PDA

View Full Version : We need a better three hitter than Abreu



bcom33
05-02-08, 02:38 PM
I was reading in the thread about who we want/don’t want on the 2009 Yankees and saw that some people wanted to re-sign Abreu to a 2 year extension depending on where he is at the end of this year. I decided to do some research into how Abreu compares to other number 3 hitters in baseball. Using 2007 stats this is what I have found:


Team Name AVG. OBP. OPS+ HR RBI Better**
NYY Abreu .283 .369 114 16 101 --
BOS Ortiz .332 .445 171 35 117 DEF
BAL Markak .276 .413 121 23 112 YES
TBD Upton .300 .386 136 24 82 DEF
TOR Rios .297 .354 122 24 85 YES
CHW Thome .275 .410 150 35 96 DEF
CLE Hafner .266 .385 118 24 100 YES
DET Sheff .265 .378 120 25 75 YES
MIN Mauer .293 .382 117 7 60 YES
KCR Teahen .285 .353 98 7 60 NO
LAA Vlad .324 .403 147 27 125 DEF
OAK Barton .302* .398 145 5 21 YES
SEA Ibanez .291 .351 121 21 105 YES
TEX Hamiltn .292 .368 131 19 47 YES
PHI Utley .332 .410 145 22 103 DEF
NYM Wright .325 .416 150 30 107 DEF
FLA Hermida .296 .369 125 18 63 YES
ATL Chipper .337 .425 166 29 102 DEF
WSN Zimm .266 .330 107 24 91 NO
STL Pujols .327 .429 157 32 103 DEF
CHC D. Lee .317 .400 131 22 82 DEF
MIL Braun .324 .370 153 34 97 DEF
HOU Berkman .278 .386 131 34 102 DEF
CIN Griffey .277 .372 119 30 93 YES
PIT Bay .247 .327 93 21 84 NO
ARI Hudson .294 .376 106 10 63 NO
LAD Kemp .342 .373 125 10 42 YES
SFG Winn .300 .353 105 14 65 NO
COL Helton .320 .434 133 17 91 DEF
SDP A. Gonz .282 .347 125 30 100 DEF
* Daric Barton’s stats were taken from 2007 and 2008 for a larger sample size
** DEF = definitely, YES = arguably, NO = not

Thus, from these stats…in 2007 Abreu was the 6th worst 3-hitter in baseball. He was the second worst in the entire AL, only beating out Teahen for the Royals. Maybe some of our offensive woes can be attributed to having a number 3 hitter who isn’t good enough to be hitting in the 3 spot for the Yankees. Given that he is usually hitting in front of A-Rod, his stats look even worse.

Soriambi
05-02-08, 02:52 PM
You seem to be addressing two separate questions here:

Is Abreu an adequete #3 hitter, and do we need a better one?

If the answer to the first question is that we need a better one, does that mean that we shouldn't re-sign Abreu?

I don't think the two things are all that connected. Just because Abreu isn't one of the top #3 hitters in the league, based on what you said above, doesn't mean that he can't help somewhere in the lineup. I always think that comparing players directly to other players at their batting order position or rotation spot is not necessarily valid. The best way that I can explain it is this:

Rather than directly comparing your team's #1 to their team's #1, your team's #2 to their team's #2, etc, I think that each pitching rotation and lineup has a total value, which is the cumulative value of all of the players involved. Just because your team is weaker at five out of the nine lineup spots doesn't mean that you're weaker offensively than the other team.

Based on the numbers above, if you had these two teams:

Team A:

1. Bobby Abreu
2. Albert Pujols
3. Albert Pujols
4. Albert Pujols
5. Albert Pujols
6. Bobby Abreu
7. Bobby Abreu
8. Bobby Abreu
9. Bobby Abreu

Team B:

1-9 are B.J. Upton

Based on 2007 numbers, you could make a reasonable case that Team B has a lineup advantage at 5 out of the nine spots, thus "winning" 5-4. I think we'd all agree, however, that pitching and defense being equal, the lineup with four Pujolses and five Abreus would score a lot more runs than a lineup of nine Uptons over the course of a normal season.

Therefore, when we're deciding whether to re-sign him, I think that we need to look at Bobby Abreu as a hitter, rather than at Bobby Abreu as a #3 hitter. The point that Abreu isn't among the best hitters in the league (and that he isn't even close) seems valid enough, and perhaps we should address that, but I still think that he adds a lot to a teams' total value.

THEBOSS84
05-02-08, 02:55 PM
I definitely do not think that we should re-sign Abreu. Mark Tex is the obvious 3-hole replacement.

bcom33
05-02-08, 02:55 PM
Yes, I agree with your reasoning. I don't necessarily mean to say that we shouldn't even think about re-signing Abreu. I just think that if we do, it should be to put him in the 2-spot, leadoff, or somewhere further down.

Mainly, this thread was intended to show that Abreu is not your typical number 3 hitter in the major leagues. He lacks the power and productivity that you need to hit third.

Our lineup usually does score a ton of runs in the regular season, however...the middle of our order has been getting exposed in the playoffs. Some of that has to do with Abreu.

bcom33
05-02-08, 02:56 PM
I definitely do not think that we should re-sign Abreu. Mark Tex is the obvious 3-hole replacement.

Definitely.

Soriambi
05-02-08, 02:57 PM
Yes, I agree with your reasoning. I don't necessarily mean to say that we shouldn't even think about re-signing Abreu. I just think that if we do, it should be to put him in the 2-spot or have him hit leadoff.

Mainly, this thread was intended to show that Abreu is not your typical number 3 hitter in the major leagues. He lacks the power and productivity that you need to hit third.

Our lineup usually does score a ton of runs in the regular season, however...the middle of our order has been getting exposed in the playoffs. Some of that has to do with Abreu.

Ah, okay. When you mentioned that some people are thinking about signing him to an extension, I thought you were saying that we shouldn't because he wasn't as good as other 3 hitters.

Plus, I like making that argument as much as I can because I see tons of people comparing lineups and pitching rotations by comparing each player to their "counterpart" and I don't think that's the best way to compare teams. :lol:

R.V.47
05-02-08, 03:57 PM
Abreu is a great 3 hitter when he has A-Rod behind him picking up the slack as far as power numbers go but without A-Rod a lot more responsibility falls on him and he hasnt really picked it up.

TheYankee
05-02-08, 05:23 PM
Bobby Abreu is around #399 on my top 400 list of Yankee problems.

JavyVazquezIsSick
05-02-08, 05:28 PM
Yeah, we should pick up Pujols off waivers.

TheYankee
05-02-08, 05:29 PM
Yeah, we should pick up Pujols off waivers.Not only that, we should hire you as the next GM for thinking this brilliant plan up.

cupcollector99
05-02-08, 05:37 PM
In addition to a #3, the Yankees could use a #1 hitter, a 4 hitter, a 5 hitter....

bcom33
05-02-08, 06:12 PM
Bobby Abreu is around #399 on my top 400 list of Yankee problems.

I felt that all other complaints were being covered...lol :D

surge511
05-02-08, 07:37 PM
If the Yankees sign Teixeira, we won't need Abreu as much. Tex could go in the middle of the lineup, and we could get one of the kids in RF, assuming at least one of them is ready to come up. Abreu and Tex in the lineup would be killer, though.

BennyTheJetRodriguez
05-02-08, 07:41 PM
Abreu
Jeter
Matsui
A-Rod
Posada
Cano
Giambi
Melky
Damon

once everyone is healthy of course. won't happen though. Damon is fast so he has to get the most ABs on the team regardless of how often he gets out or on base

Prison Mike
05-02-08, 08:07 PM
Seriously- the person we should be worrying about least is Abreu.

yankeebot
05-02-08, 08:11 PM
Seriously- the person we should be worrying about least is Abreu. I don't understand this sentiment. It's not as if any of our worries actually have any bearing on what happens on the field and it's not as if there is some limit as to how many players we have the capacity to worry about. I can worry about the rotation, Giambi, Cano, Arod, Posada, etc etc etc and still have time to worry about Abreu. :dunno:

YankeePride1967
05-02-08, 08:13 PM
By bringing Abreu back, there is no law saying we have to bat him third. How about fifth? Of course cost and length of the deal are factors in the decision.

Zimmer's Helmet
05-03-08, 10:03 AM
Robinson Cano will make a good #3 hitter once he rediscovers his swing again.

apalradio
05-03-08, 10:27 AM
It would be fun to see ARod hit 3rd (when he's healthy again), and have a killer bat hitting cleanup. Abreu is really better suited to hit somewhere else in the order. He's fine, but far from the best overall hitter on our team, which is an ideal spot for the number three guy.

Abe Frohman
05-03-08, 11:16 AM
Robbie Cano, when he comes back to earth, will be our ideal 3 hitter in the future ...

Blazer
05-03-08, 11:46 AM
Abreu is probably best suited to hit 2nd or even leadoff.

ObscurePlayer
05-03-08, 03:19 PM
The problem I see with the comparison between Abreu and the other 3-hole hitters is that they are only based on last year's numbers, and Abreu was uncharacteristically hideous at the plate for half the year in 2007.

Obviously he doesn't compare favorably with guys like Ortiz, Vlad, and Pujols because those guys are real animals. But I don't think he's getting a fair shake in this comparison.

bcom33
05-03-08, 08:22 PM
The problem I see with the comparison between Abreu and the other 3-hole hitters is that they are only based on last year's numbers, and Abreu was uncharacteristically hideous at the plate for half the year in 2007.

Obviously he doesn't compare favorably with guys like Ortiz, Vlad, and Pujols because those guys are real animals. But I don't think he's getting a fair shake in this comparison.

yeah, i definitely thought of that when I made the comparison. His 2007 numbers were pretty terrible compared to his career averages. However, all of his numbers since he came to NY have been terrible compared to his career averages.

themgmt
05-04-08, 09:41 PM
yeah, i definitely thought of that when I made the comparison. His 2007 numbers were pretty terrible compared to his career averages. However, all of his numbers since he came to NY have been terrible compared to his career averages.

?????? Abreu was a beast in 2006. He hit like .340 with a .420 OBP and .930 OPS with the Yankees.

MaximMan121
05-04-08, 09:56 PM
I definitely do not think that we should re-sign Abreu. Mark Tex is the obvious 3-hole replacement.

Abreu will also certainly be a type A FA, which makes the choice easier.

ArodMVP217
05-05-08, 09:38 AM
yea^^^ move arod to 3rd and get a mystery switch hitting first baseman with power 4th, Sui 5th

abreu leadoff anyone??

bigjf
05-05-08, 02:02 PM
Ideally, I'd like Abreu back for 2 years (maybe a 3rd option year) and sign Teixeira as well. Abreu can still hit in my lineup anytime.

THEBOSS84
05-05-08, 02:08 PM
Abreu will also certainly be a type A FA, which makes the choice easier.

It'll be nice if we end up with a better first rounder than the one we surrender.

Yankees13
05-05-08, 02:51 PM
I think Abreu in the 3 hole does reflect a real problem with the Yankee lineup. There's a huge drop-off after A-Rod, there's no 2nd big time hitter in the lineup. Posada was last year, but I don't think we can expect that going forward. It's a problem that needs to be addressed.

Tehasguard
05-06-08, 02:22 AM
I think Abreu in the 3 hole does reflect a real problem with the Yankee lineup. There's a huge drop-off after A-Rod, there's no 2nd big time hitter in the lineup. Posada was last year, but I don't think we can expect that going forward. It's a problem that needs to be addressed.

you mean, after Matsui....

Yankees13
05-06-08, 09:10 AM
you mean, after Matsui....
If you want to assess the lineup based on 33 games, I guess so.

Tehasguard
05-06-08, 01:48 PM
If you want to assess the lineup based on 33 games, I guess so.


are you kidding?

100 runs, 300 ba, 100 rbi, 175 hits, 25 homers on average per year...

zombo
05-06-08, 03:59 PM
i think the lineup is fine. they've had a lot of injuries and still managed to be fairly productive, even better after a-rod's injury, which is weird. the real problem is starting pitching after wang, pettitte, and mussina. wow, surprised i'm saying that since i've felt mussina was always a scrub.

Bern51
05-06-08, 04:32 PM
i've felt mussina was always a scrub.

Always as in his whole career?

Yankees13
05-06-08, 06:28 PM
are you kidding?

100 runs, 300 ba, 100 rbi, 175 hits, 25 homers on average per year...
Well, first of all, I thought you were saying that the dropoff in the lineup is after Matsui, not A-Rod. Secondly, he's only had one year where he's been an elite producer, he's a nice hitter, but he's not acceptable protection for A-Rod.