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Lucen
02-26-07, 03:21 PM
This is a very interesting topic to me. I thought I'd see if it would have any legs here standing on it's own as a thread. I'll paste the graphic from the untiltered article at BP, but not the entire article. Of note, the Yankees and Red Sox both fall in the "old" half of the graph, but the Yanks trend toward getting younger while the Sox are actually still trending toward getting older.

There has been some discussion in the past, and it seems the conventional wisdom has been that the Sox are doing a better job of getting younger, but this might not be the case. It's also interesting to note how much of an outlier Florida is in the "young and getting younger" quadrant.

Here's the graph:

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h265/Lucen/BPAge2006.jpg

https://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/

Despite the free agent signings over the last few years, the Dodgers are trending towards getting younger, Seattle is trending toward getting younger faster than any team in the majors, and it appears that the Angels are in remarkably good shape, being just under the normalized league average age and getting younger faster than anyone but Seattle. Considering they're also one off the best teams in the AL, I'd say the Angels stand a good chance of being a top team in the league for quite a few more years. They could be looking at the start of a long run of success.

I'm sure a lot of the discussion will revolved around the Sox and Yanks in this graph, which would be fine. But there are some very interesting trends shown here all around the league.

simmy886
02-26-07, 03:27 PM
Very interesting, but how telling is this? I mean getting younger sounds good, but at what expense. I agree about the Angels being in great shape, but personally I think the Twins with Liriano, Mauer, Morneau, Garza have the best chance of being good and contending for a long time, because they are getting younger in the right places and also vastly improving while getting younger, 2 of several things not indicated by this graph. It's very interesting to note general trends though thank you for posting.

Lucen
02-26-07, 03:39 PM
I agree that this isn't an all encompassing graph. You have to bring in your own knowledge of MLB before you can start making predictions. I agree that the Twins might be in better shape than the Angels, but the Angels aren't too far behind. Jered Weaver, Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhardt, Erick Ayabar, Ervin Santana, Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, Casey Kotchman, Juan Rivera, Fransisco Rodriguez, and Scott Shields form a very solid young core of players going forward. They also have some promising prospects who still aren't very close to the majors which very well might help out in a few years.

We're kind of splitting hairs here, though. Both teams could be very good for a long time. :)

SecretChiSoxFan
02-27-07, 11:45 AM
I'd like to see this chart for starting pitching only and try to draw some conclusions there.

And I typically try to eliminate the Yankees and Red Sox from any of these types equations for analysis purposes because they tend to spend so much more than everyone else. They are in their own category, they can throw off any analysis.

Jasbro
02-27-07, 12:00 PM
And I typically try to eliminate the Yankees and Red Sox from any of these types equations for analysis purposes because they tend to spend so much more than everyone else. They are in their own category, they can throw off any analysis.

What does spending have to do with examining age trends?

The only connection I can think of off the top of my head is that teams that spend more can afford to be a bit older, because they are obstensibly paying a premium for quality. But this graph doesn't make any conclusions, it only shows a trend. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on this.

Lucen
02-27-07, 12:08 PM
What does spending have to do with examining age trends?

The only connection I can think of off the top of my head is that teams that spend more can afford to be a bit older, because they are obstensibly paying a premium for quality. But this graph doesn't make any conclusions, it only shows a trend. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on this.

He touches on this in the article by mentioning that bigger market teams like the Sox and Yanks are going to be older simply because they can pay that premium and attract more free agents. So money does have an impact here as teams like the Sox and Yanks will likely never get into the young half of the chart... or at least not deep into it.

jimmyclark
02-28-07, 12:24 PM
"We have a kid here named Greg Goossen who is 20 years old and in ten years he has a chance to be 30."-Casey Stengel, 1965

Hughesian
02-28-07, 03:19 PM
Very interesting, but how telling is this? I mean getting younger sounds good, but at what expense. I agree about the Angels being in great shape, but personally I think the Twins with Liriano, Mauer, Morneau, Garza have the best chance of being good and contending for a long time, because they are getting younger in the right places and also vastly improving while getting younger, 2 of several things not indicated by this graph. It's very interesting to note general trends though thank you for posting.

If by long time you mean 6 years, I totally agree with you.