off of the proposed trade, stating that wouldn't actually be a bad sign if they were willing to take those two Mets for Holliday.
I disagree those packages are comparable in terms of value, though, for two reasons:

At this point in time, I think Martinez has more value than the Horne/Tabata prospect package. That may not be true forever, but I think it's true right now.
Beltran is a better player than Abreu and he's signed through '11. Abreu is strictly a rental. Beltran costs more and that diminishes his value to the Rockies, but he gives the Rox a medium-term outfield solution for about what they'd have to pay to keep Holliday, plus they get whatever F-Mart turns out to be. If he develops into an all-star caliber player, they win. If he doesn't, they lose.

I still think the Mets package doesn't give the Rox what they're looking for, but I think it comes closer than the package you proposed.

themgmt
07-16-08, 06:04 PM
Holliday age 28
Beltran age 31 plays GG CF defense and still puts up an OPS+ over 125
Abreu age 34 sub-par right fielder whose OPS+ is declining and below 110

F-mart is a rising prospect or at least one whose stock hasn't dropped. Horne has been injured and ineffective this year, Tabata's stock is at a all time low with questions now about both his power and his work ethic.

How can you possibly say these are "comparable"?

Because
1) Outside of last April/May and the last 6 weeks of this season, Abreu has been a better hitter in his career than Beltran.. though Beltran is currently outperforming him

2) He would be an above average LF with an elite LF arm (I know) to replace Holliday for the remainder of the year.

3) They won't have to pay Abreu 18M for 3.5 years

4) Abreu may be 34, they'll have to deal with that for 2 months at 5M, They'll deal with Beltran at 34 for a whole season at 18M

5) Jose Tabata is 19 with a ton of potential, maybe not the same tier as Martinez but not too far behind with more speed and better defense. Neither is showing much power so that is moot

6) They get a decent pitching prospect as well to balance it out



If you weigh it out it's really 60M + Horne/Tabata vs. Beltran + Martinez. Given it's the Rockies and not the Red Sox or Yankees we're talking about, I don't see how they would want Beltran's contract. I think the packages are comparable, to each his own

themgmt
07-16-08, 06:23 PM
Beltran is a better player than Abreu and he's signed through '11. Abreu is strictly a rental. Beltran costs more and that diminishes his value to the Rockies, but he gives the Rox a medium-term outfield solution for about what they'd have to pay to keep Holliday, plus they get whatever F-Mart turns out to be. If he develops into an all-star caliber player, they win. If he doesn't, they lose.I still think the Mets package doesn't give the Rox what they're looking for, but I think it comes closer than the package you proposed.

See that's exactly the point though, they could have kept Holliday for less than what they'll pay Beltran. Holliday is also 3 years younger, and a flat out better hitter. They could't afford Holliday so why would they trade Holliday and still have an even bigger contract on tap for even longer?

Abreu would be a serviceable LF replacement for the duration of the year, then he is gone and they are free of massive contracts, which is the reason they are trading Holliday in the first place. They can't afford a massive contract, might as well get something in return. Especially since they don't know when they'll be contending again


In this deal:
5.3M (Abreu) >>>>>>>>>>>> 60M (Beltran)
Martinez ~>~ Horne+Tabata

YASS
07-16-08, 06:55 PM
See that's exactly the point though, they could have kept Holliday for less than what they'll pay Beltran. Holliday is also 3 years younger, and a flat out better hitter. They could't afford Holliday so why would they trade Holliday and still have an even bigger contract on tap for even longer?

Abreu would be a serviceable LF replacement for the duration of the year, then he is gone and they are free of massive contracts, which is the reason they are trading Holliday in the first place. They can't afford a massive contract, might as well get something in return. Especially since they don't know when they'll be contending again


In this deal:
5.3M (Abreu) >>>>>>>>>>>> 60M (Beltran)
Martinez ~>~ Horne+Tabata
The only reason they might consider it is if they think Martinez is an elite prospect with a strong chance to be an all-star. If they don't think so, they don't give this proposal a second thought.

But if they do believe Martinez is going to be an all-star, then Beltran + Martinez for ~$19M might be worth as much or more to them than Holliday at ~$18M. I'm not saying they believe this, because I don't know how they value these players.

Right now, I don't believe that Horne + Tabata is equal in value to Martinez.

Let me take Colorado out of the equation and ask a different question: Would you trade Abreu/Horne/Tabata straight up for Beltran/Martinez?

themgmt
07-16-08, 07:56 PM
If I'm the Rockies, no, because I wouldn't want Beltran's contract. If I'm the Yankees, of course. The better question would be, if I had Holliday and couldn't afford him, would I trade for Beltran/Martinez or Abreu/Horne/Tabata. I'm certainly not going to pay 18M a year for 4 years just to see if Martinez pans out. On the other hand, I would consider trading Horne+Tabata for Martinez but I'm not even so sure of that.

YASS
07-16-08, 08:01 PM
If I'm the Rockies, no, because I wouldn't want Beltran's contract. If I'm the Yankees, of course. The better question would be, if I had Holliday and couldn't afford him, would I trade for Beltran/Martinez or Abreu/Horne/Tabata. I'm certainly not going to pay 18M a year for 4 years just to see if Martinez pans out
Well, baseball is risky, and Colorado would certainly be sticking their necks out to some degree, but if Martinez doesn't turn out to be what they expected him to be, at least they'd still have a solid outfielder under lock for three more years, even though they're paying more than he's worth. They lose, but they don't lose catastrophically. The Abreu/Horne/Tabata deal is even more risky, IMO. If Abreu walks after 3 months and neither Horne nor Tabata pan out, the Rox wind up with nothing for their tough-to-sign star.

Good discussion, btw.

themgmt
07-16-08, 08:32 PM
It is more risky in terms of guaranteed years of ML service but far less costly. For a team like the Rockies, I think they'd lean towards the least costly avenue. Horne/Tabata gives them 2 chances that one of them helps out on the ML level. Fernando may be more highly regarded but you still never know. If it was a straight up prospect deal I'd start with the Martinez centered package over a Tabata centered package just given that Martinez has a better build.

yank4life2005
07-16-08, 08:39 PM
Kennedy, Sanchez, Cabrera, Melancon

for

Holliday & Fuentes

JL25and3
07-16-08, 08:49 PM
Kennedy, Sanchez, Cabrera, Melancon

for

Holliday & FuentesThat would be highway robbery.

yank4life2005
07-16-08, 08:54 PM
That would be highway robbery.

Kick in Montero & Tabata.

Prison Mike
07-16-08, 08:57 PM
Kennedy, Sanchez, Cabrera, Melancon

for

Holliday & Fuentes

If you sub in Montero for Melancon, take out Fuentes, and they might bite. Maybe.

Nah, probably not.

yank4life2005
07-16-08, 09:04 PM
From all of the rumors out there the Rockies due like Sanchez/Melancon/Kennedy in a deal for Fuentes.

R.V.47
07-16-08, 09:06 PM
From all of the rumors out there the Rockies due like Sanchez/Melancon/Kennedy in a deal for Fuentes.

Id like to hold on to one of either Sanchez or Melancon even though I think Fuentes fills a big hole on this team. I wonder if the Rockies will try to package Holliday and Fuentes to really try and break the bank here.

yank4life2005
07-16-08, 09:10 PM
Id like to hold on to one of either Sanchez or Melancon even though I think Fuentes fills a big hole on this team. I wonder if the Rockies will try to package Holliday and Fuentes to really try and break the bank here.

Yankees really could use both and Holliday could replace Abreu in RF next season.

bmxstreetrider86
07-16-08, 09:19 PM
You think Abreu would rather go for 3yrs/$15 than take his chances with arbitration? Why would he do such a thing? He'll likely make something near $15M for a single year if takes arbitration.

Am I misunderstanding you?


yes, security plays into a factor.


an i think that the 3 years 15 mil is just a floor. if i had to guess (assuming he gets back to ~.800 OPS) id say 3 years at 7 mil would likely be offered by a number of suitors, maybe even more

27IsNext
07-16-08, 09:41 PM
Yankees really could use both and Holliday could replace Abreu in RF next season.

Fuentes has already said he wants to close and that he can't get himself as "revved up" when he comes into a non-save situation. He would be gone after this season and we'd lose either Melancon or Sanchez for a three-month rental. No thanks.

Brick Tamland
07-16-08, 09:48 PM
Fuentes has already said he wants to close and that he can't get himself as "revved up" when he comes into a non-save situation. He would be gone after this season and we'd lose either Melancon or Sanchez for a three-month rental. No thanks.

If it nets Holliday (which it won't) then I'm all for it.

yank4life2005
07-16-08, 09:51 PM
Fuentes has already said he wants to close and that he can't get himself as "revved up" when he comes into a non-save situation. He would be gone after this season and we'd lose either Melancon or Sanchez for a three-month rental. No thanks.

I have also read he would like to be a Yankee. Trade for him and then lock him up for 3 years.

siddiqi
07-17-08, 12:16 AM
From all of the rumors out there the Rockies due like Sanchez/Melancon/Kennedy in a deal for Fuentes.
Wow, where do I sign up for that. If this happens it would be a great trade for us, it would be less than the Braves gave up to get Tex and the other BP guy they got in that deal last year.

Brick Tamland
07-17-08, 08:46 AM
Wow, where do I sign up for that. If this happens it would be a great trade for us, it would be less than the Braves gave up to get Tex and the other BP guy they got in that deal last year.


Really? I don't know, the bullpen has been so strong this season, I don't think they need to add another arm even if it is a lefty.

Holliday is the only guy I am interested in on the Rockies. If Fuentes ends up being a part of that deal, hey I won't be cryin', but the only real target for me on Colorado is that big bat in LF.

ppa79
07-17-08, 09:33 AM
Wow, where do I sign up for that. If this happens it would be a great trade for us, it would be less than the Braves gave up to get Tex and the other BP guy they got in that deal last year.

I'm assuming that deal also includes Holliday. In addition, we get a window to sign him long term.

Brick Tamland
07-17-08, 09:36 AM
Garbage deal for the Rockies. You are talking about trading significant pieces from the farm, both pitching and everyday players to get Holliday.

YASS
07-17-08, 09:49 AM
I'm assuming that deal also includes Holliday. In addition, we get a window to sign him long term.
Seriously?

If you could get both Holliday and Fuentes for Sanchez, Melancon, and Kennedy (and, of course, you can't), you wouldn't pull the trigger unless you get a negotiation window, too?

Seriously?

webassign
07-17-08, 09:51 AM
Seriously?

If you could get both Holliday and Fuentes for Sanchez, Melancon, and Kennedy (and, of course, you can't), you wouldn't pull the trigger unless you get a negotiation window, too?

Seriously?
Yankees fans lol

ppa79
07-17-08, 09:52 AM
Seriously?

If you could get both Holliday and Fuentes for Sanchez, Melancon, and Kennedy (and, of course, you can't), you wouldn't pull the trigger unless you get a negotiation window, too?

Seriously?

Doug Melvin is that you?

Why would I waste 3 prospects if he is gonna walk away from us. Doesn't sound too wise to me. If I'm gonna give up 3 pretty good prospects, I want him signed long term.

THEBOSS84
07-17-08, 09:54 AM
Doug Melvin is that you?

Why would I waste 3 prospects if he is gonna walk away from us. Doesn't sound too wise to me. If I'm gonna give up 3 pretty good prospects, I want him signed long term.

That package would not even come close to netting us Holliday alone.

There will be no negotiation window for Holliday. It's a chance you have to take when trading for him.

YASS
07-17-08, 09:55 AM
Doug Melvin is that you?

Why would I waste 3 prospects if he is gonna walk away from us. Doesn't sound too wise to me. If I'm gonna give up 3 pretty good prospects, I want him signed long term.

He's already signed through '09, so it's not a three month rental.
You're getting him practically for free -- neither of the three prospects you're willing to give up for two established major leaguers (one of whom is a bonafide star-in-his-prime) have done anything yet.


I mean, it's moot, because that deal wouldn't happen in a thousand years, but ...

Brick Tamland
07-17-08, 09:56 AM
Doug Melvin is that you?

Why would I waste 3 prospects if he is gonna walk away from us. Doesn't sound too wise to me. If I'm gonna give up 3 pretty good prospects, I want him signed long term.

I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat if there were a chance in hell this offer would be acceptable. Window or no window, you have the guy for another year and half and your're really only giving up three "nice" prospects.

ppa79
07-17-08, 09:56 AM
That package would not even come close to netting us Holliday alone.

There will be no negotiation window for Holliday. It's a chance you have to take when trading for him.

Then I don't want him. There is no point of trading good prospects for someone if he can't be part of the future.

The Mets didn't take a chance on Santana or did the Tigers with Cabrera. If you are gonna give up good prospects you sign the guy up long term.